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GOLD and SILVER – Is the Bull Exhausted Yet?

05 Tuesday Oct 2010

Posted by jschulmansr in banking crisis, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear market, Bernanke, bonds, bull market, central banks, China, commodities, crash, Credit Default, Crude Oil, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, depression, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Euro, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, GLD, gold, Gold Bubble, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, hard assets, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, inflation, Investing, investments, Japan, Jschulmansr, Latest News, Make Money Investing, market crash, Markets, Moving Averages, oil, Options, PAL, Paladium, PALL, palladium, physical gold, platinum, PPLT, precious, precious metals, price, prices, Quantitative Easing, recession, risk, Risk Reversal, run on banks, silver, SLV, sovereign, Sovereign Debt, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, TARP, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Treasury, U.S., U.S. Dollar, U.S. Government unfunded Debt, U.S. Treasury Dept

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banking crisis, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear, bull, central banks, crash, Currencies, currency, deflation, depression, derivatives, economic trends, economy, Euro, Eurozone, financial futures, FXE, GLD, gold, gold to silver ratio, hyper-inflation, inflation, market, Markets, precious metals, price protection, printing press, QE2, quantitive easing, recession, safety, silver, SLV, SPY, UUP

Maybe…. Depending on who you are talking to. Today’s rally took me a little bit by surprise, thanks to Japan. The market totally shrugged off Moody’s potential downgrade of Irish Banks and Ireland.

The recently released report of the causes of the “Flash Crash”  showed that derivatives actually was one of the major causes of the crash. Well guess what? Right before the collapse of Lehman, and the ensuing crash and crisis; banks were holding all time record levels of derivatives. Currently once again, banks are holding all time record high levels of derivatives!

So today’s rally can be totally attributed to Japan’s central bank. The Japanese Central Bank while slashing interest rates to basically 0%, also announced that they would be buying Japanese assets (Bonds, Reits, Mortgages, Equities), thereby fueling speculation that the Fed would do the same thru QE2 here in the United States.

However, I think it’s about time for a correction in the GLD, SLV, FXE, SPY, UUP.
Looking at the charts this has all of the appearance of an exhaustion gap. Not that I don’t think that we have a real shot a $1500 Spot Gold by the end of this year.

So even though I was stopped out of my GLD puts this morning I am seriously thinking about jumping back in and buying more GLD and SLV puts. I will let you know on stock talks  (Seeking Alpha), when I do.

That being said, I don’t think the correction for GLD and SLV will be more than 5-7% before resuming their march to $1500 (Gold) and $25 (Silver). Another note: I expect Silver to perform even better than Gold. The gold/silver ratio is approximately 60/1, if we see a return to what used to be the norm of 30/1 gold/silver ratio; then Silver could potentially run as high as $35-$50/oz.

Finally, as they do another quantitative easing (QE2) here in the US (currently not official QE), this continues to put pressure on Europe and Japan to devalue their currencies  and keep the printing presses running. Long term this is going to create a very hyper inflationary climate long term. So being the Gold and Precious Metals Perma Bull that I am, I think that you should be buying and stockpiling (bullion, rounds,  coins; as much as you can get; to lock in the value of your money now. Events are truly starting to line up and set the stage for a potential worldwide collapse and depression.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

– Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets.

Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox. Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

Click Here For Your Free Analysis

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

32.083541 -81.099834

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Ahh!… Euphoria – The Sweet Smell of Recovery???

15 Tuesday Sep 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, Bailout News, banking crisis, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear market, Bernanke, bilderbergers, bonds, bull market, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, Currency and Currencies, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, G-20, Geitner, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, hard assets, how to change, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Latest News, majors, Make Money Investing, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, prices, producers, production, recession, S&P 500, silver, silver miners, small caps, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, Technical Analysis, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, Today, Treasury, U.S., U.S. Dollar, U.S. Treasury Dept

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Ahh the sweet smell of recovery! It’s “official Bernanke said so and so did MSNBC. I don’t think we are anywhere close to being out of the woods yet. To many shoes still dropping. Mortgage Resets, Commercial Real Estate, the number of banks failing each month, and the U.S. Dollar; just to name a few. Oops, can’t forget Inflation, oops hyper-inflation. Hey, we haven’t even gotten to the world political climate; i.e. Iran, N. Korea, Israel, and Afghanistan; to name a few more. Where are the contrarians? What happened to astute investing? When is Geitner going to turn off the printing press? When is China going to fire back in the trade war and just say no to one of the next treasury auctions? If that happened for 1-2 auctions how do you think the market will react? Personally, I think we are dead in the eye of the hurricane of economic malestrom. I remember reading early this year this is the exact blueprint of the Bilderberger Plan, allow the stock market to get to pre-crash levels, suck in all the investors back into the market and then pull the plug. I am not wearing a tin foil hat either… research this out for yourself (Google Bilderberger’s and another good source is Alex Jones Infowar site.) I also find it very interesting no news from the latest G-20 meeting. Plus the BRIC countries are very silent, can you imagine if China convinced those countries to side with them in a trade war? Don’t get me wrong I want to be out of the recession too. However, when everyone is saying Buy, it is usually the time to Sell. I think the DJI still has more room 9750 is the first major resistance, next 9850, and then no man’s land at 10,000 and above. I don’t think we will quite get there (DJI 10,000), but since we are in the head building phase of the head and shoulders formation on the charts it could conceivably happen. So since there are some good stocks still out there, due due diligence, keep your stops tight within 10-18%. I know I would rather take 60-80% off the table in profits than ride the elevator back down.

Gold for the 3rd day has held above $1000, it doesn’t surprise me. Okay we now have support at $998-$1000 for gold. The first resistance is te $1011 double top, when that falls, next stop $1020, and then the assault on the all time high of $1033. Silver already is at it’s high for the year and the sky is the limit. First of all with the euphoria over the “recession is over gang” will mean a perceived and partially real rnewed industrial demand for both Silver and Copper too.. However, when Gold takes out it’s all time high, I think there will be a massive influx of money into Silver the “Poor Man’s Gold”. Silver at $25oz before the end of the year and Gold at $1250- $1325.  I have been accumulating both and also own the core major Silver and Gold producers. I have have mid-tier and junior producers and a few good ‘explorer’s too! This is not to “toot my horn”, but to implore you to join me. Get in now, and hang on for the ride of your life! Great Investing! – jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

===================================================

Wednesday Outlook: No Speed Bumps in Sight? – Seeking Alpha

By: David Fry of ETF Digest

September 15, 2009

NO SPEED BUMPS IN SIGHT?

This rally has only modest volume (although more today) and positive major news remains thin but always “better than expected” (Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Survey). But, hey, Bernanke postulates that the recession is “likely over.” Now, who the hell knew that?! Geithner was more equivocal in his comments saying a “true recovery still has a ways to go.” Well, okay, let’s just say things are better than before.

Volume increased on an up day for a change but some of this is misleading given one glance at the late day trading on the 5 minute SPY chart. Breadth however was positive but not overwhelmingly so.

click to enlarge


“Today is the last trading day for VIX SEPT options, with the cash settlement price disseminated tomorrow morning off the CBOE SPX option volatility calculation. The open interest in the SEPT 25 puts is a staggering 188k, watch for the underlying to lift higher and migrate to this strike during the course of the trading session. Dealers are long this strike due to a series of put butterflies (SEPT 22.5,25,27.5) purchased by customers the past 10 days.” This per our friend, Scott Larison, Managing Director, Options Sales and Strategy, Forefront Advisory in New York.


Retail Sales were “better than expected” causing true believers in Chucky, the Consumer you can’t kill, to go on another shopping spree. You were out there shopping right?



We have quad-witching ahead and some of today’s action is no doubt linked to getting out of the way and manipulation with options and futures. This evening expiring September S&P futures are down a lot with rollover to December no doubt occurring. These are the types of the things that HAL 9000s live on.

There’s plenty of momentum for bulls and there are times this does seem unstoppable. Funny thing, sometimes this is just when things get upended.

One thing markets like is Washington gridlock and the most overexposed president in history is helping with it. He might do a little better if he gave us and his teleprompter a break. That’s just my opinion.

Let’s see what happens.

You can follow ETF Digest on twitter here.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in XLB, XLI, IYR, IEF, TLT, UDN, GLD, DBC, XLE, EWJ, EWZ, EWC and RSX.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

=====================================================================

– Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox. Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

Click Here For Your Free Analysis

=============================================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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It’s Jiffy Pop Time! Gold and Stock Markets Weekly Wrap Up

11 Friday Sep 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, bilderbergers, bonds, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, crash, Credit Default, Crude Oil, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, DGP, DGZ, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, G-20, gata, GLD, gold, Gold Bubble, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, heating oil, how to change, How To Invest, hyper-inflation, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Latest News, Make Money Investing, manipulation, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NASDQ, natural gas, Natural Resources, oil, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, rare earth metals, resistance, run on banks, S&P 500, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, SLV, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, Strategic Metals, Strategic Minerals, Strategic Resources, TARP, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, Today, Treasury, U.S., u.s. constitution, U.S. Dollar, U.S. Government unfunded Debt, U.S. Treasury Dept

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It’s Jiffy Pop Time and the Gold market is just starting to pop, pop, pop. The heat is being generated by the whirring printing presses at the U.S. Treasury; which are running full steam ahead, unabated, and with no prospect of turning them off. This forms the stove with Inflation, (soon to be Hyper-Inflation) are the burners, blazing red hot. Extra energy is coming from the falling dollar and rising prices/Inflation regardless of what the manipulated Government reports may say. True Inflation right now is approximately 18%+. The tin foil on the Jiffy Pop is starting to rise and Gold has closed today at an 18 month high. We are moving out of the deflation stage and into the inflation stage, if Bernanke is truly dedicated to saving the U.S. economy the he need to tell Geitner to turn off the presses now. We have already doubled, no almost tripled the amount of dollars in circulation now; just in the last 8 months.

The popping is growing louder and mmm- the smell of fresh popped Jiffy Pop Popcorn. The heat is high and I hope you are on the right side of the markets- especially Gold and Precious Metals and in Stocks. For Gold in the coming week I fully expect we will take out the $1033 high. I would not be upset if we built a base down here around $1000 –  $1015 during the next few days and closing out next week at $1025 – $1040. This thrust will take us up to $1075- $1100 Then a retracement to back to $1025-$1033 before taking out $1100; and then getting to $1250 – $1300 by the end of the year. We will see a futile attempt to prop up the U.S. Dollar but there is nothing they can do short of raising Interest rates which will sink the fledgling recovery. Oil wil come back and take out first $75 a barrel and then $100 a barrel by the end of the year.

On stocks, I made a mistake on the wave/formation pattern, I still feel we are in the process of creating a head and shoulders top, the exception is that we are still forming the head. I think we will top out the head at DJI 9750- 9800. From there it will be a vicious drop off the cliff preceded by a short right shoulder buildup. I think the big crash is going to occur very soon in the next few weeks. Keep your stops very tight and get ready to play the downside.

I initiated two positions Thurs late afternoon, I bought (DGP) at 2245 and I sold (DGZ) at $22.60. I am getting ready to buy Dec call options for (GLD) and (RGLD) on Monday. You can follow my trades on twitter right after I initiate them.

Have a Great Investing Day! –

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

===================================================

Four Keys To Gold’s Next Move – Seeking Alpha

By Jeffrey Nichols of Nichols On Gold

Gold may have moved too high too soon . . . but whether or not the metal manages to recoup and hold onto recent gains near or above the $1000 an ounce level in the days immediately ahead . . . we are nevertheless looking for new highs (above $1032) in the closing months of the year with gold possibly at $1200 or $1300 before the New Year.

Key One: India

I’ve just returned from India, one of the most crucial markets for gold with a long history and big appetite for the yellow metal. What happens next for gold may depend most on the strength — or weakness — of Indian buying. And, Indian buying is both price sensitive and in sync with various holidays, festivals, and the wedding seasons.

With current rupee-denominated prices near historic highs, many are waiting either for a correction or evidence of staying power before returning to the market for new purchases. And while festival and wedding-related buying is expected later this month, the two-week period up to September 19th is considered inauspicious for gold purchases and many potential buyers will wait until later in the month.

If gold can remain near $1000 for the next week or two, giving Indians a sense of confidence that the price is not about to retreat, we can imagine stronger buying interest sufficient to get the price moving toward its previous historic peak and beyond into uncharted territory.

Key Two: China

Official — but unreported — buying on behalf of the central bank and possibly the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corporation, is being joined by growing private-sector demand for both investment bars and jewelry.

Press reports suggest that the Chinese government has adopted a new — more positive — attitude toward private-sector buying of both gold and silver. With China now the number one gold-mining country, it is in their interest to see a higher gold price as long as demand can be satisfied by domestic mine production and scrap reflows. Additionally, it has been suggested that the new pro-gold policy is intended to channel speculative funds away from real estate and equity investments.

The recently announced agreement for the People’s Bank of China to purchase from the International Monetary Fund about $50 billion in SDR-denominated, IMF-issued interest-bearing securities has also contributed to the latest round of dollar selling . . . and, to the extent that dollar weakness is a plus for gold, this has also supported the early September gold rally.

Key Three: Barrick

Barrick Gold’s (ABX) smart move to buy back its gold hedge position provided a temporary booster shot that helped propel the yellow metal through the $1000 an ounce barrier.

If I remember correctly, as of midyear, Barrick — the world’s largest gold-mine producer — had about 168 tons of gold outstanding on its hedge book . . . and would have to buy back this quantity to regain full exposure to future gold-price moves.

Anticipating an announcement effect, Barrick most likely accelerated its gold repurchase program in the days leading up to the September 7th announcement and probably paused to let the market recover from the news and prices to back off a bit before it resumes its repurchase program. With another tranche still to be repurchased in the months ahead, I expect Barrick to buy into price weakness, helping to underpin the price at moments of weakness.

Key Four: Monetary Factors

Of course, clients and readers of NicholsOnGold know that we think U.S. monetary policy and money supply growth are the primary determinants of U.S. price inflation, U.S. dollar performance, and the future price of gold. Last weekend’s communique from the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors was a reminder that monetary stimulus is likely to stay for some time. This — along with last week’s report from the United Nations critical of the U.S. dollar’s roll as a global reserve asset — has pushed the dollar lower in foreign-exchange markets to the benefit of gold.

If you haven’t already read the full text of my speech to the 6th Annual India International Gold Convention in Goa, India last week, I suggest you take a look for more about gold’s supply/demand situation, important changes in central bank gold policies, and implications of U.S. monetary policy.

===================================================

How to Trade Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Gold ETF Funds – Seeking Alpha

By: Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy

How to trade hot commodities like natural gas, oil and gold? We should see big moves in the coming weeks as gas bottoms, and oil and gold breakout or breakdown. A lot of money is going to be exchanging hands quickly and the key is to be on the receiving end of things. Below are some charts showing where these commodities are trading.

How to Trade Gold – Weekly Chart

How I trade gold is relatively straight forward. I use a simple trading model which allows me to identify the down side risk for a potential gold trade. I also use the same model for trading oil, gas and silver.

Beyond finding good entry points, it is crucial to know when to take some profits off the table. The weekly gold chart clearly shows gold trading at a resistance level which means there are going to be more sellers than buyers, hence the reason it is called resistance.

To trade gold I enter with my low risk entry points and sell half my position once I reach a resistance level. Thursday for example gold moved up into this long term resistance level and then started to head south. We took some profits off the table before gold dipped in the late afternoon for a healthy gain. Taking profits is a must or you’ll simply hold onto winning positions until they eventually turn into a loser.

Gold Resistance Level

How to Trade Crude Oil – Weekly Chart

Trading crude oil is exciting because it moves much faster than gold. How to trade crude oil with low risk can be done by using my simple trading model which is a combination of indicators like momentum, support & resistance, volume, price patterns and media coverage. All these things combined allow for highly accurate trades with minimal down side risk.

Crude oil looks ready to make a big move. The odds are pointing to higher prices because oil has a multi month bullish price action and the falling US dollar helps increase the price of oil. I can see oil breakout and rally into the $95 per barrel level if things go that way in the coming weeks.

Crude Oil Trading Newsletter

How to Trade Oil (USO Fund) – Weekly Chart

USO tracks similarly to the price of crude oil and it provides some great trades for both swing traders and day traders. I focus on trades that bounce off support with low downside risks, which occur on both the daily and weekly charts.

How to trade USO

How to Trade Natural Gas – Weekly Chart

Natural gas is looking ready to bottom here. If you go back to the early 90’s the $2-3 range is a major support level. While I don’t generally try to pick bottoms, there are some signature price patterns and volume patterns that have proven to be very profitable for catching sharp bounces.

How to trade Natural Gas

How to Trade Natural Gas – Daily Chart

The daily chart shows a perfect waterfall sell off with the price of natural gas dropping to a long term support level. This pattern combination shows panic selling which indicates a short term bottom is close.

The extreme panic selling and sharp decline in price, removes much of the down side risk. Scaling into a position over a few days, if the price continues to move lower, is important for this strategy to work its magic.

The black horizontal lines show my resistance levels for taking profits. If the price were to drop below $10 then I would exit the second half of the position to lock in the rest of the profit.

How to trade UNG

How to Trade Commodities Conclusion:

Trading commodities is very simple with all the ETFs and funds available. The energy funds like oil and gas have some issues with following the prices of their underlying commodity but I do not find it a problem with my style of trading.

I would really like to know the entire story about what is going on with the oil and nat gas funds which have crazy contango issues. Why do other commodity funds like GLD (gold bullion) and SLV (silver bullion) not have these issues? Why can’t they make a fund which follows oil and gas properly? All I know is that there are a lot of dishonest people in the financial industry taking honest hard working peoples’ money.

Visit The Gold and Oil Guy

===============================================================

(9-11 Postscript): I salute the fallen hero’s of 9-11 – we will not forget you! Our prayers are still with the families of the fallen and the survivors. We will never forget…

===============================================================

I will be starting regular daily posts next week especially since the markets are heating up- Like I said it’s “Jiffy Pop” time! – Have a great weekend-jschulmansr

===============================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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Black September is Here Again!

01 Tuesday Sep 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, agricultural commodities, alternate energy, Alternate Fuel Sources, alternative Energy, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear market, Bear Trap, bonds, bull market, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Credit Default, Crude Oil, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Government Spending, hard assets, heating oil, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Latest News, Long Bonds, majors, Make Money Investing, manipulation, Market Bubble, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, NASDQ, natural gas, Natural Resources, oil, Paladium, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, risk, run on banks, S&P 500, safety, Saudi Arabia, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, Treasury, U.S., U.S. Dollar, U.S. Government unfunded Debt, U.S. Treasury Dept, warrants, XAU

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Well the dog days of summer are over and September is blowing in. As the brilliant colors of autumn are starting to bloom with the leaves turning orange, gold and crimson; the leaves are starting to drop. That’s not all that is starting to fall, stocks are beginning their seasonal drop. If you haven’t taken profits please do so. We will see one more push up in stocks as they form the right shoulder of the head and shoulders formation on the chart. We have just finished the head with the right shoulder to follow (DJIA). 9200 (DJIA) is the first support, next roughly 9125-9080. A decisive break below the 50 day moving average or 9000 will be absolute confirmation of the new bear market downtrend. Commercial real estate is one of the next factors (shoe) about to drop. In addition the tax break for buying a new home is about to end, and the auto industry will not have cash for clunkers to fall back on. Late Breaking China has said NO to Credit derivatives and any losses from them. This is definitely not good for the US markets. So get rid of your more speculative stocks move to good yielding stocks in industries that people have to buy the products in good times or bad times. On the rest move your stops very close w/in 10% trailing. Maybe also look at selling covered calls or puts to lock in profits and earn a little income on the side.

Gold and Precious metals are coiled up ready to spring dramatically to the upside. Countdown is almost over, ignition commencing. We have a nice little triangle in Gold. Personally, I feel we will see the breakout to the upside after a little false breakout to the downside. In other words I fell it will go down like this, first we will see Gold test the $930 level as the Big 3 shorts make one more desperate effort to save themselves. However I feel that Gold will hold and climb back to $950 and then break above $965. When that happens the next resistance will be $980, then $1000, and then a 2nd test for the all time high at $1032. I think it will successfully break that level and hit at least $1250 before the end of the year with a potential to actually hit $1325. Keep accumulating companies with a low cost of production, junior and mid tier producers with current or about to start production. There are still many bargains which I will start featuring here on the blog.

I apologize for the recent lack of posts over the past month. Since I lost my day job, I decided to go back to school again so to speak by taking a few intensive trading and technical analysis courses to refresh up again. Since my new job will be trading the markets, I will be sharing my picks and option trades, forex trades, along with choice stock picks. Wishing all of us Great Investing! -jschulmansr

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  • · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

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John Licata Still Eyeing $1200 Gold in 2009 – GoldSeek.com

Bullish on gold since it carried a $400-per-ounce price tag, Blue Phoenix Chief Investment Strategist John Licata expects the king of metals to ring in the New Year with a $1,200-per-ounce crown. As he told The Gold Report in April, he still considers gold one of the best asset plays in the world. With recovery on the horizon, he’s also high on silver—in part because a pickup in manufacturing will drive up demand. While he says it’s premature to claim economic recovery, he isn’t looking to copper to serve as the traditional harbinger of a return from recession this time. His rationale? Good economic news—while too inconsistent to make recovery imminent—is already baked in to copper’s climb already this year.

The Gold Report: You weren’t too bullish on seeing a recovery in 2009 when we caught up with you in April. We’ve seen some good Q2 reporting from a variety of companies and some encouraging economic data. The government is starting to claim we’re in recovery. What’s your take on this?

John Licata: I do think we’ve seen some better domestic economic data, but it’s premature to think we’re totally out of the woods. In terms of corporate earnings, a lot of company profits might have surprised to the upside, but they’re still down 50% to 70% from quarters before or the prior year.

Many companies have been trying to compare Q1 and Q2. You’re still not seeing dramatic differences to the upside. Quite frankly, some companies are still living within cash flow and I think that’s one of the reasons why we could have a problem with supply and demand imbalances as we come to the end of 2009 and enter 2010.

Unemployment is likely to keep rising. Although the last numbers were much better than anticipated, I don’t think we’ve seen the green light that will cause people to start hiring again. We could hit 10% unemployment by the end of the year, and that’s going to be a precursor to some weaker retail heading into the holiday season. Net-net, you probably could put the word ‘inconsistent’ toward most of the economic data coming out of the U.S.

The industrial numbers that came out of China a couple of weeks ago [August 10] were actually below expectations as well. While everyone wants to be bullish and the data is somewhat better than many expected, it’s still not great. So I think to claim victory right now is definitely premature.

TGR: You mentioned a supply-demand imbalance. What do you see on that front?

JL: Companies are not putting money back into infrastructure. For that reason, once demand actually starts to increase, supply levels will be shockingly different from what people might expect.

TGR: Are you differentiating between the BRIC countries and North America in that regard?

JL: I’m not just looking at the BRIC countries as the barometer for the economic pulse. I don’t even think China is the saving grace for commodities. But I do think what is going to be indicative for a recovery is to see demand pick up, to start seeing jobs pick up again, more consistently; not just one month out of six. We need to see consistent job growth.

TGR: When do you think demand might pick up?

JL: Q3, perhaps Q4, is when we probably can start seeing demand start picking up and I think that’s when we’re going to start to see overall a global economic recovery. I’m skeptical that it can happen before Q4.

TGR: Is that worldwide demand pickup you’re anticipating?

JL: I’m referring to North America.

TGR: Can demand pick up before unemployment abates?

JL: It can happen before, but I think demand and employment will increase in tandem.

TGR: In our previous conversation, you compared the investment opportunities in oil, natural gas and gold to one another. At this point, which of these three sectors do you think offer the greatest return?

JL: Because of the upside that I think could happen over the next 12 months, I would rate natural gas first, gold second and oil third. For right now, I’m conservatively optimistic on oil. Although short term we might have a pullback, I’m still bullish on the price of oil. I think oil will trade north of $80 by year end, and I think we’ll again see triple-digit oil within the next two years. A lot of major wells in the world are not as productive as they once were and when it comes to demand increasing because the overall economic health around the world is picking up, we could be in trouble in terms of supplies. That relates to the metals as well as energy.

TGR: Speaking of metals, your outlook for gold?

JL: I continue to maintain that we could see $1,200 gold prices by year-end. I think gold is very much on the way to hitting that pretty aggressive price target. The miners themselves seem pretty confident on the upside for gold.

TGR: In April, you described gold as one of the best asset plays in the world and your recommendation to investors was to focus initially on physical gold. Have you changed that viewpoint?

JL: No. I’ve been bullish on gold since it was below $400. But now I am starting to see some opportunities in the equity side of the gold market that are becoming very appealing and I didn’t see that when we last spoke.

TGR: Are you still bullish on platinum and palladium, too?

JL: I am still enthusiastic, but not as bullish on either of them just because we have seen a bit of a run since April. I’d rather be in silver. I think silver gets forgotten when we start talking about precious metals. As opposed to platinum or palladium, I would rather be in the silver space.

TGR: Is there anything in particular in silver that you’re finding appealing?

JL: I just think if we’re talking about an economic recovery in the back half of this year into 2010 and silver is mostly used for industrial purposes, I honestly think that silver prices are just forgotten. When people start talking about the inflation hedge, they jump into gold. If they start talking about the economy improving, they jump into copper. They tend to forget that silver is actually used for much manufacturing. So I think that is the forgotten metal and I do think that silver prices can move a lot higher, especially as gold prices march through $1,000.

TGR: As you say, people look to copper as the leading metal to point to in terms of a recovery. What’s your feeling about copper?

JL: You hit the nail on the head. Everyone starts to talk about copper, but nothing has jumped out at me to say that copper prices have much more upside. Copper prices are up nearly 100% year-to-date, so I think a lot of the recovery that many people are talking about has been priced in already.

