Ahh!… Euphoria – The Sweet Smell of Recovery???

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Ahh the sweet smell of recovery! It’s “official Bernanke said so and so did MSNBC. I don’t think we are anywhere close to being out of the woods yet. To many shoes still dropping. Mortgage Resets, Commercial Real Estate, the number of banks failing each month, and the U.S. Dollar; just to name a few. Oops, can’t forget Inflation, oops hyper-inflation. Hey, we haven’t even gotten to the world political climate; i.e. Iran, N. Korea, Israel, and Afghanistan; to name a few more. Where are the contrarians? What happened to astute investing? When is Geitner going to turn off the printing press? When is China going to fire back in the trade war and just say no to one of the next treasury auctions? If that happened for 1-2 auctions how do you think the market will react? Personally, I think we are dead in the eye of the hurricane of economic malestrom. I remember reading early this year this is the exact blueprint of the Bilderberger Plan, allow the stock market to get to pre-crash levels, suck in all the investors back into the market and then pull the plug. I am not wearing a tin foil hat either… research this out for yourself (Google Bilderberger’s and another good source is Alex Jones Infowar site.) I also find it very interesting no news from the latest G-20 meeting. Plus the BRIC countries are very silent, can you imagine if China convinced those countries to side with them in a trade war? Don’t get me wrong I want to be out of the recession too. However, when everyone is saying Buy, it is usually the time to Sell. I think the DJI still has more room 9750 is the first major resistance, next 9850, and then no man’s land at 10,000 and above. I don’t think we will quite get there (DJI 10,000), but since we are in the head building phase of the head and shoulders formation on the charts it could conceivably happen. So since there are some good stocks still out there, due due diligence, keep your stops tight within 10-18%. I know I would rather take 60-80% off the table in profits than ride the elevator back down.

Gold for the 3rd day has held above $1000, it doesn’t surprise me. Okay we now have support at $998-$1000 for gold. The first resistance is te $1011 double top, when that falls, next stop $1020, and then the assault on the all time high of $1033. Silver already is at it’s high for the year and the sky is the limit. First of all with the euphoria over the “recession is over gang” will mean a perceived and partially real rnewed industrial demand for both Silver and Copper too.. However, when Gold takes out it’s all time high, I think there will be a massive influx of money into Silver the “Poor Man’s Gold”. Silver at $25oz before the end of the year and Gold at $1250- $1325.  I have been accumulating both and also own the core major Silver and Gold producers. I have have mid-tier and junior producers and a few good ‘explorer’s too! This is not to “toot my horn”, but to implore you to join me. Get in now, and hang on for the ride of your life! Great Investing! – jschulmansr

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• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
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• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

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Wednesday Outlook: No Speed Bumps in Sight? – Seeking Alpha

By: David Fry of ETF Digest

September 15, 2009

NO SPEED BUMPS IN SIGHT?

This rally has only modest volume (although more today) and positive major news remains thin but always “better than expected” (Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Survey). But, hey, Bernanke postulates that the recession is “likely over.” Now, who the hell knew that?! Geithner was more equivocal in his comments saying a “true recovery still has a ways to go.” Well, okay, let’s just say things are better than before.

Volume increased on an up day for a change but some of this is misleading given one glance at the late day trading on the 5 minute SPY chart. Breadth however was positive but not overwhelmingly so.

click to enlarge

“Today is the last trading day for VIX SEPT options, with the cash settlement price disseminated tomorrow morning off the CBOE SPX option volatility calculation. The open interest in the SEPT 25 puts is a staggering 188k, watch for the underlying to lift higher and migrate to this strike during the course of the trading session. Dealers are long this strike due to a series of put butterflies (SEPT 22.5,25,27.5) purchased by customers the past 10 days.” This per our friend, Scott Larison, Managing Director, Options Sales and Strategy, Forefront Advisory in New York.

Retail Sales were “better than expected” causing true believers in Chucky, the Consumer you can’t kill, to go on another shopping spree. You were out there shopping right?

We have quad-witching ahead and some of today’s action is no doubt linked to getting out of the way and manipulation with options and futures. This evening expiring September S&P futures are down a lot with rollover to December no doubt occurring. These are the types of the things that HAL 9000s live on.

There’s plenty of momentum for bulls and there are times this does seem unstoppable. Funny thing, sometimes this is just when things get upended.

One thing markets like is Washington gridlock and the most overexposed president in history is helping with it. He might do a little better if he gave us and his teleprompter a break. That’s just my opinion.

Let’s see what happens.

You can follow ETF Digest on twitter here.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in XLB, XLI, IYR, IEF, TLT, UDN, GLD, DBC, XLE, EWJ, EWZ, EWC and RSX.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

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– Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox. Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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It’s Jiffy Pop Time! Gold and Stock Markets Weekly Wrap Up

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, Dennis Gartman, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, EGO, Federal Deficit, Forex, FRG, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, platinum miners, power, prices, producers, production, Sean Rakhimov, silver miners, SLW, small caps, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

It’s Jiffy Pop Time and the Gold market is just starting to pop, pop, pop. The heat is being generated by the whirring printing presses at the U.S. Treasury; which are running full steam ahead, unabated, and with no prospect of turning them off. This forms the stove with Inflation, (soon to be Hyper-Inflation) are the burners, blazing red hot. Extra energy is coming from the falling dollar and rising prices/Inflation regardless of what the manipulated Government reports may say. True Inflation right now is approximately 18%+. The tin foil on the Jiffy Pop is starting to rise and Gold has closed today at an 18 month high. We are moving out of the deflation stage and into the inflation stage, if Bernanke is truly dedicated to saving the U.S. economy the he need to tell Geitner to turn off the presses now. We have already doubled, no almost tripled the amount of dollars in circulation now; just in the last 8 months.

The popping is growing louder and mmm- the smell of fresh popped Jiffy Pop Popcorn. The heat is high and I hope you are on the right side of the markets- especially Gold and Precious Metals and in Stocks. For Gold in the coming week I fully expect we will take out the $1033 high. I would not be upset if we built a base down here around $1000 –  $1015 during the next few days and closing out next week at $1025 – $1040. This thrust will take us up to $1075- $1100 Then a retracement to back to $1025-$1033 before taking out $1100; and then getting to $1250 – $1300 by the end of the year. We will see a futile attempt to prop up the U.S. Dollar but there is nothing they can do short of raising Interest rates which will sink the fledgling recovery. Oil wil come back and take out first $75 a barrel and then $100 a barrel by the end of the year.

On stocks, I made a mistake on the wave/formation pattern, I still feel we are in the process of creating a head and shoulders top, the exception is that we are still forming the head. I think we will top out the head at DJI 9750- 9800. From there it will be a vicious drop off the cliff preceded by a short right shoulder buildup. I think the big crash is going to occur very soon in the next few weeks. Keep your stops very tight and get ready to play the downside.

I initiated two positions Thurs late afternoon, I bought (DGP) at 2245 and I sold (DGZ) at $22.60. I am getting ready to buy Dec call options for (GLD) and (RGLD) on Monday. You can follow my trades on twitter right after I initiate them.

Have a Great Investing Day! –

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Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

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Four Keys To Gold’s Next Move – Seeking Alpha

By Jeffrey Nichols of Nichols On Gold

Gold may have moved too high too soon . . . but whether or not the metal manages to recoup and hold onto recent gains near or above the $1000 an ounce level in the days immediately ahead . . . we are nevertheless looking for new highs (above $1032) in the closing months of the year with gold possibly at $1200 or $1300 before the New Year.

Key One: India

I’ve just returned from India, one of the most crucial markets for gold with a long history and big appetite for the yellow metal. What happens next for gold may depend most on the strength — or weakness — of Indian buying. And, Indian buying is both price sensitive and in sync with various holidays, festivals, and the wedding seasons.

With current rupee-denominated prices near historic highs, many are waiting either for a correction or evidence of staying power before returning to the market for new purchases. And while festival and wedding-related buying is expected later this month, the two-week period up to September 19th is considered inauspicious for gold purchases and many potential buyers will wait until later in the month.

If gold can remain near $1000 for the next week or two, giving Indians a sense of confidence that the price is not about to retreat, we can imagine stronger buying interest sufficient to get the price moving toward its previous historic peak and beyond into uncharted territory.

Key Two: China

Official — but unreported — buying on behalf of the central bank and possibly the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corporation, is being joined by growing private-sector demand for both investment bars and jewelry.

Press reports suggest that the Chinese government has adopted a new — more positive — attitude toward private-sector buying of both gold and silver. With China now the number one gold-mining country, it is in their interest to see a higher gold price as long as demand can be satisfied by domestic mine production and scrap reflows. Additionally, it has been suggested that the new pro-gold policy is intended to channel speculative funds away from real estate and equity investments.

The recently announced agreement for the People’s Bank of China to purchase from the International Monetary Fund about $50 billion in SDR-denominated, IMF-issued interest-bearing securities has also contributed to the latest round of dollar selling . . . and, to the extent that dollar weakness is a plus for gold, this has also supported the early September gold rally.

Key Three: Barrick

Barrick Gold’s (ABX) smart move to buy back its gold hedge position provided a temporary booster shot that helped propel the yellow metal through the $1000 an ounce barrier.

If I remember correctly, as of midyear, Barrick — the world’s largest gold-mine producer — had about 168 tons of gold outstanding on its hedge book . . . and would have to buy back this quantity to regain full exposure to future gold-price moves.

Anticipating an announcement effect, Barrick most likely accelerated its gold repurchase program in the days leading up to the September 7th announcement and probably paused to let the market recover from the news and prices to back off a bit before it resumes its repurchase program. With another tranche still to be repurchased in the months ahead, I expect Barrick to buy into price weakness, helping to underpin the price at moments of weakness.

Key Four: Monetary Factors

Of course, clients and readers of NicholsOnGold know that we think U.S. monetary policy and money supply growth are the primary determinants of U.S. price inflation, U.S. dollar performance, and the future price of gold. Last weekend’s communique from the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors was a reminder that monetary stimulus is likely to stay for some time. This — along with last week’s report from the United Nations critical of the U.S. dollar’s roll as a global reserve asset — has pushed the dollar lower in foreign-exchange markets to the benefit of gold.

If you haven’t already read the full text of my speech to the 6th Annual India International Gold Convention in Goa, India last week, I suggest you take a look for more about gold’s supply/demand situation, important changes in central bank gold policies, and implications of U.S. monetary policy.

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How to Trade Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Gold ETF Funds – Seeking Alpha

By: Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy

How to trade hot commodities like natural gas, oil and gold? We should see big moves in the coming weeks as gas bottoms, and oil and gold breakout or breakdown. A lot of money is going to be exchanging hands quickly and the key is to be on the receiving end of things. Below are some charts showing where these commodities are trading.

How to Trade Gold – Weekly Chart

How I trade gold is relatively straight forward. I use a simple trading model which allows me to identify the down side risk for a potential gold trade. I also use the same model for trading oil, gas and silver.

Beyond finding good entry points, it is crucial to know when to take some profits off the table. The weekly gold chart clearly shows gold trading at a resistance level which means there are going to be more sellers than buyers, hence the reason it is called resistance.

To trade gold I enter with my low risk entry points and sell half my position once I reach a resistance level. Thursday for example gold moved up into this long term resistance level and then started to head south. We took some profits off the table before gold dipped in the late afternoon for a healthy gain. Taking profits is a must or you’ll simply hold onto winning positions until they eventually turn into a loser.

How to Trade Crude Oil – Weekly Chart

Trading crude oil is exciting because it moves much faster than gold. How to trade crude oil with low risk can be done by using my simple trading model which is a combination of indicators like momentum, support & resistance, volume, price patterns and media coverage. All these things combined allow for highly accurate trades with minimal down side risk.

Crude oil looks ready to make a big move. The odds are pointing to higher prices because oil has a multi month bullish price action and the falling US dollar helps increase the price of oil. I can see oil breakout and rally into the $95 per barrel level if things go that way in the coming weeks.

How to Trade Oil (USO Fund) – Weekly Chart

USO tracks similarly to the price of crude oil and it provides some great trades for both swing traders and day traders. I focus on trades that bounce off support with low downside risks, which occur on both the daily and weekly charts.

How to Trade Natural Gas – Weekly Chart

Natural gas is looking ready to bottom here. If you go back to the early 90’s the $2-3 range is a major support level. While I don’t generally try to pick bottoms, there are some signature price patterns and volume patterns that have proven to be very profitable for catching sharp bounces.

How to Trade Natural Gas – Daily Chart

The daily chart shows a perfect waterfall sell off with the price of natural gas dropping to a long term support level. This pattern combination shows panic selling which indicates a short term bottom is close.

The extreme panic selling and sharp decline in price, removes much of the down side risk. Scaling into a position over a few days, if the price continues to move lower, is important for this strategy to work its magic.

The black horizontal lines show my resistance levels for taking profits. If the price were to drop below $10 then I would exit the second half of the position to lock in the rest of the profit.

How to Trade Commodities Conclusion:

Trading commodities is very simple with all the ETFs and funds available. The energy funds like oil and gas have some issues with following the prices of their underlying commodity but I do not find it a problem with my style of trading.

I would really like to know the entire story about what is going on with the oil and nat gas funds which have crazy contango issues. Why do other commodity funds like GLD (gold bullion) and SLV (silver bullion) not have these issues? Why can’t they make a fund which follows oil and gas properly? All I know is that there are a lot of dishonest people in the financial industry taking honest hard working peoples’ money.

Visit The Gold and Oil Guy

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(9-11 Postscript): I salute the fallen hero’s of 9-11 – we will not forget you! Our prayers are still with the families of the fallen and the survivors. We will never forget…

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I will be starting regular daily posts next week especially since the markets are heating up- Like I said it’s “Jiffy Pop” time! – Have a great weekend-jschulmansr

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Black September is Here Again!

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Well the dog days of summer are over and September is blowing in. As the brilliant colors of autumn are starting to bloom with the leaves turning orange, gold and crimson; the leaves are starting to drop. That’s not all that is starting to fall, stocks are beginning their seasonal drop. If you haven’t taken profits please do so. We will see one more push up in stocks as they form the right shoulder of the head and shoulders formation on the chart. We have just finished the head with the right shoulder to follow (DJIA). 9200 (DJIA) is the first support, next roughly 9125-9080. A decisive break below the 50 day moving average or 9000 will be absolute confirmation of the new bear market downtrend. Commercial real estate is one of the next factors (shoe) about to drop. In addition the tax break for buying a new home is about to end, and the auto industry will not have cash for clunkers to fall back on. Late Breaking China has said NO to Credit derivatives and any losses from them. This is definitely not good for the US markets. So get rid of your more speculative stocks move to good yielding stocks in industries that people have to buy the products in good times or bad times. On the rest move your stops very close w/in 10% trailing. Maybe also look at selling covered calls or puts to lock in profits and earn a little income on the side.

Gold and Precious metals are coiled up ready to spring dramatically to the upside. Countdown is almost over, ignition commencing. We have a nice little triangle in Gold. Personally, I feel we will see the breakout to the upside after a little false breakout to the downside. In other words I fell it will go down like this, first we will see Gold test the $930 level as the Big 3 shorts make one more desperate effort to save themselves. However I feel that Gold will hold and climb back to $950 and then break above $965. When that happens the next resistance will be $980, then $1000, and then a 2nd test for the all time high at $1032. I think it will successfully break that level and hit at least $1250 before the end of the year with a potential to actually hit $1325. Keep accumulating companies with a low cost of production, junior and mid tier producers with current or about to start production. There are still many bargains which I will start featuring here on the blog.

