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A new week and I have a new warning… What I mentioned before in previous posts is starting to happen. We are now starting to hear the “bottom” is coming in place for Stocks and the Economy, everyone from Benanke to many “name” financial advisors are starting to jump on the bandwagon. Sure enough this morning the “sheeple” started to put their money back into stocks. The Dow is currently up 70 points and Gold was down $13.00. Nasdaq hasn’t ever gotten out of the negative yet today. This is how I see it- we will probably have a nice rally at least this morning as smaill investors pile in thinking “we are close to the bottom or at it so lets get in now so we won’t miss it!” My key resistance points for the Dow, are around 7300- 7320 and the S&P 500, 770-775. If those are cleared we have the potential for a really big up day. However if the markets can not successfully get above those points, Bang! the Bear Trap is sprung!. Be careful out there and Buy Gold now while you can still catch the market before we run to $1050, and later by end of year $1250-$1500, maybe even higher as inflation will really be clicking in from all the money flooding the world economies now. I especially like the Precious Metals producers as a whole many good bargains to be found out there. Even bullion bought now should produce minimum $100+ oz. gain over the next few months. Be a wise and prudent investor – not a “fool”. Remember a “fool” and his money are soon parted! Good Investing- jschulmansr 

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

=========================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

=========================================================

 

 

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Guru’s Say Bottom Near – Financial Times

Source: Financial Times

Gurus say bottom near

By Pauline Skypala

Published: March 15 2009 09:36 | Last updated: March 15 2009 09:36

 

He said much the same in October last year, so in a video interview, FTfm asked why he thought he was right this time. Opening with the remark that it is “very difficult” to get market timing right, Mr Bolton said he looked at three factors: the history of bull and bear market cycles; sentiment – how investors are behaving and thinking; and valuations. Those reached an extreme back in November that he thought might have marked the final low, and again in the first week of March.

“That is why I think we are pretty near the end of this pretty awful bear market,” he said.

He is not talking about a bear market rally, he added, but the start of a new bull market. Mr Bolton, and Fidelity International, generally advise against trying to time markets. Investors should hold on through thick and thin to avoid missing out on the best days that often come when the market turns, they have frequently said.

Mr Bolton now appears to be timing markets. He admits to being “a bit foolhardy going against my own advice” but remains consistent in putting out the message that it is hard to time markets and most private investors should employ a buy and hold strategy.

He believes all risk assets are now attractive, not just equities. The only one that looks less attractive is government bonds, where there could be a bubble building, he says.

He is not alone in his assessment. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, told clients in a newsletter last week to adopt a reinvestment plan and stick to it.

GMO made one very large reinvestment move in October and has a schedule for further moves contingent on future market declines, he says, in the belief that a few large steps are better than many small ones.

Mr Grantham is not brimming with confidence but says it is vital to have a battle plan, otherwise paralysis sets in. He points out that in June 1933 the US market rallied 105 per cent in six months long before all the bad news had played out. Similarly, in 1974, the UK market jumped by 148 per cent in five months. “How would you have felt then with your large and beloved cash reserves?” he asks.

In common with Mr Bolton, he advises the market is a powerful discounting mechanism. Investors who wait for light at the end of the tunnel will miss the upturn.

The market turns “when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before”.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

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Fed’s Bernanke sees recession ending ‘this year’ – Market Watch

Source: Market Watch

Calls health of banks key, but worries about lack of ‘political will’