The Baltic Dry Index, an index that just had the biggest monthly drop since October (down 28% in August), has been down because people fear that China might cut back on buying iron ore and coal. If that happens, copper prices won’t be immune. Copper supplies have been tight for the last couple of quarters. If anything, we’re trading about 35 cents or 40 cents above the recent 50-day moving average. I think copper is over-extended right now.

TGR: Any last comments before we meet again?

JL: Only that while it’s a difficult marketplace and I do expect tight markets around the world to continue, some of the plays we’ve talked about have the makings of a pretty successful portfolio.

After studying economics and graduating from Saint Peter’s College in New Jersey (where he received the Wall Street Journal Award for economic excellence), John J. Licata set his sights on Wall Street. During his career, John has held both trading and research positions on the NYMEX, Dow Jones, Smith Barney and Brokerage America. Early in 2006, he founded Blue Phoenix, Inc., an independent energy/metals research and consulting firm based in New York City. John, the company’s Chief Investment Strategist, has appeared regularly in the media (CNBC, Bloomberg TV/Radio, Business News Network (BNN), Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Sun, Los Angeles Times, etc.) over the years for his insights/forecasts in the commodity spectrum.

Streetwise – The Gold Report is Copyright © 2009 by Streetwise Inc. All rights are reserved. Streetwise Inc. hereby grants an unrestricted license to use or disseminate this copyrighted material (i) only in whole (and always including this disclaimer), but (ii) never in part.

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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The Countdown Has Begun!

07 Friday Aug 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, Bailout News, banking crisis, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear market, Bear Trap, Bollinger Bands, bonds, bull market, capitalism, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, crash, Credit Default, Crude Oil, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, CyberKnife, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, G-20, gata, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Latest News, Long Bonds, majors, Make Money Investing, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, NASDQ, oil, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, S&P 500, Short Bonds, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, SLV, small caps, spot, spot price, stagflation, stock market, Stocks, TARP, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, Treasury, U.S., u.s. constitution, U.S. Dollar, U.S. Government unfunded Debt, U.S. Treasury Dept

≈ Comments Off on The Countdown Has Begun!

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

The timer is ticking and drawing ever closer. The Markets are behaving just like I felt they would be. The (DJI) is making it’s final push while the broader market is starting to lag. We are almost at the top of the head in the head and shoulders pattern for the (DJI). Will it break 10,000? Personally I do not think so. The market rallied today on “funny” unemployment figures released by the government this morning. What happened to the 750,000 unemployed workers which have seemingly vanished? They certainly were not hired on new jobs! Where did they go? Add them back, you now have a more real picture of unemployment. Please keep your stop losses tight and be prepared to be stopped out.

Gold and Precious Metals… Like I said the timer is drawing down to zero. Keep accumulating and add on to your (DGP) positions too. Buy producers and those near production with proven reserves. I still see $1250 by year end for Gold, $25 for Silver and /or better! Buy now! Your Children and Grandchildren will Thank You!   Another stock I like is Apollo Gold (AGT), they recently have started production and are ramping up for more. At .45 cents a share you can get a nice position for a small investment. Another “Buy and Forget”. By the way I still also feel Silver will outperform Gold on a percentage basis (see article below).

Have a Great Weekend, I will be resuming regular daily posts as soon as I have finished setting up a couple of new web sites. My other vocation, I am also an Internet Marketer. Remember, set up as many multiple income streams as you can. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

Please Follow me on Twitter & FaceBook at: 
http://twitter.com/jschulmansr - Overall Markets and Trading Blog
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http://twitter.com/tweetsthecash - Internet Marketing and Affiliate Marketing
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Thanks Again!
Jeff aka jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

================================================

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

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Insiders are Selling – MarketWatch

By: Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders have recently been selling their companies’ shares at a greater pace than at any time since the top of the bull market in the fall of 2007.

Does that mean you should immediately start lightening your equity exposure?

It depends on whom you ask.

But, first, the data.

Corporate insiders are a company’s officers, directors and largest shareholders. They are required to report to the SEC whenever they buy or sell shares of their companies, and various research firms collect and analyze those transactions.

One is the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research. In their latest issue, received Monday afternoon, Vickers reported that the ratio of insider selling to insider buying last week was 4.16-to-1, the highest the ratio has been since October 2007.

I don’t need to remind you that the 2002-2007 bull market topped out that month.

To be sure, the weekly insider data can be volatile, especially during periods like the summer, in which the overall volume of insider transactions can be quite light. That is one of the reasons why Vickers also calculates an eight-week average of the insider sell-to-buy ratio, and it currently stands at 2.69-to-1. That’s the highest that this eight-week ratio has been since November 2007.

To put the insiders’ recent selling into context, consider that in late April, the last time I devoted a column to the behavior of insiders (and when the rally that began on March 9 was still only six weeks old), the comparable eight-week sell-to-buy ratio was just 0.72-to-1. ( Read my April 27 column.)

Why, given this, shouldn’t we be running, not walking, to the exits?

May be you should, of course.

But, in deciding whether to do so, there are several other factors to consider.

The first reason to be at least a little bit skeptical of insiders’ current pessimism is that they, on balance, failed to anticipate the 2007-2009 bear market. On the contrary, as I reported on numerous occasions during that bear market, they were largely bullish throughout. The average recommended equity exposure of Vickers’ two model portfolios, for example, was around 90% from late 2007 through the early part of this year.

What makes insiders more worth listening to now than then?

It’s a fair enough question, of course. What those who are inclined to follow the insiders can say by way of response is that insiders, over the years, have been more right than wrong — even though by no means infallible.

Another reason not to immediately go to cash in response to insiders’ increased recent predisposition to sell their companies’ stock: They are often early.

In fact, Investors Intelligence, a newsletter edited by John Gray and Michael Burke, bases one of its market timing indicators on how the insiders were behaving 12 months previously.

A similar point was made earlier this week by Jonathan Moreland, editor of the Insider Insights newsletter. While acknowledging that recent insider behavior “seems totally inconsistent with this rally continuing unabated,” Moreland went on to argue that “it may take weeks or even months for insiders to be proven right. Money can be made in the meantime.”

The bottom line? Insiders are not always right. And even when they are right, they often are early.

Even so, it’s difficult to sugar-coat the recent increase in the pace of their selling,

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

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Fundamentals Are in Place For Silver To Move Higher – Seeking Alpha

Source: The Silver Analyst

The fundamentals are in place for silver and gold to move higher. The ongoing issuance of US treasuries and further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve inevitably point to continued dollar weakness. The interesting fact that the Fed stepped in recently to indirectly buy some of the auctioned bonds points to a decreasing lack of investor appetite for US debt. That the Fed indulged in QE is no surprise – they announced that months ago. It was more the fact they had to step into the void created by the absence of buyers that was more telling. So much for the fundamentals – now what about the technicals of timing?

No doubt you are aware that the US Dollar Index has breached longer term support at 77.7 and is currently slogging to retrieve that level of support. We don’t think it will succeed but for how long it will hold out is as yet uncertain. The breach is slight and we are still looking for a decisive breach that will propel gold and silver higher. The chart below sums up the dollar situation with potential overhead resistance at 79.

Looking at silver, we are seeing a pattern emerge that suggests if the dollar breaks to the downside, silver will be targeting its former high of $21 though we are uncertain of it completely taking that high out in the medium term. Nevertheless a buying opportunity is present and as advised to subscribers, we already have gone long in July.

The question for those with positions is when to exit? The silver chart is shown below displaying the longer term trend in terms of months with the prospect of the upper channel being tested if the dollar falls through to its lower channel in the low 70s. As a guide, remember when the US Dollar fell to 70 in March 2008, silver went to $21.

Zooming into the daily charts, we see silver has begun a move up since mid-July not dissimilar to the moves up in February and June. Those moves lasted two to three months and we anticipate something of the same here. Note the support lines in the two prior moves and their similar angles of ascent. By way of projection I have copied the first trend line from February and superimposed it on the current move. It meets the longer term line of resistance at about $18. That is the kind of price action we hope silver will indulge us when the dollar breaks down further.

You will also note the Elliott wave notation. The last move up from April to June was a clear impulse wave and this current wave looks to be in a wave 3 now with all the upside potential that such a wave brings.

So the stage is set for some fireworks but to aid our silver and gold cause the resistance line on the US Dollar Index chart needs to hold. So far it is and next week should prove to be very interesting.

Disclosure: The Silver Analyst is long silver bullion!

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Gold Bullion Regaining Its Glitter – Seeking Alpha

By: Prieur du Plessis of Investment Postcards

Is gold bullion coming back to life? Should one read anything into the rise of 6.2% (+$56) since the yellow metal’s low of early July?

When it comes to gold bullion and gold stocks, I need to confess I started my investment career in 1984 as none other than a mining analyst. Ever since those days of calculating net present values on my trusted HP 12C I have been intrigued by the shenanigans of the yellow metal and related stocks. And I have also learnt over the years that one should never underestimate the ability of the gold price to surprise when least expected.

Admittedly, part of the improvement in the gold price can be ascribed to the fading US greenback, which declined by 3.9% over the same period. I always have more faith in gold’s rallies when they are not only a reflection of US dollar weakness, but gold is also appreciating in most currencies. This serves as an indication of increased investment demand and is a phenomenon one should keep an eye on as gold might just have started moving independently of the dollar over the past few days.

Considering the fundamental outlook for gold, a very comprehensive report was recently published by Austria’s Erste Group. The analysts list the positive and negative influences below, leading them to conclude that gold is only half-way through a secular bull market and offers an outstanding risk/return profile.

Negative factors:
• Clearly falling jewellery demand.
• Recessions are basically not a good environment for the gold price (the gold price gets stimulated at a later stage by the measures taken during the recession).
• Gold tends to be held as asset and cash of last resort, which means it is liquidated in extreme financial situations. Given that more than 70% of jewellery is bought on the Indian subcontinent, the supply of recycled gold might continue to rise.
• De-hedging is coming to an end.
• The futures positions (CoT) would suggest a short-term correction.

Positive aspects:
• The worldwide reflationary policy will continue for a while.
• Global USD reserves are excessive, and the need to diversify is enormous.
• De facto zero-interest policy in USA, Japan and Europe.
• Central banks have changed their attitude towards gold.
• Supply still in long-term downward trend.
• Investment demand will remain high; Wall Street has discovered gold.
• Commodity cycle has a long way to go.
• Geopolitical environment remains fragile.
• China will increase its gold reserves.

Gold’s technical picture is certainly looking up. This is explained by Adam Hewison of INO.com who prepared a short analysis of gold’s most likely direction. (The analysis was done on Tuesday, but is still as relevant today as it was then.)

Click here or on the image below to access the video presentation.

spot-gold-pic1

Seasonally, September also seems to be a good month for gold, with an average gain of 2.6% for the month since 1970.

gold-price-pic2

Source: Plexus Asset Management

I am bullish on gold in the medium term, especially as I believe the vast money printing by central banks could set off strong inflation pressures down the road. I will not be surprised to see bullion passing the infamous $1,000 resistance level over the next few weeks – a question of fifth time lucky – and I will be inclined to add bullion to my portfolio on pullbacks.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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WooHoo Look at Gold!

04 Tuesday Aug 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, central banks, commodities, Copper, crash, Credit Default, Crude Oil, Currencies, Currency and Currencies, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, economic, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, futures markets, gata, gold, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, How To Invest, How To Make Money, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Long Bonds, Make Money Investing, manipulation, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, NAK, oil, PAL, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, S&P 500, Short Bonds, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, small caps, spot, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, TIPS, Today, Treasury, U.S., U.S. Dollar, U.S. Government unfunded Debt, U.S. Treasury Dept, volatility

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Well it looks like the rally is starting, growing slowly with a broad base of support for Gold. Keep accumulating while you have the chance. Lots of Companies out there that are looking mighty attractive. Remember accumulate juniors and mid tier producers or those companies at or near production. Remember I am still calling for $1250 gold by year end. The only monkey wrench that could be thrown in is if the big the shorts on the market try to drive it down one more time. Support lies at $950, $928, $910; and resistances are at $970, $987, and then $1000. This rally is very reminiscent of what  happened back in July-Aug. 2007 only on a more volatile basis. One other quick note as far as Silver is concerned. I am looking for $25+ Silver by the end of the year and to perform on a percentage basis even better than Gold. Some stocks I really like aggressive buys, (OSKFF) $6.80 OB, (HL) $3.75 OB, (NAK) $7.55 OB, (CDE) $16.00 OB, (NG) $5.00 OB, (FRG) $5.00 OB, and that’s just to mention a few.  For Silver, (FRMSF) $2.80 OB, (IVN) $8.50 OB, along with (HL) and (CDE). For Platinum and Palladium, (SWC) $7.50 OB, (PAL) $3.90 OB, (ANO) $1.25. (OB equals or better). Remember due your due diligence, consult your financial advisor’s and read the prospectuses before making any investments. Disclosure: I am Long all of the afore mentioned stocks. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; 

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 
  • · Who's been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!
Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault   ==================================================== Why Gold Could Hit $1,300 This Year --- Seeking Alpha By: Graham Summers of Gains, Pains, & Capital Gold may be nearing its next major leg up. No investment ever goes straight up or straight down. During the last bull market in gold, the precious metal rose 2,329% from a low of $35 in 1970 to a high of $850 in 1980. However, during that time, there was a period of 18 months in which gold fell nearly 50% (see the chart below). As you can see, from mid-1971 to December 1974, gold rose 471%. It then fell 50%, from December ’74 to August ’76. After that, it began its next leg up, exploding 750% higher from August ’76 to January 1980. Now, in its current bull market (2001 to March 2008), gold rose over 300% from $250 to a little over $1,000. And just like in the mid-70s, it began showing signs of weakness after its first big rally up to $1,014 in March ’08. At one point, it even fell to $700, a 30% retraction. Granted, it wasn’t a full 50% retraction like the one that occurred from 1974-76. But we are experiencing a financial crisis. And gold is the most common catastrophe insurance. If we were to go by the historic pattern of the gold market in the ‘70s, gold should experience upwards resistance for 19 months after its first peak today. Gold’s recent peak was $1,014 in March ’08 (roughly 17 months ago). If this bull market parallels the last one, then gold should renew its upward momentum in a very serious way starting in October 2009. And this next leg up should be a major one (the biggest gains came during the second rally in gold’s bull market in the ‘70s). The chart certainly forecasts a major move. As you can see, gold has formed a long-term inverse head and shoulders formation (two smaller collapses book-ending a major collapse). Typically a head and shoulders predicts a massive collapse. However, when the head and shoulders is inverse, as is the case for gold today, this typically predicts a MAJOR leg up. Indeed, any move above the “neckline” of 1,000 would forecast a MAJOR move up to $1,300 or so. Going by history, this is precisely the move we should expect: remember based on historical trends (the gold bull market of the ‘70s) gold should begin its second and largest leg up in September or October 2009. Watch the gold chart closely over the next month or so. If gold makes a move above $980 perhaps add to your current positions. If it clears $1,000, hold on tight, cause the next leg up in this secular bull market has begun. Good Investing! =================================================== My Note: After watching stocks (DJI) this afternoon and the strange price behavior before the close, I felt I would add this article too! -jschulmansr =================================================== Five Reason the Market Could Crash This Fall - Seeking Alpha By: Graham Summers of Gains, Pains, & Capital With all this blather about “green shoots” and economic “recovery” and new “bull market,” I thought I’d inject a little reality into the collective financial dialogue. The following are ALL true, all valid, and all horrifying… Enjoy. 1) High Frequency Trading Programs account for 70% of market volume High Frequency Trading Programs (HFTP) collect a ¼ of a penny rebate for every transaction they make. They’re not interested in making a gains from a trade, just collecting the rebate. Let’s say an institutional investor has put in an order to buy 15,000 shares of XYZ company between $10.00 and $10.07. The institution’s buy program is designed to make this order without pushing up the stock price, so it buys the shares in chunks of 100 or so (often it also advertises to the index how many shares are left in the order). First it buys 100 shares at $10.00. That order clears, so the program buys another 200 shares at $10.01. That clears, so the program buys another 500 shares at $10.03. At this point an HFTP will have recognized that an institutional investor is putting in a large staggered order. The HFTP then begins front-running the institutional investor. So the HFTP puts in an order for 100 shares at $10.04. The broker who was selling shares to the institutional investor would obviously rather sell at a higher price (even if it’s just a penny). So the broker sells his shares to the HFTP at $10.04. The HFTP then turns around and sells its shares to the institutional investor for $10.04 (which was the institution’s next price anyway). In this way, the trading program makes ½ a penny (one ¼ for buying from the broker and another ¼ for selling to the institution) AND makes the institutional trader pay a penny more on the shares. And this kind of nonsense now comprises 70% OF ALL MARKET TRANSACTIONS. Put another way, the market is now no longer moving based on REAL orders, it’s moving based on a bunch of HFTPs gaming each other and REAL orders to earn fractions of a penny. Currently, roughly five billion shares trade per day. Take away HFTP’s transactions (70%) and you’ve got daily volume of 1.5 billion. That’s roughly the same amount of transactions that occur during Christmas (see the HUGE drop in late December), a time when almost every institution and investor is on vacation. HFTPs were introduced under the auspices of providing liquidity. But the liquidity they provide isn’t REAL. It’s largely microsecond trades between computer programs, not REAL buy/sell orders from someone who has any interest in owning stocks. In fact, HFTPs are not REQUIRED to trade. They’re entirely “for profit” enterprises. And the profits are obscene: $21 billion spread out amongst the 100 or so firms who engage in this (Goldman Sachs (GS) is the undisputed king controlling an estimated 21% of all High Frequency Trading). So IF the market collapses (as it well could when the summer ends and institutional participation returns to the market in full force). HFTPs can simply stop trading, evaporating 70% of the market’s trading volume overnight. Indeed, one could very easily consider HFTPs to be the ULTIMATE market prop as you will soon see. TAKE AWAY 70% of MARKET VOLUME AND YOU HAVE FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON. 2) Even counting HFTP volume, market volume has contracted the most since 1989 Indeed, volume hasn’t contracted like this since the summer of 1989. For those of you who aren’t history buffs, the S&P 500’s performance in 1989 offers some clues as what to expect this coming fall. In 1989, the S&P 500 staged a huge rally in March, followed by an even stronger rally in July. Throughout this time, volume dried up to a small trickle. What followed wasn’t pretty. Anytime stocks explode higher on next to no volume and crap fundamentals you run the risk of a real collapse. I am officially going on record now and stating that IF the S&P 500 hits 1,000, we will see a full-blown Crash like last year. 3) This Latest Market Rally is a Short-Squeeze and Nothing More To date, the stock market is up 48% since its March lows. This is truly incredible when you consider the underlying economic picture: normally when the market rallies 40%+ from a bear market low, the economy is already nine months into recovery mode. Indeed, assuming the market is trading based on earnings, the S&P 500 is currently discounting earnings growth of 40-50% for 2010. The odds of that happening are about one in one million. A closer examination of this rally reveals the degree to which “junk” has triumphed over value. Since July 10th:
  • The 50 smallest stocks have outperformed the largest 50
  • stocks by 7.5%.
  • The 50 most shorted stocks have beaten the 50 least shorted
  • stocks by 8.8%.
Why is this? Because this rally has largely been a short squeeze. Consider that the short interest has plunged 72% in the last two months. Those industries that should be falling the most right now due to the world’s economic contraction (energy, materials, etc.) have seen the largest drop in short interest: Energy -90%, Materials -94%, Financials -86%. In simple terms, this rally was the MOTHER of all short squeezes. The fact that it occurred on next to no volume and crummy fundamentals sets the stage for a VERY ugly correction. 4) 13 Million Americans Exhaust Unemployment by 12/09 A lot of the bull-tards in the media have been going wild that unemployment claims are falling. It strikes me as surprising that this would be true given the fact that virtually every company that posted the alleged “awesome” earnings in 2Q09 did so by laying off thousands of employees:
  • Yahoo! (YHOO) will cut 675 jobs.
  • Verizon (VZ) just laid off 9,000 employees.
  • Motorola (MOT) plans to lay off 7,000 folks this year.
  • Shell (RDS.A) has laid off 150 management positions
  • (20% of management).
  • Microsoft (MSFT) plans to lay off 5,000 people this year.
So unemployment claims are falling, that means people are finding jobs right? Wrong. It means that people are exhausting their unemployment benefits. When you consider that there are 30 million people on food stamps in the US (out of the 200 million that are of working age: 15-64) it’s clear REAL unemployment must be closer to 16%. And they’re slowly running out of their government lifelines. The three million people who lost their jobs in the second half of 2008 will exhaust their benefits by October 2009. When you add in dependents, this means that around 10 million folks will have no income and virtually no savings come Halloween. Throw in the other four million who lost their jobs in the first half of 2009 and you’ve got 13 million people (counting families) who will be essentially destitute by year-end. How does this affect the stock market? The US consumer is 70% of our GDP. People without jobs don’t spend money. People who are having to work part-time instead of full-time (another nine million) spend less money than full time employees. And people who are forced to work shorter work weeks (current average is 33, an ALL TIME LOW), have less money to spend. Wall Street makes a big deal about earnings (earnings estimates, earnings forecast, etc), but when it comes to economic growth, sales are the more critical metric. Companies can increase profits by reducing costs temporarily, but unless actual top lines increase, there is NO growth to be seen. No revenue growth means no hiring, which means no uptick in employment, which means greater housing and credit card defaults, greater Federal welfare (unemployment, food stamps, etc), etc. So how will corporate profits perform as more and more consumers become part-time, unemployed, or destitute? Well, so far profits have been awful. And that’s BEFORE we start seeing millions of Americans losing their unemployment benefits. With the S&P rallying on these already crap results… what do you think will happen when reality sets in during 3Q09? 5) The $1 QUADRILLION Derivatives Time Bomb Few commentators care to mention that the total notional value of derivatives in the financial system is over $1.0 QUADRILLION (that’s 1,000 TRILLIONS). US Commercial banks alone own an unbelievable $202 trillion in derivatives. The top five of them hold 96% of this. By the way, the chart is in TRILLIONS of dollars: As you can see, Goldman Sachs alone has $39 trillion in derivatives outstanding. That’s an amount equal to more than three times total US GDP. Amazing, but nothing compared to JP Morgan (JPM), which has a whopping $80 TRILLION in derivatives on its balance sheet. Bear in mind, these are “notional” values of derivatives, not the amount of money “at risk” here. However, if even 1% of the $1 Quadrillion is actually at risk, you’re talking about $10 trillion in “at risk.” What are the odds that Wall Street, when allowed to trade without any regulation, oversight, or audits, put a lot of money at risk? I mean… Wall Street’s track record regarding financial instruments that were ACTUALLY analyzed and rated by credit ratings agencies has so far been stellar. After all, mortgage backed securities, credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligations… those vehicles all turned out great what with the ratings agencies, banks risk management systems, and various other oversight committees reviewing them. I’m sure that derivatives which have absolutely NO oversight, no auditing, no regulation, will ALL be fine. There’s NO WAY that the very same financial institutions that used 30-to-1 leverage or more on regulated balance sheet investments would put $50+ trillion “at risk” (only 5% of the $1 quadrillion notional) when they were trading derivatives. If Wall Street did put $50 trillion at risk… and 10% of that money goes bad (quite a low estimate given defaults on regulated securities) that means $5 trillion in losses: an amount equal to HALF of the total US stock market. This of course assumes that Wall Street only put 5% of its notional value of derivatives at risk… and only 10% of the derivatives “at risk” go bad. Do you think those assumptions are a bit… low? =================================================== Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 
  • · Who's been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!
Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault   ==================================================== Nothing in today's post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr  

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Here We Go Again!

04 Thursday Jun 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, Austrian school, banking crisis, banks, bear market, bonds, bull market, capitalism, central banks, commodities, deflation, depression, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Dow Industrials, economic, economic trends, economy, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, fraud, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, hard assets, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, inflation, Investing, investments, Jschulmansr, Make Money Investing, manipulation, market crash, Markets, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, oil, Paladium, palladium, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, rare earth metals, recession, risk, run on banks, S&P 500, safety, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, Strategic Metals, Strategic Minerals, Strategic Resources, TARP, Technical Analysis, Ted Bultler, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, Today, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility

≈ Comments Off on Here We Go Again!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Here We Go Again! (DJI) Key make or break point 8750. The rah rah is working partially and so stocks continue to creep up. However after looking at Gold, Oil, and Treasuries we have to ask what is really about to happen. Here’s my take in one word… Inflation. Now let’s make that word a little bit more truer… Hyper-Inflation! Yes, my readers that is what is about to come up. You may now just be starting to hear the mainstream press talking about inflation fears, but still they have their heads in the sands and are going on ad nauseum about the glimmers of recover and how were are in a new Bull market for stocks. The only real Bull Market for Stocks are in the hard assests sectors i.e. Gold, Silver, Oil, and the like. Oh, don’t get me wrong, I think the (DJI) will make another stab at 9000 if it can successfully break thru the (DJI) 8750, (S&P 500) 975. Failure here means the beginning of the downward spiral all the way down to (DJI) 6500 again. The Dollar is doomed and is already on the way down. Just think what happens to your purchasing power with the Dollar going down and inflation kicking in? Definitely not a pretty picture!

Now for Gold and Silver is there any doubt? To the moon Alice! Do yourself a favor take your profits out now in Stocks and put them into hard assets.  The reason is simple, they tried to manipulate the prices yesterday by taking huge short and driving Gold down to $960 level. Then look what happened today Gold came screaming back. Gold will take out the $1007 barrier! There will be resistance and more huge short positions taken around $990 in a last vain attempt/manipulation to hold Gold back, but it will fail. Remember to preserve the purchasing power of your dollar is to buy Gold and Silver, especially Silver NOW! Get aboard the Precious Metals train now, it is leaving the station… Good Investing! – jschulmansr

ps- I promised a HOT Stock go to last section of today’s post.

