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Ouch! Gold had a little mis-step today. Gold closed down $24.50 to close at $872.80. So what happened? Todays Articles will help show why and what to expect in the days ahead. First, Gold had to fill a gap created about 39 tradings sessions ago, gap filled and Gold held at the $865 level. Gold has 2 more strong resistance levels, first at $855 the 200day moving average and then at $845 which represents a 50% retracement of the last Bull run up to $1007 from $680.75 low in Oct 08. The market is starting to become very oversold and “the sheeple” are starting to give up on Gold. I personally added a little more (DGP) late today and if Gold is temporarily driven down to the next major support at $820-$825 will add even more. Long term all of the fundamentals are looking good for Gold although on a seasonal basis, barring any dramatic unforseen events, Gold will probably be locked in a $850 to $1000 sideways market range until the end of Aug. For stocks we have almost finished with secondary upward wave, we may see a burst for the DJIA to potentially 9000, then look out below! My calls, 1st 6500 then potentially as low as 4500; all based on Elliot Wave Theory. Right now the higher they push stocks up the more they will fall. It almost seems like everyone has forgotten about Oil which is still trading above $50 barrel. However once again barring any dramatic news, seasonally Oil will also probably trade in a sideways range between $40- $60 barrel. I am still adding more mid-tier and Junior Gold and Precious metals producers, look carefully there are still good bargains out there. For all the Gold bugs out there Don’t Give Up!, good, no awesome returns are coming as early as the end of this year, maybe sooner! I think we will hold at the 200  day moving average and then sideways between $850 to $1000 until Aug. Then Gold is going to take off. This prediction is also predicated on NO new bad news or crisis’s popping up, a purely seasonal prediction play. If we have majors news then Gold will take off much earlier and either way set new all time highs as it begins it’s next leg of Gold’s major Bull Market Run! – Good Investing! – jschulmansr

 

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·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

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·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

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Last week I watched a video analysis of the S&P and Crude Oil markets. The technical analysis was right on at the time, but those markets have changed quite a bit in the last few days. The S&P had a huge rally and Crude seemed to steady out, so what’s the new analysis? Glad you asked!

Below are two free videos, one on Crude Oil and one on the S&P, that gives us an indepth technical look into these markets. Again the videos are free and very informatitive. Just Click on the Links Below…

S&P Video Analysis Crude Oil Projections:

Here’s your chance to analyze that stock you have been thinking about adding to your portfolio. Just enter the ticker of any company, name of a commodity, or forex pair and get your complimentary technical analysis. It cost you nothing and and no payment info will ever be requested. This is an Awesome Free Service!

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Gold Falls below $870 on possible IMF gold sales, rising dollar – Marketwatch

By: Morning Zhou of MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold futures fell Monday for a third straight session to end near $870 an ounce, wiping out their yearly gains as traders shaved positions on worries that the 403 tons of gold sales by the International Monetary Fund will increase supply and depress gold prices.

Meanwhile, a stronger U.S. dollar also added downward pressures on gold prices.
“There is still this fear of a lot of selling coming from different central banks and the IMF,” said George Gero, a precious metals trader for RBC Capital Markets. “The perception is that ‘I am getting out of the way until all the sales are completed and let’s see how it’s absorbed.'”
Gold for April delivery fell $24.10, or 2.7%, to end at $871.50 an ounce in North American electronic trading. It dropped to as low as $865.10 earlier. The more active June contract also fell Monday, down 3.2% at $868.50.
Gold has lost nearly 6% since April 1 and is now down 1.4% for the year, partly out of optimism that collective actions by leaders of the world’s major nations may stem the global economic crisis.
In spot trading, the benchmark London afternoon gold-fixing price stood at $870.25 an ounce Monday, down $34.75, or 3.8%, from the previous day.
 
