Ahh!… Euphoria – The Sweet Smell of Recovery???

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Ahh the sweet smell of recovery! It’s “official Bernanke said so and so did MSNBC. I don’t think we are anywhere close to being out of the woods yet. To many shoes still dropping. Mortgage Resets, Commercial Real Estate, the number of banks failing each month, and the U.S. Dollar; just to name a few. Oops, can’t forget Inflation, oops hyper-inflation. Hey, we haven’t even gotten to the world political climate; i.e. Iran, N. Korea, Israel, and Afghanistan; to name a few more. Where are the contrarians? What happened to astute investing? When is Geitner going to turn off the printing press? When is China going to fire back in the trade war and just say no to one of the next treasury auctions? If that happened for 1-2 auctions how do you think the market will react? Personally, I think we are dead in the eye of the hurricane of economic malestrom. I remember reading early this year this is the exact blueprint of the Bilderberger Plan, allow the stock market to get to pre-crash levels, suck in all the investors back into the market and then pull the plug. I am not wearing a tin foil hat either… research this out for yourself (Google Bilderberger’s and another good source is Alex Jones Infowar site.) I also find it very interesting no news from the latest G-20 meeting. Plus the BRIC countries are very silent, can you imagine if China convinced those countries to side with them in a trade war? Don’t get me wrong I want to be out of the recession too. However, when everyone is saying Buy, it is usually the time to Sell. I think the DJI still has more room 9750 is the first major resistance, next 9850, and then no man’s land at 10,000 and above. I don’t think we will quite get there (DJI 10,000), but since we are in the head building phase of the head and shoulders formation on the charts it could conceivably happen. So since there are some good stocks still out there, due due diligence, keep your stops tight within 10-18%. I know I would rather take 60-80% off the table in profits than ride the elevator back down.

Gold for the 3rd day has held above $1000, it doesn’t surprise me. Okay we now have support at $998-$1000 for gold. The first resistance is te $1011 double top, when that falls, next stop $1020, and then the assault on the all time high of $1033. Silver already is at it’s high for the year and the sky is the limit. First of all with the euphoria over the “recession is over gang” will mean a perceived and partially real rnewed industrial demand for both Silver and Copper too.. However, when Gold takes out it’s all time high, I think there will be a massive influx of money into Silver the “Poor Man’s Gold”. Silver at $25oz before the end of the year and Gold at $1250- $1325.  I have been accumulating both and also own the core major Silver and Gold producers. I have have mid-tier and junior producers and a few good ‘explorer’s too! This is not to “toot my horn”, but to implore you to join me. Get in now, and hang on for the ride of your life! Great Investing! – jschulmansr

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• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

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Wednesday Outlook: No Speed Bumps in Sight? – Seeking Alpha

By: David Fry of ETF Digest

September 15, 2009

NO SPEED BUMPS IN SIGHT?

This rally has only modest volume (although more today) and positive major news remains thin but always “better than expected” (Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Survey). But, hey, Bernanke postulates that the recession is “likely over.” Now, who the hell knew that?! Geithner was more equivocal in his comments saying a “true recovery still has a ways to go.” Well, okay, let’s just say things are better than before.

Volume increased on an up day for a change but some of this is misleading given one glance at the late day trading on the 5 minute SPY chart. Breadth however was positive but not overwhelmingly so.

click to enlarge

“Today is the last trading day for VIX SEPT options, with the cash settlement price disseminated tomorrow morning off the CBOE SPX option volatility calculation. The open interest in the SEPT 25 puts is a staggering 188k, watch for the underlying to lift higher and migrate to this strike during the course of the trading session. Dealers are long this strike due to a series of put butterflies (SEPT 22.5,25,27.5) purchased by customers the past 10 days.” This per our friend, Scott Larison, Managing Director, Options Sales and Strategy, Forefront Advisory in New York.

Retail Sales were “better than expected” causing true believers in Chucky, the Consumer you can’t kill, to go on another shopping spree. You were out there shopping right?

We have quad-witching ahead and some of today’s action is no doubt linked to getting out of the way and manipulation with options and futures. This evening expiring September S&P futures are down a lot with rollover to December no doubt occurring. These are the types of the things that HAL 9000s live on.

There’s plenty of momentum for bulls and there are times this does seem unstoppable. Funny thing, sometimes this is just when things get upended.

One thing markets like is Washington gridlock and the most overexposed president in history is helping with it. He might do a little better if he gave us and his teleprompter a break. That’s just my opinion.

Let’s see what happens.

You can follow ETF Digest on twitter here.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in XLB, XLI, IYR, IEF, TLT, UDN, GLD, DBC, XLE, EWJ, EWZ, EWC and RSX.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

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– Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox. Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

Click Here For Your Free Analysis

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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It’s Jiffy Pop Time! Gold and Stock Markets Weekly Wrap Up

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It’s Jiffy Pop Time and the Gold market is just starting to pop, pop, pop. The heat is being generated by the whirring printing presses at the U.S. Treasury; which are running full steam ahead, unabated, and with no prospect of turning them off. This forms the stove with Inflation, (soon to be Hyper-Inflation) are the burners, blazing red hot. Extra energy is coming from the falling dollar and rising prices/Inflation regardless of what the manipulated Government reports may say. True Inflation right now is approximately 18%+. The tin foil on the Jiffy Pop is starting to rise and Gold has closed today at an 18 month high. We are moving out of the deflation stage and into the inflation stage, if Bernanke is truly dedicated to saving the U.S. economy the he need to tell Geitner to turn off the presses now. We have already doubled, no almost tripled the amount of dollars in circulation now; just in the last 8 months.

The popping is growing louder and mmm- the smell of fresh popped Jiffy Pop Popcorn. The heat is high and I hope you are on the right side of the markets- especially Gold and Precious Metals and in Stocks. For Gold in the coming week I fully expect we will take out the $1033 high. I would not be upset if we built a base down here around $1000 –  $1015 during the next few days and closing out next week at $1025 – $1040. This thrust will take us up to $1075- $1100 Then a retracement to back to $1025-$1033 before taking out $1100; and then getting to $1250 – $1300 by the end of the year. We will see a futile attempt to prop up the U.S. Dollar but there is nothing they can do short of raising Interest rates which will sink the fledgling recovery. Oil wil come back and take out first $75 a barrel and then $100 a barrel by the end of the year.

On stocks, I made a mistake on the wave/formation pattern, I still feel we are in the process of creating a head and shoulders top, the exception is that we are still forming the head. I think we will top out the head at DJI 9750- 9800. From there it will be a vicious drop off the cliff preceded by a short right shoulder buildup. I think the big crash is going to occur very soon in the next few weeks. Keep your stops very tight and get ready to play the downside.

I initiated two positions Thurs late afternoon, I bought (DGP) at 2245 and I sold (DGZ) at $22.60. I am getting ready to buy Dec call options for (GLD) and (RGLD) on Monday. You can follow my trades on twitter right after I initiate them.

Have a Great Investing Day! –

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Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

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Four Keys To Gold’s Next Move – Seeking Alpha

By Jeffrey Nichols of Nichols On Gold

Gold may have moved too high too soon . . . but whether or not the metal manages to recoup and hold onto recent gains near or above the $1000 an ounce level in the days immediately ahead . . . we are nevertheless looking for new highs (above $1032) in the closing months of the year with gold possibly at $1200 or $1300 before the New Year.

Key One: India

I’ve just returned from India, one of the most crucial markets for gold with a long history and big appetite for the yellow metal. What happens next for gold may depend most on the strength — or weakness — of Indian buying. And, Indian buying is both price sensitive and in sync with various holidays, festivals, and the wedding seasons.

With current rupee-denominated prices near historic highs, many are waiting either for a correction or evidence of staying power before returning to the market for new purchases. And while festival and wedding-related buying is expected later this month, the two-week period up to September 19th is considered inauspicious for gold purchases and many potential buyers will wait until later in the month.

If gold can remain near $1000 for the next week or two, giving Indians a sense of confidence that the price is not about to retreat, we can imagine stronger buying interest sufficient to get the price moving toward its previous historic peak and beyond into uncharted territory.

Key Two: China

Official — but unreported — buying on behalf of the central bank and possibly the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corporation, is being joined by growing private-sector demand for both investment bars and jewelry.

Press reports suggest that the Chinese government has adopted a new — more positive — attitude toward private-sector buying of both gold and silver. With China now the number one gold-mining country, it is in their interest to see a higher gold price as long as demand can be satisfied by domestic mine production and scrap reflows. Additionally, it has been suggested that the new pro-gold policy is intended to channel speculative funds away from real estate and equity investments.

The recently announced agreement for the People’s Bank of China to purchase from the International Monetary Fund about $50 billion in SDR-denominated, IMF-issued interest-bearing securities has also contributed to the latest round of dollar selling . . . and, to the extent that dollar weakness is a plus for gold, this has also supported the early September gold rally.

Key Three: Barrick

Barrick Gold’s (ABX) smart move to buy back its gold hedge position provided a temporary booster shot that helped propel the yellow metal through the $1000 an ounce barrier.

If I remember correctly, as of midyear, Barrick — the world’s largest gold-mine producer — had about 168 tons of gold outstanding on its hedge book . . . and would have to buy back this quantity to regain full exposure to future gold-price moves.

Anticipating an announcement effect, Barrick most likely accelerated its gold repurchase program in the days leading up to the September 7th announcement and probably paused to let the market recover from the news and prices to back off a bit before it resumes its repurchase program. With another tranche still to be repurchased in the months ahead, I expect Barrick to buy into price weakness, helping to underpin the price at moments of weakness.

Key Four: Monetary Factors

Of course, clients and readers of NicholsOnGold know that we think U.S. monetary policy and money supply growth are the primary determinants of U.S. price inflation, U.S. dollar performance, and the future price of gold. Last weekend’s communique from the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors was a reminder that monetary stimulus is likely to stay for some time. This — along with last week’s report from the United Nations critical of the U.S. dollar’s roll as a global reserve asset — has pushed the dollar lower in foreign-exchange markets to the benefit of gold.

If you haven’t already read the full text of my speech to the 6th Annual India International Gold Convention in Goa, India last week, I suggest you take a look for more about gold’s supply/demand situation, important changes in central bank gold policies, and implications of U.S. monetary policy.

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How to Trade Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Gold ETF Funds – Seeking Alpha

By: Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy

How to trade hot commodities like natural gas, oil and gold? We should see big moves in the coming weeks as gas bottoms, and oil and gold breakout or breakdown. A lot of money is going to be exchanging hands quickly and the key is to be on the receiving end of things. Below are some charts showing where these commodities are trading.

How to Trade Gold – Weekly Chart

How I trade gold is relatively straight forward. I use a simple trading model which allows me to identify the down side risk for a potential gold trade. I also use the same model for trading oil, gas and silver.

Beyond finding good entry points, it is crucial to know when to take some profits off the table. The weekly gold chart clearly shows gold trading at a resistance level which means there are going to be more sellers than buyers, hence the reason it is called resistance.

To trade gold I enter with my low risk entry points and sell half my position once I reach a resistance level. Thursday for example gold moved up into this long term resistance level and then started to head south. We took some profits off the table before gold dipped in the late afternoon for a healthy gain. Taking profits is a must or you’ll simply hold onto winning positions until they eventually turn into a loser.

How to Trade Crude Oil – Weekly Chart

Trading crude oil is exciting because it moves much faster than gold. How to trade crude oil with low risk can be done by using my simple trading model which is a combination of indicators like momentum, support & resistance, volume, price patterns and media coverage. All these things combined allow for highly accurate trades with minimal down side risk.

Crude oil looks ready to make a big move. The odds are pointing to higher prices because oil has a multi month bullish price action and the falling US dollar helps increase the price of oil. I can see oil breakout and rally into the $95 per barrel level if things go that way in the coming weeks.

How to Trade Oil (USO Fund) – Weekly Chart

USO tracks similarly to the price of crude oil and it provides some great trades for both swing traders and day traders. I focus on trades that bounce off support with low downside risks, which occur on both the daily and weekly charts.

How to Trade Natural Gas – Weekly Chart

Natural gas is looking ready to bottom here. If you go back to the early 90’s the $2-3 range is a major support level. While I don’t generally try to pick bottoms, there are some signature price patterns and volume patterns that have proven to be very profitable for catching sharp bounces.

How to Trade Natural Gas – Daily Chart

The daily chart shows a perfect waterfall sell off with the price of natural gas dropping to a long term support level. This pattern combination shows panic selling which indicates a short term bottom is close.

The extreme panic selling and sharp decline in price, removes much of the down side risk. Scaling into a position over a few days, if the price continues to move lower, is important for this strategy to work its magic.

The black horizontal lines show my resistance levels for taking profits. If the price were to drop below $10 then I would exit the second half of the position to lock in the rest of the profit.

How to Trade Commodities Conclusion:

Trading commodities is very simple with all the ETFs and funds available. The energy funds like oil and gas have some issues with following the prices of their underlying commodity but I do not find it a problem with my style of trading.

I would really like to know the entire story about what is going on with the oil and nat gas funds which have crazy contango issues. Why do other commodity funds like GLD (gold bullion) and SLV (silver bullion) not have these issues? Why can’t they make a fund which follows oil and gas properly? All I know is that there are a lot of dishonest people in the financial industry taking honest hard working peoples’ money.

Visit The Gold and Oil Guy

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(9-11 Postscript): I salute the fallen hero’s of 9-11 – we will not forget you! Our prayers are still with the families of the fallen and the survivors. We will never forget…

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I will be starting regular daily posts next week especially since the markets are heating up- Like I said it’s “Jiffy Pop” time! – Have a great weekend-jschulmansr

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Whoa! Was I Right or What!?!

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Look at Gold go! I have been telling, no pleading with you to get on board the Gold train for the last 2 months or longer. Hope you hopped aboard. Now Gold is at a key testing point. If we can successfully close above, and hold above $1000 then we definitely will be off to setting a new all time high for Gold. What will happen this time is that we will see a concentrated efforts by the Big 3 Shorts to push Gold down back to at least $950. If that does happen do not be alarmed, Gold will come roaring back. We will see Gold at $1250 to $1325 by the end of the year. I think we are going to take out $1034-36 high and go to $1080 to $1150. Then we will have a retracement back to $1000 to $980. Then we will start leg number 2 and zip up to $1250 with the rally going strong thru December. There is  still plenty  time to get in and plenty of undervalued Gold and Silver producers. Don’t forget to add some Platinum/Palladium producers as well like (PAL) and (ANO). I will be putting up a portfolio list in the next week of companies I am personally invested in. Also for some quick bang for the buck without the total risk you may want to look at (DGP) an ETF which gives you 2x times the future price gain.

As for stocks we are now forming the right shoulder of the head and shoulders top formation, expect choppy, whipsaw action as the beleagured bulls try to hang on. However they (the Bulls) will run out of energy and the market is getting ready to collapse. A close below 9300 will signal the beginning of the failure. Below 9250 will confirm, and absolute confirmation with a close below 9000. I do think tomorrow (Fri) we have a chance of seeing 9400-9425 and then start a gradual decline accelerating at the end of next week. As always Great Investing! – jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Black September is Here Again!

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ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Well the dog days of summer are over and September is blowing in. As the brilliant colors of autumn are starting to bloom with the leaves turning orange, gold and crimson; the leaves are starting to drop. That’s not all that is starting to fall, stocks are beginning their seasonal drop. If you haven’t taken profits please do so. We will see one more push up in stocks as they form the right shoulder of the head and shoulders formation on the chart. We have just finished the head with the right shoulder to follow (DJIA). 9200 (DJIA) is the first support, next roughly 9125-9080. A decisive break below the 50 day moving average or 9000 will be absolute confirmation of the new bear market downtrend. Commercial real estate is one of the next factors (shoe) about to drop. In addition the tax break for buying a new home is about to end, and the auto industry will not have cash for clunkers to fall back on. Late Breaking China has said NO to Credit derivatives and any losses from them. This is definitely not good for the US markets. So get rid of your more speculative stocks move to good yielding stocks in industries that people have to buy the products in good times or bad times. On the rest move your stops very close w/in 10% trailing. Maybe also look at selling covered calls or puts to lock in profits and earn a little income on the side.

Gold and Precious metals are coiled up ready to spring dramatically to the upside. Countdown is almost over, ignition commencing. We have a nice little triangle in Gold. Personally, I feel we will see the breakout to the upside after a little false breakout to the downside. In other words I fell it will go down like this, first we will see Gold test the $930 level as the Big 3 shorts make one more desperate effort to save themselves. However I feel that Gold will hold and climb back to $950 and then break above $965. When that happens the next resistance will be $980, then $1000, and then a 2nd test for the all time high at $1032. I think it will successfully break that level and hit at least $1250 before the end of the year with a potential to actually hit $1325. Keep accumulating companies with a low cost of production, junior and mid tier producers with current or about to start production. There are still many bargains which I will start featuring here on the blog.

I apologize for the recent lack of posts over the past month. Since I lost my day job, I decided to go back to school again so to speak by taking a few intensive trading and technical analysis courses to refresh up again. Since my new job will be trading the markets, I will be sharing my picks and option trades, forex trades, along with choice stock picks. Wishing all of us Great Investing! -jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

==============================================

John Licata Still Eyeing $1200 Gold in 2009 – GoldSeek.com

Bullish on gold since it carried a $400-per-ounce price tag, Blue Phoenix Chief Investment Strategist John Licata expects the king of metals to ring in the New Year with a $1,200-per-ounce crown. As he told The Gold Report in April, he still considers gold one of the best asset plays in the world. With recovery on the horizon, he’s also high on silver—in part because a pickup in manufacturing will drive up demand. While he says it’s premature to claim economic recovery, he isn’t looking to copper to serve as the traditional harbinger of a return from recession this time. His rationale? Good economic news—while too inconsistent to make recovery imminent—is already baked in to copper’s climb already this year.

The Gold Report: You weren’t too bullish on seeing a recovery in 2009 when we caught up with you in April. We’ve seen some good Q2 reporting from a variety of companies and some encouraging economic data. The government is starting to claim we’re in recovery. What’s your take on this?

John Licata: I do think we’ve seen some better domestic economic data, but it’s premature to think we’re totally out of the woods. In terms of corporate earnings, a lot of company profits might have surprised to the upside, but they’re still down 50% to 70% from quarters before or the prior year.

Many companies have been trying to compare Q1 and Q2. You’re still not seeing dramatic differences to the upside. Quite frankly, some companies are still living within cash flow and I think that’s one of the reasons why we could have a problem with supply and demand imbalances as we come to the end of 2009 and enter 2010.

