Black September is Here Again!

Tags

ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, cobalt, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, geothermal, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, Green Energy, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Jschulmansr, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, power, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU

Well the dog days of summer are over and September is blowing in. As the brilliant colors of autumn are starting to bloom with the leaves turning orange, gold and crimson; the leaves are starting to drop. That’s not all that is starting to fall, stocks are beginning their seasonal drop. If you haven’t taken profits please do so. We will see one more push up in stocks as they form the right shoulder of the head and shoulders formation on the chart. We have just finished the head with the right shoulder to follow (DJIA). 9200 (DJIA) is the first support, next roughly 9125-9080. A decisive break below the 50 day moving average or 9000 will be absolute confirmation of the new bear market downtrend. Commercial real estate is one of the next factors (shoe) about to drop. In addition the tax break for buying a new home is about to end, and the auto industry will not have cash for clunkers to fall back on. Late Breaking China has said NO to Credit derivatives and any losses from them. This is definitely not good for the US markets. So get rid of your more speculative stocks move to good yielding stocks in industries that people have to buy the products in good times or bad times. On the rest move your stops very close w/in 10% trailing. Maybe also look at selling covered calls or puts to lock in profits and earn a little income on the side.

Gold and Precious metals are coiled up ready to spring dramatically to the upside. Countdown is almost over, ignition commencing. We have a nice little triangle in Gold. Personally, I feel we will see the breakout to the upside after a little false breakout to the downside. In other words I fell it will go down like this, first we will see Gold test the $930 level as the Big 3 shorts make one more desperate effort to save themselves. However I feel that Gold will hold and climb back to $950 and then break above $965. When that happens the next resistance will be $980, then $1000, and then a 2nd test for the all time high at $1032. I think it will successfully break that level and hit at least $1250 before the end of the year with a potential to actually hit $1325. Keep accumulating companies with a low cost of production, junior and mid tier producers with current or about to start production. There are still many bargains which I will start featuring here on the blog.

I apologize for the recent lack of posts over the past month. Since I lost my day job, I decided to go back to school again so to speak by taking a few intensive trading and technical analysis courses to refresh up again. Since my new job will be trading the markets, I will be sharing my picks and option trades, forex trades, along with choice stock picks. Wishing all of us Great Investing! -jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!

twitter:    http://twitter.com/jschulmansr

twitter:    http://twitter.com/TweetsTheCash

twitter:    http://twitter.com/DareSomething

LinkedIn:  http://linkedin.com/in/jschulmansr

Facebook http://facebook.com/jschulmansr

==============================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• · Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• · What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• · Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• · When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

==============================================

John Licata Still Eyeing $1200 Gold in 2009 – GoldSeek.com

Bullish on gold since it carried a $400-per-ounce price tag, Blue Phoenix Chief Investment Strategist John Licata expects the king of metals to ring in the New Year with a $1,200-per-ounce crown. As he told The Gold Report in April, he still considers gold one of the best asset plays in the world. With recovery on the horizon, he’s also high on silver—in part because a pickup in manufacturing will drive up demand. While he says it’s premature to claim economic recovery, he isn’t looking to copper to serve as the traditional harbinger of a return from recession this time. His rationale? Good economic news—while too inconsistent to make recovery imminent—is already baked in to copper’s climb already this year.

The Gold Report: You weren’t too bullish on seeing a recovery in 2009 when we caught up with you in April. We’ve seen some good Q2 reporting from a variety of companies and some encouraging economic data. The government is starting to claim we’re in recovery. What’s your take on this?

John Licata: I do think we’ve seen some better domestic economic data, but it’s premature to think we’re totally out of the woods. In terms of corporate earnings, a lot of company profits might have surprised to the upside, but they’re still down 50% to 70% from quarters before or the prior year.

Many companies have been trying to compare Q1 and Q2. You’re still not seeing dramatic differences to the upside. Quite frankly, some companies are still living within cash flow and I think that’s one of the reasons why we could have a problem with supply and demand imbalances as we come to the end of 2009 and enter 2010.