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

  • ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Today only One Article – I know you just can’t wait for the Hot Tip, so if in a hurry scroll down to bottom/end of post. But then COME back and read this article and click on the links within the article to learn what is really going on with Precious Metals price manipulation. -jschulmansr

Will a ‘Silver Bullet’ Finally Kill the Metal Manipulators?- Seeking Alpha 

By: Jeff Nielson of Bullion Bulls Canada

In my previous commentary, “Silver market fundamentals DISTORTED by bullion-ETFs”, I pointed out how (so-called) “bullion-ETFs” were (with rare exceptions) merely a tool of the manipulators – with two primary purposes.

First of all, bullion-ETFs soak-up billions of investor-dollars each year, which would otherwise be invested in real bullion, or in the shares of precious metals miners. Naturally, this has helped to depress the price of silver, and severely depress the price of silver miners – since almost all of the diverted investor-dollars were diverted from the miners, and not bullion, itself. I also showed how these fraudulent investment vehicles have been used to artificially inflate the supposed inventory-levels of silver stockpiles.

Specifically, at a time when actual silver inventories are at their lowest level in centuries, the (supposed) amount of “bullion” these funds claim to hold has singlehandedly resulted in “official” inventory levels tripling in just three years – after plunging by 90%.

Today’s market price is based upon these phony “inventories” despite the fact that the bullion-banks who claim to hold all this silver are never subjected to audits, to determine that they are not only holding enough silver to cover their custodial agreements with the “bullion-ETFs” – but are also holding sufficient silver to cover the MUCH larger “short” positions of these Manipulators (see “Silver Manipulation the worst in history – Ted Butler”).

Unless and until there is such a full and complete audit, the only rational assumption for investors is this supposed “tripling”of inventories is totally illusory, which also means that the “bullion” that is claimed to be held by these bullion-ETFs is also illusory.

As I have also mentioned before, it is elementary economics than any “good” which is undervalued will be over-consumed (relative to its current price). Thus, we have TWO extremely important dynamics which are setting up this sector for a final “implosion” of the criminal conspiracy by the anti-precious metals cabal.

First, price-suppression means the (actual) tiny inventories of silver are still declining not increasing. It is simply absurd to claim that with record, investment demand and declining mine production (due to the dramatic cuts in base metals production) that inventories are increasing. The under-pricing of silver simply confirms this trend.

Secondly, with real inventories only 1/3rd of what is claimed by the Manipulators, continuing to under-price silver (through continued manipulation) must result in a supply “squeeze” which inevitably causes the price to “spike” (and begin to correct toward some sort of medium-term equilibrium). Given that there has been no similar depletion of gold stockpiles (merely the transfer of ownership), it is far more likely that the final defeat of the anti-gold cabal will be accomplished via a default in silver markets.

The BIG question in the minds of all precious metals “bulls” is when and how will this final victory occur?

Many commentators have pointed to the rigged Comex markets in New York as the place where the final destruction of the Manipulators will occur. However, with the short positions of the bullion-banks, and their (supposed) “custodial agreements” with the bullion-ETFs being “two sides of the same coin”, then implosion could originate in either component of this fraudulent manipulation.

A bullion-default at the Comex (or “Crimex”, as some like to call it) is a very simple scenario. The Comex is essentially selling its phony, “paper” futures for less than any other bullion market. Thus, at some point, large buyers will simply step into this market and continue relentless, heavy buying until default occurs.

Specifically, there would be a “failure to deliver” of bullion to a buyer (or buyers) – who chose to hold their futures contract until expiry, and thus take “physical” delivery of real bullion. As has been reported by several commentators, apparently such a default nearly occurred just weeks ago (see “Did ECB save Deutsche Bank from Comex gold-default?”).

There has been a great deal of frustration among the “gold bugs” (in particular) that such a final “show-down” has not already taken place. However, perhaps we would all be more patient in this respect if we were to try to put ourselves in the position of such big “players”.

Looking at silver, based on fundamentals, it is totally obvious that silver is headed for a spectacular explosion in its price. At a time of record demand for gold and silver, there are lower inventories of silver (relative to gold and in absolute terms) than at any time in centuries. Simultaneously, the gold/silver price ratio is more unfavorable for silver than at nearly any time in history, currently over 60:1. The long-term price ratio (over thousands of years) is 15:1. Additionally, as “elements” in the Earth’s crust, silver is only 17 times as plentiful as gold. Thus, a 60:1 ratio is not remotely sustainable, even over the medium term.

Therefore, armed with the knowledge that investing in silver will yield a huge windfall for all long-term investors, do you (as a large “player” in the silver market) force the inevitable implosion now (and “kill” the proverbial “goose that lays the silver eggs”) – or, do you patiently use the Manipulators game against them: buying as much grossly undervalued silver as you can from these criminals, before their inevitable self-destruction?

From this perspective, it is suddenly much less automatic that the demise of the Manipulators will occur at the Crimex.

I would remind people about an event which went practically unreported last year in North America: at the time of AIG‘s near-bankruptcy, the European bullion-ETFs “guaranteed” by AIG briefly plunged in value – to a price MUCH lower than the nominal price of the bullion they (supposedly) held. The reason? Investors were “betting” in a clearly visible manner that if AIG was forced into bankruptcy it would not be able to honour its “custodian agreements” with these bullion-ETFs – leaving the investors in these funds holding paper and not bullion.

Thus, the outrageously expensive bail-out of AIG (over $180 BILLION, and counting) was not undertaken solely in order to secretly funnel roughly $10 billion into the vaults of Goldman Sachs. It was also bailed-out to prevent a domino-like chain of events. All it will take is for one “bullion-ETF” to default, and then the entire scheme/scam of the Manipulators would inevitably collapse.

The sequence of events is obvious: after seeing one group of bullion-ETF investors wiped-out (or nearly so) by fraud, then obviously the unit-holders for all (so-called) bullion-ETFs would demand thorough and honest audits of the bullion-banks who are essentially running these scams.

Even if the bullion-banks could scrounge-up enough bullion to cover their “custodial agreements”, there would be little if anything left over to “cover” their much larger “short” positions. With “blood in the water”, futures-buyers would obviously immediately start lining up for “delivery” at the Crimex – hoping to be the last buyer to grab some real bullion before the Manipulators were completely wiped out.

Thus, there appear to be three very plausible scenarios leading to the destruction of the Manipulators, and the explosion of the price of gold and silver.

  1. The frequently-predicted default at the Comex;
  2. The bankruptcy of one (or more) of the bullion-banks; or
  3. A default of one or more bullion-ETFs through a thorough audit being performed.

Given what the U.S. government has already shown it was willing to spend to “defend” AIG’s custodial agreements with bullion-ETFs, the second scenario would appear to have the least probability of occurring. However, there is still somewhere close to a quadrillion dollars of derivatives floating around in Wall Street’s private “casino”. Any surprise-implosion of a position in this market could create such unimaginable losses (hundreds of times higher than those of AIG) that a bail-out would simply be impossible to ram-through the corrupt, U.S. government – without literally setting off a second “American Revolution”.

Personally, I see the default of the bullion-ETFs to be slightly more likely than any other scenario for destroying the Manipulators. As with any scam, the larger it grows, the greater the likelihood of exposure. When bullion-ETFs were first created, their claim that they could buy infinite amounts of bullion, with zero “premiums” and store all this bullion for zero storage costs attracted little attention.

With the holdings of these bullion-ETFs rapidly approaching the total annual production of precious metals miners, and already being larger than the national stockpiles of almost every nation on Earth, this obviously-suspect “business model” will attract increasing doubt and skepticism among informed investors – until even blind/deaf/dumb “regulators” are forced to conduct a reputable audit of this sector.

For those hoping to read precisely when and where the Manipulators will meet their final defeat, I suppose you will be disappointed. Sorry, but I’m an “economist” – not a “psychic”. However, hopefully readers will derive some use out of this commentary.

First, because of depleted inventories, it is much more likely that it will be a silver default which “kills” the Manipulators, instead of a gold default. Secondly, as precious metals investors wait for this inevitable occurrence, you are reminded that there are three potential developments to watch for – and not just a “failure to deliver” at the Comex.

In the meantime, any/every investor who continues to add to his (or her) precious metals positions (preferably during short-term dips) is guaranteed to be richly rewarded. Given the extremely uncertain times in which we live, the reward of financial security is “precious”, indeed.

Disclosure: I hold no position in bullion-ETFs.

===================================================

One last note- I didn’t forget my promise, here is another HOT stock to buy and forget (hold). (WTMNF) a junior explorer West Timmins Mining. Currently trading in the .70 to .80 cent level.  I have mentioned before load up on the junior and mid-tier Precious Metals Producers, but to throw in some good exploration companies. West Timmins fits in the latercategory. They have the financing in place and are currently drilling. Here is a copy of one of their press releases from May 12th, 2009. I think it speaks for itself. -Good Investing! -jschulmansr 

WTM Intersects 13.64 g/t (0.40 oz/t) over 8.20 metres (26.90 feet) on North Zone Target, 100% owned Thorne Property, Timmins, Ontario

Bonanza grades confirmed including  41.30 g/t (1.20 oz/t) gold over 2.40 metres (7.87 feet) 

West Timmins Project drill program to be expanded

(Vancouver, May 12, 2009) – West Timmins Mining Inc. (WTM:TSX) (“WTM” or the “Company”) today announced that bonanza grade gold mineralization has been intersected from the North Zone on its 100% owned Thorne Property, part of the Company’s West Timmins Gold Project, in Timmins, Ontario. All three holes testing the North Zone returned high-grade gold mineralization, highlighted by hole GS09-31 which returned 8.20 metres (26.90 feet) grading 13.64 g/t (0.40 oz/ton) gold, including 2.40 metres (7.87 feet) grading 41.30 g/t (1.20 oz/t) gold.
 
“The North Zone adds another zone of high grade gold mineralization over significant widths on our 100% owned property package in Timmins. These results continue to confirm the presence of multiple high grade gold zones located in close proximity to each other in the West Timmins District. This clustering of high-grade gold zones is perhaps the single most significant characteristic of the Timmins Camp. History does appear to be repeating itself in the west end of the Camp” said Darin Wagner, President and CEO of West Timmins Mining. “WTM will immediately expand the scale and scope of our drill program on our 100% owned properties in Timmins and welcomes the recently announced expansion of the drill program on the adjacent Thunder Creek Joint Venture.”
 
WTM now has six expanding zones of high-grade gold mineralization located within 3 kilometres of each other in the West Timmins District: the Rusk and Porphyry Gold Zones on the Thunder Creek Joint Venture, the High-grade and Central sub-zones within the Golden River West Zone, the Hwy 144 Zone where high-grade intercepts have recently been reported and now confirmation of continuity and bonanza grades from the North Zone.

The North Zone is located along the northern flank of the Golden River Trend on WTM’s 100% owned Thorne Property. Historic work in the North Zone area has been re-interpreted based in large part on the recent discoveries of high-grade gold mineralization on the Company’s adjacent Thunder Creek Property and within the Golden River West Zone. This work has lead to the identification of a steeply plunging zone of high-grade gold mineralization. The North Zone mineralization is characterized by silica veining and flooding associated with significant visible gold mineralization and is very similar to many of the vein-style gold deposits in the Timmins Camp. Drilling has also intersected additional gold bearing structures beneath the North Zone, the NL1 and NL2 structures, which remain open for additional testing – again characteristic of gold systems in the Camp.

On-going exploration activities are focussing on the area between the Timmins West (now Timmins) gold deposit and the Destor-Porcupine Fault, located 5.0 kilometres to the south, where multiple gold-bearing systems have been confirmed within WTM’s extensive West Timmins Project land holdings. The Destor-Porcupine Fault is a deep-seat fault system which can be traced throughout the entire Timmins Camp.

Quality Control and Assurance

Geochemical results reported are from halved drill core samples collected from WTM’s 100% owned Thorne Property, part of the Company’s West Timmins Gold Project. Core samples were collected by employees and consultants in the employ of the Company and are subject to the Company’s quality control program. Sampling was conducted on site at the Company’s exploration office in Timmins, Ontario and sealed samples were transported to Swastika Labs preparation facilities in Swastika, Ontario. Samples were assayed for gold by standard fire assay- ICP finish with a 30 gram charge. Gold values in excess of 3.0 g/t were re-analyzed by fire assay with gravimetric finish and intercepts returning in excess of 8.0 g/t, or displaying visible gold mineralization, were re-analyzed by pulp screen metallic assaying for greater accuracy. The remaining half of the drill core is stored on-site at the Company’s Timmins exploration office. 

For quality control purposes blank, duplicate and analytical control standards were inserted into the sample sequence at irregular intervals. Mr. Darin Wagner (M.Sc., P.Geo), the Company’s President, has acted as non-independent qualified person for this news release. The qualified person has visited the project site, examined the intervals reported and, has verified that any significant analytical discrepancies have been resolved and that the reported results meet the Company’s quality control standards.

About West Timmins Mining Inc. (www.westtimminsmining.com):
 
WTM is focussed on the exploration and development of district-scale gold projects in the major gold camps of North America. The Company is advancing the high-grade Rusk and Porphyry Gold discoveries on its Thunder Creek joint venture in Timmins, Ontario and continues to test the nearby 5.0 kilometre long Golden River Trend. WTM also has active gold exploration projects in Mexico, highlighted by the high-grade Lluvia de Oro gold-silver Project in Chihuahua State. West Timmins Mining is based in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol WTM.
 
On behalf of the Board of
West Timmins Mining Inc.
 
“Darin W. Wagner”
 
Darin W. Wagner
President and Chief Executive Officer
For further information contact:
John Toporowski, Manager, Investor Relations
West Timmins Mining Inc., Vancouver
Tel: (604) 685-8311 / Toll Free: (866) 685-8311
E-mail: jtoporowski@westtimminsmining.com
 
The TSX has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or adequacy of this news release, which has been prepared by management.
 
For further details on West Timmins Mining Inc. please refer to prior disclosure at www.sedar.com. The securities described in this press release have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under any U.S. state securities laws, and such securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent an exemption from such registration requirements.
 
This press release contains forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities regulation, including statements regarding the future activities of the Company. Forward looking statements reflect the current beliefs and expectations of management and are identified by the use of words including “will”, “expected to”, “plans”, “planned” and other similar words. Actual results may differ significantly. The achievement of the results expressed in forward looking statements is subject to a number of risks, including those described in the Company’s annual information form as filed with the Canadian securities regulators which are available at www.sedar.com. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon forward looking statements.  
>READ PDF – Complete With Maps and the Entire Press release

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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What Happened to Reality?

01 Monday Jun 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, Today, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Wow! Stocks continue to hang tough with perhaps some manipulation late Friday at the close to help kickstart todays big spike upward. So here we are again, $8750 (DJI) is big key test, failure here and we will then start the much needed retracement in stocks. There still is a bit of more room upwards to get to the 68% retracement band. I would definitely recommend pulling your stops up tight and maybe consider locking some more of your profits. This market movement has the feeling of a head and shoulders pattern and at the tip of the middle of the “W”. The wave extended itself from a 3 wave intermediate wave to a 5 waver. Be careful, very careful here as gold, oil, and the bond markets are all telling us the “other shoe is about to drop.

For Gold, hanging tough at this level and think we’ll see a push up into the $1000 level again as early as this week. Hi- Ho Silver! Love it! Hope you all bought (CDE) when I told you to. Even now with the 10-1 reverse definitely a long term profit machine! Keep accumulating, especially among junior and mid-tier producers. Many still selling for book or slighly above. Make sure have current or are about to begin production.  I would also throw in a few explorer’s for good measure. Same thing for Oil producers, find those with decent production as they will have some very tempting takeover plays.

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Flirting With Disaster!

28 Thursday May 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, EGO, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, G-20, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Iran, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Latest News, majors, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NASDQ, natural gas, NGC, Nuclear Energy, Nuclear Weapons, NXG, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, rare earth metals, recession, risk, run on banks, S&P 500, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, SWC, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, uranium, Uranium Miners, volatility, warrants, XAU

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

     Key Test Today! Stocks are Flirting with disaster, 8268 (DJIA) is the neckline of a head and shoulders. If (DJIA) closes beneath that, then we are definitely starting the next leg back down. Nothing to hold the freefall except some support at 8000 (DJIA) and then secondary confirmation of a new down move if breaks the next support at (DJIA) 7840, 7800, and then 7550. Take your profits now before you ride the DJIA right back down again.

     Gold and Silver however are poised to take off! If Gold successfully closes above $980 then next stop – new ALL time highs. As I mentioned yesterday hre is what I see for Gold. I predict that Gold will break $978- $980 and push up to approximately $1075 to $1090 on the first leg. We will see a normal retracement down to $950- $975 and then blast off to $1150 -$1250. I personally think with the hyper-inflation shoe about to drop, coupled with the remaining half of the derivative crunch. We can easily see $2250 to $2500 Gold by the end of the year. Keep accumulating Gold and Precious metals especially the junior and mid-tier producers. There are still companies out there selling at or below book value.

     In case you missed it yesterday here is the stock tip that I was offered along with an advisory service costing $297 year. This is the stock in their “special report”. just came across a sweet little play in the cobalt industry, supplies are dwindling fast and there will be a shortage just at the time this company comes on line with production. This company will have the only high grade cobalt production in the United States and will be able to supply approximately 12-14% of Cobalt needs for the USA. If you check out what Cobalt is used for you will understand why this stock has the potential to be a Grand Slam. Production is anticipated to be approximately 1525 tons per year with a 10yr life based on current reserves. I just received an offer to buy this tip along with an advisory service for $297 yr. I’ll give it to you for free. That’s just the kind of guy I am, LOL! The name of the company is Formation Capital Corp. Trading symbol (FCACF). I just picked up a bunch @ .35 cents/share, but as always do your due diligence, read the prospectus and company reports. If nothing else put (FCACF) on your watch list / radar. – Good Investing! -jschulmansr

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Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you 

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a  steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

  • ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault  

====================================================

 Now For some reports…

Jim Sinclair: 9 Immediate Predictions For Gold – Seeking Alpha

By: Peter Cooper of Arabian Money.net

Jim Sinclair is the doyen of gold experts. It is interesting to see a very clear timeframe for the gold price posted on his website yesterday:

  1. Gold reacts as currency support for the dollar enters mid June to a slow decline (that is the official definition of a strong dollar policy, really).
  2. End of 2nd week going into the beginning of the 3rd week of June Gold launches towards and this time through the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders formation.
  3. Gold rises to $1224 where it hesitates.
  4. The OTC derivative market takes on the dollar as short sellers into dollar support.
  5. This OTC derivative currency short position builds.
  6. t is the US dollar where Armstrong will get his WATERFALL.
  7. The main selling takes place when Israel makes a major miscalculation.
  8. Hyperinflation is always and will continue to be a currency event.
  9. Hyperinflation will be a product of the upcoming massive OTC derivative short dollar raid.

“Should I be correct in the gold price action going into late June, it will fit Armstrong’s criterion for a move to $5,000”, adds Mr. Sinclair whose predictions are not always right, and who got similarly carried away last summer.

But there is the old mantra in forecasting that if you repeat something often enough then it will be bound to happen in the end.

And to be fair to Mr. Sinclair, the gold positive scenario stacking up right now does look unstoppable.

===================================================

My Note: Sounds pretty darn close to my own predictions- Amazing! 

-jschulmansr

===================================================

Gold Battle Lines Drawn at $1000 – Again —Seeking Alpha

By: James West of Midas Letter

Here we go again. The forces of legitimate money versus the incumbent purveyors of the candy floss economy squared off at the $1,000 an ounce line over which yet another battle will be fought. Arrayed against either side are formidable new elements and tried and true old ones. As usual, the first volley has been catapulted over the walls of the hucksters by the defenders of the essential timeless truth of gold’s naturally stored value against the counterfeit paper currencies.

The liabilities of the enemy have increased, and the short positions in the COMEX market are sufficiently stacked that the big bank defenders simply cannot allow gold to win decisively. G7 governments are allied against gold to a man, while emerging economic behemoths China and Russia stand in opposition.

In particular, China’s revelations that it has been in a continuous accumulation mode for the last several years and is now the fifth largest sovereign reserve of gold has created an impetus in the gold camp that has been seen lacking in the past. Institutional and sovereign investment entities now perceive a floor in the gold price based on this information, and one must beg the question as to why China would make such a revelation when it threatens to undermine the value of its $2 trillion in U.S. debt holdings.

China has also been careful to avoid buying gold on the international market, for fear, it says, of creating a stampede into the precious metals that would immediately increase the cost of its stated intention to continue accumulating gold towards the backing of the yuan (renmibi) as a global reserve currency.

Yet that is precisely what has happened. Ostensibly, the justification for tipping their hand exists in the fact that they’ve resigned themselves to the fact that selling poison toys and pet foods to Americans in exchange for a currency that loses value like light into a black hole is an acceptable if imperfect transaction. With $50 billion a year in interest payments from the U.S., they can hedge the risk buy using it to buy gold.

With the perceived floor arguably at $850, downside risk is limited in gold far more so than in U.S. treasuries, which, if mainstream media is to be taken as remotely credible, is the current favorite of safe haven investors.

‘Safe Haven’ is about to get painted with same fragrant brush as ‘AAA-rated’ investments.

Goldbugs are salivating at the prospect of vindication, but seasoned veterans of the war know that the governments and central banks arrayed against gold are not fair fighters. Since the largest players in the futures market occupy both sides of the contract, and never take delivery of the physical gold, they can orchestrate a perpetual negative sentiment towards gold by driving the future price downward by simply amping up the short positions, thus making gold appear poised for a sell-off. This has been standard operating procedure for the last decade, and it is interesting to note that ever-bigger short positions are having less influence over shorter durations before the bulls shrug off the flimsy performance and take gold higher.

Critics and observers of this U.S. Dollar image management program point to the fact that such activity, while shoring up demand for U.S. Dollar debt in the short term, effectively undermines the entire global economy, and is among the fundamental causes of financial crises such as the housing collapse and the whole current global financial fiasco.

Proponents of this manipulation, who are increasingly legion in number, correctly predict an inevitable bursting of the damn catalyzed by investment demand overwhelming the short positions, forcing them to buy and cover to limit losses, which will, in itself, stimulate the gold price even further.

With the limited oversight and feeble reporting standards of the CFTC, the ploy is facilitated by complicit (or ignorant) regulators who ensure data is obfuscated and disclosure limited. It has been this collective effort on the part of the Dollar Defenders that continuously defeats gold’s advances, repeatedly castrating the bulls and sending them whimpering to lick their wounds and regroup.

But China is now leading the charge, and the bet is that they’re willing to forgo the lost value of their USD holdings to decisively undermine the global reserve currency once and for all and replace it with the Yuan, a move that would effectively mark the beginning in the shift of the global balance of power from west to east.

The United States, overextended militarily across the Middle East and Asia, with new fronts threatening to open in Iran and Pakistan, is perilously close to an international nervous breakdown. China’s opportunity is to ride to the rescue bearing smiles and steamed pork buns while dividing up what is left of the American industrial asset pool.

Our leadership of the last decade (or more accurately, absence thereof), eager to lubricate the workings of multinational financial interests, have inadvertently played into the patient hands of their biggest creditor by prostituting the national currency shamelessly to the point where every nation in the world can see what used up piece of spent jet trash the old USD has become.

While mainstream media dismisses the idea of the Yuan replacing the dollar as the international monetary standard, those of us who have tuned out at the perception management program on CNN recognize the event as halfway accomplished.

The truly explosive moment for gold will occur when the Chinese, at their discretion, decide to spring the trap, and abandon USD completely in favor of gold, suddenly spiking the price of gold straight north in tandem with the complete collapse of the U.S. dollar.

Don’t pay any attention to the second rate hacks trying to claim credit for predicting the fall…it’s been predicted repeatedly throughout history from Nostradamus to Roubini. Any student of economic history with 20/20 vision could see this coming, and here it is. “I told you so” is a waste of time. Who’s offering a solution?

Whether or not this particular battle at the Great Wall of $1,000 an ounce is the mother of all battles remains to be seen. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and while G7 governments collude to retain power, the unforeseeable is the greatest threat to gold.

That being said, veteran observers are optimistic, to say the least.

According to Bill Murphy, intrepid soldier of gold wars and standard bearer for the Gold Anti-trust Action Committee,

 

The Gold Cartel is giving it all they have no, as evidenced by the sharply rising gold open interest on the Comex … up some 23,000 contracts on Wednesday and Thursday. They are doing all they can to counter new spec buying.

My hunch is the next time we see $1,000, and that could be very soon, gold ought to take off from there, giving us more upside dynamic daily moves. The reasons to own physical gold are off the charts … HUGE investment demand, shrinking visible central bank supply (unrelated to the cabal), shrinking mine supply, shrinking dollar, concerns over sovereign wealth debt, a horrible US economy, and a US printing press that is going flat out and will have to for some time to come.

In my opinion, all gold has to do is to stay over $1,000 for a few days, and then all kinds of bells and whistles go off.

 

Bill is not the only one who thinks the breakthrough is at hand. Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com, himself a historically prescient oracle of market crashes agrees and warns that the stock market will be the first casualty of the new financial reality.

 

If you take a look at the dollar and the long bond, it looks as if they jumped off a cliff. This isn’t gold going up, it’s the dollar and bonds going down. When the market wakes up the stock market is going to take a giant dump. No more fake rally.

 

Investors by now should be well equipped to read the writing on the wall. Whether gold breaks through $1,000 and holds there, charts new territory at much higher levels, or is beaten back down through the offices of JP Morgan (JPM), HSBC (HBC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), is irrelevant.

Gold producer stocks are up, on average, over 22% this year in the Midas Model Portfolios, while intermediate producers and close-to-production juniors have piled on gains ranging from 20 to 200%, all since January this year.