Unemployment is likely to keep rising. Although the last numbers were much better than anticipated, I don’t think we’ve seen the green light that will cause people to start hiring again. We could hit 10% unemployment by the end of the year, and that’s going to be a precursor to some weaker retail heading into the holiday season. Net-net, you probably could put the word ‘inconsistent’ toward most of the economic data coming out of the U.S.

The industrial numbers that came out of China a couple of weeks ago [August 10] were actually below expectations as well. While everyone wants to be bullish and the data is somewhat better than many expected, it’s still not great. So I think to claim victory right now is definitely premature.

TGR: You mentioned a supply-demand imbalance. What do you see on that front?

JL: Companies are not putting money back into infrastructure. For that reason, once demand actually starts to increase, supply levels will be shockingly different from what people might expect.

TGR: Are you differentiating between the BRIC countries and North America in that regard?

JL: I’m not just looking at the BRIC countries as the barometer for the economic pulse. I don’t even think China is the saving grace for commodities. But I do think what is going to be indicative for a recovery is to see demand pick up, to start seeing jobs pick up again, more consistently; not just one month out of six. We need to see consistent job growth.

TGR: When do you think demand might pick up?

JL: Q3, perhaps Q4, is when we probably can start seeing demand start picking up and I think that’s when we’re going to start to see overall a global economic recovery. I’m skeptical that it can happen before Q4.

TGR: Is that worldwide demand pickup you’re anticipating?

JL: I’m referring to North America.

TGR: Can demand pick up before unemployment abates?

JL: It can happen before, but I think demand and employment will increase in tandem.

TGR: In our previous conversation, you compared the investment opportunities in oil, natural gas and gold to one another. At this point, which of these three sectors do you think offer the greatest return?

JL: Because of the upside that I think could happen over the next 12 months, I would rate natural gas first, gold second and oil third. For right now, I’m conservatively optimistic on oil. Although short term we might have a pullback, I’m still bullish on the price of oil. I think oil will trade north of $80 by year end, and I think we’ll again see triple-digit oil within the next two years. A lot of major wells in the world are not as productive as they once were and when it comes to demand increasing because the overall economic health around the world is picking up, we could be in trouble in terms of supplies. That relates to the metals as well as energy.

TGR: Speaking of metals, your outlook for gold?

JL: I continue to maintain that we could see $1,200 gold prices by year-end. I think gold is very much on the way to hitting that pretty aggressive price target. The miners themselves seem pretty confident on the upside for gold.

TGR: In April, you described gold as one of the best asset plays in the world and your recommendation to investors was to focus initially on physical gold. Have you changed that viewpoint?

JL: No. I’ve been bullish on gold since it was below $400. But now I am starting to see some opportunities in the equity side of the gold market that are becoming very appealing and I didn’t see that when we last spoke.

TGR: Are you still bullish on platinum and palladium, too?

JL: I am still enthusiastic, but not as bullish on either of them just because we have seen a bit of a run since April. I’d rather be in silver. I think silver gets forgotten when we start talking about precious metals. As opposed to platinum or palladium, I would rather be in the silver space.

TGR: Is there anything in particular in silver that you’re finding appealing?

JL: I just think if we’re talking about an economic recovery in the back half of this year into 2010 and silver is mostly used for industrial purposes, I honestly think that silver prices are just forgotten. When people start talking about the inflation hedge, they jump into gold. If they start talking about the economy improving, they jump into copper. They tend to forget that silver is actually used for much manufacturing. So I think that is the forgotten metal and I do think that silver prices can move a lot higher, especially as gold prices march through $1,000.

TGR: As you say, people look to copper as the leading metal to point to in terms of a recovery. What’s your feeling about copper?

JL: You hit the nail on the head. Everyone starts to talk about copper, but nothing has jumped out at me to say that copper prices have much more upside. Copper prices are up nearly 100% year-to-date, so I think a lot of the recovery that many people are talking about has been priced in already.

The Baltic Dry Index, an index that just had the biggest monthly drop since October (down 28% in August), has been down because people fear that China might cut back on buying iron ore and coal. If that happens, copper prices won’t be immune. Copper supplies have been tight for the last couple of quarters. If anything, we’re trading about 35 cents or 40 cents above the recent 50-day moving average. I think copper is over-extended right now.

TGR: Any last comments before we meet again?

JL: Only that while it’s a difficult marketplace and I do expect tight markets around the world to continue, some of the plays we’ve talked about have the makings of a pretty successful portfolio.

After studying economics and graduating from Saint Peter’s College in New Jersey (where he received the Wall Street Journal Award for economic excellence), John J. Licata set his sights on Wall Street. During his career, John has held both trading and research positions on the NYMEX, Dow Jones, Smith Barney and Brokerage America. Early in 2006, he founded Blue Phoenix, Inc., an independent energy/metals research and consulting firm based in New York City. John, the company’s Chief Investment Strategist, has appeared regularly in the media (CNBC, Bloomberg TV/Radio, Business News Network (BNN), Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Sun, Los Angeles Times, etc.) over the years for his insights/forecasts in the commodity spectrum.

Streetwise – The Gold Report is Copyright © 2009 by Streetwise Inc. All rights are reserved. Streetwise Inc. hereby grants an unrestricted license to use or disseminate this copyrighted material (i) only in whole (and always including this disclaimer), but (ii) never in part.

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

The Countdown Has Begun!

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The timer is ticking and drawing ever closer. The Markets are behaving just like I felt they would be. The (DJI) is making it’s final push while the broader market is starting to lag. We are almost at the top of the head in the head and shoulders pattern for the (DJI). Will it break 10,000? Personally I do not think so. The market rallied today on “funny” unemployment figures released by the government this morning. What happened to the 750,000 unemployed workers which have seemingly vanished? They certainly were not hired on new jobs! Where did they go? Add them back, you now have a more real picture of unemployment. Please keep your stop losses tight and be prepared to be stopped out.

Gold and Precious Metals… Like I said the timer is drawing down to zero. Keep accumulating and add on to your (DGP) positions too. Buy producers and those near production with proven reserves. I still see $1250 by year end for Gold, $25 for Silver and /or better! Buy now! Your Children and Grandchildren will Thank You!   Another stock I like is Apollo Gold (AGT), they recently have started production and are ramping up for more. At .45 cents a share you can get a nice position for a small investment. Another “Buy and Forget”. By the way I still also feel Silver will outperform Gold on a percentage basis (see article below).

Have a Great Weekend, I will be resuming regular daily posts as soon as I have finished setting up a couple of new web sites. My other vocation, I am also an Internet Marketer. Remember, set up as many multiple income streams as you can. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

Please Follow me on Twitter & FaceBook at: 
http://twitter.com/jschulmansr - Overall Markets and Trading Blog
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FaceBook http://facebook.com/jschulmansr 
Thanks Again!
Jeff aka jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

================================================

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

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Insiders are Selling – MarketWatch

By: Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders have recently been selling their companies’ shares at a greater pace than at any time since the top of the bull market in the fall of 2007.

Does that mean you should immediately start lightening your equity exposure?

It depends on whom you ask.

But, first, the data.

Corporate insiders are a company’s officers, directors and largest shareholders. They are required to report to the SEC whenever they buy or sell shares of their companies, and various research firms collect and analyze those transactions.

One is the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research. In their latest issue, received Monday afternoon, Vickers reported that the ratio of insider selling to insider buying last week was 4.16-to-1, the highest the ratio has been since October 2007.

I don’t need to remind you that the 2002-2007 bull market topped out that month.

To be sure, the weekly insider data can be volatile, especially during periods like the summer, in which the overall volume of insider transactions can be quite light. That is one of the reasons why Vickers also calculates an eight-week average of the insider sell-to-buy ratio, and it currently stands at 2.69-to-1. That’s the highest that this eight-week ratio has been since November 2007.

To put the insiders’ recent selling into context, consider that in late April, the last time I devoted a column to the behavior of insiders (and when the rally that began on March 9 was still only six weeks old), the comparable eight-week sell-to-buy ratio was just 0.72-to-1. ( Read my April 27 column.)

Why, given this, shouldn’t we be running, not walking, to the exits?

May be you should, of course.

But, in deciding whether to do so, there are several other factors to consider.

The first reason to be at least a little bit skeptical of insiders’ current pessimism is that they, on balance, failed to anticipate the 2007-2009 bear market. On the contrary, as I reported on numerous occasions during that bear market, they were largely bullish throughout. The average recommended equity exposure of Vickers’ two model portfolios, for example, was around 90% from late 2007 through the early part of this year.

What makes insiders more worth listening to now than then?

It’s a fair enough question, of course. What those who are inclined to follow the insiders can say by way of response is that insiders, over the years, have been more right than wrong — even though by no means infallible.

Another reason not to immediately go to cash in response to insiders’ increased recent predisposition to sell their companies’ stock: They are often early.

In fact, Investors Intelligence, a newsletter edited by John Gray and Michael Burke, bases one of its market timing indicators on how the insiders were behaving 12 months previously.

A similar point was made earlier this week by Jonathan Moreland, editor of the Insider Insights newsletter. While acknowledging that recent insider behavior “seems totally inconsistent with this rally continuing unabated,” Moreland went on to argue that “it may take weeks or even months for insiders to be proven right. Money can be made in the meantime.”

The bottom line? Insiders are not always right. And even when they are right, they often are early.

Even so, it’s difficult to sugar-coat the recent increase in the pace of their selling,

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

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Fundamentals Are in Place For Silver To Move Higher – Seeking Alpha

Source: The Silver Analyst

The fundamentals are in place for silver and gold to move higher. The ongoing issuance of US treasuries and further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve inevitably point to continued dollar weakness. The interesting fact that the Fed stepped in recently to indirectly buy some of the auctioned bonds points to a decreasing lack of investor appetite for US debt. That the Fed indulged in QE is no surprise – they announced that months ago. It was more the fact they had to step into the void created by the absence of buyers that was more telling. So much for the fundamentals – now what about the technicals of timing?

No doubt you are aware that the US Dollar Index has breached longer term support at 77.7 and is currently slogging to retrieve that level of support. We don’t think it will succeed but for how long it will hold out is as yet uncertain. The breach is slight and we are still looking for a decisive breach that will propel gold and silver higher. The chart below sums up the dollar situation with potential overhead resistance at 79.

Looking at silver, we are seeing a pattern emerge that suggests if the dollar breaks to the downside, silver will be targeting its former high of $21 though we are uncertain of it completely taking that high out in the medium term. Nevertheless a buying opportunity is present and as advised to subscribers, we already have gone long in July.

The question for those with positions is when to exit? The silver chart is shown below displaying the longer term trend in terms of months with the prospect of the upper channel being tested if the dollar falls through to its lower channel in the low 70s. As a guide, remember when the US Dollar fell to 70 in March 2008, silver went to $21.

Zooming into the daily charts, we see silver has begun a move up since mid-July not dissimilar to the moves up in February and June. Those moves lasted two to three months and we anticipate something of the same here. Note the support lines in the two prior moves and their similar angles of ascent. By way of projection I have copied the first trend line from February and superimposed it on the current move. It meets the longer term line of resistance at about $18. That is the kind of price action we hope silver will indulge us when the dollar breaks down further.

You will also note the Elliott wave notation. The last move up from April to June was a clear impulse wave and this current wave looks to be in a wave 3 now with all the upside potential that such a wave brings.

So the stage is set for some fireworks but to aid our silver and gold cause the resistance line on the US Dollar Index chart needs to hold. So far it is and next week should prove to be very interesting.

Disclosure: The Silver Analyst is long silver bullion!

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Gold Bullion Regaining Its Glitter – Seeking Alpha

By: Prieur du Plessis of Investment Postcards

Is gold bullion coming back to life? Should one read anything into the rise of 6.2% (+$56) since the yellow metal’s low of early July?

When it comes to gold bullion and gold stocks, I need to confess I started my investment career in 1984 as none other than a mining analyst. Ever since those days of calculating net present values on my trusted HP 12C I have been intrigued by the shenanigans of the yellow metal and related stocks. And I have also learnt over the years that one should never underestimate the ability of the gold price to surprise when least expected.

Admittedly, part of the improvement in the gold price can be ascribed to the fading US greenback, which declined by 3.9% over the same period. I always have more faith in gold’s rallies when they are not only a reflection of US dollar weakness, but gold is also appreciating in most currencies. This serves as an indication of increased investment demand and is a phenomenon one should keep an eye on as gold might just have started moving independently of the dollar over the past few days.

Considering the fundamental outlook for gold, a very comprehensive report was recently published by Austria’s Erste Group. The analysts list the positive and negative influences below, leading them to conclude that gold is only half-way through a secular bull market and offers an outstanding risk/return profile.

Negative factors:
• Clearly falling jewellery demand.
• Recessions are basically not a good environment for the gold price (the gold price gets stimulated at a later stage by the measures taken during the recession).
• Gold tends to be held as asset and cash of last resort, which means it is liquidated in extreme financial situations. Given that more than 70% of jewellery is bought on the Indian subcontinent, the supply of recycled gold might continue to rise.
• De-hedging is coming to an end.
• The futures positions (CoT) would suggest a short-term correction.

Positive aspects:
• The worldwide reflationary policy will continue for a while.
• Global USD reserves are excessive, and the need to diversify is enormous.
• De facto zero-interest policy in USA, Japan and Europe.
• Central banks have changed their attitude towards gold.
• Supply still in long-term downward trend.
• Investment demand will remain high; Wall Street has discovered gold.
• Commodity cycle has a long way to go.
• Geopolitical environment remains fragile.
• China will increase its gold reserves.

Gold’s technical picture is certainly looking up. This is explained by Adam Hewison of INO.com who prepared a short analysis of gold’s most likely direction. (The analysis was done on Tuesday, but is still as relevant today as it was then.)

Click here or on the image below to access the video presentation.

Seasonally, September also seems to be a good month for gold, with an average gain of 2.6% for the month since 1970.

Source: Plexus Asset Management

I am bullish on gold in the medium term, especially as I believe the vast money printing by central banks could set off strong inflation pressures down the road. I will not be surprised to see bullion passing the infamous $1,000 resistance level over the next few weeks – a question of fifth time lucky – and I will be inclined to add bullion to my portfolio on pullbacks.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

The “Other” Shoe Is It Dropping?

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

The other shoe what is it? Actually, there are several “other” shoes getting ready to drop. Today we saw one of them… Did you check out the Treasury Auction today? What happened on those 5 year notes. They didn’t sell all they offered in simple terms. This is a huge week of financing for the Treasury and they had a shortfall and were only able to sell $39 billion; the bid to cover ratio was 1.92 the weakest in almost a year. Yields (the tail) were well above expectations with the yield rising to a 4 week high of 2.66%.

In turn the stock market dropped 26 points to close at 9071 DJI. Slipping ever closer to falling beneath 9000. Analyst’s however are stating the the DJI came back up after much deeper losses which is bullish. Hmm… Could there be another round of fabricated unemployment numbers tomorrow? This market is being heavily manipulated and is try to suck in investors to the upside so that BAM!, another Crash and there goes another chunk of our savings down the drain. Be aware, watch the remaining Treasury auction, keep your stop loss points very close. Remember there is a little bit of room to the upside to make a nice head and shoulders.

Alas, poor Gold today down another $12 today. Good news for smart investors, time to buy more. Believe it or not the rally start is about 1 to 1/2 months away, maybe much sooner. Oil did it’s retracement today and will start heading back to $70 barrel. Keep accumulating in both Precious Metals and Oil stocks junior and mid tier producers. Our time is coming very soon.

In the coming days I will put together/report my portfolio fav’s and publish them so you can check them out for yourself. Stay tuned, subscribe to the blog or follow me on Twitter to be the first to know.

Please Follow me on Twitter & FaceBook at: 
http://twitter.com/jschulmansr - Overall Markets and Trading Blog
http://twitter.com/daresomething - Politics
http://twitter.com/tweetsgold - Gold and Precious Metals
http://twitter.com/tweetsthecash - Internet Marketing and Affiliate Marketing
FaceBook http://facebook.com/jschulmansr 

Good Investing! – jschulmansr

========================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=======================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Quick Update for Dare Something Worthy Today Too!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Sorry, been so busy setting up things for Twitter and my other businesses. Hang in there with Gold and Precious Metals. With everything that is coming down, new regulations, audit of the Fed, and etc.; thing are getting tougher and tougher for those who are and have been manipulating the Gold and Silver Markets. They (the big 3) and others are trying to take advantage of this being a normally slow time in the Gold Markets and are trying to make the charts appear (from a technical basis), that the rally has ended. Please do not fall for this! Keep accumulating more shares of all the tiers of producers and explorers who are about to start production. If you are buying Bullion TAKE DELIVERY! I still predicting that we will see Gold at $1250 and Silver $25 by the end of this year. Hold On, Be Patient, Take Delivery, and use this Opportunity to continue accumulating. I will have a new tip either tomorrow or the weekend.

In the meantime you can follow me and the markets on Twitter. I Tweet quite often during the day at the following sites on Twitter below. I reciprocate all follows and friend requests. Here is what I have set up for you on Twitter, please follow all or at least the ones that interest you. I will be starting back to daily posts in the next few weeks. Here is my also a little about me and my latest profile on Seeking Alpha:

Seeking Alpha profile link

I am an Open Networker, Top Linked, LION (worn with pride!), and accept all LinkedIn and FaceBook friend/join my network requests. In addition I reciprocate all Follows on Twitter.

FaceBook: http://FaceBook.com/jschulmansr

LinkedIn: http://LinkedIn.com/in/jschulmansr

Twitter: http://Twitter.com/jschulmansr

Friend Feed: http://friendfeed.com/jschulmansr

I am also an avid Tweeter on Twitter and have the following Twitter Sites.

http://Twitter.com/jschulmansr – Much like my Blog

http://Twitter.com/DareSomething – Politics and Conservative/Libertarian Issues

http://Twitter.com/TweetsGold – Gold Markets and Everything Gold.

http://Twitter.com/TweetsSilver – Silver Markets and Everything Silver

http://Twitter.com/TweetsOil – Oil & Energy Markets, Alternate & Green Energy

http://Twitter.com/TweetsForex – Forex, Currency Markets and Trading

http://Twitter.com/TweetsTheCash – Internet and Affiliate Marketing

http://Twitter.com/7FigureTweets – Internet and MLM marketing

I am just a simple guy, I love Investing. Nothing better than making a trade and Winning. The Life of a trader is this Hours upon Hours of Boredom punctuated by moments of Sheer Elation or Sheer Terror! LOL!
I could bore you with how I have held every Series License from Stocks, Commodities, Bonds and Insurance at one time or another, how I have 25yrs. + trading experience.  Or tell you tales of my greatness but bottom line, I love what I do and I love to share, learn from and teach other people. My definition of being successful is while you are climbing up the mountain of Success, you are also holding out your hands to those below, to help pull others up the mountain with you. I hope you enjoy my blog, Tweets, and that I am able to entertain, but at the same time help you. Enjoy and May God Bless You Richly and Abundantly!