By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The chairman of the Federal Reserve said in a rare interview televised Sunday that the U.S. recession will come to an end “probably this year,” but he also warned that the nation’s 8.1% unemployment rate will continue to rise.
Appearing on the CBS network’s “60 Minutes,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told correspondent Scott Pelley that concerted efforts by the government likely averted a depression similar to the 1930s. He also said the nation’s largest banks are solvent and that he doesn’t expect any of them to fail.
At the same time, Bernanke expressed concern the U.S. might lack the political will to take further measures to shore up the financial system. Although he said he believes the largest banks are solvent and that “they are not going to fail,” Bernanke said a full recovery won’t take place until the system is stabilized.
“The lesson of history is that you do not get a sustained economic recovery as long as the financial system is in crisis,” he said. Bernanke noted that banks are unable to raise cash from private investors as is normally the case because of fears about their solvency.
The 15-month recession, which began in December 2007, is set to become the longest in the post-World War II era. The downturn took a sharp turn for the worst last September after the collapse of the Wall Street brokerage Lehman Brothers.
“Lehman proved that you cannot let a large internationally active firm fail in the middle of a financial crisis,” Bernanke said.
The same error was made 80 years ago when the U.S. government let thousands of banks fail, contributing to the Great Depression, said Bernanke, a former economics professor who’s extensively studied the 1930s. Another big mistake the Fed made back then was to let the supply of money contract, he said.
Since the crisis exploded last fall, Bernanke has sought to avoid both mistakes. The Fed and Treasury have committed hundreds of billons to the bailouts of banks, insurers, mortgage lenders and other entities. While Bernanke said he understood the public’s outrage at the cost, he said they were necessary to prevent a more severe contraction and steeper job losses.
Bernanke also pointed out the bailout aid doesn’t come directly from taxpayers and is “more akin to printing money than it is borrowing.” He said the Fed can adopt that approach because the economy is very weak and inflation is low.
Once the economy begins to recover, Bernanke said, the Fed will have to raise interest rates and reduce the supply of money to “make sure we have a recovery that does not involve inflation.”
The Fed chairman said the recovery won’t begin until early 2010 and will take time to gather steam. He reiterated his call for an overhaul of the nation’s financial regulations — the first in decades — to prevent similar financial conflagrations.
Bernanke is the first sitting Fed chairman to conduct a television interview in 20 years. End of Story
Jeffry Bartash is a reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.
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Source: MarketWatch
OUTSIDE THE BOX

A few who got it right

Commentary: What do those who called the

downturn think?

By Howard Gold
ORLANDO, Fla. (MarketWatch) — The financial markets are littered with the broken reputations of so-called “experts” who failed to anticipate the global financial crisis, or the recession and bear market that have followed.
Finance ministers, central bankers, Wall Street strategists, famed economists, hotshot hedge-fund bosses, former star mutual fund managers and, yes, journalists and cable-television bloviators all dropped the ball big time in the years leading up to the current meltdown.
But a handful of brave souls got it right. Economist Nouriel Roubini, analyst Meredith Whitney and some others have gone on to fame and fortune for warning about the disaster to come.
They weren’t alone. Economist Gary Shilling, options specialist Larry McMillan, strategist Sandy Jadeja and market technician Dan Sullivan all saw a big bear market ahead and advised moving money to the sidelines before the roof collapsed. We caught up with them in the midst of this week’s rally to get their take on what’s ahead.
Most believe we’re getting pretty close to a market bottom, but we’ll have to go through more pain before we get there. None thinks the current rally is for real.
Shilling, a longtime Cassandra and publisher of “Insight,” has warned about the housing and credit bubbles for years and repeatedly predicted that the current recession would be deep. His 13 predictions for 2008 were right on the money.
Excess housing
And guess what? He’s still bearish on housing. Shilling estimates there’s excess inventory of 2.4 million homes on the market and “it’s taking a long time to work that [down.]”
That’s why home prices have a way to go before they bottom: He’s looking for a peak-to- trough decline of 40% in housing prices nationwide. As of the fourth quarter, the 20-city Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index had fallen 27% from its high in 2006.
At the bottom, Shilling expects some 25 million borrowers will be underwater on their mortgages. That’s half of all mortgages and one-third of all owned houses in the U.S. Similarly, he doesn’t think the current recession will end until at least early 2010. That would make this the longest recession by far since World War II.
He thinks the market might actually bottom some time this summer at around 600 on the S&P 500 – at 15 times estimated earnings of $40 — six months or so before the economy does. But he doesn’t see prosperity just around the corner.
“It took about 30 years to build up the credit bubble,” he says. “My guess is, five to ten years to unwind this.”
“What it probably means,” he explains, “is longer and deeper recessions and shorter recoveries — and reflecting that, shorter, less exuberant rallies and more frequent and deeper bear markets.”
Thanks, Gary.
Short-term concerns
Options specialist Larry McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis Corp., typically looks at trading patterns over weeks and months rather than years. But he still doesn’t like what he sees.
“I don’t see a bottom in this leg here,” he says. “I find this market to be strangely calm. People have not panicked. All the pros are picking the bottom.”
That, he argues, means investors haven’t capitulated yet, the true sign of a market bottom.
McMillan has been cautious since late 2007, although he has traded in and out of rallies. He can’t say where the ultimate bottom will be. “I don’t have a target,” he says. “I’m looking for a spike in volatility that washes this thing out.”
He’s waiting for the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index, or VIX, to shoot up into the 60s from the 40s and 50s now, and then fall back. “That to me would be capitulation,” he says.
Until then, he advises being out of the market — or staying short.
Market projections
Technical analyst Sandy Jadeja, chief market strategist for ODL Markets in London, did have a target: 6425 in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On March 9, the Dow hit 6440 at one point before Tuesday’s massive rally.
He thinks Wednesday’s higher close for the Dow is a good sign for the short run. The Dow was up nicely Thursday morning on retail sales data that were slightly better than expected. He’s looking for a rally that would take the Dow back up to 8300.
But don’t count on much more than that, he cautions.
He says 6400 is “a critical level going back to 1987, the 1930s and the 2002 lows.” He expects it to be retested, and if the market can’t hold that support level, then it could go a lot lower.
He thinks the bear market could hit bottom in 2010 or even 2011 or 2012. “5300 is the most probable low,” he says. But Fibonacci and Elliot Wave analysis — tools used by technical analysts — may point toward 3700-3800 as the ultimate bottom. Ouch.
Less gloomy
Another prominent technician isn’t quite that gloomy. Dan Sullivan, who has published “The Chartist” newsletter for four decades and has beaten the market consistently over the last 25 years, according to the “Hulbert Financial Digest,” advised clients to go 100% into cash as early as January 2008.
He, too, is looking for a 15%-20% rally that would take us into the 800s on the S&P 500, but then he says we’ll retest Monday’s S&P close of around 676.
“I think it’s a bear-market rally, so I’m advising subscribers to sell into the rally [or stay on the sidelines],” he tells me.
Like Shilling, he expects to see a market bottom or new buy signal some time during the summer. But for now, he says, “this is not a good time to buy.”
That’s my take, too. Although the Dow and S&P have lost more than half their value — no doubt the lion’s share of what we’re going to see in this bear market — I think we have more to go on the down side in view of the knotty problems we face.
So, if you’re young and saving for a distant retirement, this isn’t a bad time to make regular contributions to a 401 (k) plan.
But if you’ll need that money sooner, I’d keep my powder dry, and wait for those who really got it right to change their minds.
Howard R. Gold is executive editor of MoneyShow.com. The opinions expressed here are his own. End of Story
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Joe Foster: Chemistry Is Good For Gold – Seeking Alpha