You won’t hear anybody pointing that fact out on television, and you won’t hear that from your broker, in most cases. But the lesson is clear. Gold bullion is the place to be for wealth preservation, and gold producers and explorers is where risk capital is going to see utterly stupendous gains this year.

If you buy the hype of Wall Street and Washington and wade into the general equities markets, you have nobody to blame but yourself for the heavy losses you will surely sustain.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

  • ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

 Gold vs Silver: There Is No Debate — Seeking Alpha

By: Market Sniper of We Just Trade

It is mildly amusing that when the precious metals markets are in confirmed uptrends, the perennial debate of whether it is best to own gold or silver always comes to the fore.

Both gold and silver, historically, have been money (merely utility in exchange). Gold in nature is approximately 15 times as scarce as silver. All the gold mined since the dawn of man, if molded into a cube, is said to fit inside a baseball diamond. Silver would nearly fill the stadium. China, now the world’s largest gold producer, had a silver standard as gold was more plentiful in China than silver, a bias that the west took full advantage of up through the 1870s. Silver imports by the Spanish Empire from their New World holdings were so large that it collapsed the European silver market. England, then on a bi-metalic standard, quickly switched to a pure gold standard. The Spanish Empire never recovered from the experience.

In the United States, the debate raged incessantly as to how the ratio would be “fixed” after the discovery of the Comstock Lode with western mining interests’ best known champion, Senator William Jennings Bryan, being the foremost proponent of a lower ratio. Seems it is an old debate. The good news is, you can own both. If/when the world returns to honest, stable money, you will need both: gold for the larger acquisitions and silver to make change.

While we await such an event, ratio trade the two metals to increase your holdings of precious metals.The ratio fluctuates wildly over time. In the 1970s and 1980s I used 28:1 and 40:1 as points that I would switch. At 40:1, I would be in silver. When the ratio dropped down to 28:1, I would exchange silver holdings for gold. Each time I switched, my stack of precious metals would increase in size even after dealing with the spread.

Find a precious metals dealer who will work with you on that. You maybe able to locate one that will only charge the spread on one of the metals and not both when you switch. Since then, the ratio has moved up. At one point it was even at 100:1. I now use 45:1 and 70:1 as switch points. See your tax accountant as to the benefits of such a program. Think 1031 Tax Deferred Exchange.

For those who do not want to break the rear axle of your automobile moving your silver when it comes time to switch, think about using ETFs that only reflect the price of the two metals. There are a variety of ways to accomplish this, from being in just one or the other to being long one and short the other. IF your objective is to accumulate the actual physical metals, do not use ETFs as a substitute for physical ownership. Rather, take profits from your switching trades and purchase the actual metals themselves. Gold vs. silver? No debate. Accumulate both.

Disclosure: long physical silver and gold

===================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

 ==================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.

Good Investing!–  jschulmansr

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I’m Back- Time to Play!

27 Wednesday May 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, agricultural commodities, alternate energy, ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bear Trap, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, EGO, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, John Embry, Julian D.W. Phillips, Junior Gold Miners, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Brimelow, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, rare earth metals, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, SWC, Technical Analysis, Ted Bultler, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, Today, U.S., U.S. Dollar, uranium, Uranium Miners, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on I’m Back- Time to Play!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

I’m back but before we get into the markets, I want to give everyone Thanks for your prayers for my Dad. We though we were about to lose him. So, I arranged for everyone to come out and see him, even his Grandkids. The visits perked him up tremendously. I continued to stay with him along with my wife. We took him out to his favorite restaurants and other places. So for the 3 weeks we were there he gained 16lbs, his color came back, and his body even started to produce Red Blood Cells. Even though he still needs occasional transfusions, was a major step in the right direction.He has regained his will to fight instead of giving up and slowly dying. So a very heartfelt Thank You to all who were praying! Each of you is very appreciated and I know God will Bless You manifestly in return…

Now for the markets… Wow! these last three weeks have been very interesting! When was the last time you have seen Stocks, Gold, and Oil rally at the same time? I will use the Dow (DJI) for my post today and provide links to some excellent analysis on the S&P 500 and Crude later in the post. Once again 8500 is the key marker for the Dow, failure to close strongly and move higher will mean we have a head and shoulders top here. A breakout above 8640 will confirm continued uptrend. Conversely a break below 8265 will mean the beginning of a strong correction to the 8000 level first and then 7850. If screams below that then down to 7500 with a test of the low around 6547. Personally I predict we will test the lows of 6550 first before we will ever see the DJI at 9000 or even 10,000. Sorry you bulls out there that is what I see in the charts.

For my favorite complex of Gold, Silver and Precious metals, a breakout over $978 signals a new strong push over $1000, or at least another test. Personally, I like the action of Gold here, building a nice base at $950. I predict that Gold will break $978 and push up to approximately $1075 to $1090 on the first leg. We will see a normal retracement down to $950- $975 and then blast off to $1150 -$1250. I personally think with the inflation shoe about to drop, coupled with the remaining half of the derivative crunch. We can easily see $2250 to $2500 Gold by the end of the year. Keep accumulating Gold and Precious metals especially the junior and mid-tier producers. There are still companies out there selling at or below book value.

I just came across a sweet little play in the cobalt industry, supplies are dwindling fast and there will be a shortage just at the time this company comes on line with production. This company will have the only high grade cobalt production in the United States and will be able to supply approximately 12-14% of Cobalt needs for the USA. If you check out what Cobalt is used for you will understand why this stock ahs the potential to be a Grand Slam. Production is anticipated to be approximately 1525 tons per year with a 10yr life based on current reserves. I just received an offer to buy this tip along with an advisory service for $297 yr. I’ll give it to you for free. That’s just the kind of guy I am, LOL! The name of the company is Formation Capital Corp. Trading symbol (FCACF). I just picked up a bunch @ .35 cents/share, but as always do your due diligence, read the prospectus and company reports. If nothing else put (FCACF) on your watch list / radar.

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

==================================================

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you 

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

  • ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault  

====================================================

Now for some current news…

Peter Schiff on $1000 Gold and Senate Bid – Gold Stock Bull

Source: Gold Stock Bull and Fox News

Peter Schiff was on Fox Business today and made the following points:

* Gold to break $1,000 soon and push much higher this time
* 50% or more of Peter Schiff’s liquid assets are in gold/gold stocks
* Most people should have 10-20%, more if you are young and aggressive
* Many gold stocks could go up 50 or 100 times from current levels
* At some point, the rest of world will stop lending the United States money
* America is in for a rude awakening, when we have to return to producing and saving again
* It is impossible for the U.S. government to pay back its debt. Default is only option.
* Peter Schiff might run for Senate in Connecticut

===================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

===================================================

What Is Even More Enticing than Gold? SILVER! — Seeking Alpha

By: Andrew Mickey of Q1 Publishing

The dollar is out. The U.S. dollar index has fallen 5% in the last week.

Treasury bonds are quickly falling out of favor. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has climbed from 2.5% to almost 3.5% since March signaling inflation fears and an unwillingness to fund ballooning government borrowing.

Gold is hot. Gold prices are back on the rise and gold stocks have done even better.

Is this a sign of things to come?

Well, if you take a look at the mainstream headlines, you’d think so.

An editorial headline on Bloomberg proclaims, “Dollar is dirt, Treasuries are toast, and AAA is gone.”

Even CBS News is warning, “Inflation could be coming to a U.S. dollar near you.”

To me, it seems just like a typical overreaction in the short-term.

Yes, the long-run trend for the dollar is down as the Fed keeps printing more and more of them and monetizing government debt. And yes, the prospects for gold get brighter and brighter with each passing week.

But there’s no reason to lose your head here. It’s going to take a few years for all this to play out. And the window of opportunity is still wide open to buy precious metals, real assets, and assets not denominated in the dollar (like ADRs).

That’s why, despite the strong interest in gold at the moment, I encourage you to continue to look for value in the sector. Right now, there seems to be some exceptional value in an asset which is so undervalued, it could outpace gold by 400% or more.

I’m talking about Silver.

When Gold Climbs, Silver Soars

In the past few weeks gold has been getting a lot of attention. With all the big money finally taking a liking to gold, the attention is justified. Remember, a turn in the big money’s attitude towards gold must happen before gold can break through the $1,000 mark and stay there.

The excitement surrounding gold’s surge has only pushed silver further onto the back burner. (You don’t hear about any major hedge funds loading up on silver do you?) And that’s the point. Gold is hot and silver is – in a relative sense – not.

So if you want to find an investment which isn’t so hot but still has a lot of potential in an inflationary environment, you’d want to look at silver. When you do, it won’t take long to realize silver – at current levels – could easily trounce gold in the months and years ahead.

That’s right. Silver has a much brighter future than gold. All you have to do is look at the silver / gold ratio to see how potentially lucrative the situation has become.

Ratios Don’t Lie

We’ve looked at a few ratios in the past. The reason is because ratio analysis can help identify value even in volatile markets. For instance, we looked at how the gold / oil ratio was signaling oil was a buy back in January. Oil prices are up almost 50% since then.

We looked at gold / gold stocks ratio back in December. We saw that gold stocks were significantly undervalued relative to gold. Since early December, gold is up a respectable 22% while gold stocks – as a group – have rebounded 70%.

That’s the value of ratio analysis. They can quickly show you how undervalued some assets are relative to others. And if you’re able to find them at extreme points, you can get into a trade or investment with less risk and greater upside.

Right now, the gold / silver ratio (the measure of how many ounces of silver can be bought for an ounce of gold) is at an extreme and working its way back to historical norms.

The chart below shows the gold / silver ratio is slowly working its way back to a much more normal level:

Gold-Silver

As you can see, the gold / silver ratio hung around 50 for most of 2008. Then the credit crunch threw everything out of whack and now it’s slowly working its way back to normal. But this chart doesn’t show the real upside in silver. That comes from the long-run average.

Over the long term, the gold / silver ratio has averaged about 30. That means one ounce of gold would buy about 30 ounces of silver. Today, with silver at $14.60 an ounce and gold at $953, the gold / silver ratio is 65. In other words, an ounce of gold would buy 65 ounces of silver. That’s more than twice the long-run average.

Silver prices would have to double just to be in line with the long run average.

Silver Slingshot

But here’s the kicker, when gold races, the gold to silver ratio gets flipped around. During the last precious metals bull market in the late 70s and early 80s the gold / silver ratio hit lows of 15.

That means if gold goes nowhere (granted, chances are pretty slim of that), silver could easily shoot up to $50 an ounce. That’s a 400% move for silver without gold moving up a single dollar.

Here’s the thing though, gold isn’t staying where it is. Over the next few years, gold is going much higher. And silver is going to go even higher. Silver will slingshot past gold.

Think about it. With a gold / silver ratio of 15…

At that ratio, silver would be at $66 when gold hits $1,000.

$1,500 gold = $100 silver.

$2,000 gold = $132 silver.

So if you expect gold to do well, you’ve got to expect silver to do even better.

According to the historical relationship between gold and silver, if gold does well, silver will do exponentially better. In past gold bull markets, silver prices zoomed past gold in relative terms. There’s no reason to expect this time to be any different.

In Search of Value

In the end, precious metals have been one of the few sectors which have maintained an uptrend through all this. As the long run prospects for the U.S. dollar continue to worsen, I expect the uptrend to continue. However, I expect this to take a longer time to play out than most.

Just take a look at what happened earlier this week. The Financial Times reported China is continuing to buy U.S. Treasuries. Granted, they’re switching to short-term durations, but they haven’t even come close to invoking their “nuclear” option yet and probably won’t for a long while.

We’re in the midst of a slow and steady decline of the dollar. The Fed is printing dollars to fund the growing government deficits and there haven’t been any significant inflationary consequences…yet.

That will change and it’s not too late to get prepared. Now is the time to buy precious metals and precious metals miners for your portfolio. Right now, with the gold / silver ratio indicating silver as undervalued and gold a hot topic, silver is a bit more enticing.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

  • ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
  • ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
  • ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
  • ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault  

====================================================

                                        – Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox. Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

Click Here For Your Free Analysis

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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Hey Buddy Got a Jack I can Use? – Fixaflat 2

23 Thursday Apr 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, agricultural commodities, ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, Barack Obama, bear market, Bear Trap, bilderbergers, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, capitalism, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, Council on Foreign Relations, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, EGO, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, G-20, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, heating oil, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Latest News, majors, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, Market Bubble, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NASDQ, New World Order, NGC, NWO, NXG, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, Short Bonds, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, SLW, small caps, socialism, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, SWC, Technical Analysis, The Fed, TIPS, Today, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on Hey Buddy Got a Jack I can Use? – Fixaflat 2

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Hey Buddy, got a spare jack I can use? The fixaflat turned out to be nothing but hot air and evaporated! So now I need a jack to change the tire so I can get this economy back on the road.

Some very interesting conspiracy theories coming out about Goldman Sachs and Paulson, which leads one to question why did the AIG exec committ suicide? There have been stories on the net that he really was murdered even!

My question is what did he know about Freddy Mac’s books? How much of our taxpayer money was diverted elsewhere? Who are the people whose pockets got lined? Could this scandal be pointing back to Mr. Dodd and Mr. Frank? Mr. Cuomo here is something else you need to be investigating (if you’re not already). 

We are now hearing about Bank of America being forced into buying Merrill Lynch! The rats are Ratting! I will say it again the other shoe is getting ready to drop. They are busy juggling it like a seaming hot potato, but it will drop.

Well the Dow managed to eke out a little gain in spite of more bad news for the economy. For me, it was a great opportunity to buy more (SKF) at $58.89 and I decided to also buy some (DXD) at $56.23.

The DOW may make another try at 8000 but it will fail and (DXD) will do quite nicely thankyou.

For (SKF) I’m looking at a gap that needs to be filled around the $90 mark so that is my first target for now. 

For Gold it broke $900 and closed above that. Next target $928.00 then $950, then $980. If all of those are successfully broken (which I think they will), then look for new all time highs!

That’s it for now- Have a Great Evening! – Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

 ===================================================

 A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.===================================================

 

                                         – Trend Analysis Revealed –

 

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox. Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

Click Here For Your Free Analysis

 

===================================================

Bespoke’s Commodity Snapshot – Seeking Alpha

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Below are our trading range charts for ten major commodities. The green shading represents 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity’s 50-day moving average. When the price moves above or below this green shading, the commodity is in extreme overbought or oversold territory.
As shown, after reaching overbought territory a few weeks ago, oil has pulled back to just above the middle of its trading range. Natural gas, on the other hand, can’t get out of the downtrend that it has been in since last June. After trending higher since last October, gold and silver have recently moved to the bottom of their trading ranges, but they bounced nicely off of oversold territory a couple days ago. Platinum has held up better than gold and silver and is closer to the top of its trading range than the bottom. Copper continues to trend higher, along with orange juice, while corn, wheat, and coffee are in a sideways trading pattern.

Oilnatgas423

Goldsilv423

Platcopp423

Cornwheat423

Ojcof423

 

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Even Jack Bauer couldn’t stop ‘The Goldman Conspiracy’

By: Paul Farrell of MarketWatch.com

 

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Two mind-numbing fast-paced dramas. Two parallel worlds. One real, one fiction, both deadly. Jack Bauer, mythic hero of “24.” Dying from a deadly bio-pathogen leaked from weapons developed by Starkwood, a rogue mercenary army attacking the presidency, hell-bent on taking over America.

 

The other drama in play: “Hank the Hammer” Paulson, iconic Wall Street hero, a Trojan Horse placed inside Washington by Goldman Sachs as Treasury Secretary in control of America’s $15 trillion economy. Goldman, a modern dynasty with vast financial powers much like those once used by the de’ Medici, Rothschilds and Morgans to control nations.
Both dramas play high-stakes games with financial WMDs that have lethal consequences. Jack compresses thrills, kills and chills into 24 hours. Hank, Goldman and their army of Wall Street mercenaries move with equally blinding speed, heart-pounding action.
Drama? You bet.
Six short months ago Hank led an assault on Congress. The scene parallels one in “24:” Sangala War Lord Juma’s brazen attack inside the White House. But no AK-47s necessary.
The Hammer assaulted Congress with just a two-and-a-half page memo in hand. Like a crack special-ops warrior, he took down the enemy, demanding $750 billion, absolute control, total secrecy, no accountability and emergency powers to act immediately … warning that inaction was not an option, that collapse of America’s banking system was imminent, would bring down the global monetary system, pushing world’s economies into a “Great Depression II.”
Congress surrendered.
Here’s the whole plot:
Scene 1. American government is now run by the ‘Goldman Conspiracy’
Oh, you really think just I’m plotting a television series? Or just paranoid, exaggerating this power grab? You better read “The Usual Suspects,” Matthew Malone’s brilliant article in Portfolio magazine: He “exposed” the “Goldman Sachs ‘conspiracy’ to take over the U.S. financial system.” Read it in this context: America’s financial sector has exploded from 19% of corporate profits in 1986 to 41% today, becoming a magnet for every wannabe billionaire.
They know why Wall Street must control Washington.
Malone focuses on the incestuous “conspiracy” of Goldman alumni in Treasury, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, AIG, Citigroup, Washington lobbyists and politicians.
Scene 2. Huge conflicts motivating Wall Street’s ‘Trojan Horse’
And just in case you think any emphasis on The Hammer’s conflict of interest was invented purely to increase drama, please remember that he worked at Goldman for three decades after serving under Nixon. He got $38 million his last year as CEO in 2006 before becoming Treasury Secretary.
Then during the market meltdown six months ago the $700 million personal fortune he built at Goldman was threatened by Goldman’s huge $20 billion derivatives exposure at AIG: Suddenly his responsibilities at Treasury merged with a strong self-interest in protecting his personal fortune. AIG was “saved.”
Scene 3. Wall Street’s ‘quiet coup’ also runs world’s banking system
There’s another equally disturbing expose in “The Quiet Coup,” Simon Johnson’s great article in Atlantic magazine. A former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, Johnson also warns that America’s “financial industry has effectively captured our government” and is “blocking essential reform.”
Worse, he says that unless we break Wall Street’s stranglehold (unlikely in the new Washington) we will be unable “to prevent a true depression,” warning that “we’re running out of time,” echoing many of our predictions of the “Great Depression II” coming soon. See previous Paul B. Farrell.
Scene 4. Wall Street used the meltdown to take over America’s government
Matt Taibbi, author of “The Great Derangement,” captured this drama in a Rolling Stone piece, “The Big Takeover, how Wall Street insiders are using the bailout to stage a revolution.” A must-read:
“As complex as all the finances are, the politics aren’t hard to follow. By creating a crisis that can only be solved by those fluent in a language too complex for ordinary people to understand, the Wall Street crowd has turned the vast majority of Americans into non-participants in their own political future. … in the age of CDS and CBO, most of us are financial illiterates.”
Wall Street “used the crisis to effect a historic, revolutionary change in our political system — transforming a democracy into a two-tiered state, one with plugged-in financial bureaucrats above and clueless customers below.”
Scene 5. How Obama is keeping alive Bush’s ‘disaster capitalism’
Back in 2007 at the start of the meltdown, Hank was misleading us in Fortune: “This is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime.” In the real world, Naomi Klein, author of “The Shock Doctrine: Rise of Disaster Capitalism,” was warning us that “during boom times it’s profitable to preach laissez faire, because an absentee government allows speculative bubbles.”
But “when those bubbles burst, the ideology becomes a hindrance and goes dormant while big government rides to the rescue.” Then, free-market “ideology will come roaring back when the bailouts are done.
The massive debts the public is accumulating to bail out the speculators will then become part of a global budget crisis.” TARP paybacks: Obama has a new “disaster capitalism.”
Scene 6. Wall Street’s CEOs rule like dictators in a banana republic
Seriously, here’s how bad Taibbi sees it: “Paulson and his cronies turned the federal government into one gigantic half-opaque holding company, one whose balance sheet includes the world’s most appallingly large and risky hedge fund, a controlling interest in a dying insurance giant, huge investments in a group of teetering megabanks, and shares here and there in various auto-finance companies, student loans, and other failing business.”
And let’s include $5.5 trillion in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Wall Street’s greed and stupidity resembles the self-destructive reigns of banana republic dictators.
Scene 7. Wall Street makes an un-American bet on ‘disaster capitalism’
Today as you ponder buying some Goldman stock, remember, you’re really betting that “disaster capitalism” is back, strong, tightening its stranglehold on Washington and on the American taxpayers, who will guarantee all Wall Street’s future failures. Yes, this is un-American, but so what?
The “Goldman Conspiracy” is still probably a good short-term buy … if you’re interested in betting on America’s new “democracy of capitalists, by capitalists, and for capitalists,” with “The Conspiracy” leading the joint chiefs of this new mercenary army … and it only took six short months for their “Quiet Coup!”
Scene 8. Banks recycle TARP money, pump earnings, cheat America
Here’s how it worked: The Hammer conned a clueless Congress, then shelled out $350 billion of our taxpayer money (Helicopter Ben Bernanke helped by upping the ante with a couple trillion side-bet), buying toxic debt to save his ol’ Wall Street buddies. They stopped lending and used the dough to doctor their balance sheets.
So no surprise that Goldman, Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan Chase are now reporting “blockbuster” first-quarter earnings, says the New York Times, while just months ago “many of the nation’s biggest banks were on life support.”
Get it? They screwed taxpayers and borrowers so they can repay TARP with (you guessed it) our recycled TARP money. Now it’s back to business-as-usual, with no restrictions on CEO pay and bonuses … no thank-yous … no admissions of guilt … while some even arrogantly deny that they ever needed TARP money.
Scene 9. Wall Street’s already set the stage for new disaster
Right after the election in November, at the peak of the banking crisis, when Hank, Goldman and the Wall Street mercenary armies were divvying up the $350 billion TARP money, we detailed 30 reasons for the “Great Depression II” likely coming around 2011.
We quoted John Whitehead, former Goldman Sachs chairman, former chairman of the New York Fed, former Reagan deputy secretary of state. He warned America’s problems will take years, burn trillions, result in massive deficits:
“This is a road to disaster,” he said. “I’ve always been a positive person and optimistic, but I don’t see a solution here.” He did see a depression at the end of that road, one you can call the “Great Depression II.”
Scene 10. Obama turned ‘The Goldman Conspiracy’ into a superpower
Do you see the parallels: Jack and Starkwood, Hank and Goldman? Jack’s a great mythic hero. We need to believe a hero will defend the little guy, stand between us and total annihilation. But Jack Bauer’s “dead.” Yes, dead. Jack’s not real. Never was “alive.” Jack’s a fiction, a figment of Main Street America’s vivid imagination, the symbol of “hope” for a populist revolution.
Hope that Jack, Barack or some other new hero will emerge, take power back from Wall Street and return it to the people.
Unfortunately that won’t happen, folks. Yes, on TV Jack will come back from near-death, again. But in real life, Hank, Goldman and Wall Street’s mercenaries are winning the war.
Read and weep Portfolio’s chilling finale: “Obama’s victory and Geithner’s appointment are the completion of Goldman’s meticulously crafted plan to become a superpower. The firm now has the clout to impose its will on the financial markets, and the world.”
GOP or Dems? Conservatives or liberals? It doesn’t matter. We’ll all controlled by “The Conspiracy.” So why not surrender, let them have the power? The truth is, through their lobbyists and surrogates in Washington, they already rule America. Surrender is a mere formality.
Accept reality. Hold them accountable later. After the next crisis.
After the next meltdown of disaster capitalism — if there’s anything left after the “Great Depression II” sweeps like a pandemic across the planet, consuming all economies, for a long time. But for now, Goldman and other banks may well be short-term buys. Just be ready to dump them in the near future … a scenario that will be here sooner than you think. End of Story

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

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FixAFlat Needed For Stocks and Banks!

22 Wednesday Apr 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

What’s that hissing sound? Sounds like the hot air of the stock market rally is hissing away! Quick! Get some fixaflat Mr’s. Geitner and Bernanke.

As I mentioned in yesterdays’ post, I hope you took some profits as I think this is your last chance at the 8000 level on the Dow. I also hope you took out a position in (Skf) too!

With the Fed and Geitner trying to pull every trick they can to fix the Banks and the Economy, they are only digging a deeper hole from which we will have to pull ourselves as a country out of. Looks like the can of FixAFlat is running out!

They tell us we have some signs, glimmers of recovery from around the country. They also are telling me there is no Inflation to speak of… By the way didn’t they just say that the CPI was lower last month? My question then- why am I averaging an extra $10-$20 on groceries, I mean have you gone shopping recently.

They say look the Banks are showing profits! Well if I had billions (actually trillions) thrown at me I would show a profit too. The problem is these are 1 time items what happens next quarter?

Our economy especially during the last 30 years , has been driven by consumers using their homes as ATMS figuring that home prices would keep going up and up. Now today we wake up with all sorts of toys and things we didn’t really need but are stuck having to pay for.

Even worse, we have watched our industries, manufacturing and production base moved overseas in the name of profits. Tell me how can we ever not run a deficit when it comes to imports and exports. Now that we and the rest of the world are having to tighten our belts just how many more “service” industries can we produce and export.

Even if we had the products, with the world economy being what it is; who is going to buy? Then our administration is laying more taxes on us and reducing the very deductions that help to produce new businesses and jobs.

Speaking of which (jobs) of course the employment figures seemed to have dropped, the people have simply run out of benefits! A good majority of those are still unemployed or at best having to work part-time jobs, in some cases 2 to 4 part time jobs just to barely survive.

Well I have always been told not to complain about problems unless you have some answers to them.

Okay, I have a couple, to begin with how about no more Income Tax! Let’s drop the Income Tax completely and have a flat rate National Sales tax instead of say 18-23% with no deductions or exemptions. This alone would bring in far more revenue for the Treasury than the current tax plan as it stands now.

Next how about some transparency? How about we demand a complete audit and accounting for the Fed and the Treasury. Where has all of our money gone and for what? Along those lines how much gold does America really have left? We need a full audit there too!