Unemployment is likely to keep rising. Although the last numbers were much better than anticipated, I don’t think we’ve seen the green light that will cause people to start hiring again. We could hit 10% unemployment by the end of the year, and that’s going to be a precursor to some weaker retail heading into the holiday season. Net-net, you probably could put the word ‘inconsistent’ toward most of the economic data coming out of the U.S.

The industrial numbers that came out of China a couple of weeks ago [August 10] were actually below expectations as well. While everyone wants to be bullish and the data is somewhat better than many expected, it’s still not great. So I think to claim victory right now is definitely premature.

TGR: You mentioned a supply-demand imbalance. What do you see on that front?

JL: Companies are not putting money back into infrastructure. For that reason, once demand actually starts to increase, supply levels will be shockingly different from what people might expect.

TGR: Are you differentiating between the BRIC countries and North America in that regard?

JL: I’m not just looking at the BRIC countries as the barometer for the economic pulse. I don’t even think China is the saving grace for commodities. But I do think what is going to be indicative for a recovery is to see demand pick up, to start seeing jobs pick up again, more consistently; not just one month out of six. We need to see consistent job growth.

TGR: When do you think demand might pick up?

JL: Q3, perhaps Q4, is when we probably can start seeing demand start picking up and I think that’s when we’re going to start to see overall a global economic recovery. I’m skeptical that it can happen before Q4.

TGR: Is that worldwide demand pickup you’re anticipating?

JL: I’m referring to North America.

TGR: Can demand pick up before unemployment abates?

JL: It can happen before, but I think demand and employment will increase in tandem.

TGR: In our previous conversation, you compared the investment opportunities in oil, natural gas and gold to one another. At this point, which of these three sectors do you think offer the greatest return?

JL: Because of the upside that I think could happen over the next 12 months, I would rate natural gas first, gold second and oil third. For right now, I’m conservatively optimistic on oil. Although short term we might have a pullback, I’m still bullish on the price of oil. I think oil will trade north of $80 by year end, and I think we’ll again see triple-digit oil within the next two years. A lot of major wells in the world are not as productive as they once were and when it comes to demand increasing because the overall economic health around the world is picking up, we could be in trouble in terms of supplies. That relates to the metals as well as energy.

TGR: Speaking of metals, your outlook for gold?

JL: I continue to maintain that we could see $1,200 gold prices by year-end. I think gold is very much on the way to hitting that pretty aggressive price target. The miners themselves seem pretty confident on the upside for gold.

TGR: In April, you described gold as one of the best asset plays in the world and your recommendation to investors was to focus initially on physical gold. Have you changed that viewpoint?

JL: No. I’ve been bullish on gold since it was below $400. But now I am starting to see some opportunities in the equity side of the gold market that are becoming very appealing and I didn’t see that when we last spoke.

TGR: Are you still bullish on platinum and palladium, too?

JL: I am still enthusiastic, but not as bullish on either of them just because we have seen a bit of a run since April. I’d rather be in silver. I think silver gets forgotten when we start talking about precious metals. As opposed to platinum or palladium, I would rather be in the silver space.

TGR: Is there anything in particular in silver that you’re finding appealing?

JL: I just think if we’re talking about an economic recovery in the back half of this year into 2010 and silver is mostly used for industrial purposes, I honestly think that silver prices are just forgotten. When people start talking about the inflation hedge, they jump into gold. If they start talking about the economy improving, they jump into copper. They tend to forget that silver is actually used for much manufacturing. So I think that is the forgotten metal and I do think that silver prices can move a lot higher, especially as gold prices march through $1,000.

TGR: As you say, people look to copper as the leading metal to point to in terms of a recovery. What’s your feeling about copper?

JL: You hit the nail on the head. Everyone starts to talk about copper, but nothing has jumped out at me to say that copper prices have much more upside. Copper prices are up nearly 100% year-to-date, so I think a lot of the recovery that many people are talking about has been priced in already.

The Baltic Dry Index, an index that just had the biggest monthly drop since October (down 28% in August), has been down because people fear that China might cut back on buying iron ore and coal. If that happens, copper prices won’t be immune. Copper supplies have been tight for the last couple of quarters. If anything, we’re trading about 35 cents or 40 cents above the recent 50-day moving average. I think copper is over-extended right now.