Source: SeekingAlpha and The Gold Report


In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, geologist Joseph M. Foster—a Van Eck Associates portfolio manager who also leads its International Investors Gold Fund—sees nothing but good news for gold in the months and years to come. Joe isn’t holding his breath for mania to set in, but he does see a mix blending that will get gold “firing on all cylinders.” Once a declining dollar, increasing inflation and an improving economy fill the combustion chamber, all it will take is a sustained spark of optimism for gold to forge ahead.
The Gold Report: We appreciate the opportunity to talk with you fresh from site visits in Mexico and the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference in Florida. What do you see for gold in ’09 and ’10?
Joe Foster: Our outlook is quite favorable. We’re into a new phase of this bull market that’s been going on since 2001. The credit crisis, everything that’s happening to the global economy and the reaction of the governments and the monetary authorities set up a very, very positive environment for gold, not only in the near term, but going out many, many years.
TGR:What launched this the new phase?

JF: Earlier in the cycle, it was more an inverse dollar play. We’ve had a bull market in gold. The dollar had embarked on a bear market and gold reacted to the inverse of that. What’s changed is that the level of risk to the financial system has elevated dramatically and we’ve come into an environment where even if we have a strong dollar, we can also have a strong gold price. Investors are genuinely frightened and it’s brought a whole new dynamic to the gold market.

TGR:Where do you see this taking gold?

JF: I’d have to split it into a near-term and a longer-term outlook. First of all, looking at the near term, gold is finding support now because we are in crisis mode. The financial system has not been fixed yet. The economy is in decline. In that environment, investors are seeking gold as a safe haven. They’re also seeking out the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. So that’s creating investment demand for the metal.

Jewelry demand, however, has fallen off a cliff—it’s almost non-existent right now and a lot of scrap is coming into the market. Two dynamics in the gold market are pulling against each other: strong investment demand and very weak jewelry demand. I would see gold somewhat range-bound as long as we’re in crisis mode, being pulled by these two factors. We test $1,000, we pulled back, we’re sitting here around $940 an ounce. It wouldn’t surprise me to see it range-bound between $800 and $1,100 an ounce for the next six months or so until we see some sort of resolution to the situation.

As we look further out, you have to wonder if everything the government is doing will work and whether the laws of unintended consequences play out down the road. Will all this stimulus create inflationary pressure looking out into 2010 and beyond as the economy starts to get back on track? I happen to think it will. At some point, it will come time for the government to withdraw the liquidity they’ve put in the system. However, I think we’ll be in a slow-growth environment that will make that very, very difficult.