I have many more but I wll just mention one. How about an amendment to the US Constitution requiring that each of our elected represenatives have to read each and every bill the enact or try to pass and along that line , our elected represenatives are only allowed to pass 1 act at a time (where everything has to be related to the bill). In other words if you are passing a bill or law say on Federal Highway Improvements you can’t have a provision to get funding for abortions in foreign countries. Everything in the bill has to be related to Highway Improvements only, nothing else.

Okay, lets get back to the markets. First there is support at the 7800 level for the Dow with stronger support around 7500 that should be tested in the next few trading sessions.

Conversly for Gold the first test is $900 with $928 being the next level. If Gold breaks thes two then it will test $980, then $1000 again. This time it’s going to break thru and set new all time highs. I am still looking for minmum of $1250 – $1500 by the end of this year. It will be much higher prices if some of the things I have mentioned before occur. Then Gold Prices could easily top $2500 and higher.

Today’s articles are not meant to scare you (well maybe!), they are me screaming at you “wake up”! Have a Great Evening! – Good Investing! – jschulmansr

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Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Jefferey Christian: Gold and Dollar Safe Havens – Hard Assets Investor

Source: Hard Assets Investor

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

Mike Norman, anchor, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Norman): Welcome back folks, to the second half of my interview with Jeffrey Christian, managing director of CPM Group. Jeffrey, the last interview was sort of a macro overview. I think you said that for the remainder, maybe stable prices, but then we’re looking longer term for a resumption of probably a powerful bull market again in commodities.

Let’s look at some specific commodities. I want to talk about gold. Gold has garnered a lot of attention, particularly now that we’ve seen aggressive action taken by the Fed and other central banks to support the economy – some people say a lot of money printing. What is your outlook for gold?


View Part I

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Jeffrey Christian, managing director, CPM Group (Christian): Gold is somewhat different from other commodities: Gold is really a financial asset. So we think gold might do very well this year, possibly make a new record high late in March or in early April, then come off a little bit, we think, in the second and third quarters. The economic outlook may be that we’re sort of bottoming out, moving toward a recovery; and in that kind of situation, gold could come off to 8 or 850 and then probably move higher.

We’re looking at gold on a long-term perspective, and you have seen more investors buy more gold for a longer period of time in more parts of the world over the last eight years than ever before in history, and we’ve been doing a lot of thinking about it, and what you’re seeing is really a rehabilitation of gold as a financial asset.

So investors have looked at not just the most recent crisis but the fact that over the last eight years, we’ve had a series of financial, economic and political crises and problems, and they’ve simply said, I no longer want to have 0.2% of my assets in gold, I’d rather have 1%. So I think you’re seeing this long-term secular increase in investment demand, which is going to be around for a long time.

Norman: Let me ask you this, because in certain countries traditionally, historically – take India for example – silver; it’s a form of money, it always has been. But as their economy evolves and becomes more like ours – more modern – won’t they move to more of sort of a credit money-based system, whereas before, it was basically silver or gold considered money? And if they do, doesn’t that diminish the role of gold as money for these nations?

Christian: A couple points. First off, they are moving to a more diversified portfolio. If you go back to India 10 years ago, it was gold and silver, and that was your foremost savings. Today they’re reducing their exposure to gold and silver, they’re increasing their exposure to other assets; and what you find is it looks like it’s a diametric move compared to what you’re seeing in Europe and the United States, where people are moving away from financial assets to go over to gold and silver.

But in fact it’s the same impulse: I want to diversify portfolio. Whereas the Americans and the Europeans are saying, I want to diversify portfolio which includes some gold and silver, the Indians are saying, I want to diversify portfolio which includes some financial assets. That’s the longer-term issue.

On a short-term basis, the financial crisis of the last two years has driven home to a lot of Indians that they were right to focus on gold and silver all along, and they’ve been very happy that they didn’t take all of their gold and silver assets and move them into stocks and bonds.

Norman: I want to move on, but first I’ve got one quick question I want to ask you: the link between the dollar and gold. The dollar – since 2002 until probably the midpoint or late last year – was in a decline, but it’s been going up. Would that change your outlook if the dollar continued to rise?

Christian: It depends on how far it continues to rise. It’s a myth that gold trade against the dollar, and if you look at past financial crises – ’73, ’74, ’79, ’80 – gold and the dollar were rising together the same way they have been since the middle of 2008; and the fact of the matter is they’re both safe havens. So the fact that the dollar is rising … and I think it’s going to strengthen further over the next year or two …

Norman: You do?


Christian: …Yeah, I’m a dollar bull for the next year or two. I think it’s going to be very volatile but with an upward bias, because of a couple things. First off, investors like the Treasury. Investors have lost faith in the Treasury, but they still have more faith in the Treasury than they do in the ECB; that’s the bottom line. So I think that you can see the dollar rise simultaneous to gold the same way you saw it in 1979.

Norman: All right. A big story last year of course was oil: 150, all the way down almost to 30. We’re just back above 50 again, but we’ve got OPEC cutting back production significantly; you have the Russian factor in there; a tendency toward monopolistic forces in the oil market. Do we go back up again?

Christian: I think oil will probably get up around $60 yet this year. We were thinking that oil would get toward $60 late this year, but that was three weeks ago and the price was 45. It’s now 53, so it’s almost there already. It may overshoot that, but I think 60, 65 is a reasonable target for late this year, but then you go out two or three years from now and the oil and energy market in total is absolutely frightening.

Once we get into an economic recovery on a global basis – and I say that because I think that the world economy will be stronger and healthier than the U.S. economy on a long-term basis – but once we get into an economic recovery on a global basis, there is not enough energy to supply what is anticipated in terms of real GDP, and that means that oil prices go back over $100 in the three- to five-year time frame, and possibly a lot farther.

Norman: I was going to ask you what, if any, impact – it doesn’t seem like very much – all this push toward alternative energy … does that, even at the margin, diminish the demand for petroleum?

Christian: At the margin, it diminishes the demand for petroleum, but it will only be marginal. If you look at wind power, solar power and a lot of these things, they will not be significant. Nuclear power could be, but that’s something that’s going to take 10 or 20 years to really come into effect.

If you look at the International Energy Agency’s long-term energy outlook, it’s very scary from a long-term perspective, because, as I say, conventional oil and gas, nonconventional oil and gas, alternative energies – you put them all together, you come up with your best scenario for supply of those things, and it’s insufficient to meet the world’s demand for energy.

Norman: All right. Let’s talk now about maybe copper, some base metals, and particularly in light of infrastructure, infrastructure now here as part of the fiscal stimulus in the United States and also in China. Is that what you need to be focused on?

Christian: I like the base metals: aluminum, copper, because of the infrastructure bill; molybdenum, because it goes into the steel which is used in gas and oil transmission pipelines and deep sea drilling. I think there are a lot of these things that will do very well because of the infrastructure bill. You have to be careful; I think the markets have gotten a little overly enthusiastic.

Because you do have this buildup in inventories, you are still running supply/demand surpluses this year. If you look back at the 1980s, the markets moved into deficits around 1983, but the prices didn’t respond until ’87 because you had these large inventories. It probably won’t take that long this time, but you will have a lag because of the damage done to the market.

Norman: All right. Well, there you have it folks: Jeff Christian, managing director of CPM Group. Jeff, thanks very much for coming by. Stop by this Web site often where you have our interview series continuing as always. This is Mike Norman for now. Take care, bye bye.

===================================================

Will New Fed “Tools” Avert Hyperinflation? – Daily Reckoning

By: Robert Murphy of Free Advice

04/22/09 Nashville, Tennessee People often accuse me of making “irresponsible” forecasts of massive price inflation. Even though they know that history is replete with examples of central banks ruining their currencies, these critics are sure that “it can’t happen here.” So in the present article I’d like to make the brief case for why we should all be very alarmed about the prospects for the U.S. dollar.

First, let’s look at what those penny pinchers in the federal government are up to. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently released its analysis of the Obama Administration’s ten-year budget proposal. The projected deficit for (fiscal year) 2009 is a whopping $1.8 trillion. Now the president has said, in effect, that you need to spend money to save money, but the CBO projects deficits once again exceeding $1 trillion by 2018. In fact, over the whole CBO forecast from 2009-2019, the lowest the deficit ever goes is $658 billion.

This should be rather surprising to anyone who actually took Obama at his word when he promised to restore fiscal discipline to Washington. In fact, the CBO projects that the outstanding federal debt held by the public will increase from 40.8% of GDP in 2008 to 82.4% in 2019. In other words, the CBO predicts a doubling of the national debt in a mere decade.

One last thing to give you chills (and not the good kind): The CBO is not exactly a doom-and-gloom forecasting service. They’re run by the government, for crying out loud. This is the same CBO that projected at the start of the Bush Administration ten years of an accumulated $5.6 trillion in budget surpluses.

I would caution readers not to dismiss all CBO numbers as obviously meaningless. On the contrary, I think we will see the same pattern play out under Obama as under Bush: Because the CBO in both cases is grossly overstating future tax receipts, its projections for the Obama proposal are going to turn out just as rosy as they did back in 2001. Besides anemic tax receipts, if mortgage defaults continue to increase, the CBO projections on losses from the Treasury’s numerous “rescue” measures will also be far too optimistic.

In short, I think we should view the doubling of the national debt (as a share of the overall economy) over the next decade as a naïve best-case scenario.

If fiscal policy is a disaster, monetary policy is even worse. Unfortunately, the issues here get very complicated, and so it’s difficult for the layman to know whom to trust. Not only do left-wingers like Paul Krugman say that we need more inflation, but even (alleged) right-wingers like Greg Mankiw are saying the exact same thing. With all due respect, those guys are crazy.

Normally, I do my best unshaved-guy-wearing-a-sandwich-board routine by showing the scary Fed chart of the monetary base. But every time I do that, some wise guy argues that I don’t understand how our banking system works, and that because of “deleveraging” we are actually experiencing a shrinking money supply.

No, we aren’t. It’s true that there are forces tending to shrink the money supply, but Bernanke has more than overwhelmed them. All of the standard measures of the money stock went way up during 2008, even though prices (as measured by the CPI) fell in some months. For example, the monetary aggregate M1 consists of very liquid items such as actual currency held by the public, and checking account deposits. It does not include the monetary base (which we know has exploded through the roof). Even so, look at the annual percentage graph of M1 recently; it’s grown at almost a record rate:

phpdxpYpJ

Now the reason prices haven’t exploded is that the demand to hold U.S. dollars has also increased dramatically. (That’s also what happened in the 1980s: the Reagan tax cuts and Volcker’s squelching of severe price inflation made it much more attractive to hold dollars, and so the Fed got away with printing a bunch even though the CPI didn’t increase wildly.)

Once people get over the shock of the financial crisis, the new money Bernanke has pumped into the system will begin pushing up prices. Others have used this analogy before me, but it’s still apt: The U.S. economy right now is like Wile E. Coyote right after he runs off a cliff but hasn’t yet looked down. Once the spell of a “deflationary spiral” is broken by a full quarter of significant price hikes, there will be an avalanche as people come to their senses.

Some analysts concede that the traditional Fed policies have indeed left the dollar vulnerable to serious devaluation, but they think the central bank wizards can save the day by acquiring new “tools.” For example, San Francisco Fed president Janet Yellen has been arguing that the Fed should be able to issue its own debt, to give the Fed more flexibility. The idea is that when the time comes for the Fed to sop up the excess reserves it has pumped into the banking system, it would be devastating to the incipient economic recovery if the Fed has to dump a bunch of mortgage-backed securities, or Treasury bonds, back onto the market. This would ruin the banks with MBS on their balance sheets, and/or it would push up interest rates for the government. Thus, the Fed would have painted itself into a corner, and it would have to choose between massive CPI hikes or a renewed recession. To avoid that nasty tradeoff, Yellen argues that if the Fed could sell its own debt, then it could drain reserves out of the banking system without unloading its own balance sheet.

For a different idea, economists Woodward and Hall think the Fed just needs the ability to charge banks for holding reserves. The Fed already (recently) obtained the right to pay interest on reserves, and so Woodward and Hall think the Fed should also have the ability to do the opposite, i.e. to be able to pay a negative interest rate on reserves that banks hold on deposit with the Fed.

How does this avert the threat of hyperinflation? Simple, according to Woodward and Hall. If banks ever start loaning out too much of their (now massive) excess reserves, and thereby start causing large price inflation, then the Fed can simply raise the interest rate it pays on reserves. Banks would then find it more profitable to lend to the Fed, as it were, rather than lending reserves out to homebuyers and other borrowers in the private sector. Voila! Problem solved.

Obviously these tricks can’t avoid the consequences of Bernanke’s mad money printing spree. At best, they would merely push back the day of reckoning, while ensuring that it grows exponentially (quite literally).

A quick numerical example: Let’s say the Fed wants to drain $100 billion in reserves out of the banking system, in order to cool off rising prices. But it doesn’t want to sell off some of its assets on its balance sheet (like “toxic” mortgage-backed securities), so instead the Fed sells $100 billion worth of the brand new “Fed bonds,” as Yellen hopes.

In the beginning, this will indeed solve the problem. When people in the private sector buy the Fed-issued bonds, they write checks on their banks and ultimately those banks see their reserves go down at the Fed. There is less money held by the public, and so prices don’t rise as quickly.

But what happens when the Fed bonds mature? For example, if the Fed sold a 12-month bond paying 1% interest, then after the year has passed our private sector buyers will hand over the securities and now their checking accounts will be credited with $101 billion. At that point, the economy would be in the same position as before, only worse: there would be an extra billion in newly created reserves (because of interest on the Fed debt).

The financial gurus running our financial system and advising our political leaders aren’t even thinking two steps ahead when making their cockamamie recommendations. For those readers who share my skepticism, the solution seems clear: You need to transfer your wealth out of assets denominated in fixed streams of U.S. dollars, and switch to something that responds to large price inflation. In short, sell your corporate and government bonds, and start stocking up on precious metals.

Regards,

Robert Murphy
for The Daily Reckoning

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

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Are You Ready For This? – Stocks at Risk and Gold to Soar?

20 Monday Apr 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on Are You Ready For This? – Stocks at Risk and Gold to Soar?

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Well I was a few days off but right nevertheless. Hope you took some profits on Thurs-Fri of last week in your non-precious metals stocks. It now appears that intermediate wave has ended and the downward spiral to begin. For the Dow I don’t see any real strong support until 7500, however the 7800 level is featuring a crossover of the moving averages so we may see a little support there. If 7800 and 7500 are breached then we will be testing the recent bottom at 6500 level very quickly. Gold jumped nicely today and I hope you were able to accumulate more of the “shiny” stuff in whatever form. I did pick up a further position in (DGP) last Fri. to catch the next ride to at least $950-$980. Longer term I am still sticking with my call of Gold $1250-$1500 by year end, even higher, way higher if the middleast explodes. Did you notice that Ahmadinejad practically thumbed his nose at the whole world today, especially Isreal? It is like he is “daring” anybody to do something about it. Isreal is being put into a position of having to strike for its’ very survival, especially since Mr. Obama is not really standing up and doing anything about Iran. Big trouble brewing and if the war happens big shock to Stocks, Oil, and Precious metals. You can feel the “calm” before the storm right now. Take heed put yourself in a position to be protected should/ no, when this happens. On the home front, I hope you were able to catch on Twitter my live reporting (tweetup) of the Arizona Tea Party held at the state capital. It was awesome and for the first time in a long time, it was a gathering of young and old, republicans and democrats, libertarians and independents, all united together as Americans! For all the incumbents out there… look out next election you’re going down! Have a Great Evening and Good Investing! – jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

A Gold Market Squeeze – Seeking Alpha

By: Tim Iacono of The Mess That Greenspan Made

A lot has happened since the yellow metal was last talked about here. The flow of gold bars into the ETFs has reversed direction and, after a surge in scrap supplies and a buying strike, bullion has stopped moving out of India and imports have resumed.

As might be expected, prices have plunged, but things are looking up today. In this Business Bullet from the Telegraph, at least a few analysts think higher prices might be ahead.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard files this report on a possible gold market squeeze, although there appears to be something wrong with that “inflation-adjusted” gold price of $1,560 in the second paragraph – based on U.S. inflation, the figure is closer to $2,200.

Charles Gibson, a gold expert at Edison Investment Research, argues in a new report that negative real interest rates (below inflation) in the US and beyond has upset the “leasing” machinery in the gold industry and led to a sustained market squeeze.

This is what occurred in the late 1970s, driving gold prices to $850 and ounce – roughly $1,560 in today’s terms. Gold finished last week at $870.

Mr Gibson said the powerful dynamic could lead to a second leg of this gold bull market, even though the metal has already enjoyed a torrid run over the last eight years.

In normal times, gold mining companies sell – or “hedge” – a chunk of their output in advance through bullion banks. These banks cover their positions by leasing gold from central banks. This bread-and-butter trade created excess supply of 500 tonnes each year until the start of this decade.

Low real interest rates have caused the process to reverse, creating a shortfall of about 500 tonnes. The process accelerates as rates turn negative, leading to a scramble by market players to find physical gold.

The gold market needs something to revive it these days.

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Inflationary Prognosis Leads Us Back To Gold- Seeking Alpha

By: Horatio Marquez of Monday Morning

For many millenniums, gold has been a barometer of financial health and the ultimate store of value. It’s long been considered the ultimate safe haven investment when all else fails, or when economic conditions seem too good to be true.

So now that gold has made a second major run – shooting from $600 an ounce to $900 an ounce after punching through the $1,000 plateau last year – is the “yellow metal” still a prudent profit play, or is it an investment that’s already played out?

To answer that question, we must first ask another: Is the global monetary mirage going to keep inflating, or are we already on a sound monetary footing?

Let’s find out.

The global financial crisis has all the world’s major currencies (the U.S. dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen) racing to devalue against each other. This phenomenon of competitive devaluations occurs when inefficiencies in one country weigh down its economy. Devaluing the currency is an old macroeconomic trick to quickly attain competitiveness against other trading partners. It’s a way of borrowing growth from a neighbor, taxing imports and subsidizing exports.

But this newfound competitiveness is short-lived if the devaluing country does not fix the underlying reasons that gave rise to the currency devaluation in the first place. Devaluing the currency makes imports more expensive, especially commodities. And higher commodity prices and less competition from imported goods gradually feed inflationary pressures into the system.

Those inflationary pressures eventually “eat up” the value of the devaluation. And at the end of this cycle, you are left not where you began, but poorer, because you have made the income and monetary savings of your population less valuable.

The U.S. Economy’s Uphill Climb

No doubt, we are facing a unique set of circumstances in the markets. We are facing a global recession that actually teetered on the brink of a depression.

While some might think that just recapitalizing the banks will allow the lenders to get back into the business of aiding growth by providing credit, the reality is that the financial blowup is a symptom of structural conditions that keep generating these imbalances over time.

Let me be more specific.

There are three important structural conditions afflicting the long-term economic health of America:

  • The U.S. auto industry has fallen to international competitors.
  • Huge Social Security imbalances and an out-of-control medical care system figure to siphon an increasing amount of capital out of the economy.
  • And the onerous and incomprehensible U.S. corporate tax system will cause enough friction to slow economic growth.

When the United States couldn’t sell cars and other products abroad, it stimulated its internal consumption in order to keep the economy going. The U.S. auto industry barely subsisted while the rest of America subsidized it with abnormally low interest rates and overpriced cars. Foreign carmakers could underprice them – and with better cars to offer – helping them book large profits, even when manufacturing in the United States.

Over time, the falling market share – in an industry where economies of scale are the name of the game – kept increasing the financial pressure on the U.S. car industry, which was technically insolvent by the year 2000. And up until recently, members of the U.S. industry declined to take the hard medicine and restructure their failing business models.

All the government money in the world couldn’t help the U.S. auto industry without a vital restructuring. The end result will be a trimmed-down, leaner industry whose workers will have less purchasing power. That is a strong change that will not be reversed.

Likewise with the banking industry, capital alone won’t do the trick unless the banks remove the cancer that is eating away at the very foundations of this country’s economic system. Therefore, we’ll see a pared-down, de-leveraged financial system that will produce less secular growth, lower profits and lower employment than its inflated predecessor.

In addition, although the industry has been “stabilized” with massive subsidies (zero interest rates, wide open discount windows and U.S. Federal Reserve programs designed to bolster asset values), significant losses are still ahead, which will continue to be painful.

There’s one last problem: The U.S. government has yet to address the elephants in the bazaar: The massive inter-generational Ponzi scheme of Social Security and the massive and unsustainable healthcare system.

If we do not address these two problems seriously, without political pandering and without making the very tough choices we need to make, let the last one leaving the U.S. turn off the lights, because the population pyramid is too narrow at its base to sustain the millions of baby boomers retiring.

The Obama administration is being proactive in addressing these problems, but the measures it is employing are inflationary.

The Government’s Inflationary Arsenal

In order to prevent a widespread economic depression from fully unfolding, the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have resorted to a battery of very powerful measures.

These measures prevent the normal course that would have followed the blow-up of the huge unsustainable imbalances built over decades in the U.S. car industry, in the U.S. real estate market and more importantly in the Social Security and Medical Care systems.

In short, the Federal Reserve has resorted to:

  • Lowering interest rates to near a range of 0%-0.25%. This effectively is a subsidy from savers to the financial institutions.
  • “Quantitative easing.” That is, the Fed is buying U.S. Treasuries to drive their rates lower and to increase the money supply.

These are both merely ways of devaluing the dollar. Of course, the justification of engineering inflation is saving the U.S. banking industry and avoiding a dreaded deflationary spiral, a la Japan in the 1990s, which would mire us in 10 years of economic paralysis.

In effect, the U.S. government is trying to put out the fire with gasoline: Spending unconscionable amounts of money that it does not have, and financing that spending with record levels of debt. The short-term results of a boost in activity will be extremely costly.

Under this scenario, with a depression not in the cards, the market is rallying to adjust to mere recession pricing. But are we out of the woods? The rampant spending and overzealous monetary easing will result in – you guessed it – inflation.

The Fed’s claims that it is ready and willing to act quickly in order to contain inflation when it finally appears just don’t seem realistic at this point. As a central bank that had to resort to such extraordinary measures just to sidestep the death spiral, could you really risk tightening the reins too much and too soon? No way. The Fed will have to be very slow in taking back the liquidity with which it has just flooded the market.

After all, it is much easier to spike rates later to stop inflation than to deal once more with a crumbling financial system.

Monetary management is more of an art than a science. The Fed doesn’t really know how much time – and to what extent – it will take for their measures to impact economic activity. It is driving while looking into its rearview mirror. And with this amount of financial adrenalin and imbalances being corrected in the system, the likelihood of a monetary “soft landing” is slim to none.

This brings us back to gold.

With this prognosis, we know that the government’s policies will succeed in achieving what it truly intended: Creating inflation.

Therefore, gold is a necessary component of almost any portfolio. The problem is that the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) already has accumulated more gold than the rich countries of Switzerland or China. That means any move from the masses of investors to leave the metal will have a huge downward effect on it.

But, knowing this important technical risk, I would still be ready to invest if gold pulls back to the $800 an ounce level. From there, I’d keep building a prudent position, as we should see a price spike once inflation starts showing up in 12 months to 18 months.

Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF.

Original post

 

 

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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The Swan Dive- Next For Stocks?

14 Tuesday Apr 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, agricultural commodities, ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, Barack Obama, bear market, Bear Trap, bilderbergers, Bollinger Bands, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, crash, Credit Default, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, EGO, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, G-20, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, heating oil, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Latest News, majors, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, natural gas, NGC, NXG, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, S&P 500, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, SWC, TARP, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on The Swan Dive- Next For Stocks?

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Well Mr. Obama said the same old, same old today and didn’t help the market at all… ANY of them! Mr. Obama what do you have against the market? I mean like your whole cabinet are all Good Ole Wall Street Boys!?! The Dow failed to maintain above 8000 today and that is a very bad sign or good depending which side of market you are on. It appears now the the intermediate wave (Elliott) is finished and stocks have climbed to the top of the diving platform. 1st attemp at a swan dive- difficulty easy. So wil it be a perfect 10 or a belly flop? Either Way the Dow is going down! My first target 7200-7500 and then a test of the 6500 level lows, (Called The “Bottom” recently). Gold and Precious Metals continue to consolidate getting ready to launch for a new test of $920, then $980, then the all time high. I think the news is going to be that bad and that dramatic. The Middle East is about to explode, N. Korea just threw out the inspectors, even the pirates are snubbing their noses at you Mr. Obama. So now the question is are you a man or a mouse? Squeak up! Copper is quietly having a nice rally, China is buying up all of our soybeans, and oil is getting ready to explode to the upside. Keep accumulating Gold and Precious Metals in any form, buy producers with production, you should jump into (DGP) with a little risk money too! In currencies my pick is the Aussie dollar, accumulate on dips because as Gold goes so will the Aussie Dollar. Good Investing! – jschulmansr

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===================================================
Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;
Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

 

 

 

===================================================

My Note: I use these tools and they are great and they work! – jschulmansr

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

 

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

My Note: I use these tools and they are great and they work! – jschulmansr

 

 

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Pros Say: Sharp Market Pullback This Week – CNBC

Source: CNBC.com

Encouraging numbers from an investment banking giant dominated discussion among the pros, who tied them to massive government stimulus efforts — and doubted they would carry ahead to economic numbers, or even to results from other investment banks. 

Financials Show Surprising Strength; Consumers Still Look Weak

Scott Brown of Raymond James said there has been a real change in the attitudes and behavior of consumers, with fear now dominant. That is likely to be reflected in retail data this week, and there’s no likelihood that consumer spending will rebound any time soon.  (click to watch the video).

Stocks ended near their session lows Tuesday after a report showed retail sales unexpectedly dropped in March and as worries about banks simmered ahead of some key earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 137.63, or 1.7 percent, to close at 7,920.18. The S&P 500 lost 2 percent, while the Nasdaq skidded 1.7 percent.