TGR: Any last comments before we meet again?

JL: Only that while it’s a difficult marketplace and I do expect tight markets around the world to continue, some of the plays we’ve talked about have the makings of a pretty successful portfolio.

After studying economics and graduating from Saint Peter’s College in New Jersey (where he received the Wall Street Journal Award for economic excellence), John J. Licata set his sights on Wall Street. During his career, John has held both trading and research positions on the NYMEX, Dow Jones, Smith Barney and Brokerage America. Early in 2006, he founded Blue Phoenix, Inc., an independent energy/metals research and consulting firm based in New York City. John, the company’s Chief Investment Strategist, has appeared regularly in the media (CNBC, Bloomberg TV/Radio, Business News Network (BNN), Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Sun, Los Angeles Times, etc.) over the years for his insights/forecasts in the commodity spectrum.

Streetwise – The Gold Report is Copyright © 2009 by Streetwise Inc. All rights are reserved. Streetwise Inc. hereby grants an unrestricted license to use or disseminate this copyrighted material (i) only in whole (and always including this disclaimer), but (ii) never in part.

================================================

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

Advertisement

An Open Letter To Congress – STOP!

 Today, the big 3 shorts tried to push and manipulate Gold beneath $950, however once again, they failed. Gold hit a low of $946 before bouncing back up and closing at $953. $950 is the new base of support for Gold. The Stock Market did manage to claw it’s way back to basically even/ unchanged for the day.-Good Investing! – Jschulmansr

Follow Me on Twitter and be notified whenever I make a new post!===================================================

==============================================
Subject: Two trending markets revisited and analyzed for you

Here is a video analysis of the S&P and Gold markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Gold is climbing at a  steady rate, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

 Below are two free videos, one on Gold and one on the S&P, that gives us an in depth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informative. Just

Click on the Links Below…

 

          S&P Video Analysis:                                                    Gold Projections:

Also- Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and no payment info will ever be requested.

Click Here To Enter Your Symbol/s

I Decided to Make my voice heard today.

Today I decided to become involved and take action, here is the letter…  

Sent to my elected officials in congress; John McCain, Harry Mitchell,

and Jon Kyle.

 
An Open Letter To Congress – Stop!
 
By: Jeffrey S. Schulman Sr.
 
 
Dear Hon. Represenatives’s John, Harry and Jon;
 
     I have written to you many times before on various issues. Since my last communication, I am in process of becoming a District Committeeman for AZ. 5, 21. In addition I will be posting this letter and the results (actions you take), on my Blog, Dare Something Worthy Today Too! (https://jschulmansr.wordpress.com).
 
     Why I am writing to you this time is the question, “what are we doing to the financial futures of our present country, our children, grandchildren, and even great-grandchildren?” I am gravely concerned in light of the following…
 
     In May of last year the U.S. money supply stood at roughly $834 billion. Now, 1 year later, the Federal Reserve has created an additional $941 billion out of thin air. Pay close attention to those numbers…
 
·         The amount of new money (FRN’s) the Fed has created is roughly $107 billion     more than all the money that was in circulation just a year ago.
 
·         In other words, the U.S. money supply has more than doubled!
       Think about what this does to the value of your dollars, to your savings, to your paycheck, to your retirement income? A doubling of the money supply means your money is worth half what it was.
 
     Of course, your money’s loss of value won’t manifest itself overnight. It will take time for the Fed’s counterfeiting to drive up prices. But those who get the new money first will be able to spend it while prices are still low, increasing their wealth at your expense. 
 
     In addition, The Fed regulates banks, influences interest rates, and determines the size of our money supply through a complex process, called Open Market Operations, that involves buying and selling securities (mostly government debt). The Fed’s policies determine the value of your money, the health of the economy, and the
rates you pay to borrow.
 
     The Fed’s decision-making process is secret, using confidential information.
 
     Minutes of these secret meetings aren’t due until three weeks after decisions are announced.
 
     Transcripts of meetings don’t become available until five years later.
  