I apologize for the recent lack of posts over the past month. Since I lost my day job, I decided to go back to school again so to speak by taking a few intensive trading and technical analysis courses to refresh up again. Since my new job will be trading the markets, I will be sharing my picks and option trades, forex trades, along with choice stock picks. Wishing all of us Great Investing! -jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

==============================================

John Licata Still Eyeing $1200 Gold in 2009 – GoldSeek.com

Bullish on gold since it carried a $400-per-ounce price tag, Blue Phoenix Chief Investment Strategist John Licata expects the king of metals to ring in the New Year with a $1,200-per-ounce crown. As he told The Gold Report in April, he still considers gold one of the best asset plays in the world. With recovery on the horizon, he’s also high on silver—in part because a pickup in manufacturing will drive up demand. While he says it’s premature to claim economic recovery, he isn’t looking to copper to serve as the traditional harbinger of a return from recession this time. His rationale? Good economic news—while too inconsistent to make recovery imminent—is already baked in to copper’s climb already this year.

The Gold Report: You weren’t too bullish on seeing a recovery in 2009 when we caught up with you in April. We’ve seen some good Q2 reporting from a variety of companies and some encouraging economic data. The government is starting to claim we’re in recovery. What’s your take on this?

John Licata: I do think we’ve seen some better domestic economic data, but it’s premature to think we’re totally out of the woods. In terms of corporate earnings, a lot of company profits might have surprised to the upside, but they’re still down 50% to 70% from quarters before or the prior year.

Many companies have been trying to compare Q1 and Q2. You’re still not seeing dramatic differences to the upside. Quite frankly, some companies are still living within cash flow and I think that’s one of the reasons why we could have a problem with supply and demand imbalances as we come to the end of 2009 and enter 2010.

Unemployment is likely to keep rising. Although the last numbers were much better than anticipated, I don’t think we’ve seen the green light that will cause people to start hiring again. We could hit 10% unemployment by the end of the year, and that’s going to be a precursor to some weaker retail heading into the holiday season. Net-net, you probably could put the word ‘inconsistent’ toward most of the economic data coming out of the U.S.

The industrial numbers that came out of China a couple of weeks ago [August 10] were actually below expectations as well. While everyone wants to be bullish and the data is somewhat better than many expected, it’s still not great. So I think to claim victory right now is definitely premature.

TGR: You mentioned a supply-demand imbalance. What do you see on that front?

JL: Companies are not putting money back into infrastructure. For that reason, once demand actually starts to increase, supply levels will be shockingly different from what people might expect.

TGR: Are you differentiating between the BRIC countries and North America in that regard?

JL: I’m not just looking at the BRIC countries as the barometer for the economic pulse. I don’t even think China is the saving grace for commodities. But I do think what is going to be indicative for a recovery is to see demand pick up, to start seeing jobs pick up again, more consistently; not just one month out of six. We need to see consistent job growth.

TGR: When do you think demand might pick up?

JL: Q3, perhaps Q4, is when we probably can start seeing demand start picking up and I think that’s when we’re going to start to see overall a global economic recovery. I’m skeptical that it can happen before Q4.

TGR: Is that worldwide demand pickup you’re anticipating?

JL: I’m referring to North America.

TGR: Can demand pick up before unemployment abates?

JL: It can happen before, but I think demand and employment will increase in tandem.

TGR: In our previous conversation, you compared the investment opportunities in oil, natural gas and gold to one another. At this point, which of these three sectors do you think offer the greatest return?

JL: Because of the upside that I think could happen over the next 12 months, I would rate natural gas first, gold second and oil third. For right now, I’m conservatively optimistic on oil. Although short term we might have a pullback, I’m still bullish on the price of oil. I think oil will trade north of $80 by year end, and I think we’ll again see triple-digit oil within the next two years. A lot of major wells in the world are not as productive as they once were and when it comes to demand increasing because the overall economic health around the world is picking up, we could be in trouble in terms of supplies. That relates to the metals as well as energy.

TGR: Speaking of metals, your outlook for gold?

JL: I continue to maintain that we could see $1,200 gold prices by year-end. I think gold is very much on the way to hitting that pretty aggressive price target. The miners themselves seem pretty confident on the upside for gold.

TGR: In April, you described gold as one of the best asset plays in the world and your recommendation to investors was to focus initially on physical gold. Have you changed that viewpoint?

JL: No. I’ve been bullish on gold since it was below $400. But now I am starting to see some opportunities in the equity side of the gold market that are becoming very appealing and I didn’t see that when we last spoke.

TGR: Are you still bullish on platinum and palladium, too?

JL: I am still enthusiastic, but not as bullish on either of them just because we have seen a bit of a run since April. I’d rather be in silver. I think silver gets forgotten when we start talking about precious metals. As opposed to platinum or palladium, I would rather be in the silver space.

TGR: Is there anything in particular in silver that you’re finding appealing?

JL: I just think if we’re talking about an economic recovery in the back half of this year into 2010 and silver is mostly used for industrial purposes, I honestly think that silver prices are just forgotten. When people start talking about the inflation hedge, they jump into gold. If they start talking about the economy improving, they jump into copper. They tend to forget that silver is actually used for much manufacturing. So I think that is the forgotten metal and I do think that silver prices can move a lot higher, especially as gold prices march through $1,000.

TGR: As you say, people look to copper as the leading metal to point to in terms of a recovery. What’s your feeling about copper?

JL: You hit the nail on the head. Everyone starts to talk about copper, but nothing has jumped out at me to say that copper prices have much more upside. Copper prices are up nearly 100% year-to-date, so I think a lot of the recovery that many people are talking about has been priced in already.

The Baltic Dry Index, an index that just had the biggest monthly drop since October (down 28% in August), has been down because people fear that China might cut back on buying iron ore and coal. If that happens, copper prices won’t be immune. Copper supplies have been tight for the last couple of quarters. If anything, we’re trading about 35 cents or 40 cents above the recent 50-day moving average. I think copper is over-extended right now.

TGR: Any last comments before we meet again?

JL: Only that while it’s a difficult marketplace and I do expect tight markets around the world to continue, some of the plays we’ve talked about have the makings of a pretty successful portfolio.

After studying economics and graduating from Saint Peter’s College in New Jersey (where he received the Wall Street Journal Award for economic excellence), John J. Licata set his sights on Wall Street. During his career, John has held both trading and research positions on the NYMEX, Dow Jones, Smith Barney and Brokerage America. Early in 2006, he founded Blue Phoenix, Inc., an independent energy/metals research and consulting firm based in New York City. John, the company’s Chief Investment Strategist, has appeared regularly in the media (CNBC, Bloomberg TV/Radio, Business News Network (BNN), Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Sun, Los Angeles Times, etc.) over the years for his insights/forecasts in the commodity spectrum.

Streetwise – The Gold Report is Copyright © 2009 by Streetwise Inc. All rights are reserved. Streetwise Inc. hereby grants an unrestricted license to use or disseminate this copyrighted material (i) only in whole (and always including this disclaimer), but (ii) never in part.

================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Is Gold getting Ready to Breakout?

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The simple answer is yes. The key question is… are we going to test $1000 or back below $900? If you look at the daily charts Gold has been inching slowly upwards, the first resistance in $965, then a successful close above $980-$983, will confirm the upside new assault on $1000. I am still sticking to my prediction of Gold at $1250 by the end of the year.

The charts are almost indentical to 2007 before the big breakout, check it out for yourself. A major factor which few are talking about is any breakout above $1000 will cause a massive short squeeze or an even more massive loss for the Big 3 (banks) who are heavily short. Posistions starting as low as $750 -$800. Due to this there exists an even larger potential for Gold to actually go as high as $1500 by year end.

Silver on the other side is going to go to $25 by year end and an even bigger short squeeze potential exists in that market. By the way look for Crude oil to be at or above $100 barrel. The dollar is doomed either way and inflation will have accelerated to the 12%-15% range at about the same time.

I’ll update the stock markets tomorrow and even though I think we still a tiny bit of room to the upside as we finish “the head” of the head and shoulders pattern that has been forming. Keep your stop loss orders tight and as always, Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Please Follow me on Twitter & FaceBook at: 
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==============================================================

BONUS! The most accurate predictor of inflation (video)

 ==============================================================

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Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

 ==============================================================
Why Gold ETFs Are All About Timing --- Seeking Alpha

By: Tom Lydon of ETF Trends


Investor sentiments change with the seasons and summer proved to be


a lackluster season for gold. Nevertheless, a new season may provide

gold and related ETFs with the opportunity to shine.

A recent dip in gold prices renewed fund manager interest in gold,


citing the pullback as a buying opportunity, remarks Dan Well for


MoneyNews.
 
Gold abated from its recent high of $992.10 an ounce on June 3, but


many investors still believe inflation will kick in sooner or later.

Some portfolio managers believe gold may even touch $1,300 as soon


as spring. Gold is a popular hedge in inflationary times.
 
In the short term, seasonal changes may be a significant factor in


gold’s decline. Historically, gold prices tend to dip during summer


because the period lacks big gift-giving holidays. But purchases of


gold-related products resume in the fall when the Indian wedding


season, Ramadan, Christmas, and the Chinese New Year kick in.
 
Many people don’t know how many ounces a bar of gold actually


contains, comments Jim Wang for Bargaineering. In Wang’s search for


the answer, he discovered that there’s really no standard when


referring to “gold bars.” There is, however, the “400 ounce London


Good Delivery.” At $946 an ounce, the price as of Aug. 11, one


hefty stick of gold comes to $378,704. Yowza.
 

	
iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU): up 7.3% year-to-date



	
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): up 7.4% year-to-date

=====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

The Countdown Has Begun!

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banking crisis banks bear market bull central deflation depression economic trends economy financial futures gold inflation crash Markets precious metals price protection recession safety silver plati, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

The timer is ticking and drawing ever closer. The Markets are behaving just like I felt they would be. The (DJI) is making it’s final push while the broader market is starting to lag. We are almost at the top of the head in the head and shoulders pattern for the (DJI). Will it break 10,000? Personally I do not think so. The market rallied today on “funny” unemployment figures released by the government this morning. What happened to the 750,000 unemployed workers which have seemingly vanished? They certainly were not hired on new jobs! Where did they go? Add them back, you now have a more real picture of unemployment. Please keep your stop losses tight and be prepared to be stopped out.

Gold and Precious Metals… Like I said the timer is drawing down to zero. Keep accumulating and add on to your (DGP) positions too. Buy producers and those near production with proven reserves. I still see $1250 by year end for Gold, $25 for Silver and /or better! Buy now! Your Children and Grandchildren will Thank You!   Another stock I like is Apollo Gold (AGT), they recently have started production and are ramping up for more. At .45 cents a share you can get a nice position for a small investment. Another “Buy and Forget”. By the way I still also feel Silver will outperform Gold on a percentage basis (see article below).

Have a Great Weekend, I will be resuming regular daily posts as soon as I have finished setting up a couple of new web sites. My other vocation, I am also an Internet Marketer. Remember, set up as many multiple income streams as you can. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

Please Follow me on Twitter & FaceBook at: 
http://twitter.com/jschulmansr - Overall Markets and Trading Blog
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FaceBook http://facebook.com/jschulmansr 
Thanks Again!
Jeff aka jschulmansr

================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

================================================

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

==========================================

Insiders are Selling – MarketWatch

By: Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders have recently been selling their companies’ shares at a greater pace than at any time since the top of the bull market in the fall of 2007.

Does that mean you should immediately start lightening your equity exposure?

It depends on whom you ask.

But, first, the data.

Corporate insiders are a company’s officers, directors and largest shareholders. They are required to report to the SEC whenever they buy or sell shares of their companies, and various research firms collect and analyze those transactions.

One is the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research. In their latest issue, received Monday afternoon, Vickers reported that the ratio of insider selling to insider buying last week was 4.16-to-1, the highest the ratio has been since October 2007.

I don’t need to remind you that the 2002-2007 bull market topped out that month.

To be sure, the weekly insider data can be volatile, especially during periods like the summer, in which the overall volume of insider transactions can be quite light. That is one of the reasons why Vickers also calculates an eight-week average of the insider sell-to-buy ratio, and it currently stands at 2.69-to-1. That’s the highest that this eight-week ratio has been since November 2007.

To put the insiders’ recent selling into context, consider that in late April, the last time I devoted a column to the behavior of insiders (and when the rally that began on March 9 was still only six weeks old), the comparable eight-week sell-to-buy ratio was just 0.72-to-1. ( Read my April 27 column.)

Why, given this, shouldn’t we be running, not walking, to the exits?

May be you should, of course.

But, in deciding whether to do so, there are several other factors to consider.

The first reason to be at least a little bit skeptical of insiders’ current pessimism is that they, on balance, failed to anticipate the 2007-2009 bear market. On the contrary, as I reported on numerous occasions during that bear market, they were largely bullish throughout. The average recommended equity exposure of Vickers’ two model portfolios, for example, was around 90% from late 2007 through the early part of this year.

What makes insiders more worth listening to now than then?

It’s a fair enough question, of course. What those who are inclined to follow the insiders can say by way of response is that insiders, over the years, have been more right than wrong — even though by no means infallible.

Another reason not to immediately go to cash in response to insiders’ increased recent predisposition to sell their companies’ stock: They are often early.

In fact, Investors Intelligence, a newsletter edited by John Gray and Michael Burke, bases one of its market timing indicators on how the insiders were behaving 12 months previously.

A similar point was made earlier this week by Jonathan Moreland, editor of the Insider Insights newsletter. While acknowledging that recent insider behavior “seems totally inconsistent with this rally continuing unabated,” Moreland went on to argue that “it may take weeks or even months for insiders to be proven right. Money can be made in the meantime.”

The bottom line? Insiders are not always right. And even when they are right, they often are early.

Even so, it’s difficult to sugar-coat the recent increase in the pace of their selling,

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

===========================================

Fundamentals Are in Place For Silver To Move Higher – Seeking Alpha

Source: The Silver Analyst

The fundamentals are in place for silver and gold to move higher. The ongoing issuance of US treasuries and further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve inevitably point to continued dollar weakness. The interesting fact that the Fed stepped in recently to indirectly buy some of the auctioned bonds points to a decreasing lack of investor appetite for US debt. That the Fed indulged in QE is no surprise – they announced that months ago. It was more the fact they had to step into the void created by the absence of buyers that was more telling. So much for the fundamentals – now what about the technicals of timing?

No doubt you are aware that the US Dollar Index has breached longer term support at 77.7 and is currently slogging to retrieve that level of support. We don’t think it will succeed but for how long it will hold out is as yet uncertain. The breach is slight and we are still looking for a decisive breach that will propel gold and silver higher. The chart below sums up the dollar situation with potential overhead resistance at 79.

Looking at silver, we are seeing a pattern emerge that suggests if the dollar breaks to the downside, silver will be targeting its former high of $21 though we are uncertain of it completely taking that high out in the medium term. Nevertheless a buying opportunity is present and as advised to subscribers, we already have gone long in July.

The question for those with positions is when to exit? The silver chart is shown below displaying the longer term trend in terms of months with the prospect of the upper channel being tested if the dollar falls through to its lower channel in the low 70s. As a guide, remember when the US Dollar fell to 70 in March 2008, silver went to $21.

Zooming into the daily charts, we see silver has begun a move up since mid-July not dissimilar to the moves up in February and June. Those moves lasted two to three months and we anticipate something of the same here. Note the support lines in the two prior moves and their similar angles of ascent. By way of projection I have copied the first trend line from February and superimposed it on the current move. It meets the longer term line of resistance at about $18. That is the kind of price action we hope silver will indulge us when the dollar breaks down further.