 

Retail sales tumbled 1.1 percent

last month, a big disappointment as economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.3-percent increase. Excluding the volatile auto component, sales fell 0.9 percent. The two prior months were revised upward, offering some consolation, but the unexpected sharp drop rattled the market.

“The inescapable fact is that the U.S. consumer is faced with daunting fundamentals: Wage and salary income growth has evaporated, credit is very tight, home prices continue to decline … [which] makes it very likely that the U.S. consumer will remain a drag on economic activity in coming quarters,” MFR economist Joshua Shapiro wrote in a note to clients. “Fiscal stimulus will help to blunt this, but is unlikely to turn the tide completely.”

Markets are Overbought; Retail Numbers = Long Way to Go

Disappointing retail sales numbers in March, after two stronger-than-expected months, show the consumer has not turned the corner after all, and may “go back in his cocoon,” according to Art Cashin of UBS.  The market is overbought and vulnerable to a pullback — perhaps even a sharp pullback over the next three days — with option expiration built in.  He is hopeful we have set the lows for the cycle, although those lows may be tested, and he foresees a lot of “sideways churning for maybe months.

My Note: Unfortunately if sideways churning includes testing those lows then I absolutely agree if those lows hold. Unfortunately, I don’t think they will, can you say DOW 4500? – jschulmansr

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Oil and Gold to Figure Large This Week – Seeking Alpha

By: Brad Zigler of Hard Assets Investor

Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 7.9%

 

Easter Mondays leave Yanks more time to leisurely ponder the week’s trading prospects, as many global bourses are closed. We get to trade – and talk, as Linda Richman used to suggest – amongst ourselves.

Gold and oil naturally figure large in this week’s scenario. Particularly, oil over gold, if you’ve been listening to commodity maven Jim Rogers. Rogers thinks the International Monetary Fund [IMF] is a likely seller of some of its 3,200-ton metal stash, so he’s talking up black gold over yellow.

It’s not as if the world finds this surprising. Whether the IMF sales take place or not, the world’s been spoiling for a showdown between the two commodities.

Let’s look at oil first. The nearby crude contract gathered strength in its 50% retracement of the February-March rally, and is now poised to challenge the run-up’s $54.64 high.

Nearby NYMEX WTI Crude

Nearby NYMEX WTI Crude

True, near-term fundamentals still indicate oversupply. The re-growth in the contango tells you that. The quarterly carry trade was pinched to 80 cents a barrel a month ago; now it’s in the $4-5 range. If you’ve got a carrying charge market, you’ve got commodity enough to carry into future deliveries.

No, this has been a rally built more on expectations of improving economic prospects – hand-in-hand with the equity market rally – than on a supply retraction. Oil inventories at the Cushing, Okla., terminus may be down from their peak, but supplies in other regions have ballooned to more than compensate for the off-take.

Now, about gold …

Momentum and sentiment have turned sour for the yellow metal. But you probably suspected that, right? The recent 30,000-contract downdraft in COMEX open interest was led mostly by fund sellers. Net long positions held by large speculators tumbled more than 18% last week.

COMEX Nearby Gold

COMEX Nearby Gold

Technically, gold’s very vulnerable. Pushed to test its 100-day moving average on the downside and weighed down by overhead resistance at the $888 level – formerly support for the February-March topping action – the nearby market’s squeezed. Gold spreads (as mentioned in “Another ‘Make It Or Break It’ Hurdle For Gold“) indicate plenty of liquidity in the lease market. Supply’s not the issue for gold either. At least not yet.

Oil’s technical strength over gold is readily apparent in the gold/oil ratio. A rising ratio, meaning gold’s price is gaining on oil’s, is indicative of poorer economic conditions to come. A decline, not surprising, signals the market’s forecast of better prospects. The ratio’s been testing the 17-to-1 level over the past couple of weeks. An oil breakout could put this indicator on course to look for support at the 15-to-1 level.

Gold/Oil Ratio

Gold/Oil Ratio

It seems traders are essentially anticipating a reflation trade by making one of the primary engines of inflation, oil, their target rather than gold, inflation’s classic beneficiary.

This should be an interesting week.

===================================================

My Note: Brad you need to remember this time the Miner’s have started to begin the rally not the bullion market. When that happens Gold always rises. But with the producer’s/miner’s leading we will have a much stronger and deeper rally this time, I’m looking for $1200 – $1500 by year’s end! Have a Great Evening, don’t forget tomorrow is National Tea Party Day! – jschulmansr

===================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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Stupid Is as …

07 Tuesday Apr 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on Stupid Is as …

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Austrian school, banking crisis, banks, bear market, bull market, central banks, commodities, deflation, depression, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, economic, economic trends, economy, financial, futures, futures markets, gold, gold miners, hard assets, inflation, investments, market crash, Markets, mining companies, palladium, physical gold, platinum, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, silver, silver miners, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, U.S. Dollar, volatility

Well Gold and Precious Metals bounced off the 200 day moving average and made my (DGP) call yesterday look like pure genius. For Stocks it looks like we may have hit the end of the intermediate wave (Elliott), there may be one more push at 8000, if it fails watch out. Alcoa earning came in much worse than expected and I don’t think we will see too many bright spots in the coming earnings season. So be very careful on getting into US Stocks remember “Stupid Is As Stupid Does!”. Today I am including some warnings I received via Investor Underground and then an excellent piece from my friend Ted Butler on why you should also be buying Silver and buying it now!- Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

 

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Notes From Investment Underground

Source: Crisis Strategy Alert.com

 

Is this the end of the sucker’s rally? Reality hits bulls hard… Banks’ losses to exceed those of the Great Depression… Will Alcoa’s earnings report mark the top? Why the government should stick to tending the lawns at Arlington Cemetery… Richard Russell: the primary trend is still down… Obama builds his house of cards ever higher… Insider rumors at the PPIP… A mysterious distortion in gold… And more!

*** Here at Notes we’ve been warning investors of that the recent rally in stocks was nothing more than a sucker’s rally. It’s been clear to us that although technical indicators showed that U.S. stocks were oversold – heavily oversold – economic fundamentals, or the primary trend, just didn’t support a sustained rally. At the time of writing, the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are all down over 1.5%.

*** The reason for the sell-off today and yesterday: reality. Yesterday, traders took fright Mike Mayo’s “sell” recommendation for banks. Mayo, who has a reputation for independence – a rare thing on Wall Street these days – reckons Geithner’s PPIP shell game won’t be able to prevent Wall Street’s losses exceeding those of the Great Depression. Today, it’s earnings, or lack thereof. How bad is the earnings picture? Bellwether aluminium producer Alcoa is expected to post a loss of 60 cents a share, against earnings of 44 cents a share at the same time a year ago. The first quarter is likely to show earnings at S&P 500 companies declined 37%, according to Thomson Reuters, the eighth straight decline in quarterly earnings. Go figure.

*** Will Alcoa’s earnings mark the top of this rally? It’s quite possible, says Investors Daily Edge financial analyst Rick Pendergraft. He even went so far as to provide us this handy chart to see the top in action.

 

Enable images to view this chart 

This is what Rick told Crisis Strategy Alert ’s senior analyst, Charles Delvalle:

    Alcoa’s results are due after the bell today. If Alcoa losses more than 60 cents a share (which is what analysts expect) or if Alcoa provides god awful guidance, expect this market to fall back on its face.

*** It has been a mark of this crisis that every rally in stocks sparked by a government announcement has eventually reversed. Traders clearly want to believe that government action can relieve their pain. It can’t. As my dad said yesterday in the Daily Reckoning , “Maybe the government should make sure there are enough parking places. It should probably make sure the grass is cut at Arlington Cemetery. But there’s no way it can do a better job of getting people what they want than they will do themselves. Even in a depression.”

*** Dad’s all flush after attending the big Richard Russell shindig last Saturday night. For those of you who don’t know, Russell is a doyen of the financial newsletter business. He’s been publishing his Dow Theory Letters for half a century now. And he’s one of the world’s leading experts on Dow Theory and U.S. stock markets in general. The People’s Bank of China subscribes to Russell’s letter. To say he’s a big hitter is an understatement. This is what Russell had to say recently about the rally in U.S. stocks (courtesy of the Daily Reckoning ):

    People in this country don’t realize how bad things can be. I lived through the Great Depression. I remember people standing in bread lines. It was hard to get a job, any job, back then. But now, you see the restaurants are still full. People are still spending money. They may be worried and they may be beginning to save, but there’s no sense of urgency. And there’s a rally on Wall Street. You know, every bear market produces a rally. You can expect the market to retrace its steps by one- to two-thirds.
    And every bear market has a surprise. I think the surprise is that this is going to be a lot worse than people expect.

Of course, you could bet against Russell’s 50 years experience. But here at Notes we won’t be joining you. “The primary trend is down,” says Russell. The bear market will continue until it “has fully expressed itself.” We couldn’t agree with him more.

*** That stocks are selling off shouldn’t surprise anyone. The financial sector led this rally, with spurious news of January and February profits at Citigroup. But the crux of the problem remains. As we said yesterday, banks are still marking the bulk of their toxic assets at 90-95%. This is deliriously optimistic nonsense. The assets are probably worth half that at best. There is roughly $8.1 trillion worth of loans at risk right now on the balance sheets of the U.S. banking and thrift system. So far, banks have taken $1.2 trillion in writedowns against these loans. The question is how many more trillions in writedowns are still in store.

*** Nouriel Roubini reckons total writedowns will reach $3.6 trillion. That’s another $2.4 trillion to go. The IMF forecasts that total writedowns of banks and insurers could reach $4 trillion – another $2.8 trillion. But the government, through its various guarantee programs, is now supporting 72% of banks’ total liabilities, which equates to a dollar amount far in excess of either Roubini’s or the IMF’s worst case scenarios for loan losses.

*** This is bad news for banks. It’s also bad news for America. That’s because U.S. deficits are increasing along with banks’ needs for more government backstops for their bad loans. Here’s how it works. The Treasury borrows money directly via its bond auctions. Or the Fed buys up U.S. government and agency debt and then uses the newly created money to plug banks’ balance sheets and fund the myriad federal economic support programs (which so far top $9 trillion). As this process accelerates (only a fraction of these $9 trillion in obligations are currently funded) the assets backing the banking system – U.S. Treasuries and the dollar – themselves become devalued. At this stage, all bets are off.

*** In other words, all that’s happening is the government is building the house of cards higher and higher. Government backing is responsible for any improvement in the credit markets. But take away that backing and there is no real improvement in risk. To put it another way, risk is being transferred from the corporate sphere (the banks) to the public sphere (the U.S. taxpayer). This is reflected in U.S. sovereign CDS widening, which reflects the market perception of the creditworthiness of the U.S. Today, the Financial Times reports that U.S. sovereign CDS widened 8% to 51.67bps.

*** Even George Soros – an initial supporter of the government’s interventions in the markets – thinks the U.S. is in for a surprise. A bad one that is. Speaking to Reuters Financial Television, Soros said the U.S. economy is in for a “lasting slowdown” and could face a Japan-style period of relatively low growth coupled with high inflation. Soros also articulated what most thinking investors already know. “The banking system, as a whole, is basically insolvent,” he said. Amen to that, brother.

*** Reuters reports that the U.S. Treasury Department is planning to delay the release of any completed bank stress test results until after the first-quarter earnings season, “in order to avoid complicating stock market reaction.” Think the Treasury made this decision because its stress tests are full of good news?  

*** The Geithner-Summers “legacy loan” program (the PPIP) could end up costing taxpayers than even we expected here at Notes . According to Columbia University economics professor Jeffrey Sachs, inside bidding within the program could stitch up the taxpayer to the tune of trillions of dollars. This from the Sachs, writing in Huffington Post:

    Consider a toxic asset held by Citibank with a face value of $1 million, but with zero probability of any payout and therefore with a zero market value. An outside bidder would not pay anything for such an asset. All of the previous articles consider the case of true outside bidders.
    Suppose, however, that Citibank itself sets up a Citibank Public-Private Investment Fund (CPPIF) under the Geithner-Summers plan. The CPPIF will bid the full face value of $1 million for the worthless asset, because it can borrow $850K from the FDIC, and get $75K from the Treasury, to make the purchase! Citibank will only have to put in $75K of the total.
    Citibank thereby receives $1 million for the worthless asset, while the CPPIF ends up with an utterly worthless asset against $850K in debt to the FDIC. The CPPIF therefore quietly declares bankruptcy, while Citibank walks away with a cool $1 million. Citibank’s net profit on the transaction is $925K (remember that the bank invested $75K in the CPPIF) and the taxpayers lose $925K. Since the total of toxic assets in the banking system exceeds $1 trillion, and perhaps reaches $2-3 trillion, the amount of potential rip-off in the Geithner-Summers plan is unconscionably large.

This may sound farfetched. (It certainly sounds like a huge scam.) But as Sachs points out, “Both BusinessWeek and the Financial Times report that the banks themselves might be invited to bid for the toxic assets, which would seem to set up just the scam outline above.” 

*** Gold prices rose today as stocks continued their slide. The yellow metal rose to just over $883 an ounce – another bad omen for stocks. But this isn’t where the real story is at. The real story has to do with a strange distortion in the gold markets. The last time this distortion happened, investors made as much as 15,650% or more.  

Well, it’s happening again. Investors around the world are snapping up gold bullion… mining stocks… gold ETFs, you name it. And for good reason: Our country’s spending binge is likely to cause massive inflation over the next few years. And gold is a great way to protect your wealth. Understand how the distortion works, and how to capitalize on it immediately, and you could make more money over the next 18 months than you’ve ever made in your life. Read this report to learn more.  

*** Are we in a depression? Communities in Detroit, New York state, North Carolina and Massachusetts certainly think they are. They’re printing up Great Depression-style scrips (local currencies) to keep cash circulating. According to this article in USA Today, about a dozen local communities are printing up their own scrips.

*** Members of Crisis Strategy Alert had plenty of warning of the dangers of the sucker’s rally. On March 27, James Dale Davidson sent this alert to members:

Remain cautious. An inherent feature of capital markets during depressions is their ability to mislead. Most investors do not appreciate the demonic efficiency of market crashes in eradicating wealth in the wake of credit bubbles.

Consider the track record of the stock market after 1929. Many people recall that the Dow declined 89% from its peak in September 1929 to its trough in July 1932. This implies that it would have been easy to stay short and make a tremendous fortune while the market tanked. Wrong.

What is less appreciated is that the market found a way of wiping out bears as well as bulls.

 The bears were busted by seven bear-killing rallies of 15% or more. The bulls were creamed by eight declines of 25% or more. Bulls, value investors, momentum traders – even the horoscope traders – if there were any, were wiped out. It did not matter what investment criteria impatient bulls applied, they were wiped out by premature calls of the bottom.

Any conventional investment plan was a failure. That is why Crisis Strategy Alert is a necessary addition to your investment arsenal.

It is your chance to take advantage of the years that I have spent studying past depressions.

Until tomorrow,

Will Bonner

 

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Now for Silver! 

A Simple Decision

By: Ted Butler of SilverSeek.com

One thing you can say about the recent sharp sell-off in silver, at the very least, is that it forces you to think. In fact, my friend and mentor, Izzy Friedman, wrote an article with that title a couple of years ago. http://www.investmentrarities.com/07-03-07.html Nothing focuses an investor’s attention more than a sudden decline in price, especially in an item one thought was undervalued to begin with. This is as it should be.

I’m not going to completely rehash the premise of the original article, but instead try to simplify the lesson of this most recent sell-off in silver. Why did it occur? And what should you learn from it?

Was there any obvious real world developments in actual silver supply and demand fundamentals that caused the price to decline? Not from anything I‘ve observed. Investor demand for real metal remained strong for every measurable category from strong ETF flows and record coin production and sales, to dramatic COMEX warehouse withdrawals, to continued disruptions in silver production and refining. Industrial consumption, admittedly weak, didn’t suddenly plunge anew in the last few weeks.

The explanation for the sell-off was the same as it ever was – price rigging on the COMEX. The big commercial shorts engineered the market lower to force leveraged longs on margin to sell, in order for the big shorts to buy back futures and other derivatives. Once again, the derivatives market tail wagged the real world price of silver dog. The good news is that the concentrated short position, while still large and manipulative, appears to be just about as low as it’s going to get, after this recent sell-off and the engineered decline over the past 8 months.

OK, if that’s the answer to why silver sold off, what’s the lesson? The lesson is that you must approach silver in such a way that you are not a victim of the manipulators. Buy for cash, don’t borrow or go on margin. You can’t prevent silver from dropping due to these rigged sell-offs, but you can prevent your silver from being taken away from you by forced margin call selling.

There’s a simple decision that every silver investor must make. You must decide whether you believe that the price of silver is manipulated or if it is functioning as a free market. This may sound weird at first, but if you decide that silver is not manipulated in price, but is trading free from control, you shouldn’t buy it or continue to hold it as an investment, in my opinion.

That’s because if you believe that the price of silver is free from an active downward manipulation, you must believe it is priced in accordance with everything you see around you. You must believe that consistent record demand for an item should result in sharply lower prices. You must be comfortable with delays and rising premiums being compatible with lower prices. You must be able to disregard documented proof of an unprecedented concentrated short position as unconvincing, and regulator stalling and double-talk as reassuring. You must see something I don’t see.

Instead, if you do see manipulation permeating the silver market, that is the best reason for buying. If you see manipulation, you see an artificially depressed price, a price screaming to be bought. If you see manipulation, you see a condition that can’t last, that must end. If you see manipulation, then everything makes sense about silver’s price history and circumstances. If you see manipulation, you know the usual commentary about silver is nonsense. If you see manipulation, you can understand the sharp sell-offs. If you see manipulation, you know it will end explosively to the upside.

While deciding for yourself whether silver is manipulated or not, here are some additional reasons to consider silver at this time. 

TEN REASONS TO BUY SILVER NOW

Amid all the recent attention I’ve placed on the continued manipulation in silver, some may mistakenly assume that diminishes the case for silver. Nothing could be further from the truth. I’m convinced that silver is a better buy than ever before. Here are detailed reasons why I believe that is the case.

One, the near-term emotional temperature of the market is low. There is no bullish “fever” where uniformed investors are driven to buy silver because of a sharply rising price. That will happen, but it’s not true now. While silver is still above the price lows of last fall and higher than year-end prices, the recent price action is nothing to write home about. The price has been below most of the important moving averages, causing silver to be “oversold.” This is a much better time to buy than when prices have already climbed and many are buying just because prices are rising. At those times the risk of a sharp sell-off is high. Now the risk of a prolonged price decline is much lower. Now is the time to buy low.

Two, leveraged speculators who normally buy COMEX futures contracts and Over The Counter (OTC) derivatives do not hold a historically significant number of long contracts. The big dealers have been so successful at forcing long speculators out of the market, that the speculative long position is at important low levels. This means that long speculators have already been forced to sell and no big selling from them appears probable. On any rise in price, they are likely to buy, adding a force to rising prices. Buy before they turn buyers.

Three, available wholesale silver inventories appear to be tight. These physical silver inventories are falling into stronger hands. For decades the world’s largest stockpiles of silver were the COMEX warehouse inventories. These COMEX inventories were considered mostly commercial in nature with some portion being held for investment purposes. The COMEX inventories peaked at around 280 million ounces in the early 1990’s, and accounted for 90% of all visible silver inventories. After the introduction of silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), there was a profound shift in the location and structure of world visible silver inventories.

Now, the combined inventories in the ETFs and other investment vehicles tower over the holdings in the COMEX by almost 4 to 1. (Over 400 million ounces in the ETFs compared to 120 million oz in COMEX inventories). Given the long-term nature of ETF investment holdings, this massive and historic shift in inventory composition means much less silver is now available to the market. This will exert a strong upward influence on price.

Four, all signs indicate that physical investment demand for silver on both a retail and wholesale basis is strong and could surge further. Until a few years ago, there was no net silver investment buying for decades. That pattern has changed with a vengeance. Clearly, the introduction of the ETFs has played a major role in this investment transformation.

The strong buying that we have seen does not appear to be “hot” money, but sober and determined accumulation. It wasn’t surging prices prompting buyers over the last six months. It’s due to a growing awareness and conviction about silver’s real supply and demand fundamentals. Importantly, there has been practically no buying of silver on a leveraged or margin basis. It’s mostly been cash on the barrel. These strong silver buyers will wait for significantly higher prices before selling. With higher prices inevitable at some point, the hot-money crowd should come in and blow the doors off the price.

Five, silver production is tightening, given the byproduct-nature of silver mining. As I have written recently, base metals production like copper, lead and zinc appears to have fallen significantly, also reducing the production of silver as a byproduct.

Six, world economic and financial conditions appear lined up to favor higher silver prices, no matter what occurs. If financial conditions remain unsettled, flight to quality buying in silver appears likely. If the world does return to better economic growth patterns, silver will benefit as a result of increased industrial consumption. Heads silver benefits, tails it also benefits.

Seven, more investors than ever have come to realize that the silver market has been manipulated and the government regulators and exchange officials are unable to persuasively address the growing evidence of a silver manipulation. The manipulation debate has become widespread in metal circles. It isn’t going away. The best the regulators have been able to do is to stall and pretend to be investigating. Fewer people are being fooled by such actions. A scam like the silver manipulation can’t continue when so many know about it. This scam will end suddenly and sharply in a price jump to the upside.

Eight, industrial demand for silver will continue to grow in the years ahead. New uses for silver appear regularly. A robust worldwide economy will initiate a new phase of silver demand. Higher prices will not diminish this demand because small amounts of silver are used in each industrial application.

Reasons nine and ten, silver prices are cheap on several important objective measurements. Silver is cheap compared to its own recent price. It is down more than 40% from its highs of one year ago, in spite of the strongest physical demand in history. More investment silver has been purchased over the past year than at any other period in history. At precisely the same time that prices have declined so sharply, more ETF-type buying has occurred than ever before and more Silver Eagles have been sold by the US Mint than ever before. We have witnessed the highest premiums on all retail forms of silver in history. This isn’t just me saying silver is cheap, this is the investment world voting with its collective wallet. Clearly, there is something wrong with this picture that can only be explained by manipulation on the COMEX and the OTC market by a few giant financial institutions, led by JPMorgan.

Silver is cheap on a cost of production basis. Never have the net operating results of so many different silver miners been so poor. The common denominator is too low a price for their main product. Silver is up three-fold from the lows of a few years ago, yet the silver mining industry still suffers. That’s because the cost of production has risen faster than the price of silver. That must be rectified.

Silver is dirt cheap relative to gold. While there is less above ground silver than gold, silver’s price has rarely been this low compared to gold.

The manipulation that explains why silver is so cheap cannot exist in a bona fide physical shortage. If the price stays low, growing numbers of investors buy real silver. That makes it harder for the manipulators to keep the price contained with paper derivatives. Some fret the scam can be continued indefinitely. If it were just a question of printing more money or more paper derivatives, perhaps that might be true. But it’s not about an unlimited supply of paper silver, it’s about a limited supply of physical silver that guarantees the manipulation will end soon. The termination of controls on the price of silver will be something we look back upon and marvel over how long it existed. Just make sure you are looking back while holding as much real silver as you can.

 

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

 See ya tomorrow! Good Investing – jschulmansr

====================================================

Subject: Two trending markets, S&P and Crude Oil; revisited and analyzed for you…

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:  Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested. This is an Awesome Free Service!

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

====================================================

 

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

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Ouch! What’s Going on With Gold?

06 Monday Apr 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in Austrian school, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, gold miners, hard assets, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Junior Gold Miners, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Latest News, majors, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Technical Analysis, TIPS, Today, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on Ouch! What’s Going on With Gold?

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Ouch! Gold had a little mis-step today. Gold closed down $24.50 to close at $872.80. So what happened? Todays Articles will help show why and what to expect in the days ahead. First, Gold had to fill a gap created about 39 tradings sessions ago, gap filled and Gold held at the $865 level. Gold has 2 more strong resistance levels, first at $855 the 200day moving average and then at $845 which represents a 50% retracement of the last Bull run up to $1007 from $680.75 low in Oct 08. The market is starting to become very oversold and “the sheeple” are starting to give up on Gold. I personally added a little more (DGP) late today and if Gold is temporarily driven down to the next major support at $820-$825 will add even more. Long term all of the fundamentals are looking good for Gold although on a seasonal basis, barring any dramatic unforseen events, Gold will probably be locked in a $850 to $1000 sideways market range until the end of Aug. For stocks we have almost finished with secondary upward wave, we may see a burst for the DJIA to potentially 9000, then look out below! My calls, 1st 6500 then potentially as low as 4500; all based on Elliot Wave Theory. Right now the higher they push stocks up the more they will fall. It almost seems like everyone has forgotten about Oil which is still trading above $50 barrel. However once again barring any dramatic news, seasonally Oil will also probably trade in a sideways range between $40- $60 barrel. I am still adding more mid-tier and Junior Gold and Precious metals producers, look carefully there are still good bargains out there. For all the Gold bugs out there Don’t Give Up!, good, no awesome returns are coming as early as the end of this year, maybe sooner! I think we will hold at the 200  day moving average and then sideways between $850 to $1000 until Aug. Then Gold is going to take off. This prediction is also predicated on NO new bad news or crisis’s popping up, a purely seasonal prediction play. If we have majors news then Gold will take off much earlier and either way set new all time highs as it begins it’s next leg of Gold’s major Bull Market Run! – Good Investing! – jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Subject: Two trending markets, S&P and Crude Oil; revisited and analyzed for you…

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:  Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested. This is an Awesome Free Service!

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

====================================================

Gold Falls below $870 on possible IMF gold sales, rising dollar – Marketwatch

By: Morning Zhou of MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold futures fell Monday for a third straight session to end near $870 an ounce, wiping out their yearly gains as traders shaved positions on worries that the 403 tons of gold sales by the International Monetary Fund will increase supply and depress gold prices.