     Aside from the Chair, Fed board members serve the longest terms of any federal bureaucrat (14 years), and they can’t be fired for political reasons.

     The Comptroller General, head of the Government Accountability Office, is legally prohibited from auditing the Fed’s Open Market operations, and several other important Fed activities.
 
      The Fed is part of the Federal Government, but acts without any of the regular checks and balances.
 
     Next, The Fed and the federal government has made a lot of promises in our names. It has committed us to pay most of the health care expenses of the elderly (Medicare) and to provide them with a small stipend (Social Security). It has also borrowed trillions of dollars, to pay current expenses, which your children and
grandchildren will have to repay.
 
     Unfortunately, future revenues will be insufficient to fulfill these promises.
 
The Government Accountability Office estimates the future shortfall in funding at $53.3 trillion. Other experts say the number is almost certainly higher. This means that every full-time worker owes a staggering $440,000+, courtesy of government excess. Eventually, that debt must be paid, either in higher taxes, or in reduced benefits. These numbers represent a looming crisis of staggering proportions.
 
     Fortunately, there is still time to fix and reverse this crisis…
 
     The first thing I am asking you to do is co-sponsor and support Congressman Ron Paul of Texas bill that he introduced H.R. 1207, the Federal Reserve Transparency Act.
 
     This bill requires an audit of the Fed by 2010. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has introduced the similar S.604 in the Senate. Please support and vote for these bills.
 
     Next I am aware that the federal government has future unfunded liabilities estimated at $53 trillion. Please stop ignoring this problem. Please start reducing spending now. Balance the budget now. And start retiring the debt now so you can stop spending so much of my tax money on interest charges.
 
     Finally and of critical importance (actually all three requests are of critical importance), In the 110th Congress, Rep. Ron Paul introduced three bills that would have brought the above benefits. He will re-introduce them this year, and they should be combined into ONE simple bill. The benefits in addition to stopping or at least
curbing inflation are these:

     Ending inflation would cause your money to buy more and more as the economy grows, instead of less and less, as it does today. Stopping inflation would also end bubbles and booms, and the recessions they cause.

       The three bills which should be combined into one simple bill are
these:
 
    The 15-word “Honest Money Act” would repeal the 41-word legal
tender law, which gives the Federal Reserve a monopoly over the money supply.
 
     The 104-word “Free Competition in Currency Act” would repeal the
69 words of Title 18 Section 489 of the U.S. Code, which gives the
United States government a monopoly over the creation of coins for use as currency.
 
     The 193-word “Tax-Free Gold Act” would prohibit federal and state
taxes on precious metal coins and bullion.
 
     The explanation on why we should repeal the Fed’s legal tender
and coinage monopoly is this:
 
     Every paper dollar you own carries the words “Federal Reserve Note” (FRN). This means they were issued by the Federal Reserve System (the Fed), a national bank created by Congress. The legal tender law gives the Fed monopoly control over what you use for money.
 
     When a currency is legal tender you are legally compelled to accept
it in payment for debts, even if you’ve made a contract to be paid in
some other currency or commodity, such as gold. Abolishing taxes on precious metal coins and bullion, and repealing both the legal tender law and the federal coin monopoly, would free you to use other currencies, gold, silver, or all of them at the same time,
including FRNs.
 
      If this seems like a strange new world to you, please realize that
you already live in this world to a certain extent.
 
     When you check-out at a store you can already pay using cash, check, debit card, or credit card, and you probably also have different accounts you use for various purposes. Repealing the legal tender monopoly would simply give you more choices.
 
     Choice is good because it allows competition. Monopoly is bad because it leads to price-fixing. And monopoly control over what you may use as money provides the greatest price-fixing power of all. It impacts ALL of your economic transactions. The Fed can manipulate the price of everything by increasing the number of circulating
dollars (inflation), or by decreasing that number (deflation).
 
     You already know what it means when counterfeiters inflate the money supply. They use their fake money to get something for nothing, taking wealth from others without creating any wealth of their own. It’s a form of stealing. But the long-term consequences of counterfeiting are even worse than the initial theft.
 