You will also note the Elliott wave notation. The last move up from April to June was a clear impulse wave and this current wave looks to be in a wave 3 now with all the upside potential that such a wave brings.

So the stage is set for some fireworks but to aid our silver and gold cause the resistance line on the US Dollar Index chart needs to hold. So far it is and next week should prove to be very interesting.

Disclosure: The Silver Analyst is long silver bullion!

============================================

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============================================

Gold Bullion Regaining Its Glitter – Seeking Alpha

By: Prieur du Plessis of Investment Postcards

Is gold bullion coming back to life? Should one read anything into the rise of 6.2% (+$56) since the yellow metal’s low of early July?

When it comes to gold bullion and gold stocks, I need to confess I started my investment career in 1984 as none other than a mining analyst. Ever since those days of calculating net present values on my trusted HP 12C I have been intrigued by the shenanigans of the yellow metal and related stocks. And I have also learnt over the years that one should never underestimate the ability of the gold price to surprise when least expected.

Admittedly, part of the improvement in the gold price can be ascribed to the fading US greenback, which declined by 3.9% over the same period. I always have more faith in gold’s rallies when they are not only a reflection of US dollar weakness, but gold is also appreciating in most currencies. This serves as an indication of increased investment demand and is a phenomenon one should keep an eye on as gold might just have started moving independently of the dollar over the past few days.

Considering the fundamental outlook for gold, a very comprehensive report was recently published by Austria’s Erste Group. The analysts list the positive and negative influences below, leading them to conclude that gold is only half-way through a secular bull market and offers an outstanding risk/return profile.

Negative factors:
• Clearly falling jewellery demand.
• Recessions are basically not a good environment for the gold price (the gold price gets stimulated at a later stage by the measures taken during the recession).
• Gold tends to be held as asset and cash of last resort, which means it is liquidated in extreme financial situations. Given that more than 70% of jewellery is bought on the Indian subcontinent, the supply of recycled gold might continue to rise.
• De-hedging is coming to an end.
• The futures positions (CoT) would suggest a short-term correction.

Positive aspects:
• The worldwide reflationary policy will continue for a while.
• Global USD reserves are excessive, and the need to diversify is enormous.
• De facto zero-interest policy in USA, Japan and Europe.
• Central banks have changed their attitude towards gold.
• Supply still in long-term downward trend.
• Investment demand will remain high; Wall Street has discovered gold.
• Commodity cycle has a long way to go.
• Geopolitical environment remains fragile.
• China will increase its gold reserves.

Gold’s technical picture is certainly looking up. This is explained by Adam Hewison of INO.com who prepared a short analysis of gold’s most likely direction. (The analysis was done on Tuesday, but is still as relevant today as it was then.)

Click here or on the image below to access the video presentation.

Seasonally, September also seems to be a good month for gold, with an average gain of 2.6% for the month since 1970.

Source: Plexus Asset Management

I am bullish on gold in the medium term, especially as I believe the vast money printing by central banks could set off strong inflation pressures down the road. I will not be surprised to see bullion passing the infamous $1,000 resistance level over the next few weeks – a question of fifth time lucky – and I will be inclined to add bullion to my portfolio on pullbacks.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

WooHoo Look at Gold!

Tags

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Well it looks like the rally is starting, growing slowly with a broad base of support for Gold. Keep accumulating while you have the chance. Lots of Companies out there that are looking mighty attractive. Remember accumulate juniors and mid tier producers or those companies at or near production. Remember I am still calling for $1250 gold by year end. The only monkey wrench that could be thrown in is if the big the shorts on the market try to drive it down one more time. Support lies at $950, $928, $910; and resistances are at $970, $987, and then $1000. This rally is very reminiscent of what  happened back in July-Aug. 2007 only on a more volatile basis. One other quick note as far as Silver is concerned. I am looking for $25+ Silver by the end of the year and to perform on a percentage basis even better than Gold. Some stocks I really like aggressive buys, (OSKFF) $6.80 OB, (HL) $3.75 OB, (NAK) $7.55 OB, (CDE) $16.00 OB, (NG) $5.00 OB, (FRG) $5.00 OB, and that’s just to mention a few.  For Silver, (FRMSF) $2.80 OB, (IVN) $8.50 OB, along with (HL) and (CDE). For Platinum and Palladium, (SWC) $7.50 OB, (PAL) $3.90 OB, (ANO) $1.25. (OB equals or better). Remember due your due diligence, consult your financial advisor’s and read the prospectuses before making any investments. Disclosure: I am Long all of the afore mentioned stocks. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

========================================

Please Follow me on Twitter & FaceBook at: 
http://twitter.com/jschulmansr - Overall Markets and Trading Blog
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===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; 

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

	
· Who's been driving this record bull-run in gold?
	
· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
	
· Why most investors are WRONG about gold… 
	
· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold,


at BullionVault  

====================================================

Why Gold Could Hit $1,300 This Year --- Seeking Alpha

By: Graham Summers of Gains, Pains, & Capital

Gold may be nearing its next major leg up.

No investment ever goes straight up or straight down. During the


last bull market in gold, the precious metal rose 2,329% from a


low of $35 in 1970 to a high of $850 in 1980. However, during that


time, there was a period of 18 months in which gold fell nearly 50%


(see the chart below).



As you can see, from mid-1971 to December 1974, gold rose 471%. It


then fell 50%, from December ’74 to August ’76. After that, it began

its next leg up, exploding 750% higher from August ’76 to January


1980. Now, in its current bull market (2001 to March 2008), gold


rose over 300% from $250 to a little over $1,000. And just like in


the mid-70s, it began showing signs of weakness after its first big


rally up to $1,014 in March ’08. At one point, it even fell to $700, a 30% retraction.

Granted, it wasn’t a full 50% retraction like the one that occurred


from 1974-76. But we are experiencing a financial crisis. And gold


is the most common catastrophe insurance.

If we were to go by the historic pattern of the gold market in the


‘70s, gold should experience upwards resistance for 19 months after


its first peak today. Gold’s recent peak was $1,014 in March ’08


(roughly 17 months ago). If this bull market parallels the last one,

then gold should renew its upward momentum in a very serious way


starting in October 2009. And this next leg up should be a major


one (the biggest gains came during the second rally in gold’s bull


market in the ‘70s).




The chart certainly forecasts a major move.



As you can see, gold has formed a long-term inverse head and


shoulders formation (two smaller collapses book-ending a major


collapse). Typically a head and shoulders predicts a massive


collapse. However, when the head and shoulders is inverse, as is


the case for gold today, this typically predicts a MAJOR leg up.

Indeed, any move above the “neckline” of 1,000 would forecast a


MAJOR move up to $1,300 or so. Going by history, this is precisely


the move we should expect: remember based on historical trends


(the gold bull market of the ‘70s) gold should begin its second


and largest leg up in September or October 2009.




Watch the gold chart closely over the next month or so. If gold


makes a move above $980 perhaps add to your current positions.


If it clears $1,000, hold on tight, cause the next leg up in this


secular bull market has begun.
Good Investing!
===================================================

My Note: After watching stocks (DJI) this afternoon and the strange


price behavior before the close, I felt I would add this article too!


-jschulmansr

===================================================

Five Reason the Market Could Crash This Fall - Seeking Alpha

By: Graham Summers of Gains, Pains, & Capital

With all this blather about “green shoots” and economic “recovery”


and new “bull market,” I thought I’d inject a little reality into


the collective financial dialogue. The following are ALL true, all


valid, and all horrifying…
 
Enjoy.
 
1)   High Frequency Trading Programs account for 70% of market


volume
 
High Frequency Trading Programs (HFTP) collect a ¼ of a penny


rebate for every transaction they make. They’re not interested


in making a gains from a trade, just collecting the rebate.
 
Let’s say an institutional investor has put in an order to buy


15,000 shares of XYZ company between $10.00 and $10.07. The


institution’s buy program is designed to make this order without


pushing up the stock price, so it buys the shares in chunks of


100 or so (often it also advertises to the index how many shares


are left in the order).
 
First it buys 100 shares at $10.00. That order clears, so the


program buys another 200 shares at $10.01. That clears, so the


program buys another 500 shares at $10.03. At this point an HFTP


will have recognized that an institutional investor is putting in


a large staggered order.
 
The HFTP then begins front-running the institutional investor. So


the HFTP puts in an order for 100 shares at $10.04. The broker who


was selling shares to the institutional investor would obviously


rather sell at a higher price (even if it’s just a penny). So the


broker sells his shares to the HFTP at $10.04. The HFTP then turns


around and sells its shares to the institutional investor for


$10.04 (which was the institution’s next price anyway).
 
In this way, the trading program makes ½ a penny (one ¼ for buying


from the broker and another ¼ for selling to the institution) AND


makes the institutional trader pay a penny more on the shares.
 
And this kind of nonsense now comprises 70% OF ALL MARKET


TRANSACTIONS. Put another way, the market is now no longer moving


based on REAL orders, it’s moving based on a bunch of HFTPs gaming


each other and REAL orders to earn fractions of a penny.
 
Currently, roughly five billion shares trade per day. Take away


HFTP’s transactions (70%) and you’ve got daily volume of 1.5


billion. That’s roughly the same amount of transactions that


occur during Christmas (see the HUGE drop in late December), a


time when almost every institution and investor is on vacation.
 
HFTPs were introduced under the auspices of providing liquidity.


But the liquidity they provide isn’t REAL. It’s largely microsecond


trades between computer programs, not REAL buy/sell orders from


someone who has any interest in owning stocks.
 
In fact, HFTPs are not REQUIRED to trade. They’re entirely “for


profit” enterprises. And the profits are obscene: $21 billion


spread out amongst the 100 or so firms who engage in this


(Goldman Sachs (GS) is the undisputed king controlling an estimated


21% of all High Frequency Trading).
 
So IF the market collapses (as it well could when the summer ends


and institutional participation returns to the market in full


force). HFTPs can simply stop trading, evaporating 70% of the


market’s trading volume overnight. Indeed, one could very easily


consider HFTPs to be the ULTIMATE market prop as you will soon see.
 
TAKE AWAY 70% of MARKET VOLUME AND YOU HAVE FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON.
 
2)   Even counting HFTP volume, market volume has contracted the


most since 1989
 
Indeed, volume hasn’t contracted like this since the summer of 1989.

For those of you who aren’t history buffs, the S&P 500’s performance


in 1989 offers some clues as what to expect this coming fall. In


1989, the S&P 500 staged a huge rally in March, followed by an even


stronger rally in July. Throughout this time, volume dried up to a


small trickle.
 
What followed wasn’t pretty.



 
Anytime stocks explode higher on next to no volume and crap


fundamentals you run the risk of a real collapse. I am officially


going on record now and stating that IF the S&P 500 hits 1,000, we


will see a full-blown Crash like last year.
 
3)   This Latest Market Rally is a Short-Squeeze and Nothing More
 
To date, the stock market is up 48% since its March lows. This is


truly incredible when you consider the underlying economic picture:


normally when the market rallies 40%+ from a bear market low, the


economy is already nine months into recovery mode. Indeed, assuming


the market is trading based on earnings, the S&P 500 is currently


discounting earnings growth of 40-50% for 2010. The odds of that


happening are about one in one million.
 
A closer examination of this rally reveals the degree to which


“junk” has triumphed over value. Since July 10th:
 

	
The 50 smallest stocks have outperformed the largest 50

	
stocks by 7.5%.
	
The 50 most shorted stocks have beaten the 50 least shorted

	
stocks by 8.8%.

 
Why is this?
 
Because this rally has largely been a short squeeze.
 
Consider that the short interest has plunged 72% in the last two


months. Those industries that should be falling the most right now


due to the world’s economic contraction (energy, materials, etc.)


have seen the largest drop in short interest: Energy -90%,


Materials -94%, Financials -86%.
 
In simple terms, this rally was the MOTHER of all short squeezes.


The fact that it occurred on next to no volume and crummy


fundamentals sets the stage for a VERY ugly correction.
 
4) 13 Million Americans Exhaust Unemployment by 12/09 
 
A lot of the bull-tards in the media have been going wild that


unemployment claims are falling. It strikes me as surprising that


this would be true given the fact that virtually every company that


posted the alleged “awesome” earnings in 2Q09 did so by laying off


thousands of employees:
 

	
Yahoo! (YHOO) will cut 675 jobs.
	
Verizon (VZ) just laid off 9,000 employees.
	
Motorola (MOT) plans to lay off 7,000 folks this year.
	
Shell (RDS.A) has laid off 150 management positions

	
(20% of management).
	
Microsoft (MSFT) plans to lay off 5,000 people this year.

 
So unemployment claims are falling, that means people are finding


jobs right? Wrong. It means that people are exhausting their


unemployment benefits. When you consider that there are 30 million


people on food stamps in the US (out of the 200 million that are of


working age: 15-64) it’s clear REAL unemployment must be closer to


16%.
 
And they’re slowly running out of their government lifelines.
 
The three million people who lost their jobs in the second half of


2008 will exhaust their benefits by October 2009. When you add in


dependents, this means that around 10 million folks will have no


income and virtually no savings come Halloween.  Throw in the other


four million who lost their jobs in the first half of 2009 and


you’ve got 13 million people (counting families) who will be


essentially destitute by year-end.





How does this affect the stock market?
 
The US consumer is 70% of our GDP. People without jobs don’t spend


money. People who are having to work part-time instead of full-time


(another nine million) spend less money than full time employees.


And people who are forced to work shorter work weeks (current


average is 33, an ALL TIME LOW), have less money to spend.
 
Wall Street makes a big deal about earnings (earnings estimates,


earnings forecast, etc), but when it comes to economic growth,


sales are the more critical metric. Companies can increase profits


by reducing costs temporarily, but unless actual top lines increase,

there is NO growth to be seen. No revenue growth means no hiring,


which means no uptick in employment, which means greater housing


and credit card defaults, greater Federal welfare (unemployment,


food stamps, etc), etc.
 
So how will corporate profits perform as more and more consumers


become part-time, unemployed, or destitute? Well, so far profits


have been awful. And that’s BEFORE we start seeing millions of


Americans losing their unemployment benefits.






With the S&P rallying on these already crap results… what do you


think will happen when reality sets in during 3Q09?
 
5) The $1 QUADRILLION Derivatives Time Bomb
 
Few commentators care to mention that the total notional value of


derivatives in the financial system is over $1.0 QUADRILLION


(that’s 1,000 TRILLIONS).
 
US Commercial banks alone own an unbelievable $202 trillion in


derivatives. The top five of them hold 96% of this.
 
By the way, the chart is in TRILLIONS of dollars:



As you can see, Goldman Sachs alone has $39 trillion in derivatives


outstanding. That’s an amount equal to more than three times total


US GDP. Amazing, but nothing compared to JP Morgan (JPM), which has


a whopping $80 TRILLION in derivatives on its balance sheet.
 
Bear in mind, these are “notional” values of derivatives, not the


amount of money “at risk” here. However, if even 1% of the $1


Quadrillion is actually at risk, you’re talking about $10 trillion


in “at risk.”
 
What are the odds that Wall Street, when allowed to trade without


any regulation, oversight, or audits, put a lot of money at risk?


I mean… Wall Street’s track record regarding financial instruments


that were ACTUALLY analyzed and rated by credit ratings agencies


has so far been stellar.
 