We won’t have the access to credit that we had in the past. Credit creation fueled a lot of the growth over the last decade. That will be missing in the next growth phase, so I think we’ll be faced with a low-growth environment that will make it difficult for the Fed to raise rates and rein in liquidity. As the velocity of money begins to pick up when the economy starts to grow a bit, I think we will see some serious inflationary pressures. That will give gold the next leg to stand on and lift it to the next level, which I think will be much higher than what we’ve seen so far.

TGR: In essence, aren’t we going back to an inverse play based on the U.S. dollar? That was the first phase. Now we’re in this crisis phase. As we move into an inflationary era, aren’t we just hedging against the dollar at that point?

JF: Yes, that’s another aspect of what I’m talking about, too. How does the dollar play out in this scenario? As long as we’re in crisis mode, people think of the dollar as a safe haven. As soon as we see a bit of light at the end of the tunnel, equities and other investments will begin to attract investment dollars. At that point, I think money flows out of the dollar. So the dollar could resume its downward trend with a better economic outlook and that would be positive for the gold market.

TGR:So we’d go back to dollar going down, gold going up.

JF: Yes, back to that situation. And then when you layer some inflationary expectations on that, you get gold firing on all cylinders.

TGR:Is that when we begin to see mania or is that the next phase?

JF: As markets go, there probably will be a mania in the gold market as well, but I would guess that’s a number of years off. Who knows? But at least several years off.

TGR: What will trigger the mania? If we’ve made it through the banking and financial and economic crises, and are looking for money to fly back into equities and devalue the dollar, why is mania several years off? Why wouldn’t it be happening as these other shifts begin to occur?

JF: The economy needs to be doing better. Money is too tight. I just don’t think there’s enough liquidity, frankly, to support a mania in the current environment. We need a more positive economic environment to get a true mania going and pull everybody from mom and pop up to the high net worth investors to the institutions, everybody jumping in with both feet. I don’t think there’s enough liquidity in the system at this point, or perhaps it’s all on the sidelines.

TGR: How interesting. So maybe fear won’t spark the mania. You’re almost saying the mania will start when there’s a little bit more optimism.

JF:That’s right, if it happens it will probably occur with more optimism and more entrenched inflationary expectations.

TGR:When you talk about gold, are you talking about bullion or gold stocks?

JF: I’m talking about both, definitely. There’s a different dynamic playing out with the gold stocks because we have to look at earnings and operating risk and political risk and all these other things, but historically there’s been a very high correlation between gold and the gold shares, and I expect that to continue throughout this market.

TGR:Will we see more of that in inflation or in crisis mode?

JF: As far as gold shares go, their crisis was the second half of 2008. They got caught up in the downdraft of the credit crisis and the equities collapse. The stocks have roughly doubled since they bottomed in October of 2008. Gold is up roughly 25% to 30% and we’re seeing money come into the gold sector. A lot of equity financing amongst the gold companies lately tells you there are investment dollars available to the sector. So I think the gold market and gold equities are out of crisis mode. They’re being recognized as an alternative, as a safe-haven hedge.

TGR:And an inflation play, I imagine.

JF: Yeah. The inflation play, or at least a flavor of it, will be with us. People see the Fed printing money to support the financial system, which creates a level of inflationary fear already—and it’s very, very early days. Then the next phase will be if and when we get evidence that inflation is actually taking place, when we see various economic measures telling us that inflation is starting to pick up. Those fears will intensify then. Even though we’re in a deflationary environment at the moment, the seeds of inflation it are already there.

TGR:How do you see silver reacting relative to gold?

JF: Looking at its performance over the last three or four months, I think it’s shown itself to be a currency hedge and a currency alternative like gold. Silver had a tough time last year. It tumbled with the base metals. But again, since October, the performance has been good and we’re seeing high demand for the silver ETF, a shortage of coins and bars. So it’s acting as a currency alternative just like gold now.

TGR:What do you make of the shortage of the coins and the premiums to the spot price?

JF: It’s a small but growing corner of the market, so to me it’s an indicator of investor sentiment. It’s not that big a demand driver. When you look at the tonnage, it’s modest. But it tells me that the sentiment among investors, especially individuals, is very positive. From what I hear, it’s mainly high net worth individuals who are buying the stuff up with a long-term view. It’s quite a leap to go out and invest in physical gold. If a few are actually doing it, then many, many more are probably considering it.

TGR:Would you like to talk about some companies you currently own and think other investors should be considering?

JF:

Growth is a common theme among the larger companies that we overweight. We like a growth story because good news flow comes with growth. Hopefully, we can find managements that can deliver the growth and meet expectations for production and costs. Among the large caps, one of our favorites in that category would be

Goldcorp

(GG). They’re mining mainly throughout the Americas. Most of their mines are in politically safe areas. They’re great operators and are developing some deposits—one in Mexico, called Penasquito; and the other one in a JV with

Barrick Gold Corporation

(ABX) in the Dominican Republic, called Pueblo Viejo. They’re going to drive Goldcorp’s growth for the next several years, and we see some good numbers coming out of Goldcorp looking forward.

TGR:And moving down the ladder?

JF:Going down into the mid-tier group, I guess Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD) would be our favorite in that category. Their operations are in West Africa. Randgold’s growth has come organically, which is really the best kind of growth. They discovered the properties where they’re mining and developing, and that’s the cheapest way to add ounces to the portfolio. Currently they’ve got a developing property in Senegal, which is early days but we see it turning in to a significant mine. Perhaps looking out three or four years, that will add significantly to their bottom line. It’s another internal discovery, so very cheap ounces coming on line for that company. Also, we’ve been to West Africa and Randgold is probably the best connected, knows the Continent probably better than any other company out there. So they’re one of our top mid-tier companies.

Going down to the small caps, we’re seeing exciting plays in several areas with the small caps, mainly in the Americas, particularly Canada. There’s been a resurgence of activity in Canada in some of the old mining camps. We’re seeing new discoveries and new developments that we’re very excited about. Mexico and other parts of Latin America look very favorable to us as well.

In Canada, one of the emerging producers would be Lake Shore Gold Corp (LSGGF.PK). In the Timmins camp, they’ve made a discovery where nobody thought to look before. And Timmins is historically one of the largest producing camps in North America, so there’s still gold to be found there. Lake Shore is developing an underground mine there that we think will be very profitable and should come on line over the next couple of years.

Another Canada small cap is Osisko Mining Corp (OSKFF.PK). They’re in the Val d’Or camp, an old mining camp. They’ve found a very large low-grade deposit that they’re developing there and I guess it will be the first large-scale, low-grade, world-class deposit that’s been developed in Val d’Or. The company just raised enough money to develop it. It’s going to be expensive, costing north of a half a billion dollars, but investors have shown confidence in the company and that they raised over $300 million just this month to build it. They’re well on their way to becoming the next gold producer.

TGR:Does Osisko have a 43-101 on that Val d’Or property?

JF: Yes, it has. After going through several iterations of their resource estimate, more recently they found a new zone they call the Barnett Zone. It’s higher grade than what they’ve found in the past, so it appears to be shaping as a sweetener that will enable them to get a more rapid payback once they begin production. The project is getting better as it moves along.

TGR:Does your website list the stocks you’re invested in?

JF: We publish the full portfolio twice a year with our semi-annual and annual reporting, so for the most recent you’d have to pull up our December 2008 report. Also, our website publishes our top 10 every month.

TGR:Do we do that through the site or we can find that on the site?

JF:Just go to vaneck.com and you can bring up a PDF. (http://vaneck.com/sld/vaneck//offerings/factsheets/IIG_Factsheet.pdf )

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Be cautious out there, especially if going back into Stocks (even mining stocks), do your due diligence and stay tuned for more of the best news and views personally handpicked for my most valued readers! – Good Investing! – jschulmansr

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Claim a gram of FREE GOLD today, plus a special 18-page PDF report; Exposed! Five Myths of the Gold Market and find out:

·        Who’s been driving this record bull-run in gold?

·        What Happens When Inflation Kicks In?

·        Why most investors are WRONG about gold…

·        When and How to buy gold — at low cost with no hassle!

Get this in-depth report now, plus a gram of free gold, at BullionVault

 

 

=========================================================

A new site that is in pre-launch state that will become a virtual world – chat, shop, play, videos, etc. Anyways they are giving free shares (that should become actual company shares) to anyone who signs up and more shares if you refer people.

 

 

 

 

Nothing in today’s post should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other investments; it is presented for informational purposes only. As a good investor, consult your Investment Advisor/s, Do Your Due Diligence, Read All Prospectus/s and related information carefully before you make any investing decisions and/or investments. –  jschulmansr

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investment gurus are lining up to call the bottom of the market. Anthony Bolton of Fidelity International did so last week, telling delegates at a pensions conference markets were at or near lows.

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