     If the counterfeit dollars were allowed to stay in the economy, instead of gradually being removed from circulation, the result would be an ever-growing inflation of the money supply. This inflation would trick businesses into making a disastrous mistake.
 

     Thus, if you were a widget maker you would see an increased demand for your widgets because of the extra dollars pumped into the economy by the counterfeiters. A sense of increased demand and increased wealth would be the “bubble,” or “boom,” that always follows an inflation of the money supply.
 
     Your widgets would start to fly off the shelves faster than you could make them. You would have to increase prices to maintain inventories and invest in new production to meet the increased demand. But this increased demand would be an illusion,
because . . .
 
     Everyone else would raise their prices too. And they’d increase them for the same reasons you did. Rising prices would remove the perception of increased wealth and soak up the extra spending power created by the counterfeit dollars. This would cause the demand for your widgets to shrink back to its old level, but with a wicked twist . . .
 
     The increased inventories and expanded production capacity you created in response to the inflationary boom would turn out not to be needed. Your widgets would start to gather dust on the shelf and you would have trouble paying your bills.

The result?
 
     You would lay-off recently hired employees and close your recently expanded production facilities.
 
      First came the inflationary boom, or bubble, and then the bust, or recession.
 
     Extra FRNs created by the Fed work exactly the same as extra FRNs created by counterfeiters. They allow those who get the dollars first to get something for nothing, followed by a boom, and then a bust.
 
     The Fed has numerous ways to create new FRNs out of thin air. Economists cloud these methods in complicated jargon, and the talking heads on TV make it all sound perfectly normal and even necessary, but the result is exactly the same as with illegal
counterfeiting.
 
     Given the above explanation it should come as no surprise that the greatest boom and bust in American history happened immediately following the Fed’s birth in 1913. Fed inflation put the inflationary “roar” in the “Roaring Twenties” followed by the biggest bust ever, the Great Depression.
 
     Past inflations, booms, and busts were created through essentially the same process, including the recent stock market and housing bubbles. The Fed is simply the government’s latest-and-greatest tool for legalized counterfeiting.
 
     Imagine what would happen if FRNs had to compete with gold, a form of money that can’t be significantly inflated or deflated because of its scarcity and durability. . .
 

     People would begin to have gold accounts that they would use to buy and sell. The ownership of the gold would be transferred back and forth using checks, debit cards, paper certificates (currency), and a few coins, just like with FRNs.
 
     When you went shopping you might start to see two prices, one in FRNs and one in a certain weight of gold. If the Fed inflated the number of FRNs you would see the FRN prices rise while the gold price would stay roughly the same.
 
     You would begin to prefer to pay the gold price, so you would want to be paid in gold too.
 
     How could the Fed stop the flight to gold? Only one way, Stop inflating the number of FRNs (printing more new U.S. Dollars).
 
     Congressman Paul has hit upon the easiest way to end inflation, and the booms and busts that follow in its wake. Simply repeal the legal tender monopoly enjoyed by FRNs, and the coinage monopoly held by the United States government. Stop taxing exchanges in commodity metals. Allow monetary competition. This would help end inflation.

But that’s not all . . .
 
     Forcing FRNs ( the U.S. Dollar) to compete with gold would also confer one other benefit. Over time the prices you pay will tend to fall as increases in economic efficiency (for example, technological improvements) lower the cost of production and increase the supply of goods and services. A stable money supply tends to become more
valuable over time, unlike an inflationary currency that constantly loses value.
 
     Once again I am asking you to Audit the Fed and support HR 1207, S.604. Next, reduce spending now! Balance the budget and start retiring U.S. Debt. Stop the manipulation of Gold and Silver Prices. Finally, Please sponsor and support “The Honest Money Act”, “The Free Competition in Currency Act”, and the “Tax-Free Gold Act”.
 
     We will remember your choices and actions, and your votes with our votes in the next elections.
 
Sincerely,
 
Jeffrey S. Schulman Sr.

My Note: Please Join me!, write your elected represenatives and ask them to support all of the measures listed in my letter.- jschulmansr

===================================================

Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

• ·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
• ·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
• ·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
• ·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

====================================================

 

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities

or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor,

consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and

related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments.

–  jschulmansr