After all, mortgage backed securities, credit default swaps,


collateralized debt obligations… those vehicles all turned out


great what with the ratings agencies, banks risk management systems,

and various other oversight committees reviewing them.
 
I’m sure that derivatives which have absolutely NO oversight, no


auditing, no regulation, will ALL be fine. There’s NO WAY that the


very same financial institutions that used 30-to-1 leverage or more


on regulated balance sheet investments would put $50+ trillion “at


risk” (only 5% of the $1 quadrillion notional) when they were


trading derivatives.
 
If Wall Street did put $50 trillion at risk… and 10% of that money


goes bad (quite a low estimate given defaults on regulated


securities) that means $5 trillion in losses: an amount equal to


HALF of the total US stock market.
 
This of course assumes that Wall Street only put 5% of its notional


value of derivatives at risk… and only 10% of the derivatives “at


risk” go bad.



 Do you think those assumptions are a bit… low?


===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; 

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

	
· Who's been driving this record bull-run in gold?
	
· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
	
· Why most investors are WRONG about gold… 
	
· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at


BullionVault  

====================================================

Nothing in today's post should be considered as an offer to buy or


sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for


informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your


Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s


and related information carefully before you make any investing


decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr
  

 



  

The “Other” Shoe Is It Dropping?

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

The other shoe what is it? Actually, there are several “other” shoes getting ready to drop. Today we saw one of them… Did you check out the Treasury Auction today? What happened on those 5 year notes. They didn’t sell all they offered in simple terms. This is a huge week of financing for the Treasury and they had a shortfall and were only able to sell $39 billion; the bid to cover ratio was 1.92 the weakest in almost a year. Yields (the tail) were well above expectations with the yield rising to a 4 week high of 2.66%.

In turn the stock market dropped 26 points to close at 9071 DJI. Slipping ever closer to falling beneath 9000. Analyst’s however are stating the the DJI came back up after much deeper losses which is bullish. Hmm… Could there be another round of fabricated unemployment numbers tomorrow? This market is being heavily manipulated and is try to suck in investors to the upside so that BAM!, another Crash and there goes another chunk of our savings down the drain. Be aware, watch the remaining Treasury auction, keep your stop loss points very close. Remember there is a little bit of room to the upside to make a nice head and shoulders.

Alas, poor Gold today down another $12 today. Good news for smart investors, time to buy more. Believe it or not the rally start is about 1 to 1/2 months away, maybe much sooner. Oil did it’s retracement today and will start heading back to $70 barrel. Keep accumulating in both Precious Metals and Oil stocks junior and mid tier producers. Our time is coming very soon.

In the coming days I will put together/report my portfolio fav’s and publish them so you can check them out for yourself. Stay tuned, subscribe to the blog or follow me on Twitter to be the first to know.

Please Follow me on Twitter & FaceBook at: 
http://twitter.com/jschulmansr - Overall Markets and Trading Blog
http://twitter.com/daresomething - Politics
http://twitter.com/tweetsgold - Gold and Precious Metals
http://twitter.com/tweetsthecash - Internet Marketing and Affiliate Marketing
FaceBook http://facebook.com/jschulmansr 

Good Investing! – jschulmansr

========================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=======================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Market Update -jschulmansr

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Okay, I admit it this rally took me a little by surprise. Ah… Hope springs eternal! Everybody is banking that we are out of the woods. Well take your profits, keep your stops tight protect yourself. I may be wrong again and we may see 10,000 on the DJI. However, I still think we have an actual retracement needed, and I don’t think that support is very strong underlying the market. Companies are still downsizing, even I fell victim to this. Yes, I am now officially in the ranks of the unemployed. Thank God I can trade and have a severance package otherwise, I would be doomed to getting unemployment which is no where close to my earnings; and/or ability to pay my bills. Market Confidence is definitely waning.

——————————————————————–

Please Follow me on Twitter at: 
http://twitter.com/jschulmansr  
http://twitter.com/tweetsthecash 
http://twitter.com/daresomething 
FaceBook http://facebook.com/jschulmansr 

---------------------------------------------------------

Unemployment rates are still much higher than stated. Home sales while up, how many of those are companies lowering prices to cost or below just to get them off their inventory rolls. Inflation due to unlimited money printing, is cause a pricing increase across the board. Inflation is here. Bernanke is caught between a rock and a hard place. If he increase Interest rates he will destroy the budding economy. If he keeps interest rates the same and keeps printing money, he will cause continued price and overall Inflation maybe even Hyper-Inflation.

Next are you really aware of what is in the current health reform bill if not you must read it. Here is the link all 1018 pages. It is an outright power grab and takeover of our country by Government and the Banks, and the “shadow government. According to information published, they have stated they will bring the Stock Market back to these levels (9000-10,000 DJI), suck everybody in, and crash the market and steal your money. When I say crash, I mean crash, all the way down to 6400 or worse. Be advised and be prepared. You will not heard this talked about on market news even from FOX. Here are some of the sources read here and here. These are just a few of many sources that you can check, read and decide for yourself.

———————————————————————–

Should You take a bite out of Apple? Apple Analysis (New Video)

http://bit.ly/CoDMa

Where is Oil and USO headed? Further Up or Further Down? What’s the best strategy for USO? (New Video) http://bit.ly/14eDeW

Learn where Gold Prices are Going! The cyclic pattern of gold! (New Video) http://bit.ly/eLyQP

Is the Dollar Doomed? Dollar Vs Yen How Do I Play It? Revisiting and reanalyzing the USD/JPY(New Video) http://bit.ly/Fnlq7

Whipsawed By Goldman? Here’s How you SHOULD have traded Goldman and What You Should Do Now! (New Video)  http://bit.ly/3anG2z

——————————————————————–

Today on the Dow it made a futile attempt to jump to the positive before being slammed and seesawed near the close. If I were to project the market it looks like we are forming an actual Head and shoulders top and are cureently worrking on the head. There is still a little room for the upside to somewhere around 9500-9600 DJI will be a strong resistance point. Next 10,000 DJI, and then the gap around 10,300 DJI. Remember however, we have already moved high enough to qualify as the head so bring your stops in tight.

Look for continued US Dollar weakness long term, be prepared that Bernanke may have raise Interest Rates which will give a short term boost to the Dollar; but long term there isd only one direction down. Oil until end of summer will trade in a range (barring any unforseen news) between $60 and $75-$80. At end of August look for new push higher back over $100 at the minimum.

Time for my favorite Gold, they are trying to push it down one more time again, especially since the summer, thin traded market, and before the CFTC actually brings in posistion limits in Commodities trading. I am still calling for $1250 Gold by the end of the year, with $25 Silver, Platinum around $1800 -$2000. Take Delivery on any bullion you purchase especially off of COMEX. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

——————————————————————

Here is where I buy my Bullion, get one free gram of Gold just for opening an account! Catch the New Bull! – Buy Gold Online – Get 1 gram free just for opening account- just click here and then again on the Gold Bar!, no minimums – Buy Safely, quickly, and at low prices, guaranteed! – Bullion Vault.com

——————————————————————-

– Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox. Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

Click Here For Your Free Analysis

===========================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

A Sucker’s 2 day rally – New $725 Stock Tip!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, Nouriel Roubini, NXG, Osisko Mining, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

I really hope you haven’t been fooled by this latest little upswing over the last couple of days in the Stock Markets. Please take your profits now and do it tomorrow! Turn that money over into resource based stocks especially Gold and Silver, Oil and Energy, and your basic foodstuff and base metal commodities. Wed. rally was to get rid of the weak shorts snatch their cash and today fool them to turn their positions and catch them with a whipsaw. Thurs. rally basically caused by Roubini semi positive remarks on the economy. How interesting, I wonder what tomorrow Fri. result will be when the markets hear about Roubini’s rebuttal (of course after market close!).

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

Auto follow, Auto Thankyou for follow mssgs, Auto tweet, Set And Forget It! Free SignUp! TweetLater.com http://linkbee.com/BDGKC

If you can’t wait scroll to bottom of the post for today’s free $725 value stock tip…

I wanted to take a minute and share with you some excellent links to INO.com Market Club. I am personally a member and I love their charting tools and their patented “Triangle Technology”. This is a “must have” for any serious trader. I’ve arranged for my readers a couple of special videos on the Dow Jones Industrial’s, the Dollar Index, the Aussie Dollar.

Watch them, look around Ino, Market Club, and sign up for the “free” stuff to check them out…

Important Dow Update, July 14th

In today’s short video I am going to be revisiting the Dow Jones Industrial index (DJI).

Dow Update

I think it’s very interesting to see what our “Trade Triangles” are doing as well as what our Talking Charts are saying about this market.

I’ll also be using MarketClub’s Fibonacci tool. If you have not seen this tool in action, I strongly recommend that you watch today’s video.

You can watch this video with my compliments and there is no registration requirements.

Exploring the Dollar Index

While the US dollar was supposed to lose ground against its counter parties, the market has remained surprisingly stubborn and trapped in a sideways trading range.

In today’s video I will explore what’s going on, and where I think this market is headed in the future.

You can watch this video with my compliments and there is no registration requirements.

Dollar Index

What’s up with the currency from down-under?

We are taking a trip down under today.

It has been sometime since we last looked at the relationship between the US dollar and the Australian dollar (USD/AUD). Today seemed like an opportune time to look at this cross and to figure out where it is headed using our “Trade Triangle” technology.

We’re also using MarketClub’s Fibonacci tool. If you have not seen this tool in action, I strongly recommend that you watch today’s video.

Aussie Dollar

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

======================================

Roubini refutes better outlook – MarketWatch

By Kate Gibson

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Economist Nouriel Roubini on Thursday refuted reports that he had improved his economic outlook, saying his comments at an investors conference earlier in the day were taken out of context. “I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010,” Roubini said in a statement.

======================================

Roubini: I Was Taken Out of Context – The Street.Com

The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor, and professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:

It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports — however — my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything, my views were taken out of context.

I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year-end, it will have lasted 24 months, with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put, I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year-end — as I have consistently predicted — it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper — in terms of cumulative GDP contraction — than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

I have also consistently argued — including in my remarks today — that while the consensus predicts that the U.S. economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession, as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long-term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.

While the recession will be over by the end of the year, the recovery will be weak, given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive releveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks, the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such [a] large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the U.S. and the global economy; but as I have consistently argued. the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

RGE Monitor will soon release our updated U.S. and Global Economic Outlook. A preview of the U.S. Outlook is available on our website: www.rgemonitor.com

==================================

Now for the $725 "HOT" Stock Tip. Another leading newsletter is
offering to give the name of this new Gold Find the 7th largest
Gold deposit in North America. Surrounded by some very compelling
and excellent copywriting that I have seen, you are drawn into the 
story about renegade geologist and his team have uncovered one of 
the largest gold reserves in North America – over $10 billion dollars
worth.

All is now in place to begin mining the earth and getting the gold out 
of the ground and the mine into production. Equipment is already bought 
and being delivered. What’s even better is that this is an  opportunity 
that where this small company has so much gold that it’s about become a
mid-size gold producer in record time.

One thing I can tell you is this... The best time to "buy" gold is
before a single ounce comes out of the ground... while the shares
are still very cheap. Currently trading for around $6-$6.50, while
the gold alone is worth roughly $35 per share). 

Drum Roll Please... The name of the company Osisko Mining Corp. (OSKFF).

Enjoy and Good Investing! - jschulmansr

 ===============================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; 
Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault 
===============================================
Nothing in today's post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell
any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational
purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s,
Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information
carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.
–  jschulmansr

An Open Letter To Congress – STOP!

 Today, the big 3 shorts tried to push and manipulate Gold beneath $950, however once again, they failed. Gold hit a low of $946 before bouncing back up and closing at $953. $950 is the new base of support for Gold. The Stock Market did manage to claw it’s way back to basically even/ unchanged for the day.-Good Investing! – Jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!===================================================

==============================================
Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a  steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

 Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just

Click on the Links Below…

 

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

I Decided to Make my voice heard today.

Today I decided to become involved and take action, here is the letter…  

Sent to my elected officials in congress; John McCain, Harry Mitchell,

and Jon Kyle.

 
An Open Letter To Congress – Stop!
 
By: Jeffrey S. Schulman Sr.
 
 
Dear Hon. Represenatives’s John, Harry and Jon;
 
     I have written to you many times before on various issues. Since my last communication, I am in process of becoming a District Committeeman for AZ. 5, 21. In addition I will be posting this letter and the results (actions you take), on my Blog, Dare Something Worthy Today Too! (https://jschulmansr.wordpress.com).
 
     Why I am writing to you this time is the question, “what are we doing to the financial futures of our present country, our children, grandchildren, and even great-grandchildren?” I am gravely concerned in light of the following…
 
     In May of last year the U.S. money supply stood at roughly $834 billion. Now, 1 year later, the Federal Reserve has created an additional $941 billion out of thin air. Pay close attention to those numbers…
 
·         The amount of new money (FRN’s) the Fed has created is roughly $107 billion     more than all the money that was in circulation just a year ago.
 
·         In other words, the U.S. money supply has more than doubled!
       Think about what this does to the value of your dollars, to your savings, to your paycheck, to your retirement income? A doubling of the money supply means your money is worth half what it was.
 
     Of course, your money’s loss of value won’t manifest itself overnight. It will take time for the Fed’s counterfeiting to drive up prices. But those who get the new money first will be able to spend it while prices are still low, increasing their wealth at your expense. 
 
     In addition, The Fed regulates banks, influences interest rates, and determines the size of our money supply through a complex process, called Open Market Operations, that involves buying and selling securities (mostly government debt). The Fed’s policies determine the value of your money, the health of the economy, and the
rates you pay to borrow.
 
     The Fed’s decision-making process is secret, using confidential information.
 
     Minutes of these secret meetings aren’t due until three weeks after decisions are announced.
 
     Transcripts of meetings don’t become available until five years later.
  
     Aside from the Chair, Fed board members serve the longest terms of any federal bureaucrat (14 years), and they can’t be fired for political reasons.

     The Comptroller General, head of the Government Accountability Office, is legally prohibited from auditing the Fed’s Open Market operations, and several other important Fed activities.
 
      The Fed is part of the Federal Government, but acts without any of the regular checks and balances.
 
     Next, The Fed and the federal government has made a lot of promises in our names. It has committed us to pay most of the health care expenses of the elderly (Medicare) and to provide them with a small stipend (Social Security). It has also borrowed trillions of dollars, to pay current expenses, which your children and
grandchildren will have to repay.
 
     Unfortunately, future revenues will be insufficient to fulfill these promises.
 
The Government Accountability Office estimates the future shortfall in funding at $53.3 trillion. Other experts say the number is almost certainly higher. This means that every full-time worker owes a staggering $440,000+, courtesy of government excess. Eventually, that debt must be paid, either in higher taxes, or in reduced benefits. These numbers represent a looming crisis of staggering proportions.
 
     Fortunately, there is still time to fix and reverse this crisis…
 
     The first thing I am asking you to do is co-sponsor and support Congressman Ron Paul of Texas bill that he introduced H.R. 1207, the Federal Reserve Transparency Act.
 
     This bill requires an audit of the Fed by 2010. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has introduced the similar S.604 in the Senate. Please support and vote for these bills.
 
     Next I am aware that the federal government has future unfunded liabilities estimated at $53 trillion. Please stop ignoring this problem. Please start reducing spending now. Balance the budget now. And start retiring the debt now so you can stop spending so much of my tax money on interest charges.
 