Meanwhile, a stronger U.S. dollar also added downward pressures on gold prices.
“There is still this fear of a lot of selling coming from different central banks and the IMF,” said George Gero, a precious metals trader for RBC Capital Markets. “The perception is that ‘I am getting out of the way until all the sales are completed and let’s see how it’s absorbed.'”
Gold for April delivery fell $24.10, or 2.7%, to end at $871.50 an ounce in North American electronic trading. It dropped to as low as $865.10 earlier. The more active June contract also fell Monday, down 3.2% at $868.50.
Gold has lost nearly 6% since April 1 and is now down 1.4% for the year, partly out of optimism that collective actions by leaders of the world’s major nations may stem the global economic crisis.
In spot trading, the benchmark London afternoon gold-fixing price stood at $870.25 an ounce Monday, down $34.75, or 3.8%, from the previous day.
 
In other metals futures, silver for May delivery fell 4.9% to $12.11 an ounce. June palladium was up 0.4% at $225.75 an ounce, while April platinum fell 1.2% to $1,145.70 an ounce.
May copper dropped 2.1% to $1.959 a pound.
IMF gold sales
Leaders from the Group of 20 nations said last Thursday they endorse 403 tons of gold sales by the IMF. The proceeds will be used to provide finance for the poorest countries over the next two to three years.
The announcement came one day after the European Central Bank said it had completed the sale of 35.5 tons of gold.
The IMF’s plan to sell the gold still needs to be approved by an 85% majority vote from its 185 members. The U.S., which has 17% voting power in the fund, essentially holds veto power. See full story on IMF gold sales.
If the plan is approved, the gold selling will be implemented in coordination with major central banks to minimize the impact on the market, the IMF said.
The possible IMF gold sales helped gold prices move lower in the short turn, said Hussein Allidina, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. But he added he sees “any weakness in price as a buying opportunity as the sale would occur over years and be under the CBGA limit.”
The second Central Banks Gold Agreement, or CBGA, caps total gold sales of the signatories at 500 tons a year and expires in September. A third CBGA is expected to be signed before September. See related story about central bank gold selling.
Also helping gold move lower Monday, the U.S. dollar rose against most of its major rivals Monday, with the dollar index (DXY: 84.64, +0.48, +0.6%) up nearly 1% at 84.767. See Currencies.
A stronger greenback tends to push down dollar-denominated prices of commodities such as gold and crude. Crude futures fell nearly 4% Monday.
Falling ETF investment
Investment in gold exchange-traded funds also stalled recently. Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD 85.27, -2.32, -2.6%) , the biggest gold exchange-traded fund, stood at 1,127.37 tons Friday, down slightly from a day ago, according to latest data from the fund.
It’s the first drop in SPDR holdings in one month. The SPDR lost 2.2% to $85.68 on Monday.
Investors seeking investment safe haven had been buying gold earlier this year as deepening troubles in the economy pushed stocks to their lowest level in decades. But actions from the world’s major nations has boosted investment sentiment and reduced gold’s safe-haven appeal.
The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed more than $10 trillion to stem the economic downturn since the financial crisis began. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech Friday that he expects the gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth is coming.
The recent weakness in gold prices is “a sure sign risk appetite has increased further following the actions of various governments and central banks as well as the combined efforts of the G20 nations last week,” said James Moore, a precious metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com End of Story
Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.
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Gold Approaching 200-Day Moving Average – Seeking Alpha
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
With a decline of 3% today, gold is on the verge of testing its 200-day moving average for the first time since early January. With the exception of a one-day spike on the day the Fed said it would buy US Treasuries (3/18), gold has pretty much traded down in a straight line. Even though most observers said the Fed’s action would lead to inflation down the road, the price of gold is now lower today than it was before the announcement.

click to enlarge

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My Note: think we will hold at the 200  day moving average and then sideways between $850 to $1000 until Aug. Then Gold is going to take off. This prediction is also predicated on NO new bad news or crisis’s popping up, a purely seasonal prediction play. If we have majors news then Gold will take off much earlier and either way set new all time highs as it begins it’s next leg of Gold’s major Bull Market Run! – Jschulmansr

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Low Gold Price a Buying Opportunity – Seeking Alpha
By: Brad Zigler of Hard Assets Investor
Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.1%

You could just see things ending badly for gold Friday. April COMEX gold settled at $895.60, near the low of the day, after near-term momentum turned bearish. This morning’s trade looks weaker still after London dealers marked bullion at $879.50.

Another soft New York close will likely set up a test of longer-term support at the 100-day moving average, now at $869.70.

COMEX Spot Gold

COMEX Spot Gold

London’s gold spreads, too, are painting a rather dreary tableau for bullion. The 12-month contango is shrinking against that of three-month forwards after gold’s previous run-up yielded only modest gains for bull spreaders.

Throw in the narrowing of credit spreads and the current resurgence of the equities market and the indifference to the metal is palpable. The three-month TED spread – that is, the difference between U.S. Treasuries and the London Interbank Offered Rate [LIBOR] – dipped below 100 basis points (1%) last week for the first time since February 26. The spread’s downward momentum through the week reflected an easing of the worries that had driven so much capital to seek the shelter of gold.

London Gold Forward Spread (3-Month Vs. 12-Month)

London Gold Forward Spread (3-Month Vs. 12-Month)

 

That’s not to say that gold’s run is over or that we’ve finally turned the corner on the financial crisis. There’s an ebb and flow to any market, even those that are strongly trending.

A market like this, in fact, seems to be providing opportunities for gold buyers with modestly bullish sentiments. Some were seen this morning trading gold puts on June COMEX contracts.

With June gold at $880, the $850 puts changed hands at $26 an ounce. Put sellers gave buyers the right to put, or to sell, June gold futures at $850 through May 26. For taking that right, put buyers paid a per-contract premium of $2,600.

Here’s the reason the put sellers took on the risk. It’s unlikely that the puts would be exercised until, and unless, June gold dipped below the puts’ $850 strike price, so the put sellers either hold a conviction that prices will remain above that level, or, if they in fact sink through it, that the excursion will be short-lived.

If the puts remain out-of-the-money for the next month, the sellers get to keep the premium and the put expires unexercised. If futures are instead put to the option grantors, they’d end up with a long position at an effective purchase price of $824. Subsequent price advances in June futures above $824, if they occur, would engender gains for the option writers. Of course, losses would be open-ended if prices collapse.

More glass-half-full optimism brought to you by your friendly neighborhood options marketplace.

==============================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

================================================

Have A Great Afternoon & Good Investing! – jschulmansr

================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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Emergency Broadcast- Wake Up! It is Almost Too Late!

04 Saturday Apr 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, Barack, Barack Hussein Obama, Barack Obama, bear market, Bear Trap, Bildenberger's, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, capitalism, CDE, CEF, central banks, CFR, China, Comex, commodities, communism, Conservative, Conservative Resistance, Contrarian, Copper, Council on Foreign Relations, crash, Credit Default, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the money, follow the news, Forex, fraud, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, G-20, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Julian D.W. Phillips, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Make Money Investing, manipulation, Marc Faber, Market Bubble, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, New World Order, NGC, NWO, NXG, obama, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, S&P 500, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, SLW, small caps, socialism, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, SWC, TARP, Technical Analysis, The Fed, TIPS, Today, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

We are watching history unfold before our very eyes while being skillfully manipulated, distracted, and kept in the dark. This special edition has video’s, articles, and proof that we are being played for suckers and fools. “They” think if the can keep us hypnotized and asleep that they will succeed. What is needed today is a new generation of Paul Revere’s to sound the alarm for Americans. We have been invaded and are losing the war without so much as a whimper! NOW right now is the time to stop being Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, now is the time to UNITE AS AMERICANS! WE NEED TO KEEP AMERICA FREE AND WE NEED TO START NOW! IT IS ALREADY ALMOST TOO LATE!

***PLEASE*** Do your own research and find out for yourself… Google Search the terms”New World Order”, “TriLateral Commission”, “Council on Foreign Relations”, and “Bildenberger’s” find out how many highly respected people are finally starting to warn you about this sinister and outright grab for world domination! After you finish this post, please pass/send the link to this post onto as many people as you can… before it is too late! -jschulmansr

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This was sent to me by Peter Grandich

Peter Grandich was the founder and managing member of Grandich Publications which published The Grandich Letter since 1984. His commentary on the mining and metals markets have been read by tens of thousands of subscribers and relied upon by major financial media around the world.

Here is his Latest Blog Post

Grandich Opens The Closet Door Again – Agoracom

By: Peter Grandich

When I came out of the closet, I made it known I would do more than just comment about markets here. I knew some would not like it then and I know some will not like it now.

From time to time during my 25 years in and around the financial industry, I would come across an individual or group who would preach about “A New World Order” or something to that effect. I found most of these people either “out in left field” or had an agenda to sell products and services to go along with their “views”. However in recent times, I’ve come across some very intelligent people and groups who have demonstrated to me they were neither kooks nor salesmen. Their thoughts and opinions were both logical and reasonable.

After watching and listening to what has unfolded at the G-20 this past week and what’s been evolving in Washington and throughout the United States, I no longer wonder is something along the lines of a “New World Order” possible, but rather how far long are we to one?

This is not a kook’s only video.

As an American, I’m extremely concern we’re losing (or already lost) what made this country once great. I believe our President and me see things much differently. I find what this gentleman portrayed in this video to be of keen interest to me and what I believe this country must do before it’s too late.

Finally, I’ve had more discussions with various people about what we can do if we’re truly entering a tribulation or a way of life totally different then our past generations. I tell them I worry too but then I try to remember this and to realize the battle may be near but the outcome has already been determined.

“Jesus said, I have told you these things so that in me you may have peace. In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world.”    John 16:33

Have a most blessed Holy Week!

Here is the Video…

=============================================

Next Comes From Alex Jones of Prison Planet.com

The Obama Deception HQ Full length version- You Tube

Source: You Tube

=========================

This is From Bloomberg Financial News:

G-20 To Shapes New World Order With Lesser Role For U.S., Markets – Bloomberg.com

By Rich Miller and Simon Kennedy

April 3 (Bloomberg) — Global leaders took their biggest steps yet toward a new world order that’s less U.S.-centric with a more heavily regulated financial industry and a greater role for international institutions and emerging markets.

At the end of a summit in London, policy makers from the Group of 20 yesterday delivered a regulatory blueprint that French President Nicholas Sarkozy said turned the page on the Anglo-Saxon model of free markets by placing stricter limits on hedge funds and other financiers. The leaders also pledged to triple the resources of the International Monetary Fund and to hand China and other developing economies a greater say in the management of the world economy.

“It’s the passing of an era,” said Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International, who helped prepare summits for presidents Gerald R. Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. “The U.S. is becoming less dominant while other nations are gaining influence.”

A lot was at stake. If the leaders had failed to forge a consensus — Sarkozy this week threatened to quit the talks if they didn’t back much tighter regulation — it might have set back the world’s economy and markets just as they’re showing signs of shaking off the worst financial crisis in six decades.

That’s what happened in 1933, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt torpedoed a similar conference in London by rejecting its plan to stabilize currency rates and in the process scotched international efforts to lift the world out of a depression.

More Conciliation

Seeking to avoid a repeat of that historic flop, President Barack Obama junked the at-times go-it-alone approach of his predecessor, George W. Bush, and adopted a more conciliatory stance toward his fellow leaders.

“In a world that is as complex as it is, it is very important for us to be able to forge partnerships as opposed to simply dictating solutions,” Obama told a press conference at the conclusion of the summit.

Stock markets rose in response to the steps taken by the G-20 leaders. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 2.9 percent to 834.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 216.48 points, or 2.8 percent, to 7,978.08. Both closed at their highest levels since the second week of February.

In an effort to promote harmony, Obama soft-pedaled earlier U.S. demands that the summit agree on a specific target for fiscal stimulus in the face of opposition from France and Germany. Instead, he settled for a vague pledge that the leaders would do whatever it takes to revive the global economy.

Repudiation of Past

The president also signed on to a communiqué that Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said repudiated the previous U.S.-led push to free capitalism from the constraints of governments.(See My Post From Yesterday For Actual Article)

“This is a major step forward and a reversal of the ideology of the 1990s, and at a very official level, a rejection of the ideas pushed by the U.S. and others,” said Stiglitz, an economics professor at Columbia University. “It’s a historic moment when the world came together and said we were wrong to push deregulation.”

In bowing to that view, the leaders conceded in a statement that “major failures” in regulation had been “fundamental causes” of the market turmoil they are trying to tackle. To make amends and to try to avoid a repeat of the crisis, they pledged to impose stronger restraints on hedge funds, credit rating companies, risk-taking and executive pay.

“Countries that used to defend deregulation at any cost are recognizing that there needs to be a larger state presence so this crisis never happens again,” said Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

Financial Stability Board

A new Financial Stability Board will be established to unite regulators and join the IMF in providing early warnings of potential threats. Once the economy recovers, work will begin on new rules aimed at avoiding excessive leverage and forcing banks to put more money aside during good times.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had unsuccessfully sought to convince the U.S. and Britain to sign on to similar steps before the crisis began in mid-2007, hailed the communiqué as a “victory for common sense.”

The U.S. did, though, take the lead in getting the summit to agree on an increase in IMF rescue funds to $750 billion from $250 billion now. Japan, the European Union and China will provide the first $250 billion of the increase, with the balance to come from as yet unidentified countries.

“This will provide the IMF with enough resources to meet the needs of East European nations and also provide back-up funding to a broader set of countries,” said Brad Setser, a former U.S. Treasury official who’s now at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

IMF Allocation

The G-20 also agreed to an allocation of $250 billion in Special Drawing Rights, the artificial currency that the IMF uses to settle accounts among its member nations. The move is akin to a central bank such as the Federal Reserve effectively creating money out of thin air, except it’s on a global scale.

The increase in Special Drawing Rights will allow countries to tap IMF money without having to accept changes to economic policies often demanded as a condition of aid. The cash is disbursed in proportion to the money each member-nation pays into the fund. Rich nations will be allowed to divert their allocations to countries in greater need.

The G-20 said they would couple the financing moves with steps to give emerging economic powerhouses such as China, India and Brazil a greater say in how the IMF is run.

Emerging Markets Benefit

Citigroup Inc. economists Don Hanna and Jurgen Michels called the summit agreement “a boon to emerging markets” in a note to clients yesterday.

Mexico said Wednesday it will seek $47 billion from the IMF under the Washington-based lender’s new Flexible Credit Line, which allows some countries to borrow money with no conditions.

Emerging-market stocks, bonds and currencies rallied yesterday on speculation other developing nations will follow Mexico’s lead. Gains in Polish, Czech and Brazilian stocks helped push the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 5.6 percent to 613.07, the highest since Oct. 15.

In a bid to avoid another mistake of the depression era, G-20 leaders repeated an earlier pledge to avoid trade protectionism and beggar-thy-neighbor policies that could aggravate the decline in the global economy.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted this week that global trade will shrink 13 percent this year as loss-ridden banks cut back on credit to exporters and importers.

Trade Finance

To help combat that, the G-20 said they will make at least $250 billion available in the next two years to support the finance of trade through export credit agencies and development banks such as the World Bank.

The summit took place amid speculation among investors that the deepest global recession in six decades may be abating. Data released yesterday showed orders placed with U.S. factories rose in February for the first time in seven months, U.K. house prices unexpectedly gained in March and Chinese manufacturing increased. Still, a report today is forecast to show U.S. unemployment at its highest in a quarter-century.

“If the economy turns more favorable, this meeting will probably be viewed as a milestone,” said C. Fred Bergsten, a former U.S. official and director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

The G-20 members are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the U.S., the U.K. and the European Union. Officials from Spain and the Netherlands were also present.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rich Miller in Washington rmiller28@bloomberg.net; Simon Kennedy in Paris at Skennedy4@bloomberg.net

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G20 ushers in a ‘new world order’- Globe and Mail

BOLD STEPS 8 Leaders shift from U.S. model of freewheeling finance, forming historic accord to regulate risk UNITED FRONT 8 Countries pledge $1-trillion in aid for struggling nations, but economists blast lack of new stimulus

ERIC REGULY AND BRIAN LAGHI

April 3, 2009

LONDON — The leaders of the Group-of-20 countries put on a show of unity yesterday to fight the global recession with pledges of more than $1-trillion (U.S.) in aid to help struggling countries and revive trade.

But their failure to unveil new stimulus spending was criticized as a “disappointment” by economists, who fear the global downturn will only deepen unless governments everywhere open the stimulus spigots even further.

The G20 countries also agreed to rein in the world’s financial system through the creation of international accounting standards, the regulation of debt-ratings agencies and hedge funds, a clampdown on tax havens and controls on executive pay. But the lack of details on these proposals suggests they will not become effective any time soon.

U.S. President Barack Obama, who had been calling for more stimulus spending, nonetheless welcomed the communiqué.

“The steps that have been taken are critical to preventing us sliding into a depression,” Mr. Obama told reporters after the close of the G20 gathering. “They are bolder and more rapid than any international response that we’ve seen to a financial crisis in memory.”

Characterizing the agreement as historic, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the summit’s host, said the agreement ushered in a new period of international co-operation while ending the era of the Washington consensus, a term from the late 1980s that has come to be equated with market fundamentalism.

“Today we have reached a new consensus that we take global action together to deal with problems that we face, that we will do what is necessary to restore growth,” he said.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper joined fellow leaders in the praise, saying new regulations will help the market work better. “The declaration is very clear that globalization, that open markets, that liberalized trade remain the essential base of our economic system and will be the basis of any recovery and future economic growth,” he said.

The agreement was the object of last-minute negotiations, and overcame the initial objections of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who at one point threatened to leave the meeting if it did not agree with his position on stricter regulation of the financial world.

Ms. Merkel said she was pleased the group came to a broad agreement after such a short period of time. “We now have been able to rally around a message of unity,” she told a news conference.

Mr. Sarkozy said his alliance with Ms. Merkel worked well.

“We would never have hoped to get so much,” he said.

Yesterday’s agreement calls for the creation of a Financial Stability Board, which is designed to work with the International Monetary Fund to provide early warning of financial risks and the actions needed to reduce them. The agreement says the countries will take action against tax havens by slapping sanctions against offending nations. “The era of banking secrecy is over,” the communiqué said.

The $1-trillion-plus in emergency aid is anchored by a commitment to add $500-billion to the resources of the IMF, taking it to $750-billion, a level that should give it enough firepower to extend bailout loans to the hardest-hit countries. Of this amount, $100-billion will come from the European Union, $100-billion from Japan and $40-billion from China.

Another $250-billion will be given to the IMF to support special drawing rights, the organization’s own “basket” currency that can be used to boost global liquidity. Trade finance will be supported with $250-billion channelled through the World Bank and export agencies, though almost none of that amount has been committed yet. The IMF has also agreed to sell gold reserves to provide as much as $50-billion in aid to the poorest countries.

The G20’s IMF measures were more aggressive than expected and helped lift the world’s markets. Commodities such as oil and metals rose as traders evidently took the view that global growth would revive more quickly than they had expected. News of possible U.S. accounting changes of the mark-to-market rules, used to value assets, helped to trigger a bank rally.

“What is most encouraging for the G20 leaders summit in London today is the building evidence that the Lehman-related collapse in global demand seems to be coming to an end,” Derek Halpenny, the head of currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London said in a report yesterday.

The communiqué also called on countries to resist protectionist measures.

The regulatory changes agreed by the G20 countries are sweeping, but lacked detail about their scope and implementation, whether or not they could be enforced globally or nationally.

Mr. Brown said that hedge funds, whose failure can trigger a domino effect in the financial-services industry, would be subject to greater regulation and oversight. Pay and bonuses will have to adhere to “sustainable” compensation schemes.

“There will be no more rewards for failure,” Mr. Brown said.

The leaders, emboldened by the recent progress in prying open tax havens, said sanctions will be slapped on any sponsor country that refuses to sign international agreements to exchange tax information.

Mr. Brown said another G20 summit will take place late this year – city to be determined – to review the measures unveiled yesterday and at previous summits

==========================================

Finally From Jim Sinclair

More of The Exact Same- JSMinset.com

My Dear Friends,

All that has changed is more of what caused this problem in the first place. You are being lied to yet again.

1. Gold is your lifeline, nothing else. I assure you of this.

2. When reality hits, as it will, it will be too late to seek a lifeline.

3. If you let go of your lifeline you have put more into harm’s way than just an investment or a portfolio item.

4. In the final analysis gold and the dollar are inverse to each other.

5. The dollar is only considered a lifeline when viewed from the intoxicants of spin.

6. Gold is a currency.

7. Gold currency is the monetary unit of last resort. Reality is that we all will require a last resort.

8. The G20 was not an intervention that can stop a downward spiral because it produced more of the stuff that caused the disaster in the first place, monetary inflation. 9. Monetary inflation is what the downward spiral is made of.

10. Be logical.

11. Stop being emotional.

12. Anything you can stare down, you can overcome. Stare down your foolish emotions and adhere to reason.

The following is hot air and fabrication. There is no new world. All that has occurred is the plan to create USD $1 Trillion in new monetary inflation. The G20 was all PR that produced more of what has caused the disaster in the first place, another one trillion in monetary inflation that has no means of being withdrawn ever from the international system.

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market

Find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

========================================================

My Note: Protect Yourself, Help Claim America Back. Do your research on what is really going on try these searches in Google NWO- New World Order, CFR- Council On Foreign Relations, Bildenberger’s. Judge for yourself especially in light of what you watched in the videos. Buy Gold, and then take action to save our country! -jschulmansr

==================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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Is The Party Over For Stocks? Part 3 –

02 Thursday Apr 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 17898337, 20 yr Treasuries, ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, capitalism, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, Dow Industrials, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, EGO, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, Forex, fraud, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, G-20, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Make Money Investing, manipulation, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NASDQ, NGC, NXG, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, stock market, Stocks, SWC, Technical Analysis, The Fed, TIPS, Today, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on Is The Party Over For Stocks? Part 3 –

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

In today’s post you’ll find out what really started this upward move for the temporary bottom put in place around 6500 on the Dow. Plus you will find out why long term how dangerous this is for us as American Taxpayers! Otherwise, today is the big test day, is this the exhaustion push of the bear market rally or is it confirmation of the beginning of a new bull market? Could it simply be window dressing fir the end of the first Quarter? Fundamentally speaking we have some slight (very slight) signs of recovery for the economy. After all pumping in over 3 Trillion dollars into the economy you’d think we would be seeing more. Inflation is continuing to rise. If you don’t believe me go buy some groceries everything is at least $1 higher than 1 month ago There are also some serious rifts growing in the G-20. Who would have ever thought that our European allies would be lecturing us on economics. China is continuing to grow more nervous and is seeking more collateral  for their loans to us. Here’s my take, today is the 3rd test at 8000, if we can successfully close over that mark then the next real test will be at 8500. Conversely, failure to hold this level will not bode well at all for stocks. and I think we will go back and test the lows in the 6500 levels. The “shorts” have sucked the “sheeples” money in. Once again my contrarian instinct is taking over as all of the talk is about this is it! “We have now begun the next great rally for stocks.” Even though you are not hearing much about it Inflation is already here and with the U.S. Dollar printing presses still running full steam and overtime, I believe that very soon we will be talking about not just inflation; but hyper-inflation. However with all the news machines telling you to get into stocks now or you will miss it;  people are even pouring out of Gold currently $899 – $902oz. However if you push euphoria and hope aside, all of the fundamentals for stocks looks very grim indeed. I am continuing to load up on more Precious Metals producers mining stocks, have re-entered (DGP), and am in process of purchasing more physical gold. From a risk to reward ratio shorting the S&P 500 and Dow Indy’s is looking very interesting right now.  Don’t get suckered into regular stocks unless they are in Oil and Precious Metals. Both markets have some exceptional companies selling for very cheap levels. If I am wrong, obviously the market will tell; but I can honestly say I am putting my own money where my mouth is… Good Investing! -jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:  Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market

Find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

========================================================

In the article that follows it is actually a report done on an article in the New York Times by Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz a Nobel Prize winning economist. I highly reccomend that you read the complete article. But what follows below is an excellent synopsis with good commentary. This is the real reason why this rally has occured, Geitner’s Banking Plan is excellent for Wall Street and the Banks, for Investors, at the expense of U.S. Taxpayers! Read On… -jschulmansr

Nobel Laureate Stiglitz: The Administration’s Ersatz Capitalism – Seeking Alpha

By: Paul Haruni of Wall Street Pit

Nobel laureate in economics Joseph Stiglitz writes in The New York Times that Treasury Geithner’s $500 billion or more proposal to fix America’s ailing banks, described by some in the financial markets as a win-win-win situation, it’s actually a win-win-lose proposal: the banks win, investors win — and taxpayers lose.

The Treasury, argues the professor of economics at Columbia Univesity – hopes to get us out of the mess by replicating the flawed system that the private sector used to bring the world crashing down, with a proposal that has overleveraging in the public sector, excessive complexity, poor incentives and a lack of transparency.

In theory, the administration’s plan, continues Mr. Stiglitz, is based on letting the market determine the prices of the banks’ “toxic assets” — including outstanding house loans and securities based on those loans. The reality, though, is that the market will not be pricing the toxic assets themselves, but options on those assets.

Mr. Stiglitz uses the example of an asset that has a 50-50 chance of being worth either zero or $200 in a year’s time. The average “value” of the asset is $100. Ignoring interest, this is what the asset would sell for in a competitive market. It is what the asset is “worth.” Under the plan by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the government would provide about 92% of the money to buy the asset but would stand to receive only 50% of any gains, and would absorb almost all of the losses, Mr. Stiglitz says. Some partnership!

What the Obama administration is doing is far worse than nationalization: it is ersatz capitalism, the privatizing of gains and the socializing of losses. It is a “partnership” in which one partner robs the other. And such partnerships — with the private sector in control — have perverse incentives, worse even than the ones that got us into the mess.