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Gold Ratios – Time To Pay Attention – Seeking Alpha

By: Gary Tanashian of Notes From The Rabbit Hole

Ever since the sentimentally unsustainable negative events of Q4, 2008, when gold simply exploded higher in ratio to over-played assets far and wide in a panicked rush for safety, the ancient monetary metal has been consolidating its relative gains. As noted at the time in NFTRH, this excessive reaction had to be worked off. Now, unfortunately for the unprepared and hopeful, it has been worked off. Forewarned is forearmed.

 

Dialing forward to today, we find a tired rally in nominal stock, commodity and low quality debt prices. We see a rising Gold-Silver ratio (GSR) and a US dollar not far above our ‘do or die’ support level of 78. See the free, albeit abbreviated issue of NFTRH (.pdf) for the monthly view of USD.

NFTRH held and added gold miners strongly throughout the process of gold’s impulsive rise in ratio to the things that are positively correlated to economies and rising human spirits. This, even as nominal gold stock prices imploded. Positions were added ‘all in and around’ a historic bottom and this trade has paid off quite well.

Okay, that is history. Now what?

We have been watching the GSR (among other indicators) tirelessly and its message for the markets has been actively bearish for about a month now. To review, when silver is rising relative to gold it indicates a willingness on the part of market participants to accept risk, to ‘play’. The GSR has been working like a more sensitive version of the VIX in recent years. Ah, but there is literally a world of ratios that can be used to advantage when attempting to gauge the winds of the markets.

In the chart included today we see gold in ratio to the Reuters CRB commodity index ($CCI). Even as many people micromanage nominal prices of asset markets, gold’s ratio to commodities tells a story of a bottom in the making, which of course tells a story of a top in the making in what NFTRH called ‘Hope 09’.

Let this short article serve as notice that gold’s consolidation vs. the assets of hope looks to be in its final stages. This is a bullish chart, and in this weekend’s NFTRH41, we will look at gold’s ratio to several other assets and markets. It is time to pay attention and it is time to get it right.

Markets travel in roundabout directions and cycles – both short and long term – must be endured. It is technical, sentiment and market ratio analysis that guides us through these cycles and keeps us on the right track. Please heed the above chart and consider what will happen when gold finishes consolidating the explosive ratio gains of 2008.

 ===================================================

My Note: If you payed attention and I know my readers did, it is time to buy Gold now, the consolidation is almost over. This means Gold and Precious Metals are about to resume their rally and very soon! Once again, I am calling for Gold at $1250 and Silver at $25 by the end of this year. You are never hurt by getting in early, but definitely hurt by getting in too late or missing it altogether; Buy Precious metals in any form. If Bullion TAKE DELIVERY! -Good Investing! – jschulmansr

 

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault  

====================================================

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

The $997 Stock Tip! Weekend Update…

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Well we made it to the weekend. as I said in my last post things are just too interesting to go away! I hope you took my last post to heart and didn’t jump in the next day when stocks went up. This is a sucker’s rally! We have some support levels as follows for the (DJI) 1st is at 8400, then 8250, 8000, 7500, then nothing until 6450 area. I think that this is what we will see, a second test of the 6450 level for the (DJI) over the next 6 months. Remember the fear factor is growing again, and the “green shoots” are starting to dry up.

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One thing that few people have been talking about is how many people are now in negative equity in their homes and just can’t afford the mortgage payments and are starting to walk away from these homes and letting them (mortgages) default. Especially their 2nd homes and investment properties bought at the end of the real estate boom. Also, these are considered high grade loans, and default is growing along with the people (high risk) who couldn’t afford to buy the home in the first place!

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Next, credit card debt, how many unemployed workers are living off their credit cards now and can’t afford to make the payments. Plus even those employed but thought they could continue to use their homes as ATM’s now find they just can’t make the payments. Credit Card Debt defaults are starting to grow exponentially! Yes, the other shoe is starting to drop!

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Next, the Dollar is getting ready to swan dive again and if the amount of money that has been created by the treasury, has actually doubled the amount of dollars out there; then isn’t our dollars already really worth 50% less than at the beginning of the year. Yes, that is how much money they have printed just since the beginning of the year! On a side note; Russia is even in worse shape than we are in the U.S., so for the Forex traders out there here are 3 currency pairs I think will perform quite well. First for the russian situation, (USD/RUB), (EUR/RUB). This is the only Forex trade that you will see me recommend with  the Dollar as long. For the Dollar, since I think it is going down, down, down; (EUR/USD). However a better trade would be to look at in my book the 2 best “resource countries” as opposed to the U.S.A. These would be (AUD/USD) and (CAD/USD).

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Precious Metals, my outlook is still the same; for Gold and Silver stay long buy more any form. Experts state you should have 10%-15% in Precious Metals. For optimium financial health in my opinion you should have 50%-60% or more in Precious metals just to protect yourself from either Inflation or Deflation and what is going to happen to the dollar.  The new base range for Gold and the strong support is $890 – $920. On the upside $950 the 1st battle, then $980, then $1000. However, confirmation of the bull breakout will occur in my book after a few successful closes over $955. I am calling for Gold to be at $1250 – $1500 by the end of the year. Don’t forget China and Russia are buying Gold to hedge their currency and US Debt holdings. The IMF sale … forget that China alone will santch that up in a heartbeat, it’s a drop in the bucket!

My Gold stock tip is this Apollo Gold (AGT). I have been buying this since the 10cent level and it is currently trading in the 45 cent level. The company just produced it’s first gold (3000 oz.) less than a month ago. The comapny also just announced another “high grade” hit 13oz gold/ton find on an adjacent property close to it’s producing mine and mill. Wesites to check out on Apollo Gold.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:AGT

http://apollogold.com/en/investors.htm

For actual bullion investments TAKE DELIVERY! Get on board the Rocketship now, countdown has commenced…

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

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Now for the $997 “Hot Stock Tip” There is a newsletter right now offering a special report on this hot stock if you join them as a subscriber for only $997. You get it here on Dare Something Worthy Today Too! for Free!

It is for a new treatment of cancer especially Prostate Cancer. It is a non invasive procedure, no chemo, no side effects, very effective. Remember, when we used to watch Star Trek and Dr. McCoy used to have an instrument the operated with a beam and performed the surgery with success? That is what they are using right now. It is the Cyber-Knife. It works by Proton Beam therapy. It focuses a beam of protons that directly hit the Cancer tumor without affecting the surrounding body. The company who makes the machine almost has more orders than it can handle, with more starting to pour in. Clinical trials were held and the results just came back as extremely favorable! I could go on and on but I would rather you check it out for yourself. So I will provide some links for you. The name of the company is Accuray Inc. and it produces the Cyberknife. Stock Symbol (ARAY) and is trading in the $6.80 range currently. It IPO’d at $35 then the Markets got trashed and so did this stock and saw a low of $3.80. It has been slowly climbing back from that, recently hitting a high of $9.00 and now experiencing a normal retracement getting ready in my opinion to go over the next year back into the $20-$30 range. This treatment really works and the clinical trials results were what the company had been waiting for. This is the next step cutting edge technology to remove cancer tumors. The company website and a few other sites so you can research this for your self…

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:ARAY

http://www.accuray.com/

http://www.proton-therapy.org/

I am going to continue to accumulate shares up to $9-$10 share put away and forget about for a couple of years, I think this one will pay my Grandaughter’s College education.-jschulmansr

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Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

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A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

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That’s it for now, sorry about the delay but if you saw and meet my Granddaughter Sophia you’d understand why the delay for my post. Have a Great Weekend! – Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Jeff Schulman Sr aka jschulmansr

twitter: http://twitter.com/jschulman

twitter: http://twitter.com/daresomething

Facebook http://facebook.com/jschulmansr

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or any other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.     – jschulmansr

Sell in May and Go Away? I almost Did!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Yes, I almost did! However things are just getting too interesting. Unemployment up again and the market (DJI) is trying to rally, currently up 52 points! Unbelievable, when will reality sink in. We are stuck in a recession and the other “shoe” hasn’t even dropped yet. Don’t be fooled by this “suckers” rally! I hope you took out most of your profits on your non-resource related stocks, especially financials. I still stand by my claim we will see the (DJI) test 6500 again before we ever get to even 9000!

If you are into Forex here is a “gimme” Buy USD/RUB. My reason is simple, traders are starting to panic as Russia’s situation is growing worse. The world bank and the IMF have both stated the Russian economy is and will be stuck in recession for many years to come. As the traders unwind out of the Ruble they will go into US dollars. Don’t get me wrong I think the Dollar will continue to fall as the Fed and Bernanke are running out of ways to keep propping it up. I just think the Ruble will drop faster. Disclosure Long

For Gold and Precious metals. We have a perfect head and shoulders formation in place. If we break back thru $955 I think we have confirmation that Gold is going to mount it’s next attack at $1000 despite continued manipulation to artificially hold it down. Take deliver is the new Rally cry! Let’s catch them with their shorts down! Sorry, no pun intended!. Disclosure Long (Bullion and Stocks) Precious Metals.

Next as promised, here is my hot stock tip! (NGLPF) Nevada Geothermal Power. I like this stock for several reasons, first it is still “undiscovered by the street. Second, it is in the Alternate (Green) Energy Industry; so an Obama “darling”. Plus, their first power generation plant is ahead of schedule and due to come online in October of this year. It is currently tading in the 60-70cent range. I am buying all the way up to a $1 dollar level. This is another “buy and forget. I think it has the potential to be a 10 “bagger”. As always due your due diligence and read  the prospectus before you ever invest. Disclosure Long

Finally, I receive no compensation for any stock I mention here, these are my own personal trades that I share from time to time. If I ever do start receiving compensation for reccomendations, I will disclose that immediately. Good Trading!- jschulmansr

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===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

                                        – Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox. Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

Click Here For Your Free Analysis

=====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Time to Take Delivery! Do it Fast…

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

My fellow Investors, lately I have been hearing rumors going round about how many so called “safe warehouse’s bullion depositories” are about to be or are in process of being audited. Exactly, to find out if they have all the Gold and Silver they are supposed to be holding for investors. I just received confirmation from a very reliable source today – Jim Sinclair himself! If there is anything even slightly amiss, a panic will ensue for sure. So in order to protect myself and you my readers, I am recommending that you take delivery now and immediately. Yes, even from “Comex approved” warehouses.  I will include below the missive I received from Jim Sinclair today.  Ps- One other thing this will help accomplish aside from the most important fact of self/wealth preservation, it will definitely cause a “short squeeze” in the Gold and Silver markets and catch the big 3 banks with their shorts down! (okay pun intended! LOL!).

Now for the markets, the (DJI) is right back where we were a few days ago. 8750 (DJI) is still the key with upward resistance the big 9000 and support at 8500. I hope you followed my advice and took out most of your profits. You will never get hurt taking profits and remember you can always jump back in if you pulled the profit trigger a little early. Ps- today’s action looked awfully like a key reversal and the start of the next down leg. Remember, Treasury yields are going higher, Russia, China, and Brazil have all announced they are selling US Treasuries for IMF Bonds. The Fed can only keep buying Treasuries with the help of the printing press. How inflationary will that be? Otherwise, they have to let the US Dollar crash, in fact I think they are going to do both until it is too late…

Gold and Silver have been both inching slowly upward after the correction caused by the big 3 banks and their huge short positions. Everyone please write the CFTC and every other regulatory agency to investigate and stop the blatant price manipulation occuring in the Gold and Silver Markets. For More Info of Gold Manipulation go to www.gata.org.

Keep accumulating –  especially in Silver and Gold producers. I’ll have another sweet pick for you in a few days. Speaking of sweet picks did you see what happened with West Timmins Mining (WTMNF)? Hope you took advantage of my pick when I mentioned it here. Until the next time- Good Investing! – Jschulmansr

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Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a  steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Here is what I received from Jim Sinclaire of JSMineset.com today…

“Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts.” –Trader Dan Norcini

Dear Comrades In Golden Arms, You know that information that comes to me has been reliable. You also know that the entire purpose of all of working here at JSMineset has been to get you through this safely. You also know that if we had not been here hundreds of thousands of people now holding gold would not be.   So please pay attention to the following.   I have heard rumors for some time, but today it was confirmed to me, that the Canadian mint’s present problems are not unique and that other depositories (vaults) have had an army of auditors descend on them in the last two weeks. Some of these depositories have names so famous that it would scare the hell out of you. The repercussions would be drastic if they turn out to be troubled.   Why take the risk?   I suggest to you now that you take delivery of all gold held in vaults and depositories on your behalf, but this time even from the most prestigious.   You can get delivery via armoured car service to your bank and utilize safe depository, spread over a few banks. You can insure your safe depository if you do not mind making your holdings public.   I believe that this recommendation is warranted, but also it will be the financial saviour of many.   Respectfully yours, Jim

 

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The Gold, Silver, Oil & Natural Gas Report- Gold and Oil Guy

By: Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy.Com

The Gold, Silver, Oil & Nat Gas

Report

With so much happening in the market, emotions flying high and from being blinded by fear and greed many investors are wondering What do I do now?

I have put together some of my trading charts to help keep the overall picture clear for us commodity traders. My approach is very simple and effective when proper trading/money management is applied. FEAR and GREED are the two most powerful forces in trading and if you cannot stomach your trades when they go south, you most likely are trading to large of a position for your account size. Ok, I will try to stay on topic and not get into the education side of things J

The US dollar has had a massive rally considering the United States is in serious trouble. My thoughts are investors bought the USD as the entire planet started to crack thinking it was a smart investment. Which is could be a great play for the long term but I plan on covering that next week with monthly chart analysis for all these commodities.

I have heard a few analysts on CNBC say the US Dollar has broken its down trend. The question I am wondering is: What time frame are they looking at? The daily chart looks strong but if you zoom out and look at the weekly or monthly chart, we have not even made a higher high yet. Everyone sees the market differently that’s for sure.

The US Dollar – Head & Shoulders, Knees then ToesThis chart shows a perfect head and shoulders pattern which made a text book breakout. To keep this report short and to the point, the USD is at support and I expect we will see a rally higher to the 84 – 88 levels which would complete a larger head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart. A breakdown from the monthly head and shoulders would most likely start the next major leg lower. The USD could rise here, thus pull the price of gold and silver down temporarily and that is why I have locked in some profits on these commodities.

 

 

The Price of Gold – Daily GLD Fund

Gold is currently pulling back from resistance and in my opinion forming the right shoulder which will complete this reverse head and shoulder pattern. Last week I took some profit on my gold position and currently hold a core position hoping prices will hold at my next support trend line. If prices breach that level ($91) then I will exit the balance of my position and wait for the next low risk setup.

 

The Price of Silver – Daily SLV Fund
Silver is in the same position as gold. I am expecting a pullback for a re-entry.

 

The Price of Oil – Daily USO Fund
Oil has been on the run since May. Oil had a near perfect breakout/buy signal (Risk was over my 3% risk setup) but many traders took advantage of this signal and are now experiencing massive gains. Tighten stops to lock in some profits and let the rest ride until the next support trend line is breached which will provide more wiggle room for oil to take a breather before moving higher again.

 

The Price of Natural Gas – Daily UNG Fund
Last week I provided the weekly charts with analysis of all these funds. UNG was the one that really looked exciting. On the weekly charts its very similar if not identical looking to the price action that oil had before it sky rocketing. This chart looks like a spring coiling tightly and getting ready to explode. Only time will tell but keep it on your trading platform!

 Trading Conclusion for Gold, Silver, Oil & Nat Gas

In short, the US Dollar is trading at support and could be starting a nice rally to form the second shoulder which can be seen on the monthly chart. If this happens I expect gold and silver will have some selling pressure.

Oil continues to rally and short term traders should be thinking about tightening their stops to lock in some gains on the first sign of a reversal.

Natural Gas looks locked and loaded for a big bang. I’m waiting for my signature setup before jumping onboard as it helps improve the odds of the trade going in my direction after I enter a position.

If you would like to receive these free trading reports or my trading signals please visit this link: Free Weekly Trading Reports – Click Here

If you have any questions please feel free to send me an email. My passion is to help others and for us all to make money together with little down side risk.

To Your Financial Success,
Chris Vermeulen
The Gold and Oil Guy

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

An Open Letter To Congress – STOP!

 Today, the big 3 shorts tried to push and manipulate Gold beneath $950, however once again, they failed. Gold hit a low of $946 before bouncing back up and closing at $953. $950 is the new base of support for Gold. The Stock Market did manage to claw it’s way back to basically even/ unchanged for the day.-Good Investing! – Jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!===================================================

==============================================
Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a  steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

 Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just

Click on the Links Below…

 

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

I Decided to Make my voice heard today.

Today I decided to become involved and take action, here is the letter…  

Sent to my elected officials in congress; John McCain, Harry Mitchell,

and Jon Kyle.

 
An Open Letter To Congress – Stop!
 
By: Jeffrey S. Schulman Sr.
 
 
Dear Hon. Represenatives’s John, Harry and Jon;
 
     I have written to you many times before on various issues. Since my last communication, I am in process of becoming a District Committeeman for AZ. 5, 21. In addition I will be posting this letter and the results (actions you take), on my Blog, Dare Something Worthy Today Too! (https://jschulmansr.wordpress.com).
 
     Why I am writing to you this time is the question, “what are we doing to the financial futures of our present country, our children, grandchildren, and even great-grandchildren?” I am gravely concerned in light of the following…
 
     In May of last year the U.S. money supply stood at roughly $834 billion. Now, 1 year later, the Federal Reserve has created an additional $941 billion out of thin air. Pay close attention to those numbers…
 
·         The amount of new money (FRN’s) the Fed has created is roughly $107 billion     more than all the money that was in circulation just a year ago.
 
·         In other words, the U.S. money supply has more than doubled!
       Think about what this does to the value of your dollars, to your savings, to your paycheck, to your retirement income? A doubling of the money supply means your money is worth half what it was.
 
     Of course, your money’s loss of value won’t manifest itself overnight. It will take time for the Fed’s counterfeiting to drive up prices. But those who get the new money first will be able to spend it while prices are still low, increasing their wealth at your expense. 
 
     In addition, The Fed regulates banks, influences interest rates, and determines the size of our money supply through a complex process, called Open Market Operations, that involves buying and selling securities (mostly government debt). The Fed’s policies determine the value of your money, the health of the economy, and the
rates you pay to borrow.
 
     The Fed’s decision-making process is secret, using confidential information.
 
     Minutes of these secret meetings aren’t due until three weeks after decisions are announced.
 
     Transcripts of meetings don’t become available until five years later.
  
     Aside from the Chair, Fed board members serve the longest terms of any federal bureaucrat (14 years), and they can’t be fired for political reasons.

