ANV, Austrian school, AUY, Bailout News, banking crisis, banks, bear market, Bollinger Bands Saudi Arabia, bonds, Brian Tang, bull market, CDE, CEF, central banks, China, Comex, commodities, Copper, crash, Currencies, currency, Currency and Currencies, deflation, Dennis Gartman, depression, DGP, dollar denominated, dollar denominated investments, Doug Casey, economic, economic trends, economy, EGO, Federal Deficit, financial, Forex, FRG, futures, futures markets, gata, GDX, GG, GLD, gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Investments, gold miners, Gold Price Manipulation, GTU, hard assets, HL, hyper-inflation, IAU, India, inflation, investments, Jeffrey Nichols, Jim Rogers, John Embry, Keith Fitz-Gerald, majors, Marc Faber, market crash, Markets, Michael Zielinski, mid-tier, mining companies, monetization, Moving Averages, NAK, NGC, NXG, PAL, palladium, Peter Grandich, Peter Schiff, physical gold, platinum, platinum miners, precious metals, price, price manipulation, prices, producers, production, protection, recession, risk, run on banks, safety, Sean Rakhimov, silver, silver miners, SLW, small caps, sovereign, spot, spot price, stagflation, SWC, Technical Analysis, TIPS, U.S., U.S. Dollar, volatility, warrants, XAU
Well Mr. Obama said the same old, same old today and didn’t help the market at all… ANY of them! Mr. Obama what do you have against the market? I mean like your whole cabinet are all Good Ole Wall Street Boys!?! The Dow failed to maintain above 8000 today and that is a very bad sign or good depending which side of market you are on. It appears now the the intermediate wave (Elliott) is finished and stocks have climbed to the top of the diving platform. 1st attemp at a swan dive- difficulty easy. So wil it be a perfect 10 or a belly flop? Either Way the Dow is going down! My first target 7200-7500 and then a test of the 6500 level lows, (Called The “Bottom” recently). Gold and Precious Metals continue to consolidate getting ready to launch for a new test of $920, then $980, then the all time high. I think the news is going to be that bad and that dramatic. The Middle East is about to explode, N. Korea just threw out the inspectors, even the pirates are snubbing their noses at you Mr. Obama. So now the question is are you a man or a mouse? Squeak up! Copper is quietly having a nice rally, China is buying up all of our soybeans, and oil is getting ready to explode to the upside. Keep accumulating Gold and Precious Metals in any form, buy producers with production, you should jump into (DGP) with a little risk money too! In currencies my pick is the Aussie dollar, accumulate on dips because as Gold goes so will the Aussie Dollar. Good Investing! – jschulmansr
· Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?
· What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?
· Why most investors are WRONG about gold…
· When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!
Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault
My Note: I use these tools and they are great and they work! – jschulmansr
Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!
Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…
Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested.
My Note: I use these tools and they are great and they work! – jschulmansr
Encouraging numbers from an investment banking giant dominated discussion among the pros, who tied them to massive government stimulus efforts — and doubted they would carry ahead to economic numbers, or even to results from other investment banks.
Financials Show Surprising Strength; Consumers Still Look Weak
Scott Brown of Raymond James said there has been a real change in the attitudes and behavior of consumers, with fear now dominant. That is likely to be reflected in retail data this week, and there’s no likelihood that consumer spending will rebound any time soon. (click to watch the video).
Stocks ended near their session lows Tuesday after a report showed retail sales unexpectedly dropped in March and as worries about banks simmered ahead of some key earnings.
Retail sales tumbled 1.1 percent
last month, a big disappointment as economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.3-percent increase. Excluding the volatile auto component, sales fell 0.9 percent. The two prior months were revised upward, offering some consolation, but the unexpected sharp drop rattled the market.
“The inescapable fact is that the U.S. consumer is faced with daunting fundamentals: Wage and salary income growth has evaporated, credit is very tight, home prices continue to decline … [which] makes it very likely that the U.S. consumer will remain a drag on economic activity in coming quarters,” MFR economist Joshua Shapiro wrote in a note to clients. “Fiscal stimulus will help to blunt this, but is unlikely to turn the tide completely.”
Markets are Overbought; Retail Numbers = Long Way to Go
Disappointing retail sales numbers in March, after two stronger-than-expected months, show the consumer has not turned the corner after all, and may “go back in his cocoon,” according to Art Cashin of UBS. The market is overbought and vulnerable to a pullback — perhaps even a sharp pullback over the next three days — with option expiration built in. He is hopeful we have set the lows for the cycle, although those lows may be tested, and he foresees a lot of “sideways churning for maybe months.
My Note: Unfortunately if sideways churning includes testing those lows then I absolutely agree if those lows hold. Unfortunately, I don’t think they will, can you say DOW 4500? – jschulmansr
Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 7.9%
Easter Mondays leave Yanks more time to leisurely ponder the week’s trading prospects, as many global bourses are closed. We get to trade – and talk, as Linda Richman used to suggest – amongst ourselves.
Gold and oil naturally figure large in this week’s scenario. Particularly, oil over gold, if you’ve been listening to commodity maven Jim Rogers. Rogers thinks the International Monetary Fund [IMF] is a likely seller of some of its 3,200-ton metal stash, so he’s talking up black gold over yellow.
It’s not as if the world finds this surprising. Whether the IMF sales take place or not, the world’s been spoiling for a showdown between the two commodities.
Let’s look at oil first. The nearby crude contract gathered strength in its 50% retracement of the February-March rally, and is now poised to challenge the run-up’s $54.64 high.
Nearby NYMEX WTI Crude
True, near-term fundamentals still indicate oversupply. The re-growth in the contango tells you that. The quarterly carry trade was pinched to 80 cents a barrel a month ago; now it’s in the $4-5 range. If you’ve got a carrying charge market, you’ve got commodity enough to carry into future deliveries.
No, this has been a rally built more on expectations of improving economic prospects – hand-in-hand with the equity market rally – than on a supply retraction. Oil inventories at the Cushing, Okla., terminus may be down from their peak, but supplies in other regions have ballooned to more than compensate for the off-take.
Now, about gold …
Momentum and sentiment have turned sour for the yellow metal. But you probably suspected that, right? The recent 30,000-contract downdraft in COMEX open interest was led mostly by fund sellers. Net long positions held by large speculators tumbled more than 18% last week.
COMEX Nearby Gold
Technically, gold’s very vulnerable. Pushed to test its 100-day moving average on the downside and weighed down by overhead resistance at the $888 level – formerly support for the February-March topping action – the nearby market’s squeezed. Gold spreads (as mentioned in “Another ‘Make It Or Break It’ Hurdle For Gold“) indicate plenty of liquidity in the lease market. Supply’s not the issue for gold either. At least not yet.
Oil’s technical strength over gold is readily apparent in the gold/oil ratio. A rising ratio, meaning gold’s price is gaining on oil’s, is indicative of poorer economic conditions to come. A decline, not surprising, signals the market’s forecast of better prospects. The ratio’s been testing the 17-to-1 level over the past couple of weeks. An oil breakout could put this indicator on course to look for support at the 15-to-1 level.
It seems traders are essentially anticipating a reflation trade by making one of the primary engines of inflation, oil, their target rather than gold, inflation’s classic beneficiary.
This should be an interesting week.
My Note: Brad you need to remember this time the Miner’s have started to begin the rally not the bullion market. When that happens Gold always rises. But with the producer’s/miner’s leading we will have a much stronger and deeper rally this time, I’m looking for $1200 – $1500 by year’s end! Have a Great Evening, don’t forget tomorrow is National Tea Party Day! – jschulmansr