     Finally and of critical importance (actually all three requests are of critical importance), In the 110th Congress, Rep. Ron Paul introduced three bills that would have brought the above benefits. He will re-introduce them this year, and they should be combined into ONE simple bill. The benefits in addition to stopping or at least
curbing inflation are these:

     Ending inflation would cause your money to buy more and more as the economy grows, instead of less and less, as it does today. Stopping inflation would also end bubbles and booms, and the recessions they cause.

       The three bills which should be combined into one simple bill are
these:
 
    The 15-word “Honest Money Act” would repeal the 41-word legal
tender law, which gives the Federal Reserve a monopoly over the money supply.
 
     The 104-word “Free Competition in Currency Act” would repeal the
69 words of Title 18 Section 489 of the U.S. Code, which gives the
United States government a monopoly over the creation of coins for use as currency.
 
     The 193-word “Tax-Free Gold Act” would prohibit federal and state
taxes on precious metal coins and bullion.
 
     The explanation on why we should repeal the Fed’s legal tender
and coinage monopoly is this:
 
     Every paper dollar you own carries the words “Federal Reserve Note” (FRN). This means they were issued by the Federal Reserve System (the Fed), a national bank created by Congress. The legal tender law gives the Fed monopoly control over what you use for money.
 
     When a currency is legal tender you are legally compelled to accept
it in payment for debts, even if you’ve made a contract to be paid in
some other currency or commodity, such as gold. Abolishing taxes on precious metal coins and bullion, and repealing both the legal tender law and the federal coin monopoly, would free you to use other currencies, gold, silver, or all of them at the same time,
including FRNs.
 
      If this seems like a strange new world to you, please realize that
you already live in this world to a certain extent.
 
     When you check-out at a store you can already pay using cash, check, debit card, or credit card, and you probably also have different accounts you use for various purposes. Repealing the legal tender monopoly would simply give you more choices.
 
     Choice is good because it allows competition. Monopoly is bad because it leads to price-fixing. And monopoly control over what you may use as money provides the greatest price-fixing power of all. It impacts ALL of your economic transactions. The Fed can manipulate the price of everything by increasing the number of circulating
dollars (inflation), or by decreasing that number (deflation).
 
     You already know what it means when counterfeiters inflate the money supply. They use their fake money to get something for nothing, taking wealth from others without creating any wealth of their own. It’s a form of stealing. But the long-term consequences of counterfeiting are even worse than the initial theft.
 
     If the counterfeit dollars were allowed to stay in the economy, instead of gradually being removed from circulation, the result would be an ever-growing inflation of the money supply. This inflation would trick businesses into making a disastrous mistake.
 

     Thus, if you were a widget maker you would see an increased demand for your widgets because of the extra dollars pumped into the economy by the counterfeiters. A sense of increased demand and increased wealth would be the “bubble,” or “boom,” that always follows an inflation of the money supply.
 
     Your widgets would start to fly off the shelves faster than you could make them. You would have to increase prices to maintain inventories and invest in new production to meet the increased demand. But this increased demand would be an illusion,
because . . .
 
     Everyone else would raise their prices too. And they’d increase them for the same reasons you did. Rising prices would remove the perception of increased wealth and soak up the extra spending power created by the counterfeit dollars. This would cause the demand for your widgets to shrink back to its old level, but with a wicked twist . . .
 
     The increased inventories and expanded production capacity you created in response to the inflationary boom would turn out not to be needed. Your widgets would start to gather dust on the shelf and you would have trouble paying your bills.

The result?
 
     You would lay-off recently hired employees and close your recently expanded production facilities.
 
      First came the inflationary boom, or bubble, and then the bust, or recession.
 
     Extra FRNs created by the Fed work exactly the same as extra FRNs created by counterfeiters. They allow those who get the dollars first to get something for nothing, followed by a boom, and then a bust.
 
     The Fed has numerous ways to create new FRNs out of thin air. Economists cloud these methods in complicated jargon, and the talking heads on TV make it all sound perfectly normal and even necessary, but the result is exactly the same as with illegal
counterfeiting.
 
     Given the above explanation it should come as no surprise that the greatest boom and bust in American history happened immediately following the Fed’s birth in 1913. Fed inflation put the inflationary “roar” in the “Roaring Twenties” followed by the biggest bust ever, the Great Depression.
 
     Past inflations, booms, and busts were created through essentially the same process, including the recent stock market and housing bubbles. The Fed is simply the government’s latest-and-greatest tool for legalized counterfeiting.
 
     Imagine what would happen if FRNs had to compete with gold, a form of money that can’t be significantly inflated or deflated because of its scarcity and durability. . .
 

     People would begin to have gold accounts that they would use to buy and sell. The ownership of the gold would be transferred back and forth using checks, debit cards, paper certificates (currency), and a few coins, just like with FRNs.
 
     When you went shopping you might start to see two prices, one in FRNs and one in a certain weight of gold. If the Fed inflated the number of FRNs you would see the FRN prices rise while the gold price would stay roughly the same.
 
     You would begin to prefer to pay the gold price, so you would want to be paid in gold too.
 
     How could the Fed stop the flight to gold? Only one way, Stop inflating the number of FRNs (printing more new U.S. Dollars).
 
     Congressman Paul has hit upon the easiest way to end inflation, and the booms and busts that follow in its wake. Simply repeal the legal tender monopoly enjoyed by FRNs, and the coinage monopoly held by the United States government. Stop taxing exchanges in commodity metals. Allow monetary competition. This would help end inflation.

But that’s not all . . .
 
     Forcing FRNs ( the U.S. Dollar) to compete with gold would also confer one other benefit. Over time the prices you pay will tend to fall as increases in economic efficiency (for example, technological improvements) lower the cost of production and increase the supply of goods and services. A stable money supply tends to become more
valuable over time, unlike an inflationary currency that constantly loses value.
 
     Once again I am asking you to Audit the Fed and support HR 1207, S.604. Next, reduce spending now! Balance the budget and start retiring U.S. Debt. Stop the manipulation of Gold and Silver Prices. Finally, Please sponsor and support “The Honest Money Act”, “The Free Competition in Currency Act”, and the “Tax-Free Gold Act”.
 
     We will remember your choices and actions, and your votes with our votes in the next elections.
 
Sincerely,
 
Jeffrey S. Schulman Sr.

My Note: Please Join me!, write your elected represenatives and ask them to support all of the measures listed in my letter.- jschulmansr

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

 

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities

or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor,

consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and

related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.

–  jschulmansr

Here We Go Again!

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Here We Go Again! (DJI) Key make or break point 8750. The rah rah is working partially and so stocks continue to creep up. However after looking at Gold, Oil, and Treasuries we have to ask what is really about to happen. Here’s my take in one word… Inflation. Now let’s make that word a little bit more truer… Hyper-Inflation! Yes, my readers that is what is about to come up. You may now just be starting to hear the mainstream press talking about inflation fears, but still they have their heads in the sands and are going on ad nauseum about the glimmers of recover and how were are in a new Bull market for stocks. The only real Bull Market for Stocks are in the hard assests sectors i.e. Gold, Silver, Oil, and the like. Oh, don’t get me wrong, I think the (DJI) will make another stab at 9000 if it can successfully break thru the (DJI) 8750, (S&P 500) 975. Failure here means the beginning of the downward spiral all the way down to (DJI) 6500 again. The Dollar is doomed and is already on the way down. Just think what happens to your purchasing power with the Dollar going down and inflation kicking in? Definitely not a pretty picture!

Now for Gold and Silver is there any doubt? To the moon Alice! Do yourself a favor take your profits out now in Stocks and put them into hard assets.  The reason is simple, they tried to manipulate the prices yesterday by taking huge short and driving Gold down to $960 level. Then look what happened today Gold came screaming back. Gold will take out the $1007 barrier! There will be resistance and more huge short positions taken around $990 in a last vain attempt/manipulation to hold Gold back, but it will fail. Remember to preserve the purchasing power of your dollar is to buy Gold and Silver, especially Silver NOW! Get aboard the Precious Metals train now, it is leaving the station… Good Investing! – jschulmansr

ps- I promised a HOT Stock go to last section of today’s post.

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Today only One Article – I know you just can’t wait for the Hot Tip, so if in a hurry scroll down to bottom/end of post. But then COME back and read this article and click on the links within the article to learn what is really going on with Precious Metals price manipulation. -jschulmansr

Will a ‘Silver Bullet’ Finally Kill the Metal Manipulators?- Seeking Alpha 

By: Jeff Nielson of Bullion Bulls Canada

In my previous commentary, “Silver market fundamentals DISTORTED by bullion-ETFs”, I pointed out how (so-called) “bullion-ETFs” were (with rare exceptions) merely a tool of the manipulators – with two primary purposes.

First of all, bullion-ETFs soak-up billions of investor-dollars each year, which would otherwise be invested in real bullion, or in the shares of precious metals miners. Naturally, this has helped to depress the price of silver, and severely depress the price of silver miners – since almost all of the diverted investor-dollars were diverted from the miners, and not bullion, itself. I also showed how these fraudulent investment vehicles have been used to artificially inflate the supposed inventory-levels of silver stockpiles.

Specifically, at a time when actual silver inventories are at their lowest level in centuries, the (supposed) amount of “bullion” these funds claim to hold has singlehandedly resulted in “official” inventory levels tripling in just three years – after plunging by 90%.

Today’s market price is based upon these phony “inventories” despite the fact that the bullion-banks who claim to hold all this silver are never subjected to audits, to determine that they are not only holding enough silver to cover their custodial agreements with the “bullion-ETFs” – but are also holding sufficient silver to cover the MUCH larger “short” positions of these Manipulators (see “Silver Manipulation the worst in history – Ted Butler”).

Unless and until there is such a full and complete audit, the only rational assumption for investors is this supposed “tripling”of inventories is totally illusory, which also means that the “bullion” that is claimed to be held by these bullion-ETFs is also illusory.

As I have also mentioned before, it is elementary economics than any “good” which is undervalued will be over-consumed (relative to its current price). Thus, we have TWO extremely important dynamics which are setting up this sector for a final “implosion” of the criminal conspiracy by the anti-precious metals cabal.

First, price-suppression means the (actual) tiny inventories of silver are still declining not increasing. It is simply absurd to claim that with record, investment demand and declining mine production (due to the dramatic cuts in base metals production) that inventories are increasing. The under-pricing of silver simply confirms this trend.

Secondly, with real inventories only 1/3^rd of what is claimed by the Manipulators, continuing to under-price silver (through continued manipulation) must result in a supply “squeeze” which inevitably causes the price to “spike” (and begin to correct toward some sort of medium-term equilibrium). Given that there has been no similar depletion of gold stockpiles (merely the transfer of ownership), it is far more likely that the final defeat of the anti-gold cabal will be accomplished via a default in silver markets.

The BIG question in the minds of all precious metals “bulls” is when and how will this final victory occur?

Many commentators have pointed to the rigged Comex markets in New York as the place where the final destruction of the Manipulators will occur. However, with the short positions of the bullion-banks, and their (supposed) “custodial agreements” with the bullion-ETFs being “two sides of the same coin”, then implosion could originate in either component of this fraudulent manipulation.

A bullion-default at the Comex (or “Crimex”, as some like to call it) is a very simple scenario. The Comex is essentially selling its phony, “paper” futures for less than any other bullion market. Thus, at some point, large buyers will simply step into this market and continue relentless, heavy buying until default occurs.

Specifically, there would be a “failure to deliver” of bullion to a buyer (or buyers) – who chose to hold their futures contract until expiry, and thus take “physical” delivery of real bullion. As has been reported by several commentators, apparently such a default nearly occurred just weeks ago (see “Did ECB save Deutsche Bank from Comex gold-default?”).

There has been a great deal of frustration among the “gold bugs” (in particular) that such a final “show-down” has not already taken place. However, perhaps we would all be more patient in this respect if we were to try to put ourselves in the position of such big “players”.

Looking at silver, based on fundamentals, it is totally obvious that silver is headed for a spectacular explosion in its price. At a time of record demand for gold and silver, there are lower inventories of silver (relative to gold and in absolute terms) than at any time in centuries. Simultaneously, the gold/silver price ratio is more unfavorable for silver than at nearly any time in history, currently over 60:1. The long-term price ratio (over thousands of years) is 15:1. Additionally, as “elements” in the Earth’s crust, silver is only 17 times as plentiful as gold. Thus, a 60:1 ratio is not remotely sustainable, even over the medium term.

Therefore, armed with the knowledge that investing in silver will yield a huge windfall for all long-term investors, do you (as a large “player” in the silver market) force the inevitable implosion now (and “kill” the proverbial “goose that lays the silver eggs”) – or, do you patiently use the Manipulators game against them: buying as much grossly undervalued silver as you can from these criminals, before their inevitable self-destruction?

From this perspective, it is suddenly much less automatic that the demise of the Manipulators will occur at the Crimex.

I would remind people about an event which went practically unreported last year in North America: at the time of AIG‘s near-bankruptcy, the European bullion-ETFs “guaranteed” by AIG briefly plunged in value – to a price MUCH lower than the nominal price of the bullion they (supposedly) held. The reason? Investors were “betting” in a clearly visible manner that if AIG was forced into bankruptcy it would not be able to honour its “custodian agreements” with these bullion-ETFs – leaving the investors in these funds holding paper and not bullion.

Thus, the outrageously expensive bail-out of AIG (over $180 BILLION, and counting) was not undertaken solely in order to secretly funnel roughly $10 billion into the vaults of Goldman Sachs. It was also bailed-out to prevent a domino-like chain of events. All it will take is for one “bullion-ETF” to default, and then the entire scheme/scam of the Manipulators would inevitably collapse.

The sequence of events is obvious: after seeing one group of bullion-ETF investors wiped-out (or nearly so) by fraud, then obviously the unit-holders for all (so-called) bullion-ETFs would demand thorough and honest audits of the bullion-banks who are essentially running these scams.

Even if the bullion-banks could scrounge-up enough bullion to cover their “custodial agreements”, there would be little if anything left over to “cover” their much larger “short” positions. With “blood in the water”, futures-buyers would obviously immediately start lining up for “delivery” at the Crimex – hoping to be the last buyer to grab some real bullion before the Manipulators were completely wiped out.

Thus, there appear to be three very plausible scenarios leading to the destruction of the Manipulators, and the explosion of the price of gold and silver.

1. The frequently-predicted default at the Comex;
2. The bankruptcy of one (or more) of the bullion-banks; or
3. A default of one or more bullion-ETFs through a thorough audit being performed.

Given what the U.S. government has already shown it was willing to spend to “defend” AIG’s custodial agreements with bullion-ETFs, the second scenario would appear to have the least probability of occurring. However, there is still somewhere close to a quadrillion dollars of derivatives floating around in Wall Street’s private “casino”. Any surprise-implosion of a position in this market could create such unimaginable losses (hundreds of times higher than those of AIG) that a bail-out would simply be impossible to ram-through the corrupt, U.S. government – without literally setting off a second “American Revolution”.

Personally, I see the default of the bullion-ETFs to be slightly more likely than any other scenario for destroying the Manipulators. As with any scam, the larger it grows, the greater the likelihood of exposure. When bullion-ETFs were first created, their claim that they could buy infinite amounts of bullion, with zero “premiums” and store all this bullion for zero storage costs attracted little attention.

With the holdings of these bullion-ETFs rapidly approaching the total annual production of precious metals miners, and already being larger than the national stockpiles of almost every nation on Earth, this obviously-suspect “business model” will attract increasing doubt and skepticism among informed investors – until even blind/deaf/dumb “regulators” are forced to conduct a reputable audit of this sector.

For those hoping to read precisely when and where the Manipulators will meet their final defeat, I suppose you will be disappointed. Sorry, but I’m an “economist” – not a “psychic”. However, hopefully readers will derive some use out of this commentary.

First, because of depleted inventories, it is much more likely that it will be a silver default which “kills” the Manipulators, instead of a gold default. Secondly, as precious metals investors wait for this inevitable occurrence, you are reminded that there are three potential developments to watch for – and not just a “failure to deliver” at the Comex.

In the meantime, any/every investor who continues to add to his (or her) precious metals positions (preferably during short-term dips) is guaranteed to be richly rewarded. Given the extremely uncertain times in which we live, the reward of financial security is “precious”, indeed.

Disclosure: I hold no position in bullion-ETFs.

===================================================

One last note- I didn’t forget my promise, here is another HOT stock to buy and forget (hold). (WTMNF) a junior explorer West Timmins Mining. Currently trading in the .70 to .80 cent level.  I have mentioned before load up on the junior and mid-tier Precious Metals Producers, but to throw in some good exploration companies. West Timmins fits in the latercategory. They have the financing in place and are currently drilling. Here is a copy of one of their press releases from May 12th, 2009. I think it speaks for itself. -Good Investing! -jschulmansr 

WTM Intersects 13.64 g/t (0.40 oz/t) over 8.20 metres (26.90 feet) on North Zone Target, 100% owned Thorne Property, Timmins, Ontario

Bonanza grades confirmed including  41.30 g/t (1.20 oz/t) gold over 2.40 metres (7.87 feet) 

West Timmins Project drill program to be expanded

(Vancouver, May 12, 2009) – West Timmins Mining Inc. (WTM:TSX) (“WTM” or the “Company”) today announced that bonanza grade gold mineralization has been intersected from the North Zone on its 100% owned Thorne Property, part of the Company’s West Timmins Gold Project, in Timmins, Ontario. All three holes testing the North Zone returned high-grade gold mineralization, highlighted by hole GS09-31 which returned 8.20 metres (26.90 feet) grading 13.64 g/t (0.40 oz/ton) gold, including 2.40 metres (7.87 feet) grading 41.30 g/t (1.20 oz/t) gold.

 

“The North Zone adds another zone of high grade gold mineralization over significant widths on our 100% owned property package in Timmins. These results continue to confirm the presence of multiple high grade gold zones located in close proximity to each other in the West Timmins District. This clustering of high-grade gold zones is perhaps the single most significant characteristic of the Timmins Camp. History does appear to be repeating itself in the west end of the Camp” said Darin Wagner, President and CEO of West Timmins Mining. “WTM will immediately expand the scale and scope of our drill program on our 100% owned properties in Timmins and welcomes the recently announced expansion of the drill program on the adjacent Thunder Creek Joint Venture.”

 

WTM now has six expanding zones of high-grade gold mineralization located within 3 kilometres of each other in the West Timmins District: the Rusk and Porphyry Gold Zones on the Thunder Creek Joint Venture, the High-grade and Central sub-zones within the Golden River West Zone, the Hwy 144 Zone where high-grade intercepts have recently been reported and now confirmation of continuity and bonanza grades from the North Zone.

The North Zone is located along the northern flank of the Golden River Trend on WTM’s 100% owned Thorne Property. Historic work in the North Zone area has been re-interpreted based in large part on the recent discoveries of high-grade gold mineralization on the Company’s adjacent Thunder Creek Property and within the Golden River West Zone. This work has lead to the identification of a steeply plunging zone of high-grade gold mineralization. The North Zone mineralization is characterized by silica veining and flooding associated with significant visible gold mineralization and is very similar to many of the vein-style gold deposits in the Timmins Camp. Drilling has also intersected additional gold bearing structures beneath the North Zone, the NL1 and NL2 structures, which remain open for additional testing – again characteristic of gold systems in the Camp.

On-going exploration activities are focussing on the area between the Timmins West (now Timmins) gold deposit and the Destor-Porcupine Fault, located 5.0 kilometres to the south, where multiple gold-bearing systems have been confirmed within WTM’s extensive West Timmins Project land holdings. The Destor-Porcupine Fault is a deep-seat fault system which can be traced throughout the entire Timmins Camp.

Quality Control and Assurance

Geochemical results reported are from halved drill core samples collected from WTM’s 100% owned Thorne Property, part of the Company’s West Timmins Gold Project. Core samples were collected by employees and consultants in the employ of the Company and are subject to the Company’s quality control program. Sampling was conducted on site at the Company’s exploration office in Timmins, Ontario and sealed samples were transported to Swastika Labs preparation facilities in Swastika, Ontario. Samples were assayed for gold by standard fire assay- ICP finish with a 30 gram charge. Gold values in excess of 3.0 g/t were re-analyzed by fire assay with gravimetric finish and intercepts returning in excess of 8.0 g/t, or displaying visible gold mineralization, were re-analyzed by pulp screen metallic assaying for greater accuracy. The remaining half of the drill core is stored on-site at the Company’s Timmins exploration office. 

For quality control purposes blank, duplicate and analytical control standards were inserted into the sample sequence at irregular intervals. Mr. Darin Wagner (M.Sc., P.Geo), the Company’s President, has acted as non-independent qualified person for this news release. The qualified person has visited the project site, examined the intervals reported and, has verified that any significant analytical discrepancies have been resolved and that the reported results meet the Company’s quality control standards.

About West Timmins Mining Inc. (www.westtimminsmining.com):

 

WTM is focussed on the exploration and development of district-scale gold projects in the major gold camps of North America. The Company is advancing the high-grade Rusk and Porphyry Gold discoveries on its Thunder Creek joint venture in Timmins, Ontario and continues to test the nearby 5.0 kilometre long Golden River Trend. WTM also has active gold exploration projects in Mexico, highlighted by the high-grade Lluvia de Oro gold-silver Project in Chihuahua State. West Timmins Mining is based in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol WTM.

 

On behalf of the Board of

West Timmins Mining Inc.

 

“Darin W. Wagner”

 

Darin W. Wagner

President and Chief Executive Officer

For further information contact:
John Toporowski, Manager, Investor Relations

West Timmins Mining Inc., Vancouver

Tel: (604) 685-8311 / Toll Free: (866) 685-8311

E-mail: jtoporowski@westtimminsmining.com

 

The TSX has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or adequacy of this news release, which has been prepared by management.

 

For further details on West Timmins Mining Inc. please refer to prior disclosure at www.sedar.com. The securities described in this press release have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under any U.S. state securities laws, and such securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent an exemption from such registration requirements.

 

This press release contains forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities regulation, including statements regarding the future activities of the Company. Forward looking statements reflect the current beliefs and expectations of management and are identified by the use of words including “will”, “expected to”, “plans”, “planned” and other similar words. Actual results may differ significantly. The achievement of the results expressed in forward looking statements is subject to a number of risks, including those described in the Company’s annual information form as filed with the Canadian securities regulators which are available at www.sedar.com. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon forward looking statements.  

>READ PDF – Complete With Maps and the Entire Press release

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Flirting With Disaster!

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

     Key Test Today! Stocks are Flirting with disaster, 8268 (DJIA) is the neckline of a head and shoulders. If (DJIA) closes beneath that, then we are definitely starting the next leg back down. Nothing to hold the freefall except some support at 8000 (DJIA) and then secondary confirmation of a new down move if breaks the next support at (DJIA) 7840, 7800, and then 7550. Take your profits now before you ride the DJIA right back down again.

     Gold and Silver however are poised to take off! If Gold successfully closes above $980 then next stop – new ALL time highs. As I mentioned yesterday hre is what I see for Gold. I predict that Gold will break $978- $980 and push up to approximately $1075 to $1090 on the first leg. We will see a normal retracement down to $950- $975 and then blast off to $1150 -$1250. I personally think with the hyper-inflation shoe about to drop, coupled with the remaining half of the derivative crunch. We can easily see $2250 to $2500 Gold by the end of the year. Keep accumulating Gold and Precious metals especially the junior and mid-tier producers. There are still companies out there selling at or below book value.

     In case you missed it yesterday here is the stock tip that I was offered along with an advisory service costing $297 year. This is the stock in their “special report”. just came across a sweet little play in the cobalt industry, supplies are dwindling fast and there will be a shortage just at the time this company comes on line with production. This company will have the only high grade cobalt production in the United States and will be able to supply approximately 12-14% of Cobalt needs for the USA. If you check out what Cobalt is used for you will understand why this stock has the potential to be a Grand Slam. Production is anticipated to be approximately 1525 tons per year with a 10yr life based on current reserves. I just received an offer to buy this tip along with an advisory service for $297 yr. I’ll give it to you for free. That’s just the kind of guy I am, LOL! The name of the company is Formation Capital Corp. Trading symbol (FCACF). I just picked up a bunch @ .35 cents/share, but as always do your due diligence, read the prospectus and company reports. If nothing else put (FCACF) on your watch list / radar. – Good Investing! -jschulmansr

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Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you 

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a  steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault  

====================================================

 Now For some reports…

Jim Sinclair: 9 Immediate Predictions For Gold – Seeking Alpha

By: Peter Cooper of Arabian Money.net

Jim Sinclair is the doyen of gold experts. It is interesting to see a very clear timeframe for the gold price posted on his website yesterday:

1. Gold reacts as currency support for the dollar enters mid June to a slow decline (that is the official definition of a strong dollar policy, really).
2. End of 2nd week going into the beginning of the 3rd week of June Gold launches towards and this time through the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders formation.
3. Gold rises to $1224 where it hesitates.
4. The OTC derivative market takes on the dollar as short sellers into dollar support.
5. This OTC derivative currency short position builds.
6. t is the US dollar where Armstrong will get his WATERFALL.
7. The main selling takes place when Israel makes a major miscalculation.
8. Hyperinflation is always and will continue to be a currency event.
9. Hyperinflation will be a product of the upcoming massive OTC derivative short dollar raid.

“Should I be correct in the gold price action going into late June, it will fit Armstrong’s criterion for a move to $5,000”, adds Mr. Sinclair whose predictions are not always right, and who got similarly carried away last summer.

But there is the old mantra in forecasting that if you repeat something often enough then it will be bound to happen in the end.

And to be fair to Mr. Sinclair, the gold positive scenario stacking up right now does look unstoppable.

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My Note: Sounds pretty darn close to my own predictions- Amazing! 

-jschulmansr

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Gold Battle Lines Drawn at $1000 – Again —Seeking Alpha

By: James West of Midas Letter

Here we go again. The forces of legitimate money versus the incumbent purveyors of the candy floss economy squared off at the $1,000 an ounce line over which yet another battle will be fought. Arrayed against either side are formidable new elements and tried and true old ones. As usual, the first volley has been catapulted over the walls of the hucksters by the defenders of the essential timeless truth of gold’s naturally stored value against the counterfeit paper currencies.

The liabilities of the enemy have increased, and the short positions in the COMEX market are sufficiently stacked that the big bank defenders simply cannot allow gold to win decisively. G7 governments are allied against gold to a man, while emerging economic behemoths China and Russia stand in opposition.

In particular, China’s revelations that it has been in a continuous accumulation mode for the last several years and is now the fifth largest sovereign reserve of gold has created an impetus in the gold camp that has been seen lacking in the past. Institutional and sovereign investment entities now perceive a floor in the gold price based on this information, and one must beg the question as to why China would make such a revelation when it threatens to undermine the value of its $2 trillion in U.S. debt holdings.

China has also been careful to avoid buying gold on the international market, for fear, it says, of creating a stampede into the precious metals that would immediately increase the cost of its stated intention to continue accumulating gold towards the backing of the yuan (renmibi) as a global reserve currency.

Yet that is precisely what has happened. Ostensibly, the justification for tipping their hand exists in the fact that they’ve resigned themselves to the fact that selling poison toys and pet foods to Americans in exchange for a currency that loses value like light into a black hole is an acceptable if imperfect transaction. With $50 billion a year in interest payments from the U.S., they can hedge the risk buy using it to buy gold.

With the perceived floor arguably at $850, downside risk is limited in gold far more so than in U.S. treasuries, which, if mainstream media is to be taken as remotely credible, is the current favorite of safe haven investors.

‘Safe Haven’ is about to get painted with same fragrant brush as ‘AAA-rated’ investments.

Goldbugs are salivating at the prospect of vindication, but seasoned veterans of the war know that the governments and central banks arrayed against gold are not fair fighters. Since the largest players in the futures market occupy both sides of the contract, and never take delivery of the physical gold, they can orchestrate a perpetual negative sentiment towards gold by driving the future price downward by simply amping up the short positions, thus making gold appear poised for a sell-off. This has been standard operating procedure for the last decade, and it is interesting to note that ever-bigger short positions are having less influence over shorter durations before the bulls shrug off the flimsy performance and take gold higher.

Critics and observers of this U.S. Dollar image management program point to the fact that such activity, while shoring up demand for U.S. Dollar debt in the short term, effectively undermines the entire global economy, and is among the fundamental causes of financial crises such as the housing collapse and the whole current global financial fiasco.

Proponents of this manipulation, who are increasingly legion in number, correctly predict an inevitable bursting of the damn catalyzed by investment demand overwhelming the short positions, forcing them to buy and cover to limit losses, which will, in itself, stimulate the gold price even further.

With the limited oversight and feeble reporting standards of the CFTC, the ploy is facilitated by complicit (or ignorant) regulators who ensure data is obfuscated and disclosure limited. It has been this collective effort on the part of the Dollar Defenders that continuously defeats gold’s advances, repeatedly castrating the bulls and sending them whimpering to lick their wounds and regroup.

But China is now leading the charge, and the bet is that they’re willing to forgo the lost value of their USD holdings to decisively undermine the global reserve currency once and for all and replace it with the Yuan, a move that would effectively mark the beginning in the shift of the global balance of power from west to east.

The United States, overextended militarily across the Middle East and Asia, with new fronts threatening to open in Iran and Pakistan, is perilously close to an international nervous breakdown. China’s opportunity is to ride to the rescue bearing smiles and steamed pork buns while dividing up what is left of the American industrial asset pool.

Our leadership of the last decade (or more accurately, absence thereof), eager to lubricate the workings of multinational financial interests, have inadvertently played into the patient hands of their biggest creditor by prostituting the national currency shamelessly to the point where every nation in the world can see what used up piece of spent jet trash the old USD has become.

While mainstream media dismisses the idea of the Yuan replacing the dollar as the international monetary standard, those of us who have tuned out at the perception management program on CNN recognize the event as halfway accomplished.

The truly explosive moment for gold will occur when the Chinese, at their discretion, decide to spring the trap, and abandon USD completely in favor of gold, suddenly spiking the price of gold straight north in tandem with the complete collapse of the U.S. dollar.

Don’t pay any attention to the second rate hacks trying to claim credit for predicting the fall…it’s been predicted repeatedly throughout history from Nostradamus to Roubini. Any student of economic history with 20/20 vision could see this coming, and here it is. “I told you so” is a waste of time. Who’s offering a solution?

Whether or not this particular battle at the Great Wall of $1,000 an ounce is the mother of all battles remains to be seen. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and while G7 governments collude to retain power, the unforeseeable is the greatest threat to gold.

That being said, veteran observers are optimistic, to say the least.

According to Bill Murphy, intrepid soldier of gold wars and standard bearer for the Gold Anti-trust Action Committee,

 

The Gold Cartel is giving it all they have no, as evidenced by the sharply rising gold open interest on the Comex … up some 23,000 contracts on Wednesday and Thursday. They are doing all they can to counter new spec buying.

My hunch is the next time we see $1,000, and that could be very soon, gold ought to take off from there, giving us more upside dynamic daily moves. The reasons to own physical gold are off the charts … HUGE investment demand, shrinking visible central bank supply (unrelated to the cabal), shrinking mine supply, shrinking dollar, concerns over sovereign wealth debt, a horrible US economy, and a US printing press that is going flat out and will have to for some time to come.

In my opinion, all gold has to do is to stay over $1,000 for a few days, and then all kinds of bells and whistles go off.

 

Bill is not the only one who thinks the breakthrough is at hand. Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com, himself a historically prescient oracle of market crashes agrees and warns that the stock market will be the first casualty of the new financial reality.

 

If you take a look at the dollar and the long bond, it looks as if they jumped off a cliff. This isn’t gold going up, it’s the dollar and bonds going down. When the market wakes up the stock market is going to take a giant dump. No more fake rally.

 

Investors by now should be well equipped to read the writing on the wall. Whether gold breaks through $1,000 and holds there, charts new territory at much higher levels, or is beaten back down through the offices of JP Morgan (JPM), HSBC (HBC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), is irrelevant.

Gold producer stocks are up, on average, over 22% this year in the Midas Model Portfolios, while intermediate producers and close-to-production juniors have piled on gains ranging from 20 to 200%, all since January this year.

You won’t hear anybody pointing that fact out on television, and you won’t hear that from your broker, in most cases. But the lesson is clear. Gold bullion is the place to be for wealth preservation, and gold producers and explorers is where risk capital is going to see utterly stupendous gains this year.

If you buy the hype of Wall Street and Washington and wade into the general equities markets, you have nobody to blame but yourself for the heavy losses you will surely sustain.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

 Gold vs Silver: There Is No Debate — Seeking Alpha

By: Market Sniper of We Just Trade

It is mildly amusing that when the precious metals markets are in confirmed uptrends, the perennial debate of whether it is best to own gold or silver always comes to the fore.

Both gold and silver, historically, have been money (merely utility in exchange). Gold in nature is approximately 15 times as scarce as silver. All the gold mined since the dawn of man, if molded into a cube, is said to fit inside a baseball diamond. Silver would nearly fill the stadium. China, now the world’s largest gold producer, had a silver standard as gold was more plentiful in China than silver, a bias that the west took full advantage of up through the 1870s. Silver imports by the Spanish Empire from their New World holdings were so large that it collapsed the European silver market. England, then on a bi-metalic standard, quickly switched to a pure gold standard. The Spanish Empire never recovered from the experience.

In the United States, the debate raged incessantly as to how the ratio would be “fixed” after the discovery of the Comstock Lode with western mining interests’ best known champion, Senator William Jennings Bryan, being the foremost proponent of a lower ratio. Seems it is an old debate. The good news is, you can own both. If/when the world returns to honest, stable money, you will need both: gold for the larger acquisitions and silver to make change.

While we await such an event, ratio trade the two metals to increase your holdings of precious metals.The ratio fluctuates wildly over time. In the 1970s and 1980s I used 28:1 and 40:1 as points that I would switch. At 40:1, I would be in silver. When the ratio dropped down to 28:1, I would exchange silver holdings for gold. Each time I switched, my stack of precious metals would increase in size even after dealing with the spread.

Find a precious metals dealer who will work with you on that. You maybe able to locate one that will only charge the spread on one of the metals and not both when you switch. Since then, the ratio has moved up. At one point it was even at 100:1. I now use 45:1 and 70:1 as switch points. See your tax accountant as to the benefits of such a program. Think 1031 Tax Deferred Exchange.

For those who do not want to break the rear axle of your automobile moving your silver when it comes time to switch, think about using ETFs that only reflect the price of the two metals. There are a variety of ways to accomplish this, from being in just one or the other to being long one and short the other. IF your objective is to accumulate the actual physical metals, do not use ETFs as a substitute for physical ownership. Rather, take profits from your switching trades and purchase the actual metals themselves. Gold vs. silver? No debate. Accumulate both.

Disclosure: long physical silver and gold

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A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

 ==================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.

Good Investing!–  jschulmansr

The Swan Dive- Next For Stocks?

Tags

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Well Mr. Obama said the same old, same old today and didn’t help the market at all… ANY of them! Mr. Obama what do you have against the market? I mean like your whole cabinet are all Good Ole Wall Street Boys!?! The Dow failed to maintain above 8000 today and that is a very bad sign or good depending which side of market you are on. It appears now the the intermediate wave (Elliott) is finished and stocks have climbed to the top of the diving platform. 1st attemp at a swan dive- difficulty easy. So wil it be a perfect 10 or a belly flop? Either Way the Dow is going down! My first target 7200-7500 and then a test of the 6500 level lows, (Called The “Bottom” recently). Gold and Precious Metals continue to consolidate getting ready to launch for a new test of $920, then $980, then the all time high. I think the news is going to be that bad and that dramatic. The Middle East is about to explode, N. Korea just threw out the inspectors, even the pirates are snubbing their noses at you Mr. Obama. So now the question is are you a man or a mouse? Squeak up! Copper is quietly having a nice rally, China is buying up all of our soybeans, and oil is getting ready to explode to the upside. Keep accumulating Gold and Precious Metals in any form, buy producers with production, you should jump into (DGP) with a little risk money too! In currencies my pick is the Aussie dollar, accumulate on dips because as Gold goes so will the Aussie Dollar. Good Investing! – jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

 

 

 

===================================================

My Note: I use these tools and they are great and they work! – jschulmansr

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

 

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

My Note: I use these tools and they are great and they work! – jschulmansr

 

 

===================================================

Pros Say: Sharp Market Pullback This Week – CNBC

Source: CNBC.com

Encouraging numbers from an investment banking giant dominated discussion among the pros, who tied them to massive government stimulus efforts — and doubted they would carry ahead to economic numbers, or even to results from other investment banks. 

Financials Show Surprising Strength; Consumers Still Look Weak

Scott Brown of Raymond James said there has been a real change in the attitudes and behavior of consumers, with fear now dominant. That is likely to be reflected in retail data this week, and there’s no likelihood that consumer spending will rebound any time soon.  (click to watch the video).

Stocks ended near their session lows Tuesday after a report showed retail sales unexpectedly dropped in March and as worries about banks simmered ahead of some key earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 137.63, or 1.7 percent, to close at 7,920.18. The S&P 500 lost 2 percent, while the Nasdaq skidded 1.7 percent.

 

Retail sales tumbled 1.1 percent

last month, a big disappointment as economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.3-percent increase. Excluding the volatile auto component, sales fell 0.9 percent. The two prior months were revised upward, offering some consolation, but the unexpected sharp drop rattled the market.

“The inescapable fact is that the U.S. consumer is faced with daunting fundamentals: Wage and salary income growth has evaporated, credit is very tight, home prices continue to decline … [which] makes it very likely that the U.S. consumer will remain a drag on economic activity in coming quarters,” MFR economist Joshua Shapiro wrote in a note to clients. “Fiscal stimulus will help to blunt this, but is unlikely to turn the tide completely.”

Markets are Overbought; Retail Numbers = Long Way to Go

Disappointing retail sales numbers in March, after two stronger-than-expected months, show the consumer has not turned the corner after all, and may “go back in his cocoon,” according to Art Cashin of UBS.  The market is overbought and vulnerable to a pullback — perhaps even a sharp pullback over the next three days — with option expiration built in.  He is hopeful we have set the lows for the cycle, although those lows may be tested, and he foresees a lot of “sideways churning for maybe months.

My Note: Unfortunately if sideways churning includes testing those lows then I absolutely agree if those lows hold. Unfortunately, I don’t think they will, can you say DOW 4500? – jschulmansr

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Oil and Gold to Figure Large This Week – Seeking Alpha

By: Brad Zigler of Hard Assets Investor

Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 7.9%

 

Easter Mondays leave Yanks more time to leisurely ponder the week’s trading prospects, as many global bourses are closed. We get to trade – and talk, as Linda Richman used to suggest – amongst ourselves.

Gold and oil naturally figure large in this week’s scenario. Particularly, oil over gold, if you’ve been listening to commodity maven Jim Rogers. Rogers thinks the International Monetary Fund [IMF] is a likely seller of some of its 3,200-ton metal stash, so he’s talking up black gold over yellow.

It’s not as if the world finds this surprising. Whether the IMF sales take place or not, the world’s been spoiling for a showdown between the two commodities.

Let’s look at oil first. The nearby crude contract gathered strength in its 50% retracement of the February-March rally, and is now poised to challenge the run-up’s $54.64 high.

Nearby NYMEX WTI Crude

True, near-term fundamentals still indicate oversupply. The re-growth in the contango tells you that. The quarterly carry trade was pinched to 80 cents a barrel a month ago; now it’s in the $4-5 range. If you’ve got a carrying charge market, you’ve got commodity enough to carry into future deliveries.

No, this has been a rally built more on expectations of improving economic prospects – hand-in-hand with the equity market rally – than on a supply retraction. Oil inventories at the Cushing, Okla., terminus may be down from their peak, but supplies in other regions have ballooned to more than compensate for the off-take.

Now, about gold …

Momentum and sentiment have turned sour for the yellow metal. But you probably suspected that, right? The recent 30,000-contract downdraft in COMEX open interest was led mostly by fund sellers. Net long positions held by large speculators tumbled more than 18% last week.

COMEX Nearby Gold

Technically, gold’s very vulnerable. Pushed to test its 100-day moving average on the downside and weighed down by overhead resistance at the $888 level – formerly support for the February-March topping action – the nearby market’s squeezed. Gold spreads (as mentioned in “Another ‘Make It Or Break It’ Hurdle For Gold“) indicate plenty of liquidity in the lease market. Supply’s not the issue for gold either. At least not yet.

Oil’s technical strength over gold is readily apparent in the gold/oil ratio. A rising ratio, meaning gold’s price is gaining on oil’s, is indicative of poorer economic conditions to come. A decline, not surprising, signals the market’s forecast of better prospects. The ratio’s been testing the 17-to-1 level over the past couple of weeks. An oil breakout could put this indicator on course to look for support at the 15-to-1 level.

Gold/Oil Ratio

It seems traders are essentially anticipating a reflation trade by making one of the primary engines of inflation, oil, their target rather than gold, inflation’s classic beneficiary.

This should be an interesting week.

===================================================

My Note: Brad you need to remember this time the Miner’s have started to begin the rally not the bullion market. When that happens Gold always rises. But with the producer’s/miner’s leading we will have a much stronger and deeper rally this time, I’m looking for $1200 – $1500 by year’s end! Have a Great Evening, don’t forget tomorrow is National Tea Party Day! – jschulmansr

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Emergency Broadcast- Wake Up! It is Almost Too Late!

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We are watching history unfold before our very eyes while being skillfully manipulated, distracted, and kept in the dark. This special edition has video’s, articles, and proof that we are being played for suckers and fools. “They” think if the can keep us hypnotized and asleep that they will succeed. What is needed today is a new generation of Paul Revere’s to sound the alarm for Americans. We have been invaded and are losing the war without so much as a whimper! NOW right now is the time to stop being Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, now is the time to UNITE AS AMERICANS! WE NEED TO KEEP AMERICA FREE AND WE NEED TO START NOW! IT IS ALREADY ALMOST TOO LATE!

***PLEASE*** Do your own research and find out for yourself… Google Search the terms”New World Order”, “TriLateral Commission”, “Council on Foreign Relations”, and “Bildenberger’s” find out how many highly respected people are finally starting to warn you about this sinister and outright grab for world domination! After you finish this post, please pass/send the link to this post onto as many people as you can… before it is too late! -jschulmansr

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This was sent to me by Peter Grandich

Peter Grandich was the founder and managing member of Grandich Publications which published The Grandich Letter since 1984. His commentary on the mining and metals markets have been read by tens of thousands of subscribers and relied upon by major financial media around the world.

Here is his Latest Blog Post

Grandich Opens The Closet Door Again – Agoracom

By: Peter Grandich

When I came out of the closet, I made it known I would do more than just comment about markets here. I knew some would not like it then and I know some will not like it now.

From time to time during my 25 years in and around the financial industry, I would come across an individual or group who would preach about “A New World Order” or something to that effect. I found most of these people either “out in left field” or had an agenda to sell products and services to go along with their “views”. However in recent times, I’ve come across some very intelligent people and groups who have demonstrated to me they were neither kooks nor salesmen. Their thoughts and opinions were both logical and reasonable.

After watching and listening to what has unfolded at the G-20 this past week and what’s been evolving in Washington and throughout the United States, I no longer wonder is something along the lines of a “New World Order” possible, but rather how far long are we to one?

This is not a kook’s only video.

As an American, I’m extremely concern we’re losing (or already lost) what made this country once great. I believe our President and me see things much differently. I find what this gentleman portrayed in this video to be of keen interest to me and what I believe this country must do before it’s too late.

Finally, I’ve had more discussions with various people about what we can do if we’re truly entering a tribulation or a way of life totally different then our past generations. I tell them I worry too but then I try to remember this and to realize the battle may be near but the outcome has already been determined.

“Jesus said, I have told you these things so that in me you may have peace. In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world.”    John 16:33

Have a most blessed Holy Week!

Here is the Video…

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Next Comes From Alex Jones of Prison Planet.com

The Obama Deception HQ Full length version- You Tube

Source: You Tube

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This is From Bloomberg Financial News:

G-20 To Shapes New World Order With Lesser Role For U.S., Markets – Bloomberg.com

By Rich Miller and Simon Kennedy

April 3 (Bloomberg) — Global leaders took their biggest steps yet toward a new world order that’s less U.S.-centric with a more heavily regulated financial industry and a greater role for international institutions and emerging markets.

At the end of a summit in London, policy makers from the Group of 20 yesterday delivered a regulatory blueprint that French President Nicholas Sarkozy said turned the page on the Anglo-Saxon model of free markets by placing stricter limits on hedge funds and other financiers. The leaders also pledged to triple the resources of the International Monetary Fund and to hand China and other developing economies a greater say in the management of the world economy.

“It’s the passing of an era,” said Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International, who helped prepare summits for presidents Gerald R. Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. “The U.S. is becoming less dominant while other nations are gaining influence.”

A lot was at stake. If the leaders had failed to forge a consensus — Sarkozy this week threatened to quit the talks if they didn’t back much tighter regulation — it might have set back the world’s economy and markets just as they’re showing signs of shaking off the worst financial crisis in six decades.

That’s what happened in 1933, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt torpedoed a similar conference in London by rejecting its plan to stabilize currency rates and in the process scotched international efforts to lift the world out of a depression.

More Conciliation

Seeking to avoid a repeat of that historic flop, President Barack Obama junked the at-times go-it-alone approach of his predecessor, George W. Bush, and adopted a more conciliatory stance toward his fellow leaders.

“In a world that is as complex as it is, it is very important for us to be able to forge partnerships as opposed to simply dictating solutions,” Obama told a press conference at the conclusion of the summit.

Stock markets rose in response to the steps taken by the G-20 leaders. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 2.9 percent to 834.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 216.48 points, or 2.8 percent, to 7,978.08. Both closed at their highest levels since the second week of February.

In an effort to promote harmony, Obama soft-pedaled earlier U.S. demands that the summit agree on a specific target for fiscal stimulus in the face of opposition from France and Germany. Instead, he settled for a vague pledge that the leaders would do whatever it takes to revive the global economy.

Repudiation of Past

The president also signed on to a communiqué that Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said repudiated the previous U.S.-led push to free capitalism from the constraints of governments.(See My Post From Yesterday For Actual Article)

“This is a major step forward and a reversal of the ideology of the 1990s, and at a very official level, a rejection of the ideas pushed by the U.S. and others,” said Stiglitz, an economics professor at Columbia University. “It’s a historic moment when the world came together and said we were wrong to push deregulation.”

In bowing to that view, the leaders conceded in a statement that “major failures” in regulation had been “fundamental causes” of the market turmoil they are trying to tackle. To make amends and to try to avoid a repeat of the crisis, they pledged to impose stronger restraints on hedge funds, credit rating companies, risk-taking and executive pay.

“Countries that used to defend deregulation at any cost are recognizing that there needs to be a larger state presence so this crisis never happens again,” said Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

Financial Stability Board

A new Financial Stability Board will be established to unite regulators and join the IMF in providing early warnings of potential threats. Once the economy recovers, work will begin on new rules aimed at avoiding excessive leverage and forcing banks to put more money aside during good times.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had unsuccessfully sought to convince the U.S. and Britain to sign on to similar steps before the crisis began in mid-2007, hailed the communiqué as a “victory for common sense.”

The U.S. did, though, take the lead in getting the summit to agree on an increase in IMF rescue funds to $750 billion from $250 billion now. Japan, the European Union and China will provide the first $250 billion of the increase, with the balance to come from as yet unidentified countries.

“This will provide the IMF with enough resources to meet the needs of East European nations and also provide back-up funding to a broader set of countries,” said Brad Setser, a former U.S. Treasury official who’s now at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

IMF Allocation

The G-20 also agreed to an allocation of $250 billion in Special Drawing Rights, the artificial currency that the IMF uses to settle accounts among its member nations. The move is akin to a central bank such as the Federal Reserve effectively creating money out of thin air, except it’s on a global scale.

The increase in Special Drawing Rights will allow countries to tap IMF money without having to accept changes to economic policies often demanded as a condition of aid. The cash is disbursed in proportion to the money each member-nation pays into the fund. Rich nations will be allowed to divert their allocations to countries in greater need.

The G-20 said they would couple the financing moves with steps to give emerging economic powerhouses such as China, India and Brazil a greater say in how the IMF is run.

Emerging Markets Benefit

Citigroup Inc. economists Don Hanna and Jurgen Michels called the summit agreement “a boon to emerging markets” in a note to clients yesterday.

Mexico said Wednesday it will seek $47 billion from the IMF under the Washington-based lender’s new Flexible Credit Line, which allows some countries to borrow money with no conditions.

Emerging-market stocks, bonds and currencies rallied yesterday on speculation other developing nations will follow Mexico’s lead. Gains in Polish, Czech and Brazilian stocks helped push the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 5.6 percent to 613.07, the highest since Oct. 15.

In a bid to avoid another mistake of the depression era, G-20 leaders repeated an earlier pledge to avoid trade protectionism and beggar-thy-neighbor policies that could aggravate the decline in the global economy.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted this week that global trade will shrink 13 percent this year as loss-ridden banks cut back on credit to exporters and importers.

Trade Finance

To help combat that, the G-20 said they will make at least $250 billion available in the next two years to support the finance of trade through export credit agencies and development banks such as the World Bank.

The summit took place amid speculation among investors that the deepest global recession in six decades may be abating. Data released yesterday showed orders placed with U.S. factories rose in February for the first time in seven months, U.K. house prices unexpectedly gained in March and Chinese manufacturing increased. Still, a report today is forecast to show U.S. unemployment at its highest in a quarter-century.

“If the economy turns more favorable, this meeting will probably be viewed as a milestone,” said C. Fred Bergsten, a former U.S. official and director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

The G-20 members are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the U.S., the U.K. and the European Union. Officials from Spain and the Netherlands were also present.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rich Miller in Washington rmiller28@bloomberg.net; Simon Kennedy in Paris at Skennedy4@bloomberg.net

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G20 ushers in a ‘new world order’- Globe and Mail

BOLD STEPS 8 Leaders shift from U.S. model of freewheeling finance, forming historic accord to regulate risk UNITED FRONT 8 Countries pledge $1-trillion in aid for struggling nations, but economists blast lack of new stimulus

ERIC REGULY AND BRIAN LAGHI

April 3, 2009

LONDON — The leaders of the Group-of-20 countries put on a show of unity yesterday to fight the global recession with pledges of more than $1-trillion (U.S.) in aid to help struggling countries and revive trade.

But their failure to unveil new stimulus spending was criticized as a “disappointment” by economists, who fear the global downturn will only deepen unless governments everywhere open the stimulus spigots even further.

The G20 countries also agreed to rein in the world’s financial system through the creation of international accounting standards, the regulation of debt-ratings agencies and hedge funds, a clampdown on tax havens and controls on executive pay. But the lack of details on these proposals suggests they will not become effective any time soon.

U.S. President Barack Obama, who had been calling for more stimulus spending, nonetheless welcomed the communiqué.

“The steps that have been taken are critical to preventing us sliding into a depression,” Mr. Obama told reporters after the close of the G20 gathering. “They are bolder and more rapid than any international response that we’ve seen to a financial crisis in memory.”

Characterizing the agreement as historic, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the summit’s host, said the agreement ushered in a new period of international co-operation while ending the era of the Washington consensus, a term from the late 1980s that has come to be equated with market fundamentalism.

“Today we have reached a new consensus that we take global action together to deal with problems that we face, that we will do what is necessary to restore growth,” he said.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper joined fellow leaders in the praise, saying new regulations will help the market work better. “The declaration is very clear that globalization, that open markets, that liberalized trade remain the essential base of our economic system and will be the basis of any recovery and future economic growth,” he said.

The agreement was the object of last-minute negotiations, and overcame the initial objections of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who at one point threatened to leave the meeting if it did not agree with his position on stricter regulation of the financial world.

Ms. Merkel said she was pleased the group came to a broad agreement after such a short period of time. “We now have been able to rally around a message of unity,” she told a news conference.

Mr. Sarkozy said his alliance with Ms. Merkel worked well.

“We would never have hoped to get so much,” he said.

Yesterday’s agreement calls for the creation of a Financial Stability Board, which is designed to work with the International Monetary Fund to provide early warning of financial risks and the actions needed to reduce them. The agreement says the countries will take action against tax havens by slapping sanctions against offending nations. “The era of banking secrecy is over,” the communiqué said.

The $1-trillion-plus in emergency aid is anchored by a commitment to add $500-billion to the resources of the IMF, taking it to $750-billion, a level that should give it enough firepower to extend bailout loans to the hardest-hit countries. Of this amount, $100-billion will come from the European Union, $100-billion from Japan and $40-billion from China.

Another $250-billion will be given to the IMF to support special drawing rights, the organization’s own “basket” currency that can be used to boost global liquidity. Trade finance will be supported with $250-billion channelled through the World Bank and export agencies, though almost none of that amount has been committed yet. The IMF has also agreed to sell gold reserves to provide as much as $50-billion in aid to the poorest countries.

The G20’s IMF measures were more aggressive than expected and helped lift the world’s markets. Commodities such as oil and metals rose as traders evidently took the view that global growth would revive more quickly than they had expected. News of possible U.S. accounting changes of the mark-to-market rules, used to value assets, helped to trigger a bank rally.

“What is most encouraging for the G20 leaders summit in London today is the building evidence that the Lehman-related collapse in global demand seems to be coming to an end,” Derek Halpenny, the head of currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London said in a report yesterday.

The communiqué also called on countries to resist protectionist measures.

The regulatory changes agreed by the G20 countries are sweeping, but lacked detail about their scope and implementation, whether or not they could be enforced globally or nationally.

Mr. Brown said that hedge funds, whose failure can trigger a domino effect in the financial-services industry, would be subject to greater regulation and oversight. Pay and bonuses will have to adhere to “sustainable” compensation schemes.

“There will be no more rewards for failure,” Mr. Brown said.

The leaders, emboldened by the recent progress in prying open tax havens, said sanctions will be slapped on any sponsor country that refuses to sign international agreements to exchange tax information.

Mr. Brown said another G20 summit will take place late this year – city to be determined – to review the measures unveiled yesterday and at previous summits

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Finally From Jim Sinclair

More of The Exact Same- JSMinset.com

My Dear Friends,

All that has changed is more of what caused this problem in the first place. You are being lied to yet again.

1. Gold is your lifeline, nothing else. I assure you of this.

2. When reality hits, as it will, it will be too late to seek a lifeline.

3. If you let go of your lifeline you have put more into harm’s way than just an investment or a portfolio item.

4. In the final analysis gold and the dollar are inverse to each other.

5. The dollar is only considered a lifeline when viewed from the intoxicants of spin.

6. Gold is a currency.

7. Gold currency is the monetary unit of last resort. Reality is that we all will require a last resort.

8. The G20 was not an intervention that can stop a downward spiral because it produced more of the stuff that caused the disaster in the first place, monetary inflation. 9. Monetary inflation is what the downward spiral is made of.

10. Be logical.

11. Stop being emotional.

12. Anything you can stare down, you can overcome. Stare down your foolish emotions and adhere to reason.

The following is hot air and fabrication. There is no new world. All that has occurred is the plan to create USD $1 Trillion in new monetary inflation. The G20 was all PR that produced more of what has caused the disaster in the first place, another one trillion in monetary inflation that has no means of being withdrawn ever from the international system.

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market

Find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

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My Note: Protect Yourself, Help Claim America Back. Do your research on what is really going on try these searches in Google NWO- New World Order, CFR- Council On Foreign Relations, Bildenberger’s. Judge for yourself especially in light of what you watched in the videos. Buy Gold, and then take action to save our country! -jschulmansr

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Is The Party Over For Stocks? Part 2

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Today was another example of hope and a prayer in the stock markets. Since the other day when we gapped down more of the “sheeple” jumped back into the market thinking, no hoping beyond hope that the “bottom” is in place. Today’s action on the charts was simply backfilling the gap from yesterday’s drop. Based on pure technical analysis this is what I see for tomorrow, we will have an attempt at breaking 7650 and if that is cleared then an attempt at 7700 on the down side 7560 if that is broken 7500 and if that goes then down to 7380. On a chart basis I’d say we have a lot more chance of an overall down day than up day. Of course this is all pedicated on no news coming out from G-20, Europe, or elsewhere. – Tomorrow we will have Part 3 of “Is The Party Over for Stocks?”. – Good Investing! – Jschulmansr

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Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:  Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

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What Marks The Bottom? – Seeking Alpha

By: Kevin S. Price of  Interlake Capital

We’ve touched on this topic before, but with calls of “the bottom is in!” reverberating across Wall Street, we thought it might be time to revisit it.

What are the markers of durable troughs, often referred to as “bottoms,” in asset values?

There’s no failsafe sign, of course, and there’s no guarantee that this process will play out as its historical predecessors have. But if we could point to a single factor common to most long-term bottoms, it’s a sequence in which traders and investors move from hope to revulsion to indifference.

First you’ll hear expressions of hope that the bottom is in. We’ve certainly heard plenty of that over the last three weeks or so as stocks have lurched up from their March 9^th lows.

Then you’ll hear expressions of revulsion against stocks, including the idea that investors might be better off avoiding them altogether in favor of “safer” assets such as bonds. As it happens, we saw just such an argument a few days ago from a well-known, highly-regarded analyst. Far from discouraging for equity investors, this is a sign that the revulsion stage is underway.

Ultimately, however, what we need to see is a grinding sense of indifference toward stocks. Partly reflected and partly driven by the media, investors will develop a sense that stocks just aren’t worth the effort. They’ll neither love ’em nor hate ’em. They’ll simply stop talking about them altogether. Under those circumstances, neither buyers nor sellers will have the itchy trigger fingers they’ve had over the last few months, and the buying and selling will happen quietly, off the front pages. Only then, we think, will the foundation be set for the next major bull run in equity values.

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Why This Is Just Another Bear Market Rally -Seeking Alpha

By: Vinay Ayala of Bullish Bankers

The equity market has taken a turn for the better in the past couple of weeks, reversing losses for many investors who have ridden this market down. It has been a welcome change for investors as we bounce off lows and are beginning to put some faith behind equities again. The million dollar question: is this the turnaround we have all been looking for, or is this just another bear market rally?

In my opinion, this is just another bear market rally. Rallies of 5%+ in one day do not occur during bull markets, but they are very typical of bear markets and normally occur during bear market rallies. What has really changed fundamentally over the past few weeks in the macro-economy? To tell you the truth, not much.

It is my opinion that three things need to get better before we can consider ourselves to be out of this crisis: an improvement in the employment picture, more stable credit markets, and a somewhat stable housing market. Let’s look at how these criteria have changed over the past few weeks.

1. Employment – Currently the unemployment rate stands at 8.1%, with estimates for the March unemployment number to be somewhere around 8.6%. Initial jobless claims went up for the week ending March 21st by 8,000, with a total of 5.56 million filing for continuing unemployment claims. These are still at 25+ year lows and have shown no sign of improving throughout this whole rally. Everyone is still expecting possible double digit unemployment, which will wreak havoc on consumer spending, since individuals will have no steady source of income. This could also lead to more and more defaults on loans, mortgages, and credit card payments; further deteriorating the state of the financial sector.
2. Housing – The housing market has yet to reach a bottom! New home sales were up 4.7% in February, so a bottom must have been reached, right? Wrong. Housing prices fell 2.9 percent and inventories are still at extremely elevated levels at a 12.2 months supply. In a normal housing market there is only about 6 months of supply in the system, so for those that don’t think that housing can get worse, it can. There are still more sellers than buyers in the market. Home prices are down about 28% since the peak according to the Case-Shiller Index, but this number faces some more serious downward pressure as sellers are going to have to compromise to bring the market closer to equilibrium in order to reduce inventories. So unless we see a huge drop in prices in a very short amount of time, I am not ready to say that the housing market has bottomed. Until the housing market reaches equilibrium, I do not think we can see an economic recovery because of all the ties it has to other aspects of the economy, like credit.
3. Credit – Conditions in the credit markets have not really improved throughout the rally. I think if there is one thing everyone has been adamant about, it is trying to revive the lending markets so that the economy can get going again. Companies need debt to fulfill short term working capital needs, and having access to liquid credit markets is essential for day to day operations. Since the beginning of March, the TED spread (the difference between the 3 month treasury note and 3 month LIBOR rate), which highlights credit risk within the lending markets, has gone up by almost 10%. This is indicating continued weakness in the short term credit markets, which must be corrected before we can see any type of recovery within the financial system.

Looking at the above factors it is clear that it has not been a broad based rally where we are seeing recovery in some of the most depressed asset classes, credit and housing. The fundamentals of the macro-economy have not gotten better and this really makes me doubt the sustainability of this rally, considering that unemployment is skyrocketing, the housing market is still in free-fall, and the credit markets have not had any marked improvement. Couple this with an increasing savings rate, a $13 trillion loss in household balance sheets (with another $6 trillion loss probably in 1Q09), the highest inventory-to-sales ratio (at about 1.8) and $1 trillion in excess capacity in the economy, we are likely going to see decreased consumer spending going forward. This is going to be the worst part of the recession for the consumer and the recovery still seems a few months away from a fundamental level.

All that being said, one thing that could keep the rally going is corporate earnings. As earnings season approaches in April, it should help paint a better picture of what we can expect going forward for the economy and the stock market. Hopefully earnings come in better than expected, but I am not convinced yet.

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My Note: The current rally is a great big “Bear Trap” “Sheeple Beware! – More Tomorrow- jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. – jschulmansr