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Maybe…. Depending on who you are talking to. Today’s rally took me a little bit by surprise, thanks to Japan. The market totally shrugged off Moody’s potential downgrade of Irish Banks and Ireland.
The recently released report of the causes of the “Flash Crash” showed that derivatives actually was one of the major causes of the crash. Well guess what? Right before the collapse of Lehman, and the ensuing crash and crisis; banks were holding all time record levels of derivatives. Currently once again, banks are holding all time record high levels of derivatives!
So today’s rally can be totally attributed to Japan’s central bank. The Japanese Central Bank while slashing interest rates to basically 0%, also announced that they would be buying Japanese assets (Bonds, Reits, Mortgages, Equities), thereby fueling speculation that the Fed would do the same thru QE2 here in the United States.
However, I think it’s about time for a correction in the GLD, SLV, FXE, SPY, UUP.
Looking at the charts this has all of the appearance of an exhaustion gap. Not that I don’t think that we have a real shot a $1500 Spot Gold by the end of this year.
So even though I was stopped out of my GLD puts this morning I am seriously thinking about jumping back in and buying more GLD and SLV puts. I will let you know on stock talks (Seeking Alpha), when I do.
That being said, I don’t think the correction for GLD and SLV will be more than 5-7% before resuming their march to $1500 (Gold) and $25 (Silver). Another note: I expect Silver to perform even better than Gold. The gold/silver ratio is approximately 60/1, if we see a return to what used to be the norm of 30/1 gold/silver ratio; then Silver could potentially run as high as $35-$50/oz.
Finally, as they do another quantitative easing (QE2) here in the US (currently not official QE), this continues to put pressure on Europe and Japan to devalue their currencies and keep the printing presses running. Long term this is going to create a very hyper inflationary climate long term. So being the Gold and Precious Metals Perma Bull that I am, I think that you should be buying and stockpiling (bullion, rounds, coins; as much as you can get; to lock in the value of your money now. Events are truly starting to line up and set the stage for a potential worldwide collapse and depression.
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– Trend Analysis Revealed –
Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets.
Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.
Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:
– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?
Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.
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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr
As you can see, from mid-1971 to December 1974, gold rose 471%. It
then fell 50%, from December ’74 to August ’76. After that, it began
its next leg up, exploding 750% higher from August ’76 to January
1980. Now, in its current bull market (2001 to March 2008), gold
rose over 300% from $250 to a little over $1,000. And just like in
the mid-70s, it began showing signs of weakness after its first big
rally up to $1,014 in March ’08. At one point, it even fell to $700, a 30% retraction.
Granted, it wasn’t a full 50% retraction like the one that occurred
from 1974-76. But we are experiencing a financial crisis. And gold
is the most common catastrophe insurance.
If we were to go by the historic pattern of the gold market in the
‘70s, gold should experience upwards resistance for 19 months after
its first peak today. Gold’s recent peak was $1,014 in March ’08
(roughly 17 months ago). If this bull market parallels the last one,
then gold should renew its upward momentum in a very serious way
starting in October 2009. And this next leg up should be a major
one (the biggest gains came during the second rally in gold’s bull
market in the ‘70s).
The chart certainly forecasts a major move.
As you can see, gold has formed a long-term inverse head and
shoulders formation (two smaller collapses book-ending a major
collapse). Typically a head and shoulders predicts a massive
collapse. However, when the head and shoulders is inverse, as is
the case for gold today, this typically predicts a MAJOR leg up.
Indeed, any move above the “neckline” of 1,000 would forecast a
MAJOR move up to $1,300 or so. Going by history, this is precisely
the move we should expect: remember based on historical trends
(the gold bull market of the ‘70s) gold should begin its second
and largest leg up in September or October 2009.
Watch the gold chart closely over the next month or so. If gold
makes a move above $980 perhaps add to your current positions.
If it clears $1,000, hold on tight, cause the next leg up in this
secular bull market has begun.
Good Investing!
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My Note: After watching stocks (DJI) this afternoon and the strange
price behavior before the close, I felt I would add this article too!
-jschulmansr
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Anytime stocks explode higher on next to no volume and crap
fundamentals you run the risk of a real collapse. I am officially
going on record now and stating that IF the S&P 500 hits 1,000, we
will see a full-blown Crash like last year.
3) This Latest Market Rally is a Short-Squeeze and Nothing More
To date, the stock market is up 48% since its March lows. This is
truly incredible when you consider the underlying economic picture:
normally when the market rallies 40%+ from a bear market low, the
economy is already nine months into recovery mode. Indeed, assuming
the market is trading based on earnings, the S&P 500 is currently
discounting earnings growth of 40-50% for 2010. The odds of that
happening are about one in one million.
A closer examination of this rally reveals the degree to which
“junk” has triumphed over value. Since July 10th:
Dare Something Worthy Today Too! 