Paying fair market values for the assets will not work. Only by overpaying for the assets will the banks be adequately recapitalized. But overpaying for the assets simply shifts the losses to the government. In other words, the Geithner plan works only if and when the taxpayer loses big time.

So what is the appeal of a proposal like this? Perhaps it’s the kind of Rube Goldberg device that Wall Street loves — clever, complex and nontransparent, allowing huge transfers of wealth to the financial markets. It has allowed the administration to avoid going back to Congress to ask for the money needed to fix our banks, and it provided a way to avoid nationalization.

But we are already suffering from a crisis of confidence. When the high costs of the administration’s plan become apparent, confidence will be eroded further. At that point the task of recreating a vibrant financial sector, and resuscitating the economy, will be even harder.

Essentially Stiglitz’s point is that Treasury Geithner, Wall Street’s new main operative after Paulson, and the administration itself for that matter want to bribe investors to buy up “toxic (junk, trash) assets” and guarantee their losses with taxpayer money. A calculative move since it would facilitate a vast and unprecedented transfer of wealth from the great majority of taxpayers (the working class) to the banks, bondholders and the wealthy.

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a professor of economics at Columbia who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from 1995 to 1997, was awarded the Nobel prize in economics in 2001.

After Paul Krugman, Prof. Stiglitz is the second Nobel prize-winning economists to rightly criticize the administration’s plan for what it is. A massive, disguised theft.

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Hyper-Inflation: Central Banks Gone Wild – Investment U

By: Micheal Checkan of Asset Strategies International

Editor’s Note: Many of our long-time readers will remember our old friend and colleague Michael Checkan at Asset Strategies International, Inc. A specialist in precious metals and foreign currencies, today he takes a look at a unique “hyper-inflationary” economy and the havoc it plays on foreign currencies.
With the U.S. Government printing money like never before, the whispers of inflation float over the currency and bond markets. In fact, inflation has dropped to almost nothing after hitting a high of 5.6% in July of last year.

Within the past two weeks the Fed created one trillion dollars out of thin air. Apart from left or right wing rhetoric, this is reality.

History has taught us that governments can take a perfectly good piece of paper, put some ink on it, and make it totally worthless.

It happened in Hungary in 1946, Argentina in 1988 and today in Zimbabwe.

Since entering the foreign currency and precious metals business in the 1960’s, I’ve seen it happen more than a few times. But extreme examples of currency devaluation are rare. It can be compared to a slow motion train wreck you just can’t keep your eyes off.

Today, Zimbabwe looks to take its place in history with the most corrupt government and devalued currency for the record books. Apart from being just another economic disaster and newspaper headline, we can learn something from these extreme examples of central banks gone wild and why inflation is so important.

What is Hyper-Inflation?

I saw hyper-inflation first hand when I visited Argentina in 1988. At the time, their government was using the Austral as their currency and inflation was running at 387.7%.

Afterwards, the currency name was changed to the Peso and eventually the hard or new Peso. Visiting last year I still found a questionable government dealing with political, economic and social unrest. Unfortunately, currency devaluation is just one of their issues.

You can expect to see more changes in their currency in the years ahead.

Inflation is the rising cost of daily goods and services – usually based off the Consumer Price Index. There’s a humorous quote that says, “With inflation, everything gets more valuable except money.” But it’s a great way to explain why inflation needs to be managed. Hyper-inflation is simply runaway inflation.

Imagine a $2.00 gallon of milk spiking to $775.40 within a year – like in Argentina, 1988.

That’s no April Fool’s joke.

Some inflation is necessary for individuals to see a reason for investing their money. If your dollar was going to be worth a dollar “tomorrow,” you would be less inclined to risk it in an investment. Inflation eats away at purchasing power.

Central Banks and governments have a number of other tools at their disposal to influence inflation, but their main tools are to shrink the money supply and raise interest rates. On average the United States sees inflation at around 3-4%.

Argentina’s troubles are nothing compared to the state of Zimbabwean currency.

“The death knell for the Zimbabwean dollar came as it does for currencies in all hyper-inflationary markets. That is, people just refuse to use the money. It really is a nuisance. So it just disappears on you,” said Steve H. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University.

Officially, Zimbabwe’s monthly inflation is an unfathomable 231 million percent.

And while outrageous, that figure may be far too small. In November, the last time reliable data was available, Hanke calculated it at 79.6 billion percent and proclaimed Zimbabwe “second place in the world hyper-inflation record books.” Currently, the largest note in circulation is a $100 trillion note.

Hyper-Inflation & The Zimbabwe Banknote – Collecting Funny Money

My good friend, David who also deals in banknotes and coins says,

“The situation with the Zimbabwe banknote is complicated because the new notes so rapidly become worthless it seems the Central Bank does not produce as many.

In any case I’ve managed to accumulate some and I am constantly working at it. You are aware that last August after getting up to 100 billion they started the new currency. The new currency has now had a short life. It is now being replaced with the “new” new currency.

I saw on the web site of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe the new, new, new banknotes. The only question is how long it will take before they get up to a quadrillion?”

Of course in these situations there’s always profit to be made. In this case, it’s exploiting the value of the physical coins and the value of the hyper-inflated notes.

“I happen to have a lot of one-cent coins from a few years back. The basic idea is to go to the bank with a 100 billion dollar note and request the 10 trillion 1 cent coins. Because the coin weighs about two grams, one would expect to receive 20 trillion grams of coins, which is 20 billion kilos or 20 million tons. The coin is made of steel with a copper coating. That is a lot of metal.”

It’s a physical impossibility for Zimbabwe to make good on their printing presses’ obligations in coins. From a far worse perspective, they are destroying their economy and global investment interest.

David tells me the Zimbabwean banknotes may be monetarily worthless, but they do have collector value. Some currency collectors are rushing to pick up as many of these “super-notes” as possible.

How many Americans can say they’ve held a 100 trillion dollar note? I prefer to think that a “trillionaire” should reach that status because of hard work and luck, not because their government can’t keep its hands off the printing presses.

It’s a sobering lesson on the dangers of too much money.

Good investing,

Michael Checkan

Editor’s Note: Michael is the President of Asset Strategies International and has been a Pillar One Partner with The Oxford Club for more than a decade. Asset Strategies is a consulting and broker/dealer investment firm specializing in precious metals, offshore wealth protection, inter-bank foreign currency transactions and banknote trading. To find out more about his free Information Line newsletter, go here.

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Next- More Evidence of Massive Collaberation and Central Banks Suppression of Gold Prices and actual Fraud? Securities lawyer Avery Goodman, writing today at Seeking Alpha, notes the coincidence of huge gold offtake at the Comex and a sudden huge sale of gold by the European Central Bank. He adds that evidence of gold market manipulation is so great that the authorities should start investigating it. But of course the manipulation is DONE by the authorities, so the investigation will have to be done by the financial press. (It would be nice if someone invented such a press soon.) Read On… – Can You Say “Short Squeeze” in the making! – jschulmansr

Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default? – Seeking Alpha

By: Avery Goodman

On Tuesday morning, gold derivatives dealers, who had sold short in the face of a fast rising gold price, faced a serious predicament. Some 27,000 + contracts, representing about 15% of the April COMEX gold futures contracts remained open. Technically, short sellers are required to give “notice” of delivery to long buyers. However, in reality, buyers are the ones who control the amount of gold to be delivered. They “demand” delivery of physical gold by holding futures contracts past the expiration date. This time, long buyers were demanding in droves.

In normal times, very few people do this. Only about 1% or less of gold contracts must be delivered. The lack of delivery demand allows the casino-like world of paper gold futures contracts to operate. Very few short sellers actually expect or intend to deliver real gold. They are, mostly, merely playing with paper. It was amazing, therefore, when March 30, 2009 came and passed, and so many people stood for delivery, refusing to part with their long gold futures positions.

On Tuesday, March 31st, Deutsche Bank (DB) amazed everyone even more, by delivering a massive 850,000 ounces, or 850 contracts worth of the yellow metal. By the close of business, even after this massive delivery, about 15,050 April contracts, or 1.5 million ounces, still remained to be delivered. Most of these, of course, are unlikely to be the obligations of Deutsche Bank. But, the fact that this particular bank turned out to be one of the biggest short sellers of gold, is a surprise. Most people presumed that the big COMEX gold short sellers are HSBC (HBC) and/or JP Morgan Chase (JPM). That may be true. However, it is abundantly clear that they are not the only game in town.

Closely connected institutions, it seems, do not have to worry about acting irresponsibly, in taking on more obligations than they can fulfill. Mysteriously, on the very same day that gold was due to be delivered to COMEX long buyers, at almost the very same moment that Deutsche Bank was giving notice of its deliveries, the ECB happened to have “sold” 35.5 tons, or a total of 1,141,351 ounces of gold, on March 31, 2009. Convenient, isn’t it? Deutsche Bank had to deliver 850,000 ounces of physical gold on that day, and miraculously, the gold appeared out of nowhere.

The announcement of the ECB sale was made, as usual, dryly, without further comment. There was little more than a notation of a sale, as if it were a meaningless blip in the daily activity of the central bank. But, it was anything but meaningless. It may have saved a major clearing member of the COMEX futures exchange from defaulting on a huge derivatives position. We don’t know who the buyer(s) was, but we don’t leave our common sense at home. The ECB simply states that 35.5 tons were sold, and doesn’t name any names. Common sense, logic and reason tells us that the buyer was Deutsche Bank, and that the European Central Bank probably saved the bank and COMEX from a huge problem. What about the balance, above 850,000 ounces? What will happen to that? I am willing to bet that Deutsche Bank will use it, in June, to close out remaining short positions, or that it will be sold into the market, at an opportune time, if it hasn’t already been sold on Tuesday, to try to control the inevitable rise of the price of gold.

Circumstantial evidence has always been a powerful force in the law. It allows police, investigators, lawyers and judges to ferret out the truth. Circumstantial evidence is admissible in any court of law to prove a fact. It is used all the time, both when we initiate investigations, and once we seek indictments and convictions. We do this because we deal in a corrupt world, filled with suspicious actions and lies, and the circumstances are often suspicious enough to give rise to a strong inference that something is amiss. Most of the time, when the direct evidence is insufficient to prove a case beyond a reasonable doubt, or even by a preponderance of direct evidence, circumstantial evidence fills the void, and gives us the conviction. We even admit evidence of the circumstances to prove murder cases. In light of that, it certainly seems appropriate to use circumstantial evidence in evaluating possible regulatory violations. The size and timing of the delivery of Deutsche Bank’s COMEX obligation is suspicious, to say the least, when taken in conjunction with the size and timing of the ECB’s gold sale. It is circumstantial evidence that the gold used by Deutsche Bank to deliver and fulfill its COMEX obligations, came directly or indirectly, from the ECB.

I’d sure like to know what the ECB’s “alibi” is. If I were an investigator for the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), assigned to determine whether or not gold short sellers are knowingly violating the 90% cover rule, I’d be questioning the hell out of the ECB staffers, as well as employees in the futures trading division of Deutsche Bank. There is certainly enough evidence to raise “reasonable suspicion”. Reasonable suspicion is all that one needs to start a criminal investigation. It should be more than sufficient to prompt the CFTC, as well as European market regulators, to start a commercial investigation of the potential violation of regulatory rules by both the ECB and one of the world’s major banking institutions. That is, of course, if and only if, the CFTC staff really wants to regulate, rather than simply position themselves for more lucrative jobs inside the industry they are supposed to be regulating, after they leave government service.

It is quite important to determine whether or not Deutsche Bank was bailed out by the ECB because that will answer a lot of questions about allegations of naked short selling on the COMEX. If the ECB knew that its gold would be used as post ipso facto “cover” for uncovered shorting, staffers at the central bank might be co-conspirators. At any rate, if the German bank did sell short on futures contracts without having enough vaulted gold it sold a naked short. It also means that the ECB has facilitated a major rule violation in a jurisdiction (the USA) with which Europe is supposed to have extensive joint regulatory agreements, any number of which may have been violated by this action of the ECB. At the very least, naked short selling is a blatant violation of CFTC regulations, which require 90% cover of all deliverable metals contracts. If the delivered gold came directly, or indirectly, from the ECB, it means that Deutsche Bank’s gold short contracts were “naked” at the time they were entered into.

The 90% cover rule is very old rule, designed to prevent fraud on the futures markets. Its origin dates back into the 19th century. Farmers, in that simpler age, were complaining that big bank speculators were downwardly manipulating grain prices on the futures exchanges. Nowadays, the CFTC has a predilection toward categorizing banks as so-called “commercials” or “hedgers”, rather than as the speculators that they really are. Traditionally, only miners and gold dealers whose business involves a majority of PHYSICAL trade in gold should qualify as commercials. However, the CFTC has ignored this for a long time, and qualified numerous banks and other financial institutions, whose main gold business is derivatives, as “commercial” entities, immunizing them from position limits and other constraints. As a result, just like the farmers of the 19th century, today’s gold “cartel” conspiracy theorists revolve their theory around an allegation of downward manipulation, and heavy short selling concentration.

Manipulation can only take place when there is a disconnect between supply, demand, and trading activity on the futures exchanges. The 90% cover rule attempts to force a direct tie between the futures market and the availability of particular commodities, so that supply and demand become primary even on paper based futures markets, just as it is in trading the real commodity. Unfortunately, the modern CFTC has ignored or misinterpreted the purpose of the 90% cover rule for a very long time. This regulatory failure has allowed the current free-for-all “casino-like” atmosphere that now prevails at futures exchanges.

It would be helpful if some of my colleagues, within the public prosecutor and securities regulatory offices, in Europe, as well as the CFTC in America, filed complaints for discovery, to ferret out the truth. In the interest of transparent markets, the ECB should be forced to disclose who purchased the gold they sold in the morning of March 31, 2008 and why the sale was timed in a way that corresponded to the exact moment in time that Deutsche Bank had a desperate need for gold bullion.

Was it yet another bank bailout? Has another bank sucked up precious resources belonging, in this case, to the people of Europe? Gold is needed to bring confidence to the Euro currency, as often noted by Germany’s Bundesbank, which seems to be less kind to German banks than the ECB. Why should the ECB be permitted to sell gold to closely connected derivatives dealers, if the primary purpose is to save those dealers from the bad decisions they have made, and the end result is to reinforce moral hazard? Should banks like Deutsche Bank be allowed to take on more derivative risk than they can afford without involving publicly owned assets? Did Deutsche Bank issue naked short positions? Have innocent European citizens now had their currency placed at more risk, and some of their gold stolen from them, simply to enrich private hands? All of these questions are begging for answers.

European regulators are quick to condemn the Federal Reserve for its incestuous relationship to client “primary dealer” banks, special treatment of favored institutions at the expense of other non-favored institutions, propensity toward injecting dollars to artificially stimulate the stock market, seemingly endless bailouts of closely connected banks, and, now, the seemingly unlimited printing of new dollars. I’ll not attempt to excuse the Fed for its failures. Indeed, I believe that it is in the best interest of the American people to close down that malevolent institution, permanently. However, if any of the questions I have posed are answered in the positive, people might begin to understand that special favors, nepotism, corruption, and a failure to properly regulate are not confined to America. The real estate bubble, for example, was allowed to become much bigger in the U.K., Ireland, Spain, and eastern Europe, than it ever was in the USA. The collapse of real estate, in those countries, is going to be more severe, even though it is more recent in origin than the pullback in the USA. America happened to be the first nation affected, but it did not cause the world economic collapse. That was caused by the joint irresponsible policies in almost every major nation in the world.

Those who rely on the good faith of Angela Merkel, to keep the Euro inviolate, certainly have a right to get answers from the ECB and from Deutsche Bank. The answers will tell us a lot about the real proclivities of the ECB. As the U.S. dollar is progressively debased, in coming years, will the Euro be any better? Is the ECB merely a European copy of the Federal Reserve “slush fund”, utilized by well connected European banks, for the purpose of private financial gain, much as the Federal Reserve’s assets are utilized by its primary dealers? If the ECB is willing to bail out a major trading institution from the mismanagement of its derivatives operations, who could honestly claim that it would hesitate to competitively debase the Euro against the dollar? Having the answers to the questions I have posed would give everyone the knowledge needed to make important decisions. That is exactly the reason that, in all likelihood, we will never get these answers. Maybe, Europeans and others ought to be dumping Euros just as fast as they are now dumping dollars, and buy gold and silver, instead.

Aside from the regulatory issues, if we did discover that Deutsche Bank got its gold from the ECB, one glaringly strong inference arises. When a major derivatives dealer goes begging for gold, to the ECB, it is very strong circumstantial evidence that not enough physical gold is available for purchase on the OTC wholesale market. Up until now, bearish gold commentators have steadfastly denied that wholesale gold shortages exist. Instead, they have insisted that all shortages are confined to retail forms of gold. Now, when combined with the circumstantial evidence, however, common sense tells us that they are wrong.

Decision: There is sufficient evidence for this case to go to a full scale investigation. The CFTC and similar securities regulators in Europe need to properly investigate the gold conspiracy allegations. That has never been done to date. They must determine who is buying central bank gold and whether or not it is simply being sold into the open market, or channeled into the hands of favored financial institutions who then use it to cover naked short selling. The investigation must include detailed vault audits and explore all paper trails.

Disclosure: Long on gold.

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My Final Note: Did I say buy Gold? Do It Now in any form or investment, be patient and you will be REWARDED! – Good Investing – jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr

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The Party Is Over For Stocks

30 Monday Mar 2009

Posted by jschulmansr in 10 year Treasuries, 20 yr Treasuries, ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Contrarian, Copper, Credit Default, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, DGZ, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, Economic Recovery, economic trends, economy, EGO, Fed Fund Rate, Federal Deficit, federal reserve, Finance, financial, follow the news, Forex, FRG, Fundamental Analysis, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, How To Invest, How To Make Money, hyper-inflation, IAU, IMF, India, inflation, Investing, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Junior Gold Miners, Keith Fitz-Gerald, Latest News, Long Bonds, majors, Make Money Investing, Marc Faber, Market Bubble, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, mining stocks, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, oil, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, Short Bonds, silver, silver miners, Silver Price Manipulation, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, Stimulus, Stocks, SWC, TARP, Technical Analysis, The Fed, Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

≈ Comments Off on The Party Is Over For Stocks

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, Currencies, currency, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, gold miners, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Looks like the party is over! Major follow thru selling today, the Dow currently down 280 points and below 7500 at 7492. The resistance at 8000 was just to much and I think we have put in the top of this Bear Market rally/correction. As I mentioned before a lot of foolish sheeple are going to be panicking very quickly. I have been telling you to buy Gold and Precious Metals for a long time now and today’s articles will give you some more good reasons you should listen. Silver currently is flashing a Big BUY signal and when everything is said and done, I believe Silver will well outperform Gold on a percentage basis. I am using this opportunity to continue loading up on producers and I’m telling you, (CDE) Couer D’Alene Mines under a buck ($1) is looking mighty good! As always consult your financial advisor, read the prospectus, and do your due diligence before making any investments. Don’t be a “sheeple”. I also do my trend analysis thru INO.com and below is why… Good Investing! – jschulmansr – Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

 

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

As History Repeats Itself, Time to Buy Gold and Silver – Seeking Alpha

By: Peter Cooper of Arabian Money.net

 

 History does not repeat but it does rhyme, said Mark Twain. For an excellent

assessment of what a stock market crash can mean for the future we have only to turn to The Great Crash 1929 by Professor JK Galbraith.

It is all there, a complete repeat of the run up to the stock market crash of last autumn, and its consequences – thus far. There was the Florida real estate crash as a prelude to the main act, and then a 50 per cent plunge in the Dow Jones in late 1929, just like the one in 2008.

March rally

March 1930 saw a huge rally in stock prices. March 2009 has just given us the biggest rally since 1974 (a previous market crash year). But hold on a minute, what does JK Galbraith tell us happened next?

In 1930 stocks weakened a little in April and then moved sideways into June when they plunged down again. Then they continued falling month after month for the next two years.

Our governments know this, and it does help explain the rush to push money into the economy by means fair and uncertain. The aim is clearly to break the cycle and avoid the down trend.

But will it be successful? Nobody really knows. Is it worth trying? Yes, but the evidence so far is that the Great Recession is tracking a course that is out-of-control, or rather following a pattern last seen in the 1930s.

Perhaps we should be more optimistic, and think that something more like the 1970s ‘lost decade’ is upon us. 1974 was a terrible year for global stock markets and was followed by stagflation – a mixture of low growth and high inflation.

Inflation

Indeed, inflation is the only way to bail out an economy consumed by debt. In the 1930s debt deflation was allowed to take its disastrous course with public spending cuts and trade barriers making an already deteriorating cycle considerably worse.

However, anybody who has just bought into the stock market rally should really think about selling and staying out for a while. This is a time to park money in gold and silver and even exit cash, although you might care to note that cash and precious metals were the best performing asset class of the 70s, while in the 30s gold was the real star.

 

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Silver is Quietly Flashing a Buy Signal, But Buyer Beware- Seeking Alpha

By: Harold Goodman

Anyone who follows the silver market knows that the fundamentals of silver are incredibly strong, long term. Since most silver is mined as a byproduct of base metal mining, and base metal prices are currently depressed by the global recession, inventories of base metals are high, and silver supply is shrinking. Many less profitable mines are closing down. Silver recently went into backwardation, which could indicate delivery problems are imminent in the physical silver market.

The US government currently holds no silver bullion at all, down from five billion ounces immediately after WWII. Above ground silver supplies are currently estimated to be one billion ounces, compared to five billion ounces of gold. This includes silver in tableware, jewelry, and other sources that will never be available on the open market.

For the purposes of this analysis, I will use SLV, the silver ETF, because it is convenient and easy to chart, but keep in mind, this is paper silver, not bullion, and its investment characteristics are completely different. It is supposed to be backed by silver bullion, but if you read the fine print, it may also hold futures, cash, and is allocated to custodians and sub-custodians which cannot be audited. It is designed to track the spot price of silver, but when the spot price of silver falls significantly below the mean, you will find that physical silver dealers will increase their premium over spot rather than drop the price. Holders of SLV cannot demand delivery of the underlying physical silver bullion bars.

On August 25th, 2008 the 50 day moving average of SLV crossed and fell below the 200 day moving average. This is know by technical analysts as the “death cross” and signifies a coming fall in price. SLV closed that day at $13.33


On October 27th, the price of SLV closed at $8.85 during the panic selling of autumn 2008, a 33.6% drop in two months.

Last Friday, March 27th, 2009, for the first time since August 25th, the 50 day moving average of SLV crossed back above the 200 day MA, which could signal a coming runup in price. SLV closed at $13.15


I don’t know what term the technical analysts use for that, so I will call it the “life cross” until someone tells me the correct term.

If SLV’s 50 day MA stays above the 200 day MA, rather than bouncing off it, this is an extremely bullish sign for SLV, and astute investors should be keeping a close eye on it for the next week. But here’s the rub.

Silver is the most highly manipulated market in existence, bar none, and the price of silver has been suppressed for many years. Gold is second to silver. The reason that silver is first apparently is that it is a much smaller market than gold, and can be manipulated using a much smaller number of silver futures contracts. Gold prices can be suppressed both by shorting gold futures, and by actual bullion sales by central banks, but these sales are becoming fewer and smaller as central bank gold reserves are reportedly running low, and even those nations with ample supplies of bullion won’t be willing to part with it at the suppressed price, now that governments worldwide are printing money like it’s going out of style.

The best body of work on silver manipulation by far is the writings of Ted Butler, available here.

Check out his articles on February 8, 2009 and March 16, 2009.

Short term traders like to follow the 12 day EMA and 26 day EMA.

On July 29th, 2008 the 12 day EMA of SLV crossed below the 26 day EMA, signaling a coming drop in price. SLV closed that day at $17.19 Three months later, SLV hit its bottom of $8.85 on October 27th , a drop of 48.4% in three months.

On December 12th, 2008 the 12 day EMA of SLV crossed back above the 26 day EMA, signaling a coming runup in price, and has been above it ever since. SLV closed that day at $10.14

On February 23rd, 2009 SLV peaked out at $14.34, an increase of 41.4% in 2 ½ months.

On March 17th, 2009 the 12 day EMA of SLV bounced off the 26 day EMA, and has remained above it ever since, a bullish sign. SLV closed that day at $12.60, and its most recent close on March 27th was $13.15

If the 12 day EMA can stay above the 26 day EMA, look out above!

The following chart shows the long and short positions of various commodities on the Comex as reported by the CFTC for the week of March 16, 2009. Thanks to Mark J Lundeen for the chart. It shows that the net long/short position in silver is 100% short, compared to gold at 63%. I would consider this as prima facie evidence that the CFTC is not doing their job in preventing manipulation of the commercial silver market.

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Concentrated Shorts Proven To Supress Gold and Silver – GATA

Source: GATA.org – Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

GATA Board of Directors member Adrian Douglas, editor of the Market Force Analysis letter (http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/), has combined data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to show that the suppression of the prices of gold and silver in the last several years correlates exactly with the growing concentration of the short positions held by two U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase and HSBC.

Short of the official admissions of the gold price suppression scheme collected and published by GATA over the years, Douglas’ report is probably the best proof yet, and certainly the most detailed. Douglas’ report is titled “Pirates of the COMEX” and you can find it in PDF format at GATA’s Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/PIRATES-OF-THE-COMEX.pdf

GATA’s supporters may be wearying of our many similar requests, but only persistence pays off, so we ask you to print copies of Douglas’ report and send them — by regular mail, not e-mail, which is ignored — to your U.S. senators and representatives with a covering letter requesting an explanation as to why nothing is being done to stop this market manipulation. For our friends outside the United States, please send copies with similar letters to your own national legislators.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and

you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

 

 

=========================================================My note: As my friend Trader Dan says-

“Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts.” –Trader Dan Norcini

I think it’s time for a “short squeeze” and take back some of the money the “pirates” have stolen

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That’s it for now-Have a Great Monday!- Good Investing- jschulmansr

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