In other metals futures, silver for May delivery fell 4.9% to $12.11 an ounce. June palladium was up 0.4% at $225.75 an ounce, while April platinum fell 1.2% to $1,145.70 an ounce.
May copper dropped 2.1% to $1.959 a pound.
IMF gold sales
Leaders from the Group of 20 nations said last Thursday they endorse 403 tons of gold sales by the IMF. The proceeds will be used to provide finance for the poorest countries over the next two to three years.
The announcement came one day after the European Central Bank said it had completed the sale of 35.5 tons of gold.
The IMF’s plan to sell the gold still needs to be approved by an 85% majority vote from its 185 members. The U.S., which has 17% voting power in the fund, essentially holds veto power. See full story on IMF gold sales.
If the plan is approved, the gold selling will be implemented in coordination with major central banks to minimize the impact on the market, the IMF said.
The possible IMF gold sales helped gold prices move lower in the short turn, said Hussein Allidina, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. But he added he sees “any weakness in price as a buying opportunity as the sale would occur over years and be under the CBGA limit.”
The second Central Banks Gold Agreement, or CBGA, caps total gold sales of the signatories at 500 tons a year and expires in September. A third CBGA is expected to be signed before September. See related story about central bank gold selling.
Also helping gold move lower Monday, the U.S. dollar rose against most of its major rivals Monday, with the dollar index (DXY: 84.64, +0.48, +0.6%) up nearly 1% at 84.767. See Currencies.
A stronger greenback tends to push down dollar-denominated prices of commodities such as gold and crude. Crude futures fell nearly 4% Monday.
Falling ETF investment
Investment in gold exchange-traded funds also stalled recently. Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD 85.27, -2.32, -2.6%) , the biggest gold exchange-traded fund, stood at 1,127.37 tons Friday, down slightly from a day ago, according to latest data from the fund.
It’s the first drop in SPDR holdings in one month. The SPDR lost 2.2% to $85.68 on Monday.
Investors seeking investment safe haven had been buying gold earlier this year as deepening troubles in the economy pushed stocks to their lowest level in decades. But actions from the world’s major nations has boosted investment sentiment and reduced gold’s safe-haven appeal.
The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed more than $10 trillion to stem the economic downturn since the financial crisis began. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech Friday that he expects the gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth is coming.
The recent weakness in gold prices is “a sure sign risk appetite has increased further following the actions of various governments and central banks as well as the combined efforts of the G20 nations last week,” said James Moore, a precious metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com End of Story
Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.
With a decline of 3% today, gold is on the verge of testing its 200-day moving average for the first time since early January. With the exception of a one-day spike on the day the Fed said it would buy US Treasuries (3/18), gold has pretty much traded down in a straight line. Even though most observers said the Fed’s action would lead to inflation down the road, the price of gold is now lower today than it was before the announcement.

click to enlarge

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My Note: think we will hold at the 200  day moving average and then sideways between $850 to $1000 until Aug. Then Gold is going to take off. This prediction is also predicated on NO new bad news or crisis’s popping up, a purely seasonal prediction play. If we have majors news then Gold will take off much earlier and either way set new all time highs as it begins it’s next leg of Gold’s major Bull Market Run! – Jschulmansr

Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.1%

You could just see things ending badly for gold Friday. April COMEX gold settled at $895.60, near the low of the day, after near-term momentum turned bearish. This morning’s trade looks weaker still after London dealers marked bullion at $879.50.

Another soft New York close will likely set up a test of longer-term support at the 100-day moving average, now at $869.70.

COMEX Spot Gold

COMEX Spot Gold

London’s gold spreads, too, are painting a rather dreary tableau for bullion. The 12-month contango is shrinking against that of three-month forwards after gold’s previous run-up yielded only modest gains for bull spreaders.

Throw in the narrowing of credit spreads and the current resurgence of the equities market and the indifference to the metal is palpable. The three-month TED spread – that is, the difference between U.S. Treasuries and the London Interbank Offered Rate [LIBOR] – dipped below 100 basis points (1%) last week for the first time since February 26. The spread’s downward momentum through the week reflected an easing of the worries that had driven so much capital to seek the shelter of gold.

London Gold Forward Spread (3-Month Vs. 12-Month)

London Gold Forward Spread (3-Month Vs. 12-Month)

 

That’s not to say that gold’s run is over or that we’ve finally turned the corner on the financial crisis. There’s an ebb and flow to any market, even those that are strongly trending.

A market like this, in fact, seems to be providing opportunities for gold buyers with modestly bullish sentiments. Some were seen this morning trading gold puts on June COMEX contracts.

With June gold at $880, the $850 puts changed hands at $26 an ounce. Put sellers gave buyers the right to put, or to sell, June gold futures at $850 through May 26. For taking that right, put buyers paid a per-contract premium of $2,600.

Here’s the reason the put sellers took on the risk. It’s unlikely that the puts would be exercised until, and unless, June gold dipped below the puts’ $850 strike price, so the put sellers either hold a conviction that prices will remain above that level, or, if they in fact sink through it, that the excursion will be short-lived.

If the puts remain out-of-the-money for the next month, the sellers get to keep the premium and the put expires unexercised. If futures are instead put to the option grantors, they’d end up with a long position at an effective purchase price of $824. Subsequent price advances in June futures above $824, if they occur, would engender gains for the option writers. Of course, losses would be open-ended if prices collapse.

More glass-half-full optimism brought to you by your friendly neighborhood options marketplace.

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report;

Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

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Have A Great Afternoon & Good Investing! – jschulmansr

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Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

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