Another Response to a Trader

Tags

Crude Oil, gold, inflation, Interest Rates, oil, PALL, palladium, platinum, PPLT, silver

Here is a recent conversation I had with another trader/stock-talker on Seeking Alpha.

• 

  greenzulu
• April 1 at 3:22pm

• Dear J:

  Just a thought.

  I’m pursuing, on various fronts, the doubling of gasoline prices in a few years. Or sooner. We don’t have an energy crisis but a petroleum distillate crisis; the rise of Asian/India motorized transportation makes it a given.

  The U.S., with its population of high drag/low mileage SUVs, will end up replacing all its cars in five years with low drag/small engine cars. Ford, Honda, Nissan, BMW, and yes, Toyota, will dine out. Hybrids — did you see that HMC sold 10 times hybrid projections? You’re probably too young to remember when the VW Rabbit diesel was the hottest car in America.

  My point: platinum, not gold. They are highly correlated, but platinum will not be a victim of rising bond yields. Every car needs it, and they will sell alot of it. PPLT is the ETF to have, very little downside, unlike gold, which will also rise but is interest-rate sensitive. If rates rise, gold will drop, but consumes will have even less disposable income to fill up their SUVs.

  Cheers,
  GZ

jschulmansr

April 5 at 10:53am

Here Is my Response:

Actually, I am old enough and yes I agree with you on Platinum and also Palladium too! Both will perform very well. If Crude continues and goes for a new test of $100 it may start way sooner than either of us expect. Crude appears to also be breaking out of it’s trading range above $85. Not very far to break $100. The talking heads are simply saying the Oil rise is good sign of growing economy, I think it is the confirmation of the inflation monster that is looming on the horizon. Yes, both Gold and Crude are interest rate sensitive which may restrain the upside somewhat. However when Oil and Precious metals take off I don’t think it will make that big of a difference, except to cause the interest rates to be raised faster to now “dampen” the economy and control inflation. Gold may not correct anymore big test right now to see if the reverse head and shoulders w/wedge will be completed. So if the Precious metals complex starts to rise then I actually will be playing Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium. Thanks for sharing your thoughts with me, I hope we both can help each other to be more profitable in our trading, along with helping other investors too!-jschulmansr

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Response to a Trader – US Dollar Where is it going?

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bernanke, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, Hyper-Inflaion, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, Interest Rates, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, US Dollar Direction, volatility, warrants, XAU

On Seeking Alpha:

I received this question from another trader who contributes on Seeking Alpha

DeFactoTrader

Question:

• Hi, you seem to be bullish on dollar (uup) and bearish on gld at least for the short-mid term … where do you see DXY going? it’s at 82 right now, or uup for that matter?

jschulmansr

My Answer:

// I think US Dollar is going to at least test 85, if it can break that then real potential for 90. UUP short tern $24.25 then $25 and $26 longer term. Currently nobody believes inflation is a threat so the Dollar will rise. As long as the dollar is rising, Bernanke doesn’t have to do anything except maintain. I do feel that in a few months the fundamental will change, when inflation is perceived as a threat, and it will be since we have at least almost quadrupled the money supply (US Dollars). When inflation does start to roar then we will see a rising US Dollar and rising Gold Prices along with rising interest rates. That is also when Gold will go to $2000 to $2500 on next leg of rally. Long term even higher. This of course is based on no unforeseen news events. The other shoe so to speak is the sovereign debt issue. If Europe can fix the situation then the dollar will take a hit. Finally if the credit rating of the US is downgraded then kiss the dollar goodbye and watch Gold really explode. I think for stocks the rally will stall around Dow 11,500 and then have a really nasty retracement. This will once again really shake investor confidence, but for those prepared it will be an opportunity of a lifetime to make money. Thanks for asking!-jschulmansr

Jeffrey S Schulman Sr aka jschulmansr

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Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

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– Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

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Have A Great Afternoon & Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr