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A new week and I have a new warning… What I mentioned before in previous posts is starting to happen. We are now starting to hear the “bottom” is coming in place for Stocks and the Economy, everyone from Benanke to many “name” financial advisors are starting to jump on the bandwagon. Sure enough this morning the “sheeple” started to put their money back into stocks. The Dow is currently up 70 points and Gold was down $13.00. Nasdaq hasn’t ever gotten out of the negative yet today. This is how I see it- we will probably have a nice rally at least this morning as smaill investors pile in thinking “we are close to the bottom or at it so lets get in now so we won’t miss it!” My key resistance points for the Dow, are around 7300- 7320 and the S&P 500, 770-775. If those are cleared we have the potential for a really big up day. However if the markets can not successfully get above those points, Bang! the Bear Trap is sprung!. Be careful out there and Buy Gold now while you can still catch the market before we run to $1050, and later by end of year $1250-$1500, maybe even higher as inflation will really be clicking in from all the money flooding the world economies now. I especially like the Precious Metals producers as a whole many good bargains to be found out there. Even bullion bought now should produce minimum $100+ oz. gain over the next few months. Be a wise and prudent investor – not a “fool”. Remember a “fool” and his money are soon parted! Good Investing- jschulmansr
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Source: Financial Times
Gurus say bottom near
By Pauline Skypala
Published: March 15 2009 09:36 | Last updated: March 15 2009 09:36
He said much the same in October last year, so in a video interview, FTfm asked why he thought he was right this time. Opening with the remark that it is “very difficult” to get market timing right, Mr Bolton said he looked at three factors: the history of bull and bear market cycles; sentiment – how investors are behaving and thinking; and valuations. Those reached an extreme back in November that he thought might have marked the final low, and again in the first week of March.
“That is why I think we are pretty near the end of this pretty awful bear market,” he said.
He is not talking about a bear market rally, he added, but the start of a new bull market. Mr Bolton, and Fidelity International, generally advise against trying to time markets. Investors should hold on through thick and thin to avoid missing out on the best days that often come when the market turns, they have frequently said.
Mr Bolton now appears to be timing markets. He admits to being “a bit foolhardy going against my own advice” but remains consistent in putting out the message that it is hard to time markets and most private investors should employ a buy and hold strategy.
He believes all risk assets are now attractive, not just equities. The only one that looks less attractive is government bonds, where there could be a bubble building, he says.
He is not alone in his assessment. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, told clients in a newsletter last week to adopt a reinvestment plan and stick to it.
GMO made one very large reinvestment move in October and has a schedule for further moves contingent on future market declines, he says, in the belief that a few large steps are better than many small ones.
Mr Grantham is not brimming with confidence but says it is vital to have a battle plan, otherwise paralysis sets in. He points out that in June 1933 the US market rallied 105 per cent in six months long before all the bad news had played out. Similarly, in 1974, the UK market jumped by 148 per cent in five months. “How would you have felt then with your large and beloved cash reserves?” he asks.
In common with Mr Bolton, he advises the market is a powerful discounting mechanism. Investors who wait for light at the end of the tunnel will miss the upturn.
The market turns “when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before”.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
Source: Market Watch
Calls health of banks key, but worries about lack of ‘political will’
Investment gurus are lining up to call the bottom of the market. Anthony Bolton of Fidelity International did so last week, telling delegates at a pensions conference markets were at or near lows.