     The Comptroller General, head of the Government Accountability Office, is legally prohibited from auditing the Fed’s Open Market operations, and several other important Fed activities.
 
      The Fed is part of the Federal Government, but acts without any of the regular checks and balances.
 
     Next, The Fed and the federal government has made a lot of promises in our names. It has committed us to pay most of the health care expenses of the elderly (Medicare) and to provide them with a small stipend (Social Security). It has also borrowed trillions of dollars, to pay current expenses, which your children and
grandchildren will have to repay.
 
     Unfortunately, future revenues will be insufficient to fulfill these promises.
 
The Government Accountability Office estimates the future shortfall in funding at $53.3 trillion. Other experts say the number is almost certainly higher. This means that every full-time worker owes a staggering $440,000+, courtesy of government excess. Eventually, that debt must be paid, either in higher taxes, or in reduced benefits. These numbers represent a looming crisis of staggering proportions.
 
     Fortunately, there is still time to fix and reverse this crisis…
 
     The first thing I am asking you to do is co-sponsor and support Congressman Ron Paul of Texas bill that he introduced H.R. 1207, the Federal Reserve Transparency Act.
 
     This bill requires an audit of the Fed by 2010. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has introduced the similar S.604 in the Senate. Please support and vote for these bills.
 
     Next I am aware that the federal government has future unfunded liabilities estimated at $53 trillion. Please stop ignoring this problem. Please start reducing spending now. Balance the budget now. And start retiring the debt now so you can stop spending so much of my tax money on interest charges.
 
     Finally and of critical importance (actually all three requests are of critical importance), In the 110th Congress, Rep. Ron Paul introduced three bills that would have brought the above benefits. He will re-introduce them this year, and they should be combined into ONE simple bill. The benefits in addition to stopping or at least
curbing inflation are these:

     Ending inflation would cause your money to buy more and more as the economy grows, instead of less and less, as it does today. Stopping inflation would also end bubbles and booms, and the recessions they cause.

       The three bills which should be combined into one simple bill are
these:
 
    The 15-word “Honest Money Act” would repeal the 41-word legal
tender law, which gives the Federal Reserve a monopoly over the money supply.
 
     The 104-word “Free Competition in Currency Act” would repeal the
69 words of Title 18 Section 489 of the U.S. Code, which gives the
United States government a monopoly over the creation of coins for use as currency.
 
     The 193-word “Tax-Free Gold Act” would prohibit federal and state
taxes on precious metal coins and bullion.
 
     The explanation on why we should repeal the Fed’s legal tender
and coinage monopoly is this:
 
     Every paper dollar you own carries the words “Federal Reserve Note” (FRN). This means they were issued by the Federal Reserve System (the Fed), a national bank created by Congress. The legal tender law gives the Fed monopoly control over what you use for money.
 
     When a currency is legal tender you are legally compelled to accept
it in payment for debts, even if you’ve made a contract to be paid in
some other currency or commodity, such as gold. Abolishing taxes on precious metal coins and bullion, and repealing both the legal tender law and the federal coin monopoly, would free you to use other currencies, gold, silver, or all of them at the same time,
including FRNs.
 
      If this seems like a strange new world to you, please realize that
you already live in this world to a certain extent.
 
     When you check-out at a store you can already pay using cash, check, debit card, or credit card, and you probably also have different accounts you use for various purposes. Repealing the legal tender monopoly would simply give you more choices.
 
     Choice is good because it allows competition. Monopoly is bad because it leads to price-fixing. And monopoly control over what you may use as money provides the greatest price-fixing power of all. It impacts ALL of your economic transactions. The Fed can manipulate the price of everything by increasing the number of circulating
dollars (inflation), or by decreasing that number (deflation).
 
     You already know what it means when counterfeiters inflate the money supply. They use their fake money to get something for nothing, taking wealth from others without creating any wealth of their own. It’s a form of stealing. But the long-term consequences of counterfeiting are even worse than the initial theft.
 
     If the counterfeit dollars were allowed to stay in the economy, instead of gradually being removed from circulation, the result would be an ever-growing inflation of the money supply. This inflation would trick businesses into making a disastrous mistake.
 

     Thus, if you were a widget maker you would see an increased demand for your widgets because of the extra dollars pumped into the economy by the counterfeiters. A sense of increased demand and increased wealth would be the “bubble,” or “boom,” that always follows an inflation of the money supply.
 
     Your widgets would start to fly off the shelves faster than you could make them. You would have to increase prices to maintain inventories and invest in new production to meet the increased demand. But this increased demand would be an illusion,
because . . .
 
     Everyone else would raise their prices too. And they’d increase them for the same reasons you did. Rising prices would remove the perception of increased wealth and soak up the extra spending power created by the counterfeit dollars. This would cause the demand for your widgets to shrink back to its old level, but with a wicked twist . . .
 
     The increased inventories and expanded production capacity you created in response to the inflationary boom would turn out not to be needed. Your widgets would start to gather dust on the shelf and you would have trouble paying your bills.

The result?
 
     You would lay-off recently hired employees and close your recently expanded production facilities.
 
      First came the inflationary boom, or bubble, and then the bust, or recession.
 
     Extra FRNs created by the Fed work exactly the same as extra FRNs created by counterfeiters. They allow those who get the dollars first to get something for nothing, followed by a boom, and then a bust.
 
     The Fed has numerous ways to create new FRNs out of thin air. Economists cloud these methods in complicated jargon, and the talking heads on TV make it all sound perfectly normal and even necessary, but the result is exactly the same as with illegal
counterfeiting.
 
     Given the above explanation it should come as no surprise that the greatest boom and bust in American history happened immediately following the Fed’s birth in 1913. Fed inflation put the inflationary “roar” in the “Roaring Twenties” followed by the biggest bust ever, the Great Depression.
 
     Past inflations, booms, and busts were created through essentially the same process, including the recent stock market and housing bubbles. The Fed is simply the government’s latest-and-greatest tool for legalized counterfeiting.
 
     Imagine what would happen if FRNs had to compete with gold, a form of money that can’t be significantly inflated or deflated because of its scarcity and durability. . .
 

     People would begin to have gold accounts that they would use to buy and sell. The ownership of the gold would be transferred back and forth using checks, debit cards, paper certificates (currency), and a few coins, just like with FRNs.
 
     When you went shopping you might start to see two prices, one in FRNs and one in a certain weight of gold. If the Fed inflated the number of FRNs you would see the FRN prices rise while the gold price would stay roughly the same.
 
     You would begin to prefer to pay the gold price, so you would want to be paid in gold too.
 
     How could the Fed stop the flight to gold? Only one way, Stop inflating the number of FRNs (printing more new U.S. Dollars).
 
     Congressman Paul has hit upon the easiest way to end inflation, and the booms and busts that follow in its wake. Simply repeal the legal tender monopoly enjoyed by FRNs, and the coinage monopoly held by the United States government. Stop taxing exchanges in commodity metals. Allow monetary competition. This would help end inflation.

But that’s not all . . .
 
     Forcing FRNs ( the U.S. Dollar) to compete with gold would also confer one other benefit. Over time the prices you pay will tend to fall as increases in economic efficiency (for example, technological improvements) lower the cost of production and increase the supply of goods and services. A stable money supply tends to become more
valuable over time, unlike an inflationary currency that constantly loses value.
 
     Once again I am asking you to Audit the Fed and support HR 1207, S.604. Next, reduce spending now! Balance the budget and start retiring U.S. Debt. Stop the manipulation of Gold and Silver Prices. Finally, Please sponsor and support “The Honest Money Act”, “The Free Competition in Currency Act”, and the “Tax-Free Gold Act”.
 
     We will remember your choices and actions, and your votes with our votes in the next elections.
 
Sincerely,
 
Jeffrey S. Schulman Sr.

My Note: Please Join me!, write your elected represenatives and ask them to support all of the measures listed in my letter.- jschulmansr

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

 

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities

or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor,

consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and

related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.

–  jschulmansr

Flirting With Disaster!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

     Key Test Today! Stocks are Flirting with disaster, 8268 (DJIA) is the neckline of a head and shoulders. If (DJIA) closes beneath that, then we are definitely starting the next leg back down. Nothing to hold the freefall except some support at 8000 (DJIA) and then secondary confirmation of a new down move if breaks the next support at (DJIA) 7840, 7800, and then 7550. Take your profits now before you ride the DJIA right back down again.

     Gold and Silver however are poised to take off! If Gold successfully closes above $980 then next stop – new ALL time highs. As I mentioned yesterday hre is what I see for Gold. I predict that Gold will break $978- $980 and push up to approximately $1075 to $1090 on the first leg. We will see a normal retracement down to $950- $975 and then blast off to $1150 -$1250. I personally think with the hyper-inflation shoe about to drop, coupled with the remaining half of the derivative crunch. We can easily see $2250 to $2500 Gold by the end of the year. Keep accumulating Gold and Precious metals especially the junior and mid-tier producers. There are still companies out there selling at or below book value.

     In case you missed it yesterday here is the stock tip that I was offered along with an advisory service costing $297 year. This is the stock in their “special report”. just came across a sweet little play in the cobalt industry, supplies are dwindling fast and there will be a shortage just at the time this company comes on line with production. This company will have the only high grade cobalt production in the United States and will be able to supply approximately 12-14% of Cobalt needs for the USA. If you check out what Cobalt is used for you will understand why this stock has the potential to be a Grand Slam. Production is anticipated to be approximately 1525 tons per year with a 10yr life based on current reserves. I just received an offer to buy this tip along with an advisory service for $297 yr. I’ll give it to you for free. That’s just the kind of guy I am, LOL! The name of the company is Formation Capital Corp. Trading symbol (FCACF). I just picked up a bunch @ .35 cents/share, but as always do your due diligence, read the prospectus and company reports. If nothing else put (FCACF) on your watch list / radar. – Good Investing! -jschulmansr

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Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you 

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a  steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault  

====================================================

 Now For some reports…

Jim Sinclair: 9 Immediate Predictions For Gold – Seeking Alpha

By: Peter Cooper of Arabian Money.net

Jim Sinclair is the doyen of gold experts. It is interesting to see a very clear timeframe for the gold price posted on his website yesterday:

1. Gold reacts as currency support for the dollar enters mid June to a slow decline (that is the official definition of a strong dollar policy, really).
2. End of 2nd week going into the beginning of the 3rd week of June Gold launches towards and this time through the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders formation.
3. Gold rises to $1224 where it hesitates.
4. The OTC derivative market takes on the dollar as short sellers into dollar support.
5. This OTC derivative currency short position builds.
6. t is the US dollar where Armstrong will get his WATERFALL.
7. The main selling takes place when Israel makes a major miscalculation.
8. Hyperinflation is always and will continue to be a currency event.
9. Hyperinflation will be a product of the upcoming massive OTC derivative short dollar raid.

“Should I be correct in the gold price action going into late June, it will fit Armstrong’s criterion for a move to $5,000”, adds Mr. Sinclair whose predictions are not always right, and who got similarly carried away last summer.

But there is the old mantra in forecasting that if you repeat something often enough then it will be bound to happen in the end.

And to be fair to Mr. Sinclair, the gold positive scenario stacking up right now does look unstoppable.

===================================================

My Note: Sounds pretty darn close to my own predictions- Amazing! 

-jschulmansr

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Gold Battle Lines Drawn at $1000 – Again —Seeking Alpha

By: James West of Midas Letter

Here we go again. The forces of legitimate money versus the incumbent purveyors of the candy floss economy squared off at the $1,000 an ounce line over which yet another battle will be fought. Arrayed against either side are formidable new elements and tried and true old ones. As usual, the first volley has been catapulted over the walls of the hucksters by the defenders of the essential timeless truth of gold’s naturally stored value against the counterfeit paper currencies.

The liabilities of the enemy have increased, and the short positions in the COMEX market are sufficiently stacked that the big bank defenders simply cannot allow gold to win decisively. G7 governments are allied against gold to a man, while emerging economic behemoths China and Russia stand in opposition.

In particular, China’s revelations that it has been in a continuous accumulation mode for the last several years and is now the fifth largest sovereign reserve of gold has created an impetus in the gold camp that has been seen lacking in the past. Institutional and sovereign investment entities now perceive a floor in the gold price based on this information, and one must beg the question as to why China would make such a revelation when it threatens to undermine the value of its $2 trillion in U.S. debt holdings.

China has also been careful to avoid buying gold on the international market, for fear, it says, of creating a stampede into the precious metals that would immediately increase the cost of its stated intention to continue accumulating gold towards the backing of the yuan (renmibi) as a global reserve currency.

Yet that is precisely what has happened. Ostensibly, the justification for tipping their hand exists in the fact that they’ve resigned themselves to the fact that selling poison toys and pet foods to Americans in exchange for a currency that loses value like light into a black hole is an acceptable if imperfect transaction. With $50 billion a year in interest payments from the U.S., they can hedge the risk buy using it to buy gold.

With the perceived floor arguably at $850, downside risk is limited in gold far more so than in U.S. treasuries, which, if mainstream media is to be taken as remotely credible, is the current favorite of safe haven investors.

‘Safe Haven’ is about to get painted with same fragrant brush as ‘AAA-rated’ investments.

Goldbugs are salivating at the prospect of vindication, but seasoned veterans of the war know that the governments and central banks arrayed against gold are not fair fighters. Since the largest players in the futures market occupy both sides of the contract, and never take delivery of the physical gold, they can orchestrate a perpetual negative sentiment towards gold by driving the future price downward by simply amping up the short positions, thus making gold appear poised for a sell-off. This has been standard operating procedure for the last decade, and it is interesting to note that ever-bigger short positions are having less influence over shorter durations before the bulls shrug off the flimsy performance and take gold higher.

Critics and observers of this U.S. Dollar image management program point to the fact that such activity, while shoring up demand for U.S. Dollar debt in the short term, effectively undermines the entire global economy, and is among the fundamental causes of financial crises such as the housing collapse and the whole current global financial fiasco.

Proponents of this manipulation, who are increasingly legion in number, correctly predict an inevitable bursting of the damn catalyzed by investment demand overwhelming the short positions, forcing them to buy and cover to limit losses, which will, in itself, stimulate the gold price even further.

With the limited oversight and feeble reporting standards of the CFTC, the ploy is facilitated by complicit (or ignorant) regulators who ensure data is obfuscated and disclosure limited. It has been this collective effort on the part of the Dollar Defenders that continuously defeats gold’s advances, repeatedly castrating the bulls and sending them whimpering to lick their wounds and regroup.

But China is now leading the charge, and the bet is that they’re willing to forgo the lost value of their USD holdings to decisively undermine the global reserve currency once and for all and replace it with the Yuan, a move that would effectively mark the beginning in the shift of the global balance of power from west to east.

The United States, overextended militarily across the Middle East and Asia, with new fronts threatening to open in Iran and Pakistan, is perilously close to an international nervous breakdown. China’s opportunity is to ride to the rescue bearing smiles and steamed pork buns while dividing up what is left of the American industrial asset pool.

Our leadership of the last decade (or more accurately, absence thereof), eager to lubricate the workings of multinational financial interests, have inadvertently played into the patient hands of their biggest creditor by prostituting the national currency shamelessly to the point where every nation in the world can see what used up piece of spent jet trash the old USD has become.

While mainstream media dismisses the idea of the Yuan replacing the dollar as the international monetary standard, those of us who have tuned out at the perception management program on CNN recognize the event as halfway accomplished.

The truly explosive moment for gold will occur when the Chinese, at their discretion, decide to spring the trap, and abandon USD completely in favor of gold, suddenly spiking the price of gold straight north in tandem with the complete collapse of the U.S. dollar.

Don’t pay any attention to the second rate hacks trying to claim credit for predicting the fall…it’s been predicted repeatedly throughout history from Nostradamus to Roubini. Any student of economic history with 20/20 vision could see this coming, and here it is. “I told you so” is a waste of time. Who’s offering a solution?

Whether or not this particular battle at the Great Wall of $1,000 an ounce is the mother of all battles remains to be seen. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and while G7 governments collude to retain power, the unforeseeable is the greatest threat to gold.

That being said, veteran observers are optimistic, to say the least.

According to Bill Murphy, intrepid soldier of gold wars and standard bearer for the Gold Anti-trust Action Committee,

 

The Gold Cartel is giving it all they have no, as evidenced by the sharply rising gold open interest on the Comex … up some 23,000 contracts on Wednesday and Thursday. They are doing all they can to counter new spec buying.

My hunch is the next time we see $1,000, and that could be very soon, gold ought to take off from there, giving us more upside dynamic daily moves. The reasons to own physical gold are off the charts … HUGE investment demand, shrinking visible central bank supply (unrelated to the cabal), shrinking mine supply, shrinking dollar, concerns over sovereign wealth debt, a horrible US economy, and a US printing press that is going flat out and will have to for some time to come.

In my opinion, all gold has to do is to stay over $1,000 for a few days, and then all kinds of bells and whistles go off.

 

Bill is not the only one who thinks the breakthrough is at hand. Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com, himself a historically prescient oracle of market crashes agrees and warns that the stock market will be the first casualty of the new financial reality.

 

If you take a look at the dollar and the long bond, it looks as if they jumped off a cliff. This isn’t gold going up, it’s the dollar and bonds going down. When the market wakes up the stock market is going to take a giant dump. No more fake rally.

 

Investors by now should be well equipped to read the writing on the wall. Whether gold breaks through $1,000 and holds there, charts new territory at much higher levels, or is beaten back down through the offices of JP Morgan (JPM), HSBC (HBC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), is irrelevant.

Gold producer stocks are up, on average, over 22% this year in the Midas Model Portfolios, while intermediate producers and close-to-production juniors have piled on gains ranging from 20 to 200%, all since January this year.

You won’t hear anybody pointing that fact out on television, and you won’t hear that from your broker, in most cases. But the lesson is clear. Gold bullion is the place to be for wealth preservation, and gold producers and explorers is where risk capital is going to see utterly stupendous gains this year.

If you buy the hype of Wall Street and Washington and wade into the general equities markets, you have nobody to blame but yourself for the heavy losses you will surely sustain.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

 Gold vs Silver: There Is No Debate — Seeking Alpha

By: Market Sniper of We Just Trade

It is mildly amusing that when the precious metals markets are in confirmed uptrends, the perennial debate of whether it is best to own gold or silver always comes to the fore.

Both gold and silver, historically, have been money (merely utility in exchange). Gold in nature is approximately 15 times as scarce as silver. All the gold mined since the dawn of man, if molded into a cube, is said to fit inside a baseball diamond. Silver would nearly fill the stadium. China, now the world’s largest gold producer, had a silver standard as gold was more plentiful in China than silver, a bias that the west took full advantage of up through the 1870s. Silver imports by the Spanish Empire from their New World holdings were so large that it collapsed the European silver market. England, then on a bi-metalic standard, quickly switched to a pure gold standard. The Spanish Empire never recovered from the experience.

In the United States, the debate raged incessantly as to how the ratio would be “fixed” after the discovery of the Comstock Lode with western mining interests’ best known champion, Senator William Jennings Bryan, being the foremost proponent of a lower ratio. Seems it is an old debate. The good news is, you can own both. If/when the world returns to honest, stable money, you will need both: gold for the larger acquisitions and silver to make change.

While we await such an event, ratio trade the two metals to increase your holdings of precious metals.The ratio fluctuates wildly over time. In the 1970s and 1980s I used 28:1 and 40:1 as points that I would switch. At 40:1, I would be in silver. When the ratio dropped down to 28:1, I would exchange silver holdings for gold. Each time I switched, my stack of precious metals would increase in size even after dealing with the spread.

Find a precious metals dealer who will work with you on that. You maybe able to locate one that will only charge the spread on one of the metals and not both when you switch. Since then, the ratio has moved up. At one point it was even at 100:1. I now use 45:1 and 70:1 as switch points. See your tax accountant as to the benefits of such a program. Think 1031 Tax Deferred Exchange.

For those who do not want to break the rear axle of your automobile moving your silver when it comes time to switch, think about using ETFs that only reflect the price of the two metals. There are a variety of ways to accomplish this, from being in just one or the other to being long one and short the other. IF your objective is to accumulate the actual physical metals, do not use ETFs as a substitute for physical ownership. Rather, take profits from your switching trades and purchase the actual metals themselves. Gold vs. silver? No debate. Accumulate both.

Disclosure: long physical silver and gold

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A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

 ==================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.

Good Investing!–  jschulmansr

I’m Back- Time to Play!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

I’m back but before we get into the markets, I want to give everyone Thanks for your prayers for my Dad. We though we were about to lose him. So, I arranged for everyone to come out and see him, even his Grandkids. The visits perked him up tremendously. I continued to stay with him along with my wife. We took him out to his favorite restaurants and other places. So for the 3 weeks we were there he gained 16lbs, his color came back, and his body even started to produce Red Blood Cells. Even though he still needs occasional transfusions, was a major step in the right direction.He has regained his will to fight instead of giving up and slowly dying. So a very heartfelt Thank You to all who were praying! Each of you is very appreciated and I know God will Bless You manifestly in return…

Now for the markets… Wow! these last three weeks have been very interesting! When was the last time you have seen Stocks, Gold, and Oil rally at the same time? I will use the Dow (DJI) for my post today and provide links to some excellent analysis on the S&P 500 and Crude later in the post. Once again 8500 is the key marker for the Dow, failure to close strongly and move higher will mean we have a head and shoulders top here. A breakout above 8640 will confirm continued uptrend. Conversely a break below 8265 will mean the beginning of a strong correction to the 8000 level first and then 7850. If screams below that then down to 7500 with a test of the low around 6547. Personally I predict we will test the lows of 6550 first before we will ever see the DJI at 9000 or even 10,000. Sorry you bulls out there that is what I see in the charts.

For my favorite complex of Gold, Silver and Precious metals, a breakout over $978 signals a new strong push over $1000, or at least another test. Personally, I like the action of Gold here, building a nice base at $950. I predict that Gold will break $978 and push up to approximately $1075 to $1090 on the first leg. We will see a normal retracement down to $950- $975 and then blast off to $1150 -$1250. I personally think with the inflation shoe about to drop, coupled with the remaining half of the derivative crunch. We can easily see $2250 to $2500 Gold by the end of the year. Keep accumulating Gold and Precious metals especially the junior and mid-tier producers. There are still companies out there selling at or below book value.

I just came across a sweet little play in the cobalt industry, supplies are dwindling fast and there will be a shortage just at the time this company comes on line with production. This company will have the only high grade cobalt production in the United States and will be able to supply approximately 12-14% of Cobalt needs for the USA. If you check out what Cobalt is used for you will understand why this stock ahs the potential to be a Grand Slam. Production is anticipated to be approximately 1525 tons per year with a 10yr life based on current reserves. I just received an offer to buy this tip along with an advisory service for $297 yr. I’ll give it to you for free. That’s just the kind of guy I am, LOL! The name of the company is Formation Capital Corp. Trading symbol (FCACF). I just picked up a bunch @ .35 cents/share, but as always do your due diligence, read the prospectus and company reports. If nothing else put (FCACF) on your watch list / radar.

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Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you 

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault  

====================================================

Now for some current news…

Peter Schiff on $1000 Gold and Senate Bid – Gold Stock Bull

Source: Gold Stock Bull and Fox News

Peter Schiff was on Fox Business today and made the following points:

* Gold to break $1,000 soon and push much higher this time
* 50% or more of Peter Schiff’s liquid assets are in gold/gold stocks
* Most people should have 10-20%, more if you are young and aggressive
* Many gold stocks could go up 50 or 100 times from current levels
* At some point, the rest of world will stop lending the United States money
* America is in for a rude awakening, when we have to return to producing and saving again
* It is impossible for the U.S. government to pay back its debt. Default is only option.
* Peter Schiff might run for Senate in Connecticut

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A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

===================================================

What Is Even More Enticing than Gold? SILVER! — Seeking Alpha

By: Andrew Mickey of Q1 Publishing

The dollar is out. The U.S. dollar index has fallen 5% in the last week.

Treasury bonds are quickly falling out of favor. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has climbed from 2.5% to almost 3.5% since March signaling inflation fears and an unwillingness to fund ballooning government borrowing.

Gold is hot. Gold prices are back on the rise and gold stocks have done even better.

Is this a sign of things to come?

Well, if you take a look at the mainstream headlines, you’d think so.

An editorial headline on Bloomberg proclaims, “Dollar is dirt, Treasuries are toast, and AAA is gone.”

Even CBS News is warning, “Inflation could be coming to a U.S. dollar near you.”

To me, it seems just like a typical overreaction in the short-term.

Yes, the long-run trend for the dollar is down as the Fed keeps printing more and more of them and monetizing government debt. And yes, the prospects for gold get brighter and brighter with each passing week.

But there’s no reason to lose your head here. It’s going to take a few years for all this to play out. And the window of opportunity is still wide open to buy precious metals, real assets, and assets not denominated in the dollar (like ADRs).

That’s why, despite the strong interest in gold at the moment, I encourage you to continue to look for value in the sector. Right now, there seems to be some exceptional value in an asset which is so undervalued, it could outpace gold by 400% or more.

I’m talking about Silver.

When Gold Climbs, Silver Soars

In the past few weeks gold has been getting a lot of attention. With all the big money finally taking a liking to gold, the attention is justified. Remember, a turn in the big money’s attitude towards gold must happen before gold can break through the $1,000 mark and stay there.

The excitement surrounding gold’s surge has only pushed silver further onto the back burner. (You don’t hear about any major hedge funds loading up on silver do you?) And that’s the point. Gold is hot and silver is – in a relative sense – not.

So if you want to find an investment which isn’t so hot but still has a lot of potential in an inflationary environment, you’d want to look at silver. When you do, it won’t take long to realize silver – at current levels – could easily trounce gold in the months and years ahead.

That’s right. Silver has a much brighter future than gold. All you have to do is look at the silver / gold ratio to see how potentially lucrative the situation has become.

Ratios Don’t Lie

We’ve looked at a few ratios in the past. The reason is because ratio analysis can help identify value even in volatile markets. For instance, we looked at how the gold / oil ratio was signaling oil was a buy back in January. Oil prices are up almost 50% since then.

We looked at gold / gold stocks ratio back in December. We saw that gold stocks were significantly undervalued relative to gold. Since early December, gold is up a respectable 22% while gold stocks – as a group – have rebounded 70%.

That’s the value of ratio analysis. They can quickly show you how undervalued some assets are relative to others. And if you’re able to find them at extreme points, you can get into a trade or investment with less risk and greater upside.

Right now, the gold / silver ratio (the measure of how many ounces of silver can be bought for an ounce of gold) is at an extreme and working its way back to historical norms.

The chart below shows the gold / silver ratio is slowly working its way back to a much more normal level:

As you can see, the gold / silver ratio hung around 50 for most of 2008. Then the credit crunch threw everything out of whack and now it’s slowly working its way back to normal. But this chart doesn’t show the real upside in silver. That comes from the long-run average.

Over the long term, the gold / silver ratio has averaged about 30. That means one ounce of gold would buy about 30 ounces of silver. Today, with silver at $14.60 an ounce and gold at $953, the gold / silver ratio is 65. In other words, an ounce of gold would buy 65 ounces of silver. That’s more than twice the long-run average.

Silver prices would have to double just to be in line with the long run average.

Silver Slingshot

But here’s the kicker, when gold races, the gold to silver ratio gets flipped around. During the last precious metals bull market in the late 70s and early 80s the gold / silver ratio hit lows of 15.

That means if gold goes nowhere (granted, chances are pretty slim of that), silver could easily shoot up to $50 an ounce. That’s a 400% move for silver without gold moving up a single dollar.

Here’s the thing though, gold isn’t staying where it is. Over the next few years, gold is going much higher. And silver is going to go even higher. Silver will slingshot past gold.

Think about it. With a gold / silver ratio of 15…

At that ratio, silver would be at $66 when gold hits $1,000.

$1,500 gold = $100 silver.

$2,000 gold = $132 silver.

So if you expect gold to do well, you’ve got to expect silver to do even better.

According to the historical relationship between gold and silver, if gold does well, silver will do exponentially better. In past gold bull markets, silver prices zoomed past gold in relative terms. There’s no reason to expect this time to be any different.

In Search of Value

In the end, precious metals have been one of the few sectors which have maintained an uptrend through all this. As the long run prospects for the U.S. dollar continue to worsen, I expect the uptrend to continue. However, I expect this to take a longer time to play out than most.

Just take a look at what happened earlier this week. The Financial Times reported China is continuing to buy U.S. Treasuries. Granted, they’re switching to short-term durations, but they haven’t even come close to invoking their “nuclear” option yet and probably won’t for a long while.

We’re in the midst of a slow and steady decline of the dollar. The Fed is printing dollars to fund the growing government deficits and there haven’t been any significant inflationary consequences…yet.

That will change and it’s not too late to get prepared. Now is the time to buy precious metals and precious metals miners for your portfolio. Right now, with the gold / silver ratio indicating silver as undervalued and gold a hot topic, silver is a bit more enticing.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out: 

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault  

====================================================

                                        – Trend Analysis Revealed –

Substantial moves like the ones that we have recently witnessed present opportunities to succeed or fail in the markets. Traders who stayed on the correct side of the trend were rewarded substantially.

Serious questions effecting your portfolio still remain:

– Have we seen the Indexes bottom or top?
– Is a reversal in the near future?
– Is it too late to go short?

Stay on the correct side of the market. Let our Trade Triangle technology work for you. It’s free, It’s informative, It’s on the money.

Free Instant Analysis delivered to your email inbox. Analyze ANY Stock, Futures, or Forex symbol.

Click Here For Your Free Analysis

====================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Key Reversal Today?

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Today looks like we had a key reversal, hope you had your stops in place! Tomorrow I think we will see a down day and my question is how low will it go? First support the magic 8000 for the Dow, next at 7800, then 7500. I fully believe that we have to go and test the low at 6500 first before we will ever go and see even 8500 let alone 10000! There is just not even recovery in place yet, and the other shoe is about to drop. Wait and see… For Gold, we’ll see a bounce back tomorrow back to $880 to $900, then next level $920, a successful close over $950 will confirm a new test again of all time highs, we will definitely see $1250 by year end and much more if events follow what I have mentioned in many previous posts. Keep adding to you positions in the Gold miners, especially the producers, especially (CDE) and (NAK). When I get back from vacation I will once again be adding articles to my posts but for now have to keep themshort due to my spending as much time with my Dad as I can. He has a form of lukemia, and several otherissues. Please keep him and my whole family in your prayers. Good Investing- Jschulmansr

The Swan Dive- Next For Stocks?

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Well Mr. Obama said the same old, same old today and didn’t help the market at all… ANY of them! Mr. Obama what do you have against the market? I mean like your whole cabinet are all Good Ole Wall Street Boys!?! The Dow failed to maintain above 8000 today and that is a very bad sign or good depending which side of market you are on. It appears now the the intermediate wave (Elliott) is finished and stocks have climbed to the top of the diving platform. 1st attemp at a swan dive- difficulty easy. So wil it be a perfect 10 or a belly flop? Either Way the Dow is going down! My first target 7200-7500 and then a test of the 6500 level lows, (Called The “Bottom” recently). Gold and Precious Metals continue to consolidate getting ready to launch for a new test of $920, then $980, then the all time high. I think the news is going to be that bad and that dramatic. The Middle East is about to explode, N. Korea just threw out the inspectors, even the pirates are snubbing their noses at you Mr. Obama. So now the question is are you a man or a mouse? Squeak up! Copper is quietly having a nice rally, China is buying up all of our soybeans, and oil is getting ready to explode to the upside. Keep accumulating Gold and Precious Metals in any form, buy producers with production, you should jump into (DGP) with a little risk money too! In currencies my pick is the Aussie dollar, accumulate on dips because as Gold goes so will the Aussie Dollar. Good Investing! – jschulmansr

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===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

 

 

 

===================================================

My Note: I use these tools and they are great and they work! – jschulmansr

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

 

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

My Note: I use these tools and they are great and they work! – jschulmansr

 

 

===================================================

Pros Say: Sharp Market Pullback This Week – CNBC

Source: CNBC.com

Encouraging numbers from an investment banking giant dominated discussion among the pros, who tied them to massive government stimulus efforts — and doubted they would carry ahead to economic numbers, or even to results from other investment banks. 

Financials Show Surprising Strength; Consumers Still Look Weak

Scott Brown of Raymond James said there has been a real change in the attitudes and behavior of consumers, with fear now dominant. That is likely to be reflected in retail data this week, and there’s no likelihood that consumer spending will rebound any time soon.  (click to watch the video).

Stocks ended near their session lows Tuesday after a report showed retail sales unexpectedly dropped in March and as worries about banks simmered ahead of some key earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 137.63, or 1.7 percent, to close at 7,920.18. The S&P 500 lost 2 percent, while the Nasdaq skidded 1.7 percent.

 

Retail sales tumbled 1.1 percent

last month, a big disappointment as economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.3-percent increase. Excluding the volatile auto component, sales fell 0.9 percent. The two prior months were revised upward, offering some consolation, but the unexpected sharp drop rattled the market.

“The inescapable fact is that the U.S. consumer is faced with daunting fundamentals: Wage and salary income growth has evaporated, credit is very tight, home prices continue to decline … [which] makes it very likely that the U.S. consumer will remain a drag on economic activity in coming quarters,” MFR economist Joshua Shapiro wrote in a note to clients. “Fiscal stimulus will help to blunt this, but is unlikely to turn the tide completely.”

Markets are Overbought; Retail Numbers = Long Way to Go

Disappointing retail sales numbers in March, after two stronger-than-expected months, show the consumer has not turned the corner after all, and may “go back in his cocoon,” according to Art Cashin of UBS.  The market is overbought and vulnerable to a pullback — perhaps even a sharp pullback over the next three days — with option expiration built in.  He is hopeful we have set the lows for the cycle, although those lows may be tested, and he foresees a lot of “sideways churning for maybe months.

My Note: Unfortunately if sideways churning includes testing those lows then I absolutely agree if those lows hold. Unfortunately, I don’t think they will, can you say DOW 4500? – jschulmansr

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Oil and Gold to Figure Large This Week – Seeking Alpha

By: Brad Zigler of Hard Assets Investor

Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 7.9%

 

Easter Mondays leave Yanks more time to leisurely ponder the week’s trading prospects, as many global bourses are closed. We get to trade – and talk, as Linda Richman used to suggest – amongst ourselves.

Gold and oil naturally figure large in this week’s scenario. Particularly, oil over gold, if you’ve been listening to commodity maven Jim Rogers. Rogers thinks the International Monetary Fund [IMF] is a likely seller of some of its 3,200-ton metal stash, so he’s talking up black gold over yellow.

It’s not as if the world finds this surprising. Whether the IMF sales take place or not, the world’s been spoiling for a showdown between the two commodities.

Let’s look at oil first. The nearby crude contract gathered strength in its 50% retracement of the February-March rally, and is now poised to challenge the run-up’s $54.64 high.

Nearby NYMEX WTI Crude

True, near-term fundamentals still indicate oversupply. The re-growth in the contango tells you that. The quarterly carry trade was pinched to 80 cents a barrel a month ago; now it’s in the $4-5 range. If you’ve got a carrying charge market, you’ve got commodity enough to carry into future deliveries.

No, this has been a rally built more on expectations of improving economic prospects – hand-in-hand with the equity market rally – than on a supply retraction. Oil inventories at the Cushing, Okla., terminus may be down from their peak, but supplies in other regions have ballooned to more than compensate for the off-take.

Now, about gold …

Momentum and sentiment have turned sour for the yellow metal. But you probably suspected that, right? The recent 30,000-contract downdraft in COMEX open interest was led mostly by fund sellers. Net long positions held by large speculators tumbled more than 18% last week.

COMEX Nearby Gold

Technically, gold’s very vulnerable. Pushed to test its 100-day moving average on the downside and weighed down by overhead resistance at the $888 level – formerly support for the February-March topping action – the nearby market’s squeezed. Gold spreads (as mentioned in “Another ‘Make It Or Break It’ Hurdle For Gold“) indicate plenty of liquidity in the lease market. Supply’s not the issue for gold either. At least not yet.

Oil’s technical strength over gold is readily apparent in the gold/oil ratio. A rising ratio, meaning gold’s price is gaining on oil’s, is indicative of poorer economic conditions to come. A decline, not surprising, signals the market’s forecast of better prospects. The ratio’s been testing the 17-to-1 level over the past couple of weeks. An oil breakout could put this indicator on course to look for support at the 15-to-1 level.

Gold/Oil Ratio

It seems traders are essentially anticipating a reflation trade by making one of the primary engines of inflation, oil, their target rather than gold, inflation’s classic beneficiary.

This should be an interesting week.

===================================================

My Note: Brad you need to remember this time the Miner’s have started to begin the rally not the bullion market. When that happens Gold always rises. But with the producer’s/miner’s leading we will have a much stronger and deeper rally this time, I’m looking for $1200 – $1500 by year’s end! Have a Great Evening, don’t forget tomorrow is National Tea Party Day! – jschulmansr

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Ouch! What’s Going on With Gold?

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Ouch! Gold had a little mis-step today. Gold closed down $24.50 to close at $872.80. So what happened? Todays Articles will help show why and what to expect in the days ahead. First, Gold had to fill a gap created about 39 tradings sessions ago, gap filled and Gold held at the $865 level. Gold has 2 more strong resistance levels, first at $855 the 200day moving average and then at $845 which represents a 50% retracement of the last Bull run up to $1007 from $680.75 low in Oct 08. The market is starting to become very oversold and “the sheeple” are starting to give up on Gold. I personally added a little more (DGP) late today and if Gold is temporarily driven down to the next major support at $820-$825 will add even more. Long term all of the fundamentals are looking good for Gold although on a seasonal basis, barring any dramatic unforseen events, Gold will probably be locked in a $850 to $1000 sideways market range until the end of Aug. For stocks we have almost finished with secondary upward wave, we may see a burst for the DJIA to potentially 9000, then look out below! My calls, 1st 6500 then potentially as low as 4500; all based on Elliot Wave Theory. Right now the higher they push stocks up the more they will fall. It almost seems like everyone has forgotten about Oil which is still trading above $50 barrel. However once again barring any dramatic news, seasonally Oil will also probably trade in a sideways range between $40- $60 barrel. I am still adding more mid-tier and Junior Gold and Precious metals producers, look carefully there are still good bargains out there. For all the Gold bugs out there Don’t Give Up!, good, no awesome returns are coming as early as the end of this year, maybe sooner! I think we will hold at the 200  day moving average and then sideways between $850 to $1000 until Aug. Then Gold is going to take off. This prediction is also predicated on NO new bad news or crisis’s popping up, a purely seasonal prediction play. If we have majors news then Gold will take off much earlier and either way set new all time highs as it begins it’s next leg of Gold’s major Bull Market Run! – Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

 

===================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

Subject: Two trending markets, S&P and Crude Oil; revisited and analyzed for you…

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis:  Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested. This is an Awesome Free Service!

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

====================================================

Gold Falls below $870 on possible IMF gold sales, rising dollar – Marketwatch

By: Morning Zhou of MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold futures fell Monday for a third straight session to end near $870 an ounce, wiping out their yearly gains as traders shaved positions on worries that the 403 tons of gold sales by the International Monetary Fund will increase supply and depress gold prices.

Meanwhile, a stronger U.S. dollar also added downward pressures on gold prices.

“There is still this fear of a lot of selling coming from different central banks and the IMF,” said George Gero, a precious metals trader for RBC Capital Markets. “The perception is that ‘I am getting out of the way until all the sales are completed and let’s see how it’s absorbed.'”

Gold for April delivery fell $24.10, or 2.7%, to end at $871.50 an ounce in North American electronic trading. It dropped to as low as $865.10 earlier. The more active June contract also fell Monday, down 3.2% at $868.50.

Gold has lost nearly 6% since April 1 and is now down 1.4% for the year, partly out of optimism that collective actions by leaders of the world’s major nations may stem the global economic crisis.

In spot trading, the benchmark London afternoon gold-fixing price stood at $870.25 an ounce Monday, down $34.75, or 3.8%, from the previous day.

 

In other metals futures, silver for May delivery fell 4.9% to $12.11 an ounce. June palladium was up 0.4% at $225.75 an ounce, while April platinum fell 1.2% to $1,145.70 an ounce.

May copper dropped 2.1% to $1.959 a pound.

IMF gold sales

Leaders from the Group of 20 nations said last Thursday they endorse 403 tons of gold sales by the IMF. The proceeds will be used to provide finance for the poorest countries over the next two to three years.

The announcement came one day after the European Central Bank said it had completed the sale of 35.5 tons of gold.

The IMF’s plan to sell the gold still needs to be approved by an 85% majority vote from its 185 members. The U.S., which has 17% voting power in the fund, essentially holds veto power. See full story on IMF gold sales.

If the plan is approved, the gold selling will be implemented in coordination with major central banks to minimize the impact on the market, the IMF said.

The possible IMF gold sales helped gold prices move lower in the short turn, said Hussein Allidina, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. But he added he sees “any weakness in price as a buying opportunity as the sale would occur over years and be under the CBGA limit.”

The second Central Banks Gold Agreement, or CBGA, caps total gold sales of the signatories at 500 tons a year and expires in September. A third CBGA is expected to be signed before September. See related story about central bank gold selling.

Also helping gold move lower Monday, the U.S. dollar rose against most of its major rivals Monday, with the dollar index (DXY: 84.64, +0.48, +0.6%) up nearly 1% at 84.767. See Currencies.

A stronger greenback tends to push down dollar-denominated prices of commodities such as gold and crude. Crude futures fell nearly 4% Monday.

Falling ETF investment

Investment in gold exchange-traded funds also stalled recently. Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD 85.27, -2.32, -2.6%) , the biggest gold exchange-traded fund, stood at 1,127.37 tons Friday, down slightly from a day ago, according to latest data from the fund.

It’s the first drop in SPDR holdings in one month. The SPDR lost 2.2% to $85.68 on Monday.

Investors seeking investment safe haven had been buying gold earlier this year as deepening troubles in the economy pushed stocks to their lowest level in decades. But actions from the world’s major nations has boosted investment sentiment and reduced gold’s safe-haven appeal.

The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed more than $10 trillion to stem the economic downturn since the financial crisis began. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech Friday that he expects the gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth is coming.

The recent weakness in gold prices is “a sure sign risk appetite has increased further following the actions of various governments and central banks as well as the combined efforts of the G20 nations last week,” said James Moore, a precious metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com

Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.

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Gold Approaching 200-Day Moving Average – Seeking Alpha

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

With a decline of 3% today, gold is on the verge of testing its 200-day moving average for the first time since early January. With the exception of a one-day spike on the day the Fed said it would buy US Treasuries (3/18), gold has pretty much traded down in a straight line. Even though most observers said the Fed’s action would lead to inflation down the road, the price of gold is now lower today than it was before the announcement.

click to enlarge

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My Note: think we will hold at the 200  day moving average and then sideways between $850 to $1000 until Aug. Then Gold is going to take off. This prediction is also predicated on NO new bad news or crisis’s popping up, a purely seasonal prediction play. If we have majors news then Gold will take off much earlier and either way set new all time highs as it begins it’s next leg of Gold’s major Bull Market Run! – Jschulmansr

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Low Gold Price a Buying Opportunity – Seeking Alpha

By: Brad Zigler of Hard Assets Investor

Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.1%

You could just see things ending badly for gold Friday. April COMEX gold settled at $895.60, near the low of the day, after near-term momentum turned bearish. This morning’s trade looks weaker still after London dealers marked bullion at $879.50.

Another soft New York close will likely set up a test of longer-term support at the 100-day moving average, now at $869.70.

COMEX Spot Gold

London’s gold spreads, too, are painting a rather dreary tableau for bullion. The 12-month contango is shrinking against that of three-month forwards after gold’s previous run-up yielded only modest gains for bull spreaders.

Throw in the narrowing of credit spreads and the current resurgence of the equities market and the indifference to the metal is palpable. The three-month TED spread – that is, the difference between U.S. Treasuries and the London Interbank Offered Rate [LIBOR] – dipped below 100 basis points (1%) last week for the first time since February 26. The spread’s downward momentum through the week reflected an easing of the worries that had driven so much capital to seek the shelter of gold.

London Gold Forward Spread (3-Month Vs. 12-Month)

 

That’s not to say that gold’s run is over or that we’ve finally turned the corner on the financial crisis. There’s an ebb and flow to any market, even those that are strongly trending.

A market like this, in fact, seems to be providing opportunities for gold buyers with modestly bullish sentiments. Some were seen this morning trading gold puts on June COMEX contracts.

With June gold at $880, the $850 puts changed hands at $26 an ounce. Put sellers gave buyers the right to put, or to sell, June gold futures at $850 through May 26. For taking that right, put buyers paid a per-contract premium of $2,600.

Here’s the reason the put sellers took on the risk. It’s unlikely that the puts would be exercised until, and unless, June gold dipped below the puts’ $850 strike price, so the put sellers either hold a conviction that prices will remain above that level, or, if they in fact sink through it, that the excursion will be short-lived.

If the puts remain out-of-the-money for the next month, the sellers get to keep the premium and the put expires unexercised. If futures are instead put to the option grantors, they’d end up with a long position at an effective purchase price of $824. Subsequent price advances in June futures above $824, if they occur, would engender gains for the option writers. Of course, losses would be open-ended if prices collapse.

More glass-half-full optimism brought to you by your friendly neighborhood options marketplace.

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

================================================

Have A Great Afternoon & Good Investing! – jschulmansr

================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

The Party Is Over For Stocks

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Looks like the party is over! Major follow thru selling today, the Dow currently down 280 points and below 7500 at 7492. The resistance at 8000 was just to much and I think we have put in the top of this Bear Market rally/correction. As I mentioned before a lot of foolish sheeple are going to be panicking very quickly. I have been telling you to buy Gold and Precious Metals for a long time now and today’s articles will give you some more good reasons you should listen. Silver currently is flashing a Big BUY signal and when everything is said and done, I believe Silver will well outperform Gold on a percentage basis. I am using this opportunity to continue loading up on producers and I’m telling you, (CDE) Couer D’Alene Mines under a buck ($1) is looking mighty good! As always consult your financial advisor, read the prospectus, and do your due diligence before making any investments. Don’t be a “sheeple”. I also do my trend analysis thru INO.com and below is why… Good Investing! – jschulmansr – Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

          S&P Video Analysis:                                Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

 

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

As History Repeats Itself, Time to Buy Gold and Silver – Seeking Alpha

By: Peter Cooper of Arabian Money.net

 

 History does not repeat but it does rhyme, said Mark Twain. For an excellent

assessment of what a stock market crash can mean for the future we have only to turn to The Great Crash 1929 by Professor JK Galbraith.

It is all there, a complete repeat of the run up to the stock market crash of last autumn, and its consequences – thus far. There was the Florida real estate crash as a prelude to the main act, and then a 50 per cent plunge in the Dow Jones in late 1929, just like the one in 2008.

March rally

March 1930 saw a huge rally in stock prices. March 2009 has just given us the biggest rally since 1974 (a previous market crash year). But hold on a minute, what does JK Galbraith tell us happened next?

In 1930 stocks weakened a little in April and then moved sideways into June when they plunged down again. Then they continued falling month after month for the next two years.

Our governments know this, and it does help explain the rush to push money into the economy by means fair and uncertain. The aim is clearly to break the cycle and avoid the down trend.

But will it be successful? Nobody really knows. Is it worth trying? Yes, but the evidence so far is that the Great Recession is tracking a course that is out-of-control, or rather following a pattern last seen in the 1930s.

Perhaps we should be more optimistic, and think that something more like the 1970s ‘lost decade’ is upon us. 1974 was a terrible year for global stock markets and was followed by stagflation – a mixture of low growth and high inflation.

Inflation

Indeed, inflation is the only way to bail out an economy consumed by debt. In the 1930s debt deflation was allowed to take its disastrous course with public spending cuts and trade barriers making an already deteriorating cycle considerably worse.

However, anybody who has just bought into the stock market rally should really think about selling and staying out for a while. This is a time to park money in gold and silver and even exit cash, although you might care to note that cash and precious metals were the best performing asset class of the 70s, while in the 30s gold was the real star.

 

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Silver is Quietly Flashing a Buy Signal, But Buyer Beware- Seeking Alpha

By: Harold Goodman

Anyone who follows the silver market knows that the fundamentals of silver are incredibly strong, long term. Since most silver is mined as a byproduct of base metal mining, and base metal prices are currently depressed by the global recession, inventories of base metals are high, and silver supply is shrinking. Many less profitable mines are closing down. Silver recently went into backwardation, which could indicate delivery problems are imminent in the physical silver market.

The US government currently holds no silver bullion at all, down from five billion ounces immediately after WWII. Above ground silver supplies are currently estimated to be one billion ounces, compared to five billion ounces of gold. This includes silver in tableware, jewelry, and other sources that will never be available on the open market.

For the purposes of this analysis, I will use SLV, the silver ETF, because it is convenient and easy to chart, but keep in mind, this is paper silver, not bullion, and its investment characteristics are completely different. It is supposed to be backed by silver bullion, but if you read the fine print, it may also hold futures, cash, and is allocated to custodians and sub-custodians which cannot be audited. It is designed to track the spot price of silver, but when the spot price of silver falls significantly below the mean, you will find that physical silver dealers will increase their premium over spot rather than drop the price. Holders of SLV cannot demand delivery of the underlying physical silver bullion bars.

On August 25^th, 2008 the 50 day moving average of SLV crossed and fell below the 200 day moving average. This is know by technical analysts as the “death cross” and signifies a coming fall in price. SLV closed that day at $13.33

On October 27^th, the price of SLV closed at $8.85 during the panic selling of autumn 2008, a 33.6% drop in two months.

Last Friday, March 27^th, 2009, for the first time since August 25^th, the 50 day moving average of SLV crossed back above the 200 day MA, which could signal a coming runup in price. SLV closed at $13.15

I don’t know what term the technical analysts use for that, so I will call it the “life cross” until someone tells me the correct term.

If SLV’s 50 day MA stays above the 200 day MA, rather than bouncing off it, this is an extremely bullish sign for SLV, and astute investors should be keeping a close eye on it for the next week. But here’s the rub.

Silver is the most highly manipulated market in existence, bar none, and the price of silver has been suppressed for many years. Gold is second to silver. The reason that silver is first apparently is that it is a much smaller market than gold, and can be manipulated using a much smaller number of silver futures contracts. Gold prices can be suppressed both by shorting gold futures, and by actual bullion sales by central banks, but these sales are becoming fewer and smaller as central bank gold reserves are reportedly running low, and even those nations with ample supplies of bullion won’t be willing to part with it at the suppressed price, now that governments worldwide are printing money like it’s going out of style.

The best body of work on silver manipulation by far is the writings of Ted Butler, available here.

Check out his articles on February 8, 2009 and March 16, 2009.

Short term traders like to follow the 12 day EMA and 26 day EMA.

On July 29^th, 2008 the 12 day EMA of SLV crossed below the 26 day EMA, signaling a coming drop in price. SLV closed that day at $17.19 Three months later, SLV hit its bottom of $8.85 on October 27^th , a drop of 48.4% in three months.

On December 12^th, 2008 the 12 day EMA of SLV crossed back above the 26 day EMA, signaling a coming runup in price, and has been above it ever since. SLV closed that day at $10.14

On February 23^rd, 2009 SLV peaked out at $14.34, an increase of 41.4% in 2 ½ months.

On March 17^th, 2009 the 12 day EMA of SLV bounced off the 26 day EMA, and has remained above it ever since, a bullish sign. SLV closed that day at $12.60, and its most recent close on March 27^th was $13.15

If the 12 day EMA can stay above the 26 day EMA, look out above!

The following chart shows the long and short positions of various commodities on the Comex as reported by the CFTC for the week of March 16, 2009. Thanks to Mark J Lundeen for the chart. It shows that the net long/short position in silver is 100% short, compared to gold at 63%. I would consider this as prima facie evidence that the CFTC is not doing their job in preventing manipulation of the commercial silver market.

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Concentrated Shorts Proven To Supress Gold and Silver – GATA

Source: GATA.org – Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

GATA Board of Directors member Adrian Douglas, editor of the Market Force Analysis letter (http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/), has combined data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to show that the suppression of the prices of gold and silver in the last several years correlates exactly with the growing concentration of the short positions held by two U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase and HSBC.

Short of the official admissions of the gold price suppression scheme collected and published by GATA over the years, Douglas’ report is probably the best proof yet, and certainly the most detailed. Douglas’ report is titled “Pirates of the COMEX” and you can find it in PDF format at GATA’s Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/PIRATES-OF-THE-COMEX.pdf

GATA’s supporters may be wearying of our many similar requests, but only persistence pays off, so we ask you to print copies of Douglas’ report and send them — by regular mail, not e-mail, which is ignored — to your U.S. senators and representatives with a covering letter requesting an explanation as to why nothing is being done to stop this market manipulation. For our friends outside the United States, please send copies with similar letters to your own national legislators.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and

you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

 

 

=========================================================My note: As my friend Trader Dan says-

“Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts.” –Trader Dan Norcini

I think it’s time for a “short squeeze” and take back some of the money the “pirates” have stolen

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That’s it for now-Have a Great Monday!- Good Investing- jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!=========================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

The Battle is Still Raging!

Tags

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My apologies for the 2 day gap in posts, was attending some high-level economic conferences and was unable to make any posts. Well the rest of the retracement has occurred for the Stock Market so we are at a citical juncture here. Personally I think this is a huge Bear Trap. It is a pretty normal bull retracement in a bear market. everyone wants to believe the bottom is in and I better get in now while I can before I “miss” it. Everyone keeps forgetting what is about to happen. The dreaded “I” word. The hidden tax on all of our money, inflation. If you listen carefully the ones “in the know” are already preparing for it. Today’s first article shows the fact that inflation is coming and our biggest holder of U.S. debt is growing very concerned. On the gold and precious metals charts we are seeing a drop today which I think is mostly exuberance spilling over from the stock market with investors seeling some of their Gold to play the Stock Market. We may have a head and shoulders forming after a double top which would be bearish for Precious Metals and convince a lot of weak knees to give up and exit out of the markets. However I think this is going to be a reverse of the Stock Market and prices are consolidating while waiting for the buig Inflation shoe to drop. For my own portfolio I am hanging tight and using this as an opportunity to accumulate more shares in the Precious Metals Producers, and also slowing shifing some funds back into Oil related investments. One market that has some real potential soon will be Natural Gas as it has been lagging so far behind Crude and Gasoline. Be Patient and choose wisely! On that note I have recently found and became a member of INO.com. With their patented “triangle  technology” trend analysis has never become easier! INO TV offers free – yes that’s right Free trading courses, news and video delivered right to your computer screen. INO Market Club offers  brand new talking charts- charts that actually talk to you! Awesome! Good Investing! – jschulmansr

Now Check this Out… Talking Charts!

========================================================

Sneak Peek At Our New

MarketClub Charts

March 20, 2009 · By Adam · Filed Under MarketClub Tips & Talk 

This week we have something very special to show you. We are pulling back the curtains to give you a sneak peek at MarketClub’s new charting program.

There’s nothing to buy, so all you have to do is look and listen. Did I say listen? How can you listen to a chart? Well, these patent pending charts include our new “Talking Chart” feature.

Can you imagine a chart that actually talks to you and tells exactly what’s going on in any market you are looking at or following?  Well, now you don’t have to imagine anymore as this is valuable feature is available at no extra cost in the latest version of MarketClub.

In addition to our “Talking Chart” feature, we have also improved our “Trade Triangle” technology so that it is even more powerful than before.

I think you’ll be impressed. Please take a few minutes out of your day to see how our new charts are revolutionary in many ways.

Please feel free to contact us on our blog about these new charts. We expected to go live with them any day now and you’re going to love them.

All the best,

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

 

 

========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

 Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

========================================================

Source: Financial Post

Drop U.S. dollar as reserve: China

IMF asset instead

Alan Wheatley, Reuters  Published: Tuesday, March 24, 2009

China proposed yesterday a sweeping overhaul of the global monetary system, outlining how the U. S. dollar could eventually be replaced as the world’s main reserve currency by the IMF’s Special Drawing Right.

The SDR is an international reserve asset created by the International Monetary Fund in 1969 that has the potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency, said Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China.

“The role of the SDR has not been put into full play, due to limitations on its allocation and the scope of its uses. However, it serves as the light in the tunnel for the reform of the international monetary system,” he said.

Mr. Zhou diplomatically did not refer explicitly to the U. S. dollar. But his speech spells out Beijing’s dissatisfaction with the primacy of the U. S. currency, which Mr. Zhou says has led to increasingly frequent global financial crises since the collapse in 1971 of the Bretton Woods system of fixed but adjustable exchange rates.

“The price is becoming increasingly high, not only for the users, but also for the issuers of the reserve currencies. Although crisis may not necessarily be an intended result of the issuing authorities, it is an inevitable outcome of the institutional flaws,” Mr. Zhou said.

Jim O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs in London, said “over time, as the world is taken off the steroids of the over-leveraged U. S. consumer, you can’t have the same dollar dependence as we have had. But who can provide it? And the answer is, if it functioned properly, maybe the SDR could have a much bigger role,” he said.

A super-sovereign reserve currency would not only eliminate the risks inherent in fiat currencies such as the dollar — which are backed only by the credit of the issuing country, not by gold or silver — but would also make it possible to manage global liquidity, Mr. Zhou argued.

“When a country’s currency is no longer used as the yardstick for global trade and as the benchmark for other currencies, the exchange-rate policy of the country would be far more effective in adjusting economic imbalances. This will significantly reduce the risks of a future crisis.”

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My Note: If you read between the lines, this does not bode well for the Treasury and Fed Debt offerings which will have to be issued to pay for all of the bailout, Tarp, and economic stimulus packages. This also doesn’t bode well for the U.S. Dollar in particular, but the other currencies also. As the largest holder of our debt, China is not happy about their investments losing value as the dollar depreciates. Next, China along with Russia are both buying and adding to their respective gold reserves! They are expecting massive inflation, why are we not hearing any talk about that in the nightly news?-jschulmansr

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Gold Stocks’ Time To Shine- Seeking Alpha

By: Brad Zigler of Hard Assets Investor

Real-time Inflation Indicator (per annum): 8.6%

In a recent column (“Gold Traders Whipsawed” at), we said we’d let you know when the gold/mining stock ratio tipped in favor of the miners. Well, we’re telling you now. The GLD/GDX ratio decisively broke through its 200-day moving average late last week.

The SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE Arca: GLD) is a grantor trust affording its holders an undivided interest in vault bullion. The Market Vectors Gold Miners Index ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX) is a portfolio comprising nearly three dozen mining issues. With GLD’s price in the numerator, a decline in the quotient represents appreciation in gold stocks relative to gold itself.

 

 

Gold (GLD)/Gold Stocks (GDX) Ratio

Both bullion and mining shares are higher for the year – GLD’s up 8.2% and GDX has risen 10.8% – but the momentum, for now at least, is with equities. Buoyancy in the broader equity market is providing lift for the miners, but it’s good to keep in mind that there’s a 75% correlation between GDX and GLD. Gold is, for the most part, gold.

Gold’s rising price has a leveraged effect on the stocks, as every dollar above a miner’s production cost flows to its bottom line.

Back in February, we highlighted one GDX component with very low production costs (“A Particularly Healthy Gold Stock“).

Is this the time to buy miners? Well, if you believe there’s more upside in gold (keep that correlation in mind) and want to ride the draft of the current equity market rally, perhaps. Taking a whack at GDX removes some of the stock-picking risk.

Reflation Update: The Real-time Inflation Indicator spiked 1.3% higher last week, reaching a level not seen since January.

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Gold Holders – Be Patient – Seeking Alpha

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne of Trendsman Research

In the wake of the Fed’s announced record monetization, some gold bugs remarked about the significance of the date and decision. Moreover, the airwaves were littered with commodity bulls (not the familiar faces). There were a few non-gold bug analysts on live television showing currency from Zimbabwe and relating the Fed decision to what has transpired in Zimbabwe. Hyperbole aside, Fed policy of currency debasement and inflation of the money supply is hardly anything new. News is important in that it highlights and reinforces trends. It doesn’t create them.

Keen market watchers and seasoned Fed observers were hardly surprised at the Fed action. We all knew it was coming. The question was when. Remember, news highlights trends. Commodities had been forming a bottom for five months. Just two weeks prior we wrote about our positive near term view on commodities. How about Gold? It rose from trough to peak over 40% in just four months. It seems that only the shorts were surprised.

Now to expound upon last week’s missive, reflation isn’t always so advantageous for the precious metals, especially gold. That holds true for both the economy and markets. With stocks and commodities now recovering, money is to be put to work in those markets and also potentially diverted away from gold. We aren’t expecting a full-blown correction in Gold but rather a consolidation that, for a matter of time diverts attention (like an idling engine) away from itself as it prepares for major liftoff.

This is a temporary respite in a bear market and in an economy stuck in deflation. The first period of deflation (and strengthening dollar) in the Great Depression lasted three years. The Yen increased nearly 100% from early 1990 to early 1995. This bout of deflation isn’t even one year old yet. In other words, don’t expect commodities to enter a cyclical bull market anytime soon. There isn’t enough demand on the horizon. The recession and accompanying deflation should last into 2010. It may be a while before both run their course, thereby allowing an inflationary recovery to begin in earnest.

In conclusion, be aware that the current rebound in stocks and commodities, though large, is just a temporary recovery. A single news event won’t change that nor alleviate the current deflationary pressures on the economy. Finally, holders of gold and gold shares should be patient. The major breakout will occur this year, though not within the time expectations of the gold bugs.

========================================================

My Note: When Gold and Precious Metals prices do take off and they will, it will be faster than anyone has anticipated. Use this time to buy now, increase your holdings. -Good Investing – Jschulmansr

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·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

========================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A new week and I have a new warning… What I mentioned before in previous posts is starting to happen. We are now starting to hear the “bottom” is coming in place for Stocks and the Economy, everyone from Benanke to many “name” financial advisors are starting to jump on the bandwagon. Sure enough this morning the “sheeple” started to put their money back into stocks. The Dow is currently up 70 points and Gold was down $13.00. Nasdaq hasn’t ever gotten out of the negative yet today. This is how I see it- we will probably have a nice rally at least this morning as smaill investors pile in thinking “we are close to the bottom or at it so lets get in now so we won’t miss it!” My key resistance points for the Dow, are around 7300- 7320 and the S&P 500, 770-775. If those are cleared we have the potential for a really big up day. However if the markets can not successfully get above those points, Bang! the Bear Trap is sprung!. Be careful out there and Buy Gold now while you can still catch the market before we run to $1050, and later by end of year $1250-$1500, maybe even higher as inflation will really be clicking in from all the money flooding the world economies now. I especially like the Precious Metals producers as a whole many good bargains to be found out there. Even bullion bought now should produce minimum $100+ oz. gain over the next few months. Be a wise and prudent investor – not a “fool”. Remember a “fool” and his money are soon parted! Good Investing- jschulmansr 

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

=========================================================

 

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!Schedule automatic tweets, Thankyou for following me messages and much more! Be More Productive- Free signup… TweetLater.com

 

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Guru’s Say Bottom Near – Financial Times

Source: Financial Times

Gurus say bottom near

By Pauline Skypala

Published: March 15 2009 09:36 | Last updated: March 15 2009 09:36

 

He said much the same in October last year, so in a video interview, FTfm asked why he thought he was right this time. Opening with the remark that it is “very difficult” to get market timing right, Mr Bolton said he looked at three factors: the history of bull and bear market cycles; sentiment – how investors are behaving and thinking; and valuations. Those reached an extreme back in November that he thought might have marked the final low, and again in the first week of March.

“That is why I think we are pretty near the end of this pretty awful bear market,” he said.

He is not talking about a bear market rally, he added, but the start of a new bull market. Mr Bolton, and Fidelity International, generally advise against trying to time markets. Investors should hold on through thick and thin to avoid missing out on the best days that often come when the market turns, they have frequently said.

Mr Bolton now appears to be timing markets. He admits to being “a bit foolhardy going against my own advice” but remains consistent in putting out the message that it is hard to time markets and most private investors should employ a buy and hold strategy.

He believes all risk assets are now attractive, not just equities. The only one that looks less attractive is government bonds, where there could be a bubble building, he says.

He is not alone in his assessment. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, told clients in a newsletter last week to adopt a reinvestment plan and stick to it.

GMO made one very large reinvestment move in October and has a schedule for further moves contingent on future market declines, he says, in the belief that a few large steps are better than many small ones.

Mr Grantham is not brimming with confidence but says it is vital to have a battle plan, otherwise paralysis sets in. He points out that in June 1933 the US market rallied 105 per cent in six months long before all the bad news had played out. Similarly, in 1974, the UK market jumped by 148 per cent in five months. “How would you have felt then with your large and beloved cash reserves?” he asks.

In common with Mr Bolton, he advises the market is a powerful discounting mechanism. Investors who wait for light at the end of the tunnel will miss the upturn.

The market turns “when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before”.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

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Fed’s Bernanke sees recession ending ‘this year’ – Market Watch

Source: Market Watch

Calls health of banks key, but worries about lack of ‘political will’

By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The chairman of the Federal Reserve said in a rare interview televised Sunday that the U.S. recession will come to an end “probably this year,” but he also warned that the nation’s 8.1% unemployment rate will continue to rise.

Appearing on the CBS network’s “60 Minutes,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told correspondent Scott Pelley that concerted efforts by the government likely averted a depression similar to the 1930s. He also said the nation’s largest banks are solvent and that he doesn’t expect any of them to fail.

At the same time, Bernanke expressed concern the U.S. might lack the political will to take further measures to shore up the financial system. Although he said he believes the largest banks are solvent and that “they are not going to fail,” Bernanke said a full recovery won’t take place until the system is stabilized.

“The lesson of history is that you do not get a sustained economic recovery as long as the financial system is in crisis,” he said. Bernanke noted that banks are unable to raise cash from private investors as is normally the case because of fears about their solvency.

The 15-month recession, which began in December 2007, is set to become the longest in the post-World War II era. The downturn took a sharp turn for the worst last September after the collapse of the Wall Street brokerage Lehman Brothers.

“Lehman proved that you cannot let a large internationally active firm fail in the middle of a financial crisis,” Bernanke said.

The same error was made 80 years ago when the U.S. government let thousands of banks fail, contributing to the Great Depression, said Bernanke, a former economics professor who’s extensively studied the 1930s. Another big mistake the Fed made back then was to let the supply of money contract, he said.

Since the crisis exploded last fall, Bernanke has sought to avoid both mistakes. The Fed and Treasury have committed hundreds of billons to the bailouts of banks, insurers, mortgage lenders and other entities. While Bernanke said he understood the public’s outrage at the cost, he said they were necessary to prevent a more severe contraction and steeper job losses.

Bernanke also pointed out the bailout aid doesn’t come directly from taxpayers and is “more akin to printing money than it is borrowing.” He said the Fed can adopt that approach because the economy is very weak and inflation is low.

Once the economy begins to recover, Bernanke said, the Fed will have to raise interest rates and reduce the supply of money to “make sure we have a recovery that does not involve inflation.”

The Fed chairman said the recovery won’t begin until early 2010 and will take time to gather steam. He reiterated his call for an overhaul of the nation’s financial regulations — the first in decades — to prevent similar financial conflagrations.

Bernanke is the first sitting Fed chairman to conduct a television interview in 20 years.

Jeffry Bartash is a reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.

=======================================================

What Do Those Who Called The Downturn Think? – MarketWatch

Source: MarketWatch

OUTSIDE THE BOX

A few who got it right

Commentary: What do those who called the

downturn think?

By Howard Gold

ORLANDO, Fla. (MarketWatch) — The financial markets are littered with the broken reputations of so-called “experts” who failed to anticipate the global financial crisis, or the recession and bear market that have followed.

Finance ministers, central bankers, Wall Street strategists, famed economists, hotshot hedge-fund bosses, former star mutual fund managers and, yes, journalists and cable-television bloviators all dropped the ball big time in the years leading up to the current meltdown.

But a handful of brave souls got it right. Economist Nouriel Roubini, analyst Meredith Whitney and some others have gone on to fame and fortune for warning about the disaster to come.

They weren’t alone. Economist Gary Shilling, options specialist Larry McMillan, strategist Sandy Jadeja and market technician Dan Sullivan all saw a big bear market ahead and advised moving money to the sidelines before the roof collapsed. We caught up with them in the midst of this week’s rally to get their take on what’s ahead.

Most believe we’re getting pretty close to a market bottom, but we’ll have to go through more pain before we get there. None thinks the current rally is for real.

Shilling, a longtime Cassandra and publisher of “Insight,” has warned about the housing and credit bubbles for years and repeatedly predicted that the current recession would be deep. His 13 predictions for 2008 were right on the money.

Excess housing

And guess what? He’s still bearish on housing. Shilling estimates there’s excess inventory of 2.4 million homes on the market and “it’s taking a long time to work that [down.]”

That’s why home prices have a way to go before they bottom: He’s looking for a peak-to- trough decline of 40% in housing prices nationwide. As of the fourth quarter, the 20-city Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index had fallen 27% from its high in 2006.

At the bottom, Shilling expects some 25 million borrowers will be underwater on their mortgages. That’s half of all mortgages and one-third of all owned houses in the U.S. Similarly, he doesn’t think the current recession will end until at least early 2010. That would make this the longest recession by far since World War II.

He thinks the market might actually bottom some time this summer at around 600 on the S&P 500 – at 15 times estimated earnings of $40 — six months or so before the economy does. But he doesn’t see prosperity just around the corner.

“It took about 30 years to build up the credit bubble,” he says. “My guess is, five to ten years to unwind this.”

“What it probably means,” he explains, “is longer and deeper recessions and shorter recoveries — and reflecting that, shorter, less exuberant rallies and more frequent and deeper bear markets.”

Thanks, Gary.

Short-term concerns

Options specialist Larry McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis Corp., typically looks at trading patterns over weeks and months rather than years. But he still doesn’t like what he sees.

“I don’t see a bottom in this leg here,” he says. “I find this market to be strangely calm. People have not panicked. All the pros are picking the bottom.”

That, he argues, means investors haven’t capitulated yet, the true sign of a market bottom.

McMillan has been cautious since late 2007, although he has traded in and out of rallies. He can’t say where the ultimate bottom will be. “I don’t have a target,” he says. “I’m looking for a spike in volatility that washes this thing out.”

He’s waiting for the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index, or VIX, to shoot up into the 60s from the 40s and 50s now, and then fall back. “That to me would be capitulation,” he says.

Until then, he advises being out of the market — or staying short.

Market projections

Technical analyst Sandy Jadeja, chief market strategist for ODL Markets in London, did have a target: 6425 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On March 9, the Dow hit 6440 at one point before Tuesday’s massive rally.

He thinks Wednesday’s higher close for the Dow is a good sign for the short run. The Dow was up nicely Thursday morning on retail sales data that were slightly better than expected. He’s looking for a rally that would take the Dow back up to 8300.

But don’t count on much more than that, he cautions.

He says 6400 is “a critical level going back to 1987, the 1930s and the 2002 lows.” He expects it to be retested, and if the market can’t hold that support level, then it could go a lot lower.

He thinks the bear market could hit bottom in 2010 or even 2011 or 2012. “5300 is the most probable low,” he says. But Fibonacci and Elliot Wave analysis — tools used by technical analysts — may point toward 3700-3800 as the ultimate bottom. Ouch.

Less gloomy

Another prominent technician isn’t quite that gloomy. Dan Sullivan, who has published “The Chartist” newsletter for four decades and has beaten the market consistently over the last 25 years, according to the “Hulbert Financial Digest,” advised clients to go 100% into cash as early as January 2008.

He, too, is looking for a 15%-20% rally that would take us into the 800s on the S&P 500, but then he says we’ll retest Monday’s S&P close of around 676.

“I think it’s a bear-market rally, so I’m advising subscribers to sell into the rally [or stay on the sidelines],” he tells me.

Like Shilling, he expects to see a market bottom or new buy signal some time during the summer. But for now, he says, “this is not a good time to buy.”

That’s my take, too. Although the Dow and S&P have lost more than half their value — no doubt the lion’s share of what we’re going to see in this bear market — I think we have more to go on the down side in view of the knotty problems we face.

So, if you’re young and saving for a distant retirement, this isn’t a bad time to make regular contributions to a 401 (k) plan.

But if you’ll need that money sooner, I’d keep my powder dry, and wait for those who really got it right to change their minds.

Howard R. Gold is executive editor of MoneyShow.com. The opinions expressed here are his own.

=======================================================

Joe Foster: Chemistry Is Good For Gold – Seeking Alpha

Source: SeekingAlpha and The Gold Report

In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, geologist Joseph M. Foster—a Van Eck Associates portfolio manager who also leads its International Investors Gold Fund—sees nothing but good news for gold in the months and years to come. Joe isn’t holding his breath for mania to set in, but he does see a mix blending that will get gold “firing on all cylinders.” Once a declining dollar, increasing inflation and an improving economy fill the combustion chamber, all it will take is a sustained spark of optimism for gold to forge ahead.

The Gold Report: We appreciate the opportunity to talk with you fresh from site visits in Mexico and the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference in Florida. What do you see for gold in ’09 and ’10?

Joe Foster: Our outlook is quite favorable. We’re into a new phase of this bull market that’s been going on since 2001. The credit crisis, everything that’s happening to the global economy and the reaction of the governments and the monetary authorities set up a very, very positive environment for gold, not only in the near term, but going out many, many years.

TGR:What launched this the new phase?

JF: Earlier in the cycle, it was more an inverse dollar play. We’ve had a bull market in gold. The dollar had embarked on a bear market and gold reacted to the inverse of that. What’s changed is that the level of risk to the financial system has elevated dramatically and we’ve come into an environment where even if we have a strong dollar, we can also have a strong gold price. Investors are genuinely frightened and it’s brought a whole new dynamic to the gold market.

TGR:Where do you see this taking gold?

JF: I’d have to split it into a near-term and a longer-term outlook. First of all, looking at the near term, gold is finding support now because we are in crisis mode. The financial system has not been fixed yet. The economy is in decline. In that environment, investors are seeking gold as a safe haven. They’re also seeking out the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. So that’s creating investment demand for the metal.

Jewelry demand, however, has fallen off a cliff—it’s almost non-existent right now and a lot of scrap is coming into the market. Two dynamics in the gold market are pulling against each other: strong investment demand and very weak jewelry demand. I would see gold somewhat range-bound as long as we’re in crisis mode, being pulled by these two factors. We test $1,000, we pulled back, we’re sitting here around $940 an ounce. It wouldn’t surprise me to see it range-bound between $800 and $1,100 an ounce for the next six months or so until we see some sort of resolution to the situation.

As we look further out, you have to wonder if everything the government is doing will work and whether the laws of unintended consequences play out down the road. Will all this stimulus create inflationary pressure looking out into 2010 and beyond as the economy starts to get back on track? I happen to think it will. At some point, it will come time for the government to withdraw the liquidity they’ve put in the system. However, I think we’ll be in a slow-growth environment that will make that very, very difficult.

We won’t have the access to credit that we had in the past. Credit creation fueled a lot of the growth over the last decade. That will be missing in the next growth phase, so I think we’ll be faced with a low-growth environment that will make it difficult for the Fed to raise rates and rein in liquidity. As the velocity of money begins to pick up when the economy starts to grow a bit, I think we will see some serious inflationary pressures. That will give gold the next leg to stand on and lift it to the next level, which I think will be much higher than what we’ve seen so far.

TGR: In essence, aren’t we going back to an inverse play based on the U.S. dollar? That was the first phase. Now we’re in this crisis phase. As we move into an inflationary era, aren’t we just hedging against the dollar at that point?

JF: Yes, that’s another aspect of what I’m talking about, too. How does the dollar play out in this scenario? As long as we’re in crisis mode, people think of the dollar as a safe haven. As soon as we see a bit of light at the end of the tunnel, equities and other investments will begin to attract investment dollars. At that point, I think money flows out of the dollar. So the dollar could resume its downward trend with a better economic outlook and that would be positive for the gold market.

TGR:So we’d go back to dollar going down, gold going up.

JF: Yes, back to that situation. And then when you layer some inflationary expectations on that, you get gold firing on all cylinders.

TGR:Is that when we begin to see mania or is that the next phase?

JF: As markets go, there probably will be a mania in the gold market as well, but I would guess that’s a number of years off. Who knows? But at least several years off.

TGR: What will trigger the mania? If we’ve made it through the banking and financial and economic crises, and are looking for money to fly back into equities and devalue the dollar, why is mania several years off? Why wouldn’t it be happening as these other shifts begin to occur?

JF: The economy needs to be doing better. Money is too tight. I just don’t think there’s enough liquidity, frankly, to support a mania in the current environment. We need a more positive economic environment to get a true mania going and pull everybody from mom and pop up to the high net worth investors to the institutions, everybody jumping in with both feet. I don’t think there’s enough liquidity in the system at this point, or perhaps it’s all on the sidelines.

TGR: How interesting. So maybe fear won’t spark the mania. You’re almost saying the mania will start when there’s a little bit more optimism.

JF:That’s right, if it happens it will probably occur with more optimism and more entrenched inflationary expectations.

TGR:When you talk about gold, are you talking about bullion or gold stocks?

JF: I’m talking about both, definitely. There’s a different dynamic playing out with the gold stocks because we have to look at earnings and operating risk and political risk and all these other things, but historically there’s been a very high correlation between gold and the gold shares, and I expect that to continue throughout this market.

TGR:Will we see more of that in inflation or in crisis mode?

JF: As far as gold shares go, their crisis was the second half of 2008. They got caught up in the downdraft of the credit crisis and the equities collapse. The stocks have roughly doubled since they bottomed in October of 2008. Gold is up roughly 25% to 30% and we’re seeing money come into the gold sector. A lot of equity financing amongst the gold companies lately tells you there are investment dollars available to the sector. So I think the gold market and gold equities are out of crisis mode. They’re being recognized as an alternative, as a safe-haven hedge.

TGR:And an inflation play, I imagine.

JF: Yeah. The inflation play, or at least a flavor of it, will be with us. People see the Fed printing money to support the financial system, which creates a level of inflationary fear already—and it’s very, very early days. Then the next phase will be if and when we get evidence that inflation is actually taking place, when we see various economic measures telling us that inflation is starting to pick up. Those fears will intensify then. Even though we’re in a deflationary environment at the moment, the seeds of inflation it are already there.

TGR:How do you see silver reacting relative to gold?

JF: Looking at its performance over the last three or four months, I think it’s shown itself to be a currency hedge and a currency alternative like gold. Silver had a tough time last year. It tumbled with the base metals. But again, since October, the performance has been good and we’re seeing high demand for the silver ETF, a shortage of coins and bars. So it’s acting as a currency alternative just like gold now.

TGR:What do you make of the shortage of the coins and the premiums to the spot price?

JF: It’s a small but growing corner of the market, so to me it’s an indicator of investor sentiment. It’s not that big a demand driver. When you look at the tonnage, it’s modest. But it tells me that the sentiment among investors, especially individuals, is very positive. From what I hear, it’s mainly high net worth individuals who are buying the stuff up with a long-term view. It’s quite a leap to go out and invest in physical gold. If a few are actually doing it, then many, many more are probably considering it.

TGR:Would you like to talk about some companies you currently own and think other investors should be considering?

JF:

Growth is a common theme among the larger companies that we overweight. We like a growth story because good news flow comes with growth. Hopefully, we can find managements that can deliver the growth and meet expectations for production and costs. Among the large caps, one of our favorites in that category would be

Goldcorp

(GG). They’re mining mainly throughout the Americas. Most of their mines are in politically safe areas. They’re great operators and are developing some deposits—one in Mexico, called Penasquito; and the other one in a JV with

Barrick Gold Corporation

(ABX) in the Dominican Republic, called Pueblo Viejo. They’re going to drive Goldcorp’s growth for the next several years, and we see some good numbers coming out of Goldcorp looking forward.

TGR:And moving down the ladder?

JF:Going down into the mid-tier group, I guess Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD) would be our favorite in that category. Their operations are in West Africa. Randgold’s growth has come organically, which is really the best kind of growth. They discovered the properties where they’re mining and developing, and that’s the cheapest way to add ounces to the portfolio. Currently they’ve got a developing property in Senegal, which is early days but we see it turning in to a significant mine. Perhaps looking out three or four years, that will add significantly to their bottom line. It’s another internal discovery, so very cheap ounces coming on line for that company. Also, we’ve been to West Africa and Randgold is probably the best connected, knows the Continent probably better than any other company out there. So they’re one of our top mid-tier companies.

Going down to the small caps, we’re seeing exciting plays in several areas with the small caps, mainly in the Americas, particularly Canada. There’s been a resurgence of activity in Canada in some of the old mining camps. We’re seeing new discoveries and new developments that we’re very excited about. Mexico and other parts of Latin America look very favorable to us as well.

In Canada, one of the emerging producers would be Lake Shore Gold Corp (LSGGF.PK). In the Timmins camp, they’ve made a discovery where nobody thought to look before. And Timmins is historically one of the largest producing camps in North America, so there’s still gold to be found there. Lake Shore is developing an underground mine there that we think will be very profitable and should come on line over the next couple of years.

Another Canada small cap is Osisko Mining Corp (OSKFF.PK). They’re in the Val d’Or camp, an old mining camp. They’ve found a very large low-grade deposit that they’re developing there and I guess it will be the first large-scale, low-grade, world-class deposit that’s been developed in Val d’Or. The company just raised enough money to develop it. It’s going to be expensive, costing north of a half a billion dollars, but investors have shown confidence in the company and that they raised over $300 million just this month to build it. They’re well on their way to becoming the next gold producer.

TGR:Does Osisko have a 43-101 on that Val d’Or property?

JF: Yes, it has. After going through several iterations of their resource estimate, more recently they found a new zone they call the Barnett Zone. It’s higher grade than what they’ve found in the past, so it appears to be shaping as a sweetener that will enable them to get a more rapid payback once they begin production. The project is getting better as it moves along.

TGR:Does your website list the stocks you’re invested in?

JF: We publish the full portfolio twice a year with our semi-annual and annual reporting, so for the most recent you’d have to pull up our December 2008 report. Also, our website publishes our top 10 every month.

TGR:Do we do that through the site or we can find that on the site?

JF:Just go to vaneck.com and you can bring up a PDF. (http://vaneck.com/sld/vaneck//offerings/factsheets/IIG_Factsheet.pdf )

=======================================================

Be cautious out there, especially if going back into Stocks (even mining stocks), do your due diligence and stay tuned for more of the best news and views personally handpicked for my most valued readers! – Good Investing! – jschulmansr

=========================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

 

 

=========================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

 

Schedule automatic tweets, Thankyou for following me messages and much more! Be More Productive- Free signup… TweetLater.com

 

 

 

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investment gurus are lining up to call the bottom of the market. Anthony Bolton of Fidelity International did so last week, telling delegates at a pensions conference markets were at or near lows.

They’re At it Again? – Who’s Going to Win?

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Sorry, I missed everyone yesterday, it was a very interesting day making this one wonder if we are not seeing more hidden central bank selling in a desperate measure to hold Gold Prices down. Sooner or later the shorts will have to fill which I believe will happen somewhere around the $1050 – $1100 range giving a big pump up. Meanwhile today’s action, we are once again seeing continued downward pressure with Gold holding at the $890 to $900 range. Personally, I think we will hold here at the $880 to $900 level, build strength after the Gold coming on the market is absorbed. If we don’t hold here then $850 is the next very strong support level. We’re having a nice little upward correction in the stock markets and this may be the 20% retracement rally  traders have been looking for. Mark my words we will soon here remarks like the “bottom is in place for stocks” and “now” is the time to get in at these low levels. After they sucker everyone in then we will see the Stock markets continue in their downward channel. In the meantime take advantage of this to load up on your Gold. Especially since we’ll hear the “double top” formation is in place comments and everyone will be giving up on Gold and Silver. I personally think we are forming a new pennant formation like the one that was formed around the $700- $750 level which then took off to $1000+. Based on that this formation should be the launch pad up to the $1250 level. I am aggressively buying  Precious Metals Miners with current or about to come on line production, accumulating some more physical holdings and hanging tight. When I have confirmation I will be re-entering DGP for another ride to at least $1000. I will post when I enter that trade and if you are following me on Twitter you’ll be the first to know. Good Investing! -jschulmansr

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Here you go- Bottom Calling For the Stock Market already!Barron’s Calls a Bottom – Seeking AlphaSure, stocks could slide much further — but they probably won’t. By most measures, they are downright cheap.

 

 

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By: Eli Hoffman Senior Editor Seeking Alpha

Barron’s cover story this weekend basically calls a bottom to the bear, though not in quite so many words.

 After blaming Obama for much of stock market woes (“The lousy economy is the main factor, but stocks haven’t been helped by Obama administration proposals … It doesn’t help that the Street is calling this an “Obama bear market” and that some investors are looking to “Obama-proof” their portfolios…), Barron’s concedes that the president did get at least one thing right: stocks are cheap for investors with patience.

Barron’s says its research bears that out. Here’s why:

1. Stocks are cheap relative to P/E – a Citigroup economist’s 2009 earnings estimate for S&P 500 components puts their collective P/E ratio at more than 13, which is where a bunch of bear markets bottomed – except 1974, ’82 and ’87 when P/E went as low as 8.5. If we get down to 10, S&P could fall another 25% to 500 and DJIA around 5,000. But that probably won’t happen, because in previous downturns Treasury yields were much higher, and because another Citigroup analyst says he’s seeing signs of panic.
2. Stocks are cheap relative to GDP – at 60% of the $14T GDP, stocks are their cheapest relative to economic output since the early ’90s. But they’re still well higher than the lows of about 30-35% seen in the ’70s and early ’80s. Stocks are also cheap relative to book value – about 1.3 down from a high of 5 during the dot-com bubble.
3. Stocks are cheap relative to gold – S&P 500 is now worth about 75% of the price of an ounce, vs. a peak of more than 5x in 2000. Over the past 40 years, the average stocks-to-gold ratio has been 1.6.

There’s also a lot of cash on the sidelines, Barron’s says, noting money-market funds now hold $4T – almost half of the market cap of U.S. stocks, and double the amount in money-market funds two years ago.

Barron’s expects stocks in defensive industries like drugs (PFE, LLY, MRK, BMY, SGP) and consumer goods (HNZ, KFT, PG, KO, GIS) to benefit from a return of confidence.

For those prone to bottom calling, or not, here’s some more food for thought:

• Babak notes pessimism, as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly survey, is at record highs. A contrarian buy signal.
• Todd Sullivan says that a couple weeks of positive economic data could cause extreme pessimism to make a rapid about-face.
• Jason Schwartz thinks we’re in another bubble – one of uncertainty. Forget about buy-and-hold, he says – but short term gains on oversold stocks could be massive.
• Meanwhile Mike Stathis, while noting stocks are very close to “fair value,” for what that’s worth, doesn’t mean the market won’t go lower. In fact, it probably will.

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Here’s a nice piece with some good info about one of my personal longs (ABX).

Gold Mining or Gold Bullion Stocks for 2009? Seeking Alpha

By: Preston Poulter of PrestonPoulter.com

With Obama’s outrageous stimulus plans where the federal government is going to give out billions of dollars of handouts to the demand side of the economy, it’s no wonder gold is gaining ground while stocks have been falling. However, the question remains when is it time to buy? The answer is now. Gold has been consistently in an uptrend since October of last year. This is shown in the chart (click to enlarge) of a major gold ETF (GLD) [GLD: 90.57, -1.72 (-1.86%)] below. As you can see, gold is making a short short term pullback which signals a time to buy. With more talk of spending, including a world wide stimulus package, there is only further pressure on leading countries, currencies such as the U.S. dollar. These inflationary pressures may push gold to break the 2008 highs of around $1056.

But I’m not content just to park my money in physical gold and leave it at that. The trader in me wants to make a leveraged play to make the most off of gold’s bright future. Gold mining shares would seem an excellent play then. Not only do you get exposure to the gold market, but you get the benefits of stock ownership. In the past, whenever I would introduce the idea of owning gold as a form of investment, people would laugh my suggestion off because they just couldn’t imagine how anything would be better than owning “stocks for the long run.” Of course, they aren’t saying that anymore.

Gold mining shares are a nice compromise in terms of investment philosophy. If the American dollar does fall from grace as we goldbugs suggest, then owning shares of a gold mining company will be a tremendous boon. If the dollar continues to stubbornly hang on, and we somehow manage to resume normal economic growth, then I still own equities and should get the traditional benefits of equity appreciation.

The theory of owning gold mining equities is pretty easy, but the reality can be rather treacherous. Should you chose an established company with a lot of reserves or a junior company that mainly has a lot of promising prospects? One is more dependable and the other has the potential to be far more rewarding. It’s a similar discussion to blue chip versus tech stock debate we saw towards the end of last century.

For myself, I wanted an established company. Junior mining companies need a healthy amount of credit to develop their mining operations, and that wasn’t a chance I was prepared to take given the credit collapse of last year. That narrowed my focus down to just a couple of companies: Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX). I chose Barrick because it was the largest mining operation in the world and because, at the time, it was trading at a lower PE ratio than Newmont. As of this writing, Newmont has held up better over the last twelve months as shown in the graph below.

The relative stock performance of the two companies

Really the two companies were performing in tandem until the last month or so. Then Barrick shares had a rather sudden loss of value. Part of this loss of value is probably related to the loss Barrick announced for its fourth quarter. The company was able to sell its gold at a good profit margin, despite the temporary fourth quarter fall in the price of gold, but the company also wrote off a large portion of the value of an oil company it had acquired in the prior year. Like so many decisions that turn out wrongly, it seemed like a good idea at the time. Oil is a significant cost in the mining of gold, so it would make sense to buy an oil company in a rising oil market as a hedge against an increase in the cost of mining. Oil’s subsequent fall caught even Warren Buffett by surprise.

Having to write off the value of an oil company due to a collapse in the oil market seems like a one time event. So let’s instead compare Barrick and Newmont on their forward PE ratios, rather than the past twelve months. Barrick closed yesterday trading at a forward Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 15.71 compared to Newmont’s 16.43, which shows that you’re getting a discount for Barrick’s earnings over Newmont’s. The dividend ratio is even better: Barrick yields 1.4% compared to Newmont’s 1.0%. That’s 40% more money in your pocket for owning Barrick. Looking at these figures suggests Barrick is clearly the better company to own at these prices.

Going forward, it’s only a matter of time before the inflationary policies of the world’s central banks start forcing the gold price higher. However, Barrick will not perform well this year if we don’t see a return in the price of copper. There’s a significant amount of copper tied up in the gold ore that Barrick mines and in the past Barrick has been able to refine and sell it at a nice profit to held reduce the cost of its gold operations. For the year 2006-2008, Barrick was able to sell its copper at over $3 a pound and make a profit of over 50% on the sale. Yesterday copper closed around $1.65. If copper stays at that price the entire year, Barrick’s results will suffer. I’ve run a few simulations in a spreadsheet and here’s the numbers I get:

• If gold averages the year at $950 an ounce and copper stays at $1.65 a pound, Barrick will earn $.94 a share.
• If gold averages $1050 an ounce and copper stays at $1.65 a pound, Barrick will earn $1.78 a share.
• If gold averages $950 an ounce and copper returns to $3 a pound, Barrick will earn $1.51 a share.

As you can see, the return of copper to its former levels is going to be just as significant to Barrick’s earnings as gold appreciating in value.

Since analysts estimate a 2009 EPS of $1.85, Barrick could suffer a significant down year if we don’t start to see copper return soon.

Looking beyond a year, I believe Barrick is positioned well. It is set to make money from an appreciation in copper, oil, or gold. That makes it a great place to be as we feel the effects of inflation, but in the short term gold bullion may represent a better investment.

Disclosure: Barrick common stock represents a significant portion of my investment portfolio.-Preston Poulter

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Gold Continues to Gain Ground – Seeking Alpha

Source: Bullish Bankers  – Justin DiPietro

Given the massive amount of money being pumped into the global economic system, higher prices down the road are a given. It’s possible that prices may fall in the short term, but no currency can withstand a determined onslaught by its own central bank and national government for long. I consider gold a no brainer in this environment. It’s a store of value that does well both in inflationary times and, as we saw last year, in deflationary times.

-Justin DiPietro

Disclaimer: None.

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My Note: See the nice little wedge we are forming in the above chart, a little patience and then bang! $1250 here we come! – jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        What’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold

·          What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·          How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault here…

